The substantial economic calendar features inflation reports and housing, but also includes Michigan sentiment, the Fed’s Beige Book, and NFIB sentiment survey. We will also get the first earnings reports for the Q4 season.
On Tuesday of this week, the U.S. dollar experienced a “death cross,” a bearish signal that takes places when an asset’s 50-day moving average crosses below its 200-day moving average. We haven’t seen this from the greenback since May 2017.
Four reasons for optimism about emerging-market stocks despite their general underperformance and higher volatility over the last decade.
To be honest it shouldn’t matter where you stand on the climate change debate, the way I see it these are words that we should all take seriously, if for no other reason just in case. It is a call to action that we ignore at our own peril and that of untold future generations to come.
The outlook for the global economy has improved over the past three months, but there may be less capacity to combat a recession when it comes. We discuss seven key macroeconomic themes we expect in 2020 and implications for investors.
A combination of spread compression and reduced US Treasury base rates contributed to double-digit gains in the high yield corporate credit sector in 2019. However, unlike many years with similar returns, lower-quality, CCC-rated credits meaningfully lagged their higher-quality counterparts. At this point in the extended credit cycle, investors appear wary about the performance of lower-quality credits.
Welcome to the 2020s. Some weren’t sure we would make it this far, but we did. Now we face a new decade and new challenges. How we handle them will determine what kind of conversation we have in 2030.
The Grinch who stole Christmas is alive and well this year – in the U.S. Congress. Our representatives and senators passed a bill that negatively affects the middle and working class by changing the rules of passing an IRA to one’s heirs.
The economic calendar is normal in another week split by a holiday. Many market participants will not show up until Thursday – and perhaps not even then. The ISM reports, manufacturing and non-manufacturing, are both post-holiday. My guess is that the financial media will continue the attention to 2020 outlook ideas. Some reporters will take a look instead at events from the past decade.
To celebrate another great year of doing the work I do with my firm’s valued clients, this week’s column is devoted to resolutions I hope you are able to make and keep in your businesses.
Our senior investment leaders have a cautiously optimistic outlook for 2020. They still do not see a global recession looming and believe there are plenty of reasons to remain invested.
Sustainable investing has come a long way. In its early days, investment managers, like Saturna Capital, created faith-based investment processes, focused on excluding companies or industries that conflicted with the tenets of an investor’s faith. This led to proactive investing, often referred to as advocacy investing, a process that encourages companies, sectors, and regions to engage in better business practices.
Naturally, this is the time when market-watchers issue their forecasts for what may lie ahead, and my team is no exception. Simply put, we expect continued monetary policy accommodation with little fiscal stimulus. Therefore, we are more optimistic about capital markets than we are about the overall economy, and we favor risk assets over non-risk assets for 2020.
Read the latest Weekly Headings by CIO Larry Adam.
Despite Central Bank’s best efforts globally to stoke economic growth by pushing asset prices higher, the effect has been entirely consumed by those with actual savings, and discretionary income, available to invest.
Rates were unpredictable, central banks were active, trade was volatile but consumers were undaunted. We reflect on the major economic trends of 2019.
There is almost no willingness to face our top problems, specifically our rising debt. The economic challenges we face can’t continue, which is why I expect the Great Reset, a kind of worldwide do-over. It’s not the best choice but we are slowly ruling out all others.
The Key to Avoiding Obvious Mistakes Understanding how to value a business is the key to avoiding making obvious mistakes when purchasing or selling common stocks. When you know what your investment is worth, the market cannot take advantage of your gullibility.
Here are a few steps to separate a potential client from an existing advisor.
Much of the reaction to last week’s Inflationary Angst letter boiled down to, “Get government out of the way and the free market will work.” Others said the opposite: Government must help people even more than it already does. I wish it were that easy. Neither of those options are what we need, and today I will explain why.
A review of last month’s market-moving events across countries and asset classes.
Academic theory predicts that the volatility implied by the VIX index will be greater than the realized volatility. That difference can be thought of as an insurance premium investors are willing to pay because volatility tends to spike when stocks crash, as in the last bear market. New research confirms that investors can profit from this and that such a strategy is uncorrelated with other traditional sources of return.
Fear among bond investors is focused on rising rates, but Jeffrey Gundlach says you should worry about something more sinister. In his webcast yesterday, he also offered his updated 2020 presidential election prediction.
Positive returns across asset classes in 2019 may limit tax loss selling in closed-end funds, but we see potential long term value in select sectors where investors can still buy assets at a discount.
Over the course of 20+ years, families have been bamboozled into spending trillions on top-end colleges, while overlooking the fact that it's actually the academic major that is far more important.
U.S. stocks continue to trade near their all-time highs but recent hiccups in trade talks have re-emphasized that a deal remains elusive, decisively unpredictable, and incomplete. Key components of the first phase have yet to be put in writing and major structural issues—such as intellectual property theft and forced technology transfers—will remain unaddressed for the foreseeable future, confirming that little-to-no material progress has been made.
One of the best ways to “supercharge” your gold position is with precious metal royalty and streaming companies. Think Franco-Nevada, Wheaton Precious Metals, Royal Gold and others.
Many of you are planning an office move or renovation next year. Here’s a morsel of advice as you dial up your Corcoran realtor: Get an office without a conference room.
Yes, there is a downturn in the Global economy, numerous factors are combining together in what seems like a perfect storm of negativity to depress the global economy and quell even the hardiest of investors from any attempts at risk taking. Nothing could, or may I say should, be farther from the truth.
As Thanksgiving comes to an end, and the busy holiday shopping season begins, here are some need-to-know numbers you may have missed from this past week.
As the clock ticks toward 2020, the overall economic picture remains muddled. Ongoing trade tensions and slumping global growth have cast a cloud of uncertainty over the globe, and forward-looking return expectations continue to look less than impressive.
In the bond market, staying positive is easier said than done.
Key Points
Rick Rieder and Russ Brownback argue that – in contrast to the past decade of monetary policy lifting all economic boats at once – the years ahead are likely to be characterized by great dispersion between economies, industries and markets. Understanding that dynamic will be the name of the game for investment success.
The economic calendar is normal with a focus on housing. Some will be parsing the Fed minutes while others watch the impeachment hearings. This week’s topic may not be a media focus for the week ahead, but it gets constant attention. With a government shutdown and the debt ceiling on the agenda, let’s seize the moment and ask: Is it time to worry about debt? I suspect that many readers believe it is way past time!
The venture capital industry has created a robust pipeline of new public companies, but in our view discipline is the key to finding the best opportunities.
It’s easy to overlook government bonds today with yields so low. But their interest-rate sensitivity, or duration, can provide vital protection when riskier assets such as stocks and credit struggle.
Economic policy uncertainty and trade conflict may linger, but without a US recession, I do not anticipate significant further slowing in global growth.
If you’re an advisor looking to differentiate your practice from others, consider this article to be your first step toward a better understanding of impact investing.
In his latest book, Malcolm Gladwell turns to a theme that matters greatly to financial advisors – preventing financial fraud and abuse. It is part of his broader inquiry into how we can avoid placing our trust in the wrong people.
This is an absolute monarchy we’re talking about, after all, and so global investors should not expect to have any shareholder rights. Aramco’s board of directors will have a fiduciary duty to MBS and any future monarch, not to investors. This has some serious implications.
REIT investors can diversify through a fund or ETF tied to an index, such as the FTSE NAREIT Index. But new research shows that a factor-based approach will have superior risk-adjusted returns.
With global growth slowing and significant uncertainty around trade and politics, PIMCO’s Income Fund is taking the long-term view and positioning defensively.
Throughout the year we asked leading bond and currency managers to consider valuations, expectations and outlooks for the coming months.
How do I get my financial advisors to understand they don’t know everything about their clients?
Central banks use a common set of policy tools to achieve their inflation and employment goals – regulating the money supply and interest rates, and occasionally implementing measures such as quantitative easing. That toolkit can trace its origins to the intellectual contributions of David Ricardo, one of the earliest opponents of a gold standard.
This week’s Fed meeting started a pause in overnight rate cuts. But what will happen if yields on the long end move up?
The U.S. stock market has been hitting new all-time highs thanks to lower rates, positive earnings surprises and optimism that a resolution to the U.S.-China trade war comes sooner rather than later. But don’t let that distract you from exciting things that are happening in overseas markets, specifically in Eastern and Emerging European countries.
DOW 650,000 - Just recently CNBC ran an article touting Ron Baron's call for the Dow to reach that astronomical level in just 50-years. Problem is that the INDU should ALREADY be at 650,000 - why isn't it?
