Higher interest rates, a stronger dollar and Donald Trump: three reasons to avoid emerging-market (EM) debt? Not necessarily. Rising rates seem to be signaling faster growth, and that’s good news for many EM bonds and currencies.
With Donald Trump about to be sworn in as US president, markets in Asia are nervous about some of his policies, especially on trade. Investors who are alert to these policies’ likely limitations could find attractive opportunities.
I gave you my own thoughts last week (see “Skeptically Optimistic”). Today we’ll review several other forecasts from people who deserve your attention. Of necessity, I must leave out some good ones, but I think the ones I cover will give you plenty of useful information.
One of the attempted barbs tossed my way at various points in the past 20 years is “Cassandra.” Frankly, I kind of like it.
Look at what President-elect Donald Trump’s pledge to lower taxes and slash regulations is doing to business optimism here in the U.S. Last month, the Index of Small Business Optimism soared a phenomenal 7.4 points to 105.8, its highest reading since 2004. The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB), which conducts the survey, reported that attitudes toward capital spending and job creation in particular surprised to the upside. Research firm Evercore ISI called it a “blowout report,” and I have to agree.
The search for investment portfolio returns is not going to get any easier in 2017 against a backdrop of record U.S. equity prices, narrow credit spreads and low bond yields.
As the markets close the books on another tumultuous year, Neil Dwane, Global Strategist for Allianz Global Investors, says investors should keep watch on the rise of populist politics, China’s re-emergence as a global growth engine and a renewed focus on government spending as interest rates remain low.
Chinese local interest rates rose substantially late last year, and many bond offerings have been canceled, creating financial strain for some Chinese companies.
The last few days of 2016 have receded amidst continued pain for Asia's markets. Matthews Asia CIO Robert Horrocks, PhD, reflects on the year that began with a rally in Asia's equity and fixed income markets, but it ended in a slump.
Strong future growth is rooted in some basic dynamics in which Asia Pacific excels.
Factors ranging from China’s evolving economy to the rise of nationalism combined to make 2016 a year that will not be quickly forgotten.
In just a few decades, Vietnam has undergone a dramatic transformation, from an agrarian society to one that has embraced the modern era. Its youthful population and growing middle class have helped drive solid growth—and opportunities for many global investors.
2016 played host to the unexpected with the U.S. presidential election and Brexit vote. 2017 will bring its own events that could have consequences for global markets.
The nascent recovery in emerging markets has been thrown into question by Trump’s election. While the concerns warrant attention, we still see compelling reasons to invest in developing economies.
When America pursued “America first,” policies in the 1920s and 1930s, it brought on the Great Depression and helped sow the seeds of World War II. If US President-elect Donald Trump shifts US geopolitical strategy similarly toward isolationism and unilateralism, there is little reason to expect a better outcome.
Instead of trying to answer questions about the future, I’ll try to list those we should be asking as 2017 opens. These are the things that I sit and meditate about when I consider the future of economics, markets, and investing. Today’s economy is something like an old-fashioned Swiss watch. It’s a thing of beauty when all those delicate little gears mesh just right. If you ever take the time to actually study the inner workings of the marvelous manifestations of human ingenuity that keep us all alive, it is difficult not to come away awestruck by the ability of the human mind to craft such complexity. But if any of the gears get just a little out of whack, the entire contraption can grind to a halt.
At a time when the US is poised to turn inward, China’s economic performance is more important globally than ever. Whether China can achieve sustainable growth patterns in the coming years will depend on several key factors, the most important being internal
During his campaign, Trump took a restrictive trade stance that could hurt export-reliant countries in Asia—particularly China. But with continued rebalancing and a regional focus, Stefan Scheurer, economist with Allianz Global Investors, says China's influence in Asia could grow even bigger.
Investors have been drawn to real assets in general and to real estate in particular due to the comparative stability and attractiveness of their income returns and the prospects for growth.
What’s ahead for emerging markets in 2017? Stephen Dover, managing director and CIO of Templeton Emerging Markets Group and Franklin Local Asset Management, and Mark Mobius, executive chairman of Templeton Emerging Markets Group, present their emerging-market equity outlook.
The US has outperformed the MSCI World Index by over 26% since the 3/9/2009 low while the rest of the developed world has dramatically underperformed.
My colleague Carlos Hardenberg shares his perspective on the opportunities and challenges he sees in emerging markets today and as we head into 2017.
The 200-day correlation between US stocks and the MSCI World Index is currently 45%. This is the second lowest level since 2008. The only time the 200-day correlation was lower was in July 2014.
In Part 1 of this report, published on November 21, we discussed the geography of the Philippines and examined the nation’s history, focusing on its relations with the U.S. In Part 2 of this report, we will discuss President Rodrigo Duterte’s recent foreign policy decisions and their impact on U.S. policy in the region.
The aggregate market cap of our entire developed world index, GKCI DM, has remained mostly in the range of $35-40T over the last few years, after surpassing the $35T level (previously reached in 2007) in late 2013.
While I can’t always respond to each of your questions directly, I do enjoy hearing from my readers and followers and value your feedback.
As we look toward 2017, the general near-term outlook for international equities continues to appear somewhat mixed, given a combination of global macroeconomic risks.
Like many others, I was surprised by the results of the election. I guess I was persuaded by the polls that indicated that Hillary Clinton would win, even though the spread had shrunk to something within the margin for error.
It has certainly been a good couple of weeks for financial stocks. But the good times still haven’t been good enough to bring bank stocks out of last place among 24 developed market industry groups.
The board’s expertise constitutes a valuable input into our investment process.
President-elect Donald Trump promises that one of his very first actions when in office will be to withdraw the United States from the controversial Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), which was finalized earlier this year but must still be ratified by all of the participating nations.
A year ago, profits for companies in the S&P had declined 15% year over year (yoy). The consensus believed this signaled the start of a recession in the US. How has that dire prognosis worked out? In a word: terrible.
Many of the policies President-elect Trump discussed on the campaign trail align with current and past GOP tendencies but others seem diametrically opposed to GOP DNA.
More than one out of five developed market stocks and more than two out of five emerging market stocks are in a bear market (down over 20% from a high) in the past 200 days.
In May, Rodrigo Duterte was elected president of the Philippines. An unconventional political figure, he is considered populist in the mold of Turkish leader Recep Erdogan or Indian PM Narendra Modi. Perhaps most controversially, Duterte has embraced China and rejected its long-standing ally, the US.
Abhay Deshpande founded Centerstone Investors and serves as the chief investment officer. He previously worked at First Eagle Investment Management with Jean-Marie Eveillard. In this interview, he discusses the opportunities he sees for his two recently introduced value funds.
After years of deriding the airline industry, Warren Buffett confirmed this week that his holding company, Berkshire Hathaway, has invested nearly $1.3 billion in four big-name domestic carriers: American, Delta, United and Southwest.
The U.S. bond market has retreated since the election. Long-term yields have risen by almost 40 basis points. It appears that the 30-year-old bull market in bonds is really over.
While the US election uncertainty may finally be behind us, whether and how pre-election rhetoric will ultimately be reflected in policy shifts remains unknown.
We all know that stocks are a leading indicator of economic growth and disappointingly recent breadth measures suggest that economic activity may slow over the next several months.
Is the election of Donald Trump the latest example, following on from the Brexit vote and the success of Bernie Sanders and non-mainstream candidates in Europe, of a global trend in demagoguery and isolationism that will sweep all in its path, including the economies of Asia?
Donald Trump, the first president in U.S. history to gain the presidency without having been previously elected to office or served in the military, is something of an unknown.
The election is over but some uncertainty remains, which means bouts of volatility are likely to persist. The Fed is likely to hike rates in December but uncertainty about the path of rates in 2017 will persist. Additional uncertainty may come from elections around the world, with the potential for a continuation of surprising outcomes that could rattle markets at times.
Like their British counterparts, who voted in June to cut ties with the European Union (EU), American voters resoundingly rejected globalism this week, calling into question the United States’ involvement in military alliances such as the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)—which is 72 percent funded by U.S. tax dollars--and international trade deals, from the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) to the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).
A mistake many in my profession have made in the past year has been underestimating the difference between overall economic performance and its translation to the fortunes of constituents. This was at the heart of the Brexit vote last June and was the driving force behind yesterday’s U.S. outcome.
As 2016 draws to a close and a Fed hike looms, where should investors hunt for yield now? Terry highlights the case for three income-yielding asset classes.
