Policymakers indicated that more interest rate cuts were likely in coming months.
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday began its policy easing with a bang. Much of the focus was on its decision to cut interest rates by half a percentage point from a two-decade high. But the key question for the bond market is where rates will land once all is said and done. Nobody knows for sure, and Chair Jerome Powell injected enough uncertainty to ensure a choppy ride ahead.
As the kiddos return to school, our fantasy football lineups are set, and the summer has ended, not only is the weather turning in the Northeast, but the inflation challenges are also cooling. The Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation gauge, the PCE, was released at the end of August and came in at 2.5% month-over-month for July.
Doug Drabik discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
Many investors understandably are wondering where Japan’s equity markets are heading. The market had a good year through June. After that it changed. The Bank of Japan's hawkishly delivered interest rate increase on July 31 preceded the release of weak U.S. economic data.
The Federal Reserve’s looming rate cuts are fueling a rally in the riskiest corner of the US corporate bond market, but some investors are concerned the party may not last.
Munis cemented their best “summer” since 2010 after another month of strong performance. Some near-term caution is warranted given that September has been historically challenging. Robust issuance ahead of the election should provide opportunities in the primary market.
The $8 trillion mortgage market can trigger big swings across fixed income when the Federal Reserve shifts interest rates, but investors say this time is different.
The yield curve measures the difference between short-term, intermediate-term, and long-term Treasury yields.
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to begin cutting interest rates at its September meeting. Market performance may depend on whether the pace of cuts is fast or slow.
The longest continuous yield curve inversion has finally come to an end. Or has it? The answer depends on how you measure it.
I have looked at market data on inflation expectations, Fed Funds futures, and other factors that influence interest rates. Today, I add an unorthodox factor to the list: cash cows.
The time has come! After the most aggressive tightening cycle in modern history, the Fed is ready to turn the page and begin dialing back its policy restraint after the second longest ‘on hold’ period (14 months) in history. Barring any surprises, the Fed should lower interest rates at its meeting next week—the first rate cut in over four years—in the hopes of preserving a soft landing for the economy.
BlackRock Inc. strategists turned underweight short-dated US Treasuries from overweight, saying the extent of Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts the market is betting on is unlikely to pan out.
Consumer staples are one of the sleepiest sectors of the US stock market. Investors buy them for their low volatility and generous dividends, not exhilarating upside potential. But lately, toothpaste, bleach and certain big-box food retailers seem to be acting like the new semiconductors.
Due to balance sheet concerns, the higher-for-longer interest rate environment has been a significant headwind for the relative performance of U.S. small-cap equities.
Certificates of deposit (CDs) and Treasuries both can offer steady, predictable investment income—but how to decide between them? Here are five factors to help you choose.
China’s bond traders defied signs of intervention to push sovereign yields to a record low, setting the stage for a showdown with authorities seeking to tame the blistering debt rally.
Investors are using their massive cash piles to lock in attractive yields in global bond markets, helping to limit losses in the asset class, according to Mohamed El-Erian.
How an election affects stock market performance depends more on how close and contentious it is than on whether the winner is Republican or Democrat, liberal or conservative.
While the pace of Federal Reserve cuts is in question, all roads lead to lower interest rates.
Balanced risks to inflation and employment indicate it’s time for the Fed to normalize interest rates, enhancing a positive backdrop for bonds.
Recent Fed commentary and economic data have crystallized investor confidence in rate cuts coming in less than a week
Gold climbed to a record after another faster-than-forecast US inflation print and an uptick in applications for unemployment benefits substantiated bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next week.
All signs point to a tough few months ahead for investors charting the dollar’s path, after the US presidential debate and a key inflation reading left markets anticipating heightened volatility through year-end.
Fed officials must recalibrate their policy stance to ensure the economy stays on solid footing to achieve that elusive soft landing they have been aiming for after their quest to quash inflation.
Here’s a quote attributed to P. J. O’Rourke, an American author, journalist and political satirist: “There is a simple rule here, a rule of legislation, a rule of business, a rule of life: beyond a certain point, complexity is fraud.”
US Treasuries rallied ahead of a closely watched inflation reading that could cement bets on the size of the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate cut this month.
Investors may find themselves prognosticating about future rates relative to current rates in an attempt to optimize their portfolio.
Investors weighing election risks ahead of the first US presidential debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are already a lot more jittery than they were before Trump and his onetime opponent, President Joe Biden, met onstage in June.
On the back of recent cooling in economic growth, an uptick in unemployment, and moderating inflation, the Federal Reserve (Fed) looks set to begin its rate-cutting cycle at its September meeting.
Part one of this series described the burgeoning bull steepening yield curve environment and what it implies about economic growth and Fed policy. It also discussed the three other predominant types of yield curve shifts and what they suggest for the economy and Fed policy.
Bond traders who struggled to predict how high the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates are finding the way down just as vexing.
Stock buybacks have boomed in recent years. With corporate cash flows remaining high and potential rate cuts from the Fed, the trend appears set to continue.
We are entering a time I think will include a deep crisis. We are going to need each other. We really do need to “find our tribe.”
ETFs saw a record number of inflows in August, including bond-focused funds, which are offering opportunities in corporate debt.
High-yield investors put off by today’s narrow spreads could be missing out.
The main focus for investors should is no longer if the Fed will cut rates in 2024, but how much and how quickly the Fed will lower interest rates.
Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said that while the August employment report wasn’t particularly poor, it did make predicting the size of the Federal Reserve’s likely interest-rate cut this month a tougher call.
After two days of record sales in the US blue-chip corporate debt market, another 11 companies are looking to sell bonds on Thursday, and demand for the securities is holding strong by key measures.
US hiring fell short of forecasts in August after downward revisions to the prior two months, a development likely to fuel ongoing debate over how much the Federal Reserve should cut interest rates.
Candidate tax policies could affect municipal bonds, but the bigger picture is important too.
We often write about the opportunity for fixed income investors to lock in relatively attractive long-term rates. And we would argue that investment consultants and financial advisors have no more important charge than to convince their clients to take advantage of this while they still can.
High interest rates have had the predictable effect of restraining the performances of dividend stocks and related exchange traded funds.
Private assets are the fastest-growing market in the financial world, but could be the most challenging field for ETF providers to penetrate.
A key segment of the US Treasury yield curve briefly turned positive as weaker-than-anticipated labor-market data bolstered bets on steep interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
Investors should be careful what they wish for in hoping for an aggressive Fed rate cutting cycle, given stocks tend to do better when cuts are slow and steady.
A bright spot in Chinese investment could spell trouble for its financial institutions.
After a decade of consistent outperformance, Japanese small caps began underperforming their large cap peers in 2018, a trend that has accelerated since 2023.
On this episode of the “ETF of the Week” podcast, VettaFi’s Head of Research Todd Rosenbluth discussed the JPMorgan Ultra-Short Income ETF (JPST) with Chuck Jaffe of “Money Life.” The pair talked about several topics regarding the fund to give investors a deeper understanding of the ETF overall.
