One thing we have seen underscored in 2025 is that the bond market can change its mind very quickly, particularly as it relates to policy emanating from Washington, D.C. Following President Trump’s election win, the dominant theme in the U.S. Treasury (UST) arena was that his Administration’s policies would lead to higher budget deficits, increasing UST supply and, ultimately, higher rates for maturities like the 10-Year yield.
Stocks rebounded on Wednesday as core inflation in the United States came in below consensus expectations and news of a possible 30-day truce in the Russia-Ukraine war emerged. Big tech stocks also recovered after flirting with bear-market territory earlier this week.
During the onset of the COVID crisis, I made a note to myself to write an update in five years to discuss what happened to the markets since that trying period of time. This week, I received a task alert in Salesforce reminding me to write that update.
News headlines this week have been dominated by recession fears in the U.S., with the S&P 500 and the Magnificent 7 shedding value. Yet, amid this rising uncertainty, a positive story is emerging—the performance of European markets.
It took just 16 trading sessions for US stocks to tumble into a correction, leaving a frazzled Wall Street asking just how long the “adjustment period” White House officials have warned about will last.
Markets will be laser focused on Federal Reserve policy and economic projections next week, looking for signs about where interest rates are heading.
Ben Inker and John Pease look at the economics of trade and tariffs at a theoretical level and explain why broadly applied tariffs are a needlessly economically way to achieve U.S. goals.
News related to tariffs, DOGE, geopolitical unrest, NVIDIA earnings, and more significantly impacted U.S. stock markets recently, with the S&P 500 retreating over 2.5% during the second half of February. There are signs that meaningful structural shifts are taking place in the market.
The 60/40 portfolio, where 60% is invested in stocks and 40% in bonds, is the initial starting point for many portfolios. The exact asset mix is often adjusted based on an investor’s time horizon, risk tolerance, and financial goals, but the simple, proportional stock-bond combination is what is often considered a “balanced” portfolio.
US stocks gained after a volatile session as dip buyers emerged after a cooler-than-forecast February inflation report.
There have been few winning strategies to seek refuge in as the stock rout sparked by President Donald Trump’s start-stop tariff war drags on for a third week.
The risk of a recession in the U.S. is not zero. This is particularly true as the current Administration tackles Government bloat and implements tariffs. However, before we discuss why the risk of a recession could increase, it is crucial to remember the 2022 experience.
Germany is newly motivated to reconsider its fiscal restraint.
In a world of rich valuations and heightened geopolitical uncertainties, we believe Japanese equities are well positioned to deliver attractive returns.
Stock/bond divergence allows investors to reap the benefits of portfolio diversification, giving bond exchange-traded funds credence.
US consumer prices rose at the slowest pace in four months in February, offering some reprieve ahead of tariffs that are expected to drive costs higher.
President Donald Trump’s 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports came into force Wednesday, triggering concern across export-reliant Asia and immediate reprisals from the European Union and Canada as the global trade war enters a rocky phase.
Treasuries fell despite evidence of cooler-than-expected US inflation as the data ignited a rebound in stock prices that eroded demand for bonds.
President Donald Trump is attempting the most sweeping transformation of government and policy in decades. The White House is moving furiously to slash spending, expand tariffs, repeal regulations and rewrite tax rules.
As we wade into March, market volatility is at the forefront, leaving investors grappling with uncertainty surrounding tariffs and mixed economic signals. Though the S&P 500 experienced a bounce towards February's end, it slipped 1% overall, revealing lingering challenges for iconic tech stocks and the broader equity landscape.
As the consumer goes, so goes the U.S. economy. Consumers make up roughly 70 percent of U.S. GDP.
Volatility across financial markets has become a persistent theme in 2025. The recent volatility has stemmed from a range of factors, including:
This video looks at the 10-year Treasury yield's historical trends since 1962, exploring its relationship with key economic indicators like the Fed Funds Rate (FFR), inflation, and the S&P 500.
As Donald Trump’s tariffs send markets into a tailspin, pressure is mounting on the president to speed up his main proposal for juicing the economy: a sweeping tax bill.
US Treasuries surged and investors boosted their bets on Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts Monday as fear of a economic slowdown took hold across US markets.
At the start of the year, our Investment Strategy Committee outlook was positive for both the economy and the equity market, supported by strong consumer, labor market, and corporate fundamentals.
Trade policy clarity is a long way off.
It is true that tariffs are a tax. It is also true that tariff policies have been volatile…on and off again…different carve outs…different countries…phone calls that change things. All of this clearly has an impact on the market. So, we are not surprised to see stock market volatility.
Investor’s bearish sentiment has surged to levels that generally align with previous market corrections and crashes.
WEIRDness provides rewards – wealth, the pursuit of happiness, political freedom – that should cause it to succeed, over the long run, in the Darwinian competition between social systems that we call “history.” I hope it wins. WEIRD is good.
One of the bond market’s favorite trades is getting fresh momentum in Europe, as the worst rout in German bonds in more than two decades propels selling of long-term debt.
A chorus of Wall Street strategists is warning about rising volatility in the stock market, with Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson the latest to sound the alarm on slumping economic growth amid President Donald Trump’s trade wars.
Emerging-market stocks declined for a second day and currencies halted a four-day rally as concerns grew that China’s deflation is spreading to its consumer economy and Donald Trump’s tariffs threaten US growth.
A lack of affordability has hindered housing transactions the past two years, frustrating would-be buyers and, more recently, hammering the stocks of developers.
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its policy meeting next week, shifting the market’s focus to signals about what comes next.
Last week's economic reports presented a narrative similar to what we’ve seen over the past few months: growth coupled with concerns.
I will again join forces with Ed Easterling of Crestmont Research to explore this data more deeply. Currently we have several powerful trends that have combined to create a nirvana-like market.
The European Central Bank will likely continue to cut interest rates, but future decisions could be more contentious.
On March 4, 2025, the Trump administration imposed tariffs of 25% on Canada and Mexico and increased tariffs on Chinese imports to 20% from the previous 10% imposed earlier in the year.
We highlight some underreported positive developments that could keep economic growth on track and support higher equity prices in the months ahead.
Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said the neutral level for the central bank’s policy rate had likely risen since the Covid-19 pandemic.
Cambria Investments CIO and founder Meb Faber explores David Swensen’s legendary investment strategy at Yale’s endowment, comparing its long-term performance to traditional portfolios and examining whether individual investors can replicate its success.
Q4 company earnings offered a lot to cheer at the start of the year, even as U.S. stocks contended with bouts of volatility.
One month into President Donald Trump’s new term, financial markets are adjusting to a rapidly shifting economic and policy environment. Investors are watching closely as tariffs, interest rate expectations and regulatory changes take center stage.
Volatility is back in town. Tariff jitters and concerns about growth and inflation have resulted in an S&P 500® dip and the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) jumping above 20. Investors grapple with a very sanguine backdrop painted by the fourth-quarter earnings season and policy uncertainty.
Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio’s famous “All Weather” strategy has arrived in the exchange-traded fund market, just as the kind of macro-driven turmoil it seeks to guard against sweeps global assets.
The world’s recent experience of faster inflation may make it harder for central banks to control prices in future, former US Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke said.
China has taken an important symbolic step toward addressing a persistent drag on its economy.
Opportunities have increased significantly in frontier markets debt as more countries have made a conscious effort to open their capital markets to international investors and currencies have become more fairly valued.
