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In Defense of 2%
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 10/30/15
The October release of the consumer price index (CPI) is used to set cost-of-living adjustments for Social Security recipients.

Schwab Market Perspective: Bulls, Bears…and Hippos?
by Liz Ann Sonders Brad Sorensen Jeffrey Kleintop of Charles Schwab, 10/28/15
When trying to describe our view of the market, we realized that bullish and bearish were quite limiting and could cause confusion. Bullish, for example, could mean anything from skyrocketing markets to very modest gains—one word, very different environments. So, we are introducing a new animal descriptor that should more accurately describe our view of the stock market—the hippo. While not initially obvious, we think this is the perfect descriptor, and who doesn’t love hippos?

On My Radar: I’m Rooting For Ray
by Steve Blumenthal of CMG Capital Management Group, 10/28/15
There is a great deal of research around investor behavior. For example, our brains notice when a group provides an answer that is different from ours, the disparity is unpleasant. For many, aligning with the group is more rewarding for the brain than being independent and correct.

Weighing the Week Ahead: Will the Fed Put the Brakes on the Breakout?
by Jeffrey Miller of NewArc Investments, Inc., 10/26/15
The week ahead is loaded with data reports and earnings news. The FOMC has another meeting and rate decision. It occurs in the context of a nice stock rebound. The punditry will be asking: Will the Fed put the brakes on the breakout?

Dan Fuss: Rates Will Rise (and so will taxes)
by Robert Huebscher, 10/26/15
If there truly were a “bond king,” it would not be Bill Gross or Jeffrey Gundlach. It would be Dan Fuss, whose tenure in the fixed-income markets has spanned more than half a century. In a talk last week, Fuss warned investors to expect higher interest rates along with higher taxes.

Inspiration from the World of Sports
by Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital Management, 10/23/15
An angle on the investing/sports analogy has occurred to me: an investment career can feel like a basketball or football game with an unlimited number of quarters. We may be nearing December 31 with a substantial year-to-date return or a big lead over our benchmarks or competitors, but when January 1 rolls around, we have to tackle another year. Our record isn’t finalized until we leave the playing field for good. Or as Yogi Berra put it, “It ain’t over till it’s over.” It was Yogi’s passing in late September that inspired this memo.

Follow the Leaders: Learning from ETFs, BCA and the New PM
by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors, 10/23/15
Yesterday I had the pleasure of attending an intensive daylong ETF conference in Austin, just up the road from our office in San Antonio. Hosted by Cantor Fitzgerald, the conference was designed for institutional investors.

Weighing the Week Ahead: Can Strong Housing Data Give An "All Clear" Signal for the U.S. Economy?
by Jeff Miller of NewArc Investments, Inc., 10/19/15
It is a very unusual week for data, with many of the major housing reports on tap and not much else. China’s GDP will be a big story over the weekend, and important earnings news will continue. Despite this, pundits will turn their attention to housing, asking: Can a housing rebound signal “all clear” for the U.S. economy?

Is Reserve Bank of India ignoring household inflation expectations?
by Ritesh Jain, Abhishek Sonthalia of Tata Asset Management, 10/17/15
Inflation expectations has played an important role in the monetary policy framework of RBI governor Raghuram Rajan. But this seems to be changing; in its interest rate easing path, RBI has cut policy rates twice on high and rising household inflaitonary expectations including the 50 bps bazooka rate cut which Dr. Rajan delivered in his last monetary policy meeting in September 2015. Is the RBI abandoning inflationary expectations in its monetary policy framework?

Will Gold Finish 2015 with a Gain?
by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors, 10/17/15
After its stellar performance this week, gold might do something it hasn’t done since 2012—that is, end the year in positive territory. You can see past returns for yourself in our perennially popular Periodic Table of Commodities Return.

Market Overview Q315
by David Robertson of Arete Asset Management, 10/16/15
Turmoil in the third quarter signaled some important changes that are going to require investors adopt new playbooks in order to succeed.

Hoisington Quarterly Review and Outlook – 3Q2015
by Van Hoisington, Lacy Hunt of Hoisington Investment Management, 10/16/15
Future business activity will reflect two economic realities: 1) the over-indebted state of the U.S. economy and the world; and 2) the inability of the Federal Reserve to initiate policies to promote growth in this environment.

Catalonia, a New State within Europe?
by Kaisa Stucke of Confluence Investment Management, 10/14/15
“Catalonia, a new state within Europe” is the slogan of the pro-independence movement in the Spanish region of Catalonia. The federal government has made it clear that it will not hold secession negotiations and, in fact, even holding an independence referendum is considered unconstitutional. This week, we look at the separatist movement in Catalonia, starting with a brief overview of the region’s history and politics. We explore the probability of independence, the potential future relationship between the region and the central government, and the roles of the EU and the Eurozone.

Weighing the Week Ahead: Earnings recession coming? Does it matter?
by Jeff Miller of NewArc Investments, Inc., 10/14/15
Despite a full slate of data, continuing international events, Washington maneuvering, and a possible record in Fed speeches, a new subject will command attention this week: Will there be an earnings recession, and should we worry?

US Equity and Economic Review: Will the Rebound Last, Edition?
by Hale Stewart, 10/14/15
The main US news this week was not economic, but political: Kevin McCarthy withdrew his bid to become Speaker of the House. As of this writing, several candidates have announced their desire to seek the position, but there is no clear front-runner. This couldn’t happen at a worse time: within the next 60 days, the debt ceiling must be raised and Congress must vote on a budget. And the leadership vacuum is occurring when 3Q US growth is projected to be weak.

Emerging Market Debt: An End to the Agony?
by Jim Cielinski of Columbia Threadneedle Investments, 10/14/15
Capitulation by many EMD investors has created opportunities in many of the more resilient countries. We favor countries moving down the reform path and where there is significant impetus to reign in excessive government spending. Valuations have reached the extremes that allow a selective approach to EM to now represent a key part of an income-oriented portfolio.

Not The Time To Be Bubble-Tolerant
by John Hussman of Hussman Funds, 10/12/15
One of the important investment distinctions brought out by the speculative episode of recent years is the difference between the behavior of an overvalued market when investors are risk-seeking, and the behavior of an overvalued market when investors shift to risk aversion. The time to be tolerant of bubbles is when the uniformity of market internals provides clear evidence of risk-seeking among investors.

Smart Beta 2.0: A Disruptive Innovation
by Steven Vannelli of GaveKal Capital, 10/12/15
At the beginning of every major disruptive innovation, fear, uncertainty and doubt reign supreme. Consumers are fearful of the unknown, uncertain of the benefits and doubt the durability of the innovation. But, in the end, fear, uncertainty and doubt give way to confidence, understanding and acceptance. The fund management industry is on the cusp of a major disruptive innovation.

Unhealthy, Not Wealthy, and Far from Wise
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics, 10/10/15
In this week’s letter we’re going to take another look at healthcare trends. Healthcare is roughly 20% of the economy and every bit as impactful as the energy and food sectors.

Weighing the Week Ahead: What is Behind the Recent Market Volatility?
by Jeff Miller of NewArc Investments, Inc., 10/7/15
The recent market volatility has led to a lot of head scratching. Even the Pundit-in-Chief seems to be struggling to make his daily morning and evening observations fit with observed reality. With a light economic calendar and earnings reports just getting started market observers will be asking: What’s the cause of the market volatility?

As Growth Slows, Markets Seek Comfort in Old Friends
by Russ Koesterich of BlackRock, 10/7/15
BlackRock Chief Investment Strategist Russ Koesterich discusses the slowing global growth picture, and the implications of an even longer spell of low rates.

On My Radar: Defaults Will Breach the Historical High Next Year – The Fed is the “Wild Card”
by Steve Blumenthal of CMG Capital Management Group, 10/7/15
“The Fed is the “wild card” that has the power to determine how quickly the current credit cycle ends.” – Ed Altman

The Case for Gold to Protect Clients’ Wealth Shorting the Federal Reserve
by Michael Lebowitz, 10/5/15
This article presents the case for an asset that will help managers protect their clients and uphold their fiduciary duty owed to them. I’ll explain why gold is a powerful hedge that will protect your clients’ wealth, but first I’ll look at the history of trade and currencies and how gold evolved to become a global store of wealth.

US Equity and Economic Review For Sep. 28-Oct 2; The Bull Needs Stronger Earnings, Edition
by Hale Stewart, 10/5/15
This week’s economic news was mostly positive. Manufacturing is still expanding and consumers are still spending, especially on durable goods. But the stronger dollar and weaker international environment are clearly taking their toll, as the ISM is just barely in expansionary territory. The markets are in somewhat precarious shape as we enter earnings season; they remain expensive and therefore need to see topline revenue growth. Unfortunately, that doesn’t appear to be coming.

Recession Watch
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics, 10/4/15
If recovery from a banking crisis can take ten years and we are only seven years in, I expect (barring aliens) that we have a few more years to go. A slow, muddle-through recovery may not be exciting – but it’s better than the alternatives. As I noted at the beginning, I am quite worried about the possibility of a recession in our slow-growth, barely limping along at stall speed economy.

The 10 Most Competitive Countries in the World
by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors, 10/3/15
No new countries have entered or exited this exalted list, and there was very little rank-shuffling. For the seventh consecutive year, Switzerland is the most competitive country. For the fifth straight year, Singapore is number two. The U.S. comes in at number three for the second year. And so on.

The Hidden Cost of Zero Interest Rate Policies
by Laurence B. Siegel and Thomas S. Coleman, 9/28/15
Zero interest rates are a massive transfer of wealth from investors and savers to governments and other borrowers around the world. We’ll show how big the scale of the transfer is.

Valuations Not Only Mean-Revert; They Mean-Invert
by John Hussman of Hussman Funds, 9/28/15
Risk-seeking among investors can often defer the immediate consequences of extreme valuations, while vertical losses can suddenly emerge when extreme overvaluation is joined by increasing risk-aversion among investors (as evidenced by deterioration in broad market internals). In any event, investors should expect market overvaluation or undervaluation to be reliably “worked off” within a period of about 12 years, on average.

Nearing Normalization / Shutdown Shuffle – Part 2
by Scott Brown of Raymond James, 9/28/15
Fed Chair Janet Yellen downplayed concerns about the rest of the world and indicated that she was among the majority of Fed officials expected to raise short-term interest rates this year. Meanwhile, while John Boehner’s resignation as House Speaker may signal an agreement on the budget, Congress has moved further away from future compromise.

Weighing the Week Ahead: Will global weakness drag down the U.S. economy?
by Jeff Miller of NewArc Investments, Inc., 9/28/15
The recent Fed non-decision on interest rates increased worries about global economic weakness. Trading in commodity markets underscores a widespread perception of a potential recession. The week ahead is packed with fresh economic data, including the most important reports. The punditry will be asking: Will the U.S. economy succumb to global weakness?

How Will These Leaders of 4 Billion People Change the World?
by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors, 9/25/15
This week the U.S. played host to three prominent and illustrious leaders to billions of people: Chinese President Xi Jinping, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Pope Francis. Among them, they lead—either politically or spiritually—nearly 4 billion people worldwide, more than half of everyone living on the planet right now.

Developed Europe: Economy Trends Update July 2015
by Team of Thomas White International, 9/25/15
Euro-zone Sustains Recovery on the Back of Robust Growth in Italy, Export Surge in Germany

Goals-Based Asset Allocation in an Era of Financial Repression
by Thomas Shively of Eaton Vance, 9/25/15
Goals-based asset allocation seeks to align our total portfolio, including financial and nonfinancial assets, with our personal goals and our human way of thinking about risk.

In Search of the Phillips Curve
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 9/25/15
Macroeconomics students spend a good bit of class time learning about the Phillips curve, and it is probably etched permanently in their minds. The Phillips curve suggests that there is an inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment in the short run.

Are the Bulls Regaining Their Footing?
by Liz Ann Sonders, Brad Sorensen & Jeffrey Kleintop of Charles Schwab, 9/25/15
Uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve continues after its punt of rate hikes at its most recent meeting. But as the market gets more clarity on monetary policy and given a still-growing US economy, the bull market should slowly reestablish itself, albeit with bouts of volatility. Further support should come from global growth in areas that are net beneficiaries of the plunge in commodity prices.

It’s Not Easy
by Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital Management, 9/24/15
In 2011, as I was putting the finishing touches on my book The Most Important Thing, I was fortunate to have one of my occasional lunches with Charlie Munger. As it ended and I got up to go, he said something about investing that I keep going back to: “It’s not supposed to be easy. Anyone who finds it easy is stupid.”

Activate Your Portfolio
by Edward Perkin of Eaton Vance, 9/22/15
As the bull market ages and bouts of extreme volatility return, now may be the time for actively managed equity strategies.

Weighing the Week Ahead: Has the Fed Assumed a Third Mandate?
by Jeff Miller of NewArc Investments, Inc., 9/21/15
Despite many signs of economic improvement, the Fed chose to maintain policy accommodation at emergency levels. In a week that is light on data and long on speeches, this news will be enough to keep Fed policy at the forefront.

Here Are Two Ways Investors Can Take Advantage of the Fed's Uncertainty
by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors, 9/19/15
Although interest rates could still be hiked in one of the two remaining times the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets this year, I’m inclined to think they’ll stay near zero until at least 2016. The decision is a welcome one for both gold demand and new home purchases. When rates rise, gold becomes less attractive for some investors, who are encouraged to exchange their no-yielding gold for income-producing assets.

Upon Further Review: More Reflections on the Fed
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 9/19/15
The Federal Reserve has typically downplayed market expectations of inflation. These indicators emerge from trading in Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), which can be influenced by many things.

The China Syndrome: Lessons from the A-Shares Bubble
by Jason Hsu of Research Affiliates, 9/18/15
The rapid rise and sharp decline of the A-shares market represents a massive redistribution of wealth, especially painful to uninformed investors who bought hot stocks near the peak. What should the Chinese government do now?

It’s Someone Else’s Money
by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James, 9/16/15
Indeed, due to expensive valuations, lack of revenue/earnings growth, slow GDP, China, politics, etc., the stock market had been in a virtual stalemate paralysis until the middle of July, having crossed above/below “go” so many times the only way to make money was to erect a toll gate at “go” (think the game Monopoly). And no wonder, frustration has reigned through the first six months of the year.

China: Double, Double Toil and Trouble/Fire Burn, and Cauldron Bubble?
by Andy Rothman of Matthews Asia, 9/15/15
Many argue that China’s economy is descending into policy chaos and a witches’ brew, otherwise known as a hard landing. But perhaps tellingly, even during the recent A-share fall, Chinese consumers seemed to shrug off the drama and continued to spend. China’s recent economic developments can be seen as stumbles along the path toward growth rates that are continuing to decelerate (but are still quite fast) from an economy that is increasingly “rebalanced.” This latest issue of Sinology explores the thinking behind this non-consensus conclusion.

Weighing the Week Ahead: To Hike, or not to Hike?
by Jeff Miller of NewArc Investments, Inc., 9/15/15
After many years of standing pat on interest rates, there is finally a genuine chance of a shift in Fed policy. The punditry will be asking: To hike, or not to hike?

Describing Liquid Alts: Risk Parity
by Michael Breitenbach of Larkin Point Investment Advisors LLC, 9/15/15
The risk-parity portfolio technique offers an alternative portfolio construction methodology to heuristic rules such as “60/40” and traditional quantitative portfolio construction techniques such as mean-variance optimization. Proponents of risk-parity portfolios argue that the traditional 60/40 allocation historically has exposed investors disproportionately to equity market risk and that volatility in these historical returns has been driven primarily by variation in equity market prices.

On My Radar: Valuations, Forward Returns and Recession
by Steve Blumenthal of CMG Capital Management Group, 9/15/15
Of the nine market declines associated with recessions that started with valuations above the mean, the average decline was -42.8%. Of the four declines that began with valuations below the mean, the average was -19.9%”– Doug Short

Investing for Income: Meeting the Challenges of a Low Yield Environment
by Paul Reisz, Tina Adatia, Tanya Sanwal of PIMCO, 9/14/15
For many investors, generating a high and sustainable income stream is challenging in the current secular landscape, which PIMCO calls The New Neutral. Over the next three to five years, we expect to see global economies converging to modest trend growth rates as central banks are constrained to set policy rates at levels well below those that prevailed before the financial crisis.

On The Economy, Inflation, China & Odds For Fed Liftoff
by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management, 9/9/15
The investment markets remain fixated on whether the Fed will hike interest rates for the first time in almost a decade on September 17. Stock market volatility spiked in late August and so far this month, with most global equity markets in “correction” territory. It remains to be seen if the latest stock market chaos will cause the Fed to delay lift-off until December or later.

Weighing the Week Ahead: Time to Revise Year-End Market Estimates?
by Jeff Miller of NewArc Investments, Inc., 9/9/15
Sometimes the calendar dictates the agenda. The Labor Day weekend marks the official end of a summer that was eventful for markets. The punditry will be asking: What is your (revised) EOY target for stocks?

On My Radar: A Bumpy Ride? How Bumpy? And For How Long?
by Steve Blumenthal of CMG Capital Management Group, 9/8/15
Volatility and uncertainty are nothing new in financial markets. QE4 may right the ship but that is the bet. No guarantees in this game.
Results 2,701–2,750 of 3,750 found.