If trade policy were like a boxing match, the U.S. had hoped tariffs would be a decisive, knockout blow. While many of America’s trading partners reeled, they stayed on their feet and are wearing down their opponent.
In investing and life, spending your time on critical variables and what is really important directionally pays dividends. AI can legitimately reduce “task time” in the investment business, but it does not replace experience and judgement. Not having double-digit bodies running around also helps one focus.
This week, Burger King announced the first changes to its signature Whopper in nearly a decade. New premium bun. Creamier mayonnaise. A clamshell box instead of paper wrap that left the burger smashed before you ever opened it.
US bonds are wrapping up their best monthly performance in a year against a backdrop of rising global risks, with resurgent demand serving as proof that investors still see Treasuries as the premier haven in turbulent times.
Markets could face near-term volatility in the wake of the Supreme Court’s decision to strike down tariffs levied under the Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). The ruling creates a complex landscape as markets adapt to multiple unresolved issues, including raised global tariffs, investigations and potential refunds.
U.S. job creation has been weak despite resilient gross domestic product growth. Here's what may be going on.
Managers are strategically maintaining AI exposure toward memory and semiconductor supply chains, and rotating toward enterprise adopters while trimming crowded hyperscalers.
Global asset managers who collectively oversee more than $20 trillion of assets have grown more bullish across emerging-market equities, currencies, domestic bonds and credit, potentially offering fresh momentum to the sector’s record-busting rally.
Carry is an important return driver for multi-asset futures and forwards. Simple trend signals have benefited from trading in line with, not against, the carry of an asset.
The year got off to a cold start in the U.S., with many regions experiencing unusually freezing temperatures and precipitation. February has brought relief in both the weather and in economic reports.
Despite early volatility driven by global bond market stress, tariff-related tensions, renewed inflation concerns, and uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve leadership, equities finished January higher, with the S&P 500 reaching new all-time highs.
2026 may already be more than a month in, but advisors and investors are still quite keen to navigate the complex geopolitical market in order to find the most opportune investment opportunities.
In a notable shift for the start of 2026, the S&P 500 is experiencing a divergence in factor performance. Typically, high beta (aggressive, high-risk) and low volatility (defensive, safe-haven) factors sit on opposite sides of the seesaw. When one goes up, the other usually comes down.
The threat to software-backed businesses from artificial intelligence should prompt investors to shift focus from technology to companies that toil in the physical world, like miners, power producers and industrial firms, according to Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, global head of equities and chief investment officer for the Americas at UBS Wealth Management.
As the artificial intelligence (AI) transformation unfolds, Portfolio Managers Denny Fish, John Lloyd, and John Kerschner share their views on equity valuations, identifying the next wave of winners, and the impact on fixed income markets as companies aggressively raise capital to finance the AI boom.
The playing field presents broad opportunities for income investors today, with income and growth potential across asset classes. But an effective defense is also critical in capturing that potential. When it comes to the tools of the trade, we think broader is better.
Money – everybody wants it, but few actually have it. As shown in recent financial statistics, the “wealth gap” in America continues to grow between the “haves” and the “have-nots.”
Stripped to its essentials, finance is a race against time. What lies ahead of us is unknown, and the vast industry of banking and finance has developed to manage the risks that come with making commitments now that depend on an uncertain future.
Routine physical checkups are an important component of healthcare. A doctor can identify potential problems and coach the patient toward making healthier choices.
LPL Research’s Strategic Asset Allocation (SAA) sits at the center of our portfolio construction process because it defines how we expect diversified portfolios to generate more stable long‑term outcomes across shifting market environments. The SAA is the long‑term plan for how major asset classes work together in a portfolio.
The breadth of opportunities in 2026 is unlike anything we’ve seen since 2010. While markets remain fixated on crypto, AI, and speculation, leadership is already shifting toward more fundamentally strong, under-owned regions of the world.
Fourth-quarter GDP came in at 1.4%, a sharp markdown from early estimates that were inflated by a temporary collapse in the trade deficit.
The captains of artificial intelligence are an impatient lot. There’s good reason for the existence of the Silicon Valley cliché “move fast and break things.” They are certainly moving fast on the buildout of AI infrastructure, rolling out eye-popping spending budgets to buy computer chips and construct data centers to house them.
Get ready each week with high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
As we expected, the Supreme Court struck down most of the new tariffs President Trump had imposed since taking office thirteen months ago.
Given the divergence between the calm market surface and the volatility of its underlying stocks' returns, let's get a better grip on the market’s undercurrent and decipher what it may be trying to tell us.
The central theme of 2025 was the disconnect between market sentiment and economic reality. The year began with widespread apprehension regarding aggressive tariffs and forecasts of a recession.
“China is dumping US Treasuries to get out of the dollar.” This claim has been circulating the mainstream feeds lately, with the narrative that the “end of the dollar is near,” or “the US will lose its funding base,” and “bond yields will surge.” But are those claims valid? Such is what we will explore in more detail.
Is inflation rising or falling? Is unemployment solid or are there significant issues? Given the massive revisions of labor data, how can we base decisions on employment numbers? And what happens when the various collected data conflicts with themselves?
Investment strategy is never easy, but we have started this year with a remarkable confluence of shifting factors: technological, economic and geopolitical. Understanding how they will play out and interact becomes crucial to asset allocation.
While the Court did not explicitly order refunds to be paid — instead sending that decision to the lower courts — by some estimates this decision opens the door to potentially as much as $175 billion in tariff reimbursements to U.S. importers.
In recent editions of Macro Signposts, we’ve emphasized how U.S. policy changes coinciding with the emergence of a new general-purpose technology (AI) may be accelerating adoption and diffusion of that technology – while also driving economic adjustments.
The U.S. economy sent conflicting signals last week as a sharp deceleration in growth collided with unexpectedly stubborn inflation.
In a 6-3 decision, the highest court in the U.S. ruled that President Trump lacks the legal authority to impose sweeping tariffs. But the administration has a Plan B in place.
In a 6-3 decision on Friday, the U.S. Supreme Court struck down most of the tariffs implemented by the administration last year. Markets initially showed little reaction to the announcement, with U.S. equities rising by 0.3% while yields on the 10-year Treasury inched up by 2 basis points.
It’s been a busy start to the midterm election year in Washington, marked by a second government shutdown, rising geopolitical tensions - including Iran and Venezuela – and continued uncertainty around tariffs.
Today, the Supreme Court stripped away the Trump Administration's power to impose sweeping tariffs through emergency authority—but the battle over US trade policy is far from over.
Municipal bonds have posted strong performance so far this year, despite a news cycle that has many investors questioning the path forward.
It’s a short week for traders and portfolio managers, but a long one for those dissecting macro data points. FOMC Minutes hits before a slew of mid-tier economic updates on Thursday. Friday morning could be the big reveal, with growth and inflation numbers followed by bellwether business and consumer surveys.
There are two sides to the current stock market. One side, ignorance avoidance, requires us to know where the money is. The other side, stock selection, is to know where the money is going.
The rising dispersion in returns and relatively low correlation among S&P 500 stocks has become increasingly apparent on the CBOE S&P 500 Dispersion Index and the CBOE Three-Month Implied Correlation Index.
US equities rose Wednesday as a batch of reports confirming the strength of the American economy and a number of developments at the Big Tech giants reignited Wall Street’s excitement for the group.
All three major stock indices finished in the red last week as AI disruption fears continued to grow. The S&P 500, an index of large US companies, returned -1.3 percent for the week, making the index flat year to date.
This week’s economic releases have once again underscored the policy dynamics we outlined in our January outlook. President Trump faces a high-stakes midterm election in November, and the incentives are clear: deliver visible growth, moderating inflation, and lower borrowing costs to strengthen the administration’s hand with voters.
If you’re grading the economy based on real GDP, it looks pretty good; if grading based on jobs, not so much.
An early departure by Christine Lagarde could narrow the field of candidates vying to succeed her as European Central Bank president.
Four months ago, digital assets underwent what I believe was the most consequential liquidation event in their history. On October 10, 2025, over $19 billion in leveraged positions were wiped out within hours. Bitcoin plummeted from roughly $122,000 to $105,000. More than 1.6 million trader accounts were liquidated.
Browsing real-estate listings is a popular hobby. Home data portals provide hours of free entertainment. Some listings feature bizarre or ostentatious decoration; some are time capsules, preserving a bygone era. Most entries share one shocking feature: the price.
Last week delivered exactly what the market needed on the economic data front: confirmation that inflation continues to cool while the labor market remains firmly intact. The CPI came in softer than expected, finally reflecting the long-awaited deceleration in rental costs.
Stripping out more volatile food and energy prices, core CPI prices rose 0.3 percent month on month. The annual core CPI dropped from 2.6 percent in December to 2.5 percent, the lowest reading since April 2021.
