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Slow Growth and Short Tails
by Nouriel Roubini of Project Syndicate,
The global economy will grow faster in 2014 than it did in 2013, while tail risks will be lower. But, with the possible exception of the US, growth will remain anemic in advanced economies, and emerging-market fragility - including Chinas uncertain efforts at economic rebalancing - could become a drag on global growth.
Bitcoin Takes on Gold
by John Browne of Euro Pacific Capital,
Ever since President Nixon broke the US dollars last link to gold, the world has been set adrift on a sea of fiat currencies that have been increasingly debased, serving the interests of governments and financial elites. For the last five years, central banks have imposed near-zero rates of interest that have helped push up stock, bond, and real estate prices, but have made it nearly impossible for savers to receive meaningful returns on bank deposits.
2013: Looking Back at the Year of the Bull
Will stocks continue to climb in 2014? Odds are "very good," finds BCA Research. According to historical data going back to 1870, there were 30 times when annual returns in domestic stocks climbed more than 25 percent. Of these, 23 experienced an additional increase, resulting in a mean of 12 percent, says BCA. Thinking back to January 2013, investors had a very different frame of mind. While we recently talked about the year?s biggest stories in U.S. energy and gold, today, we recap our popular commentaries focused on the domestic market.
A Strong Finish for 2013
by Bob Doll of Nuveen Asset Management,
For our weekly subscribers, we wanted to take an opportunity to look back on the year. We began 2013 with an outlook for the prospect of improvement for the global economy and risk assets. We thought global policymakers unprecedented attempts to reflate global growth would show some signs of bearing fruit, especially in the United States and China. In our forecast, equity markets would continue to be choppy in light of the fiscal cliff issues, but an inevitable political compromise would reduce the economic drag.
Economy Surprises On The Upside, But Is It Real?
In todays abbreviated holiday E-Letter, well look at last Fridays surprising report on 3Q GDP. In its third estimate of 3Q GDP, the Commerce Department reported that the economy surged by more than anyone expected. Given the surprisingly strong numbers, more than a few are questioning the reports accuracy and wondering if it will be revised lower in January.
The Price America Pays for Global Leadership
by Bob Veres,
Americas political debates inevitably default to finding ways to contain our federal deficits, and our investment debates focus on whether were facing a secular bear or bull market - and how to maneuver within that environment. I had never imagined that these two debates could be related until I heard a presentation by Bill OGrady, of Confluence Investment Management in St. Louis, MO at the Insiders Forum conference in Dallas.
And That's The Week That Was
by Ron Brounes of Brounes & Associates,
vestors thanked Bernanke this week for what they perceived as an early holiday present. While no one knew how they would react once the Fed began to taper its bond purchases, many surprised analysts by lifting stocks to one of the best showings of the year (and a new record on the Dow). And now that that uncertainty is out of the way, let the vacations begin.
A Spoonful of Sugar
by Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital,
The press has framed Ben Bernankes valedictory press conference last week in heroic terms. Its as if a veteran quarterback engineered a stunning come-from-behind drive in his final game, and graciously bowed out of the game with the ball sitting on the opponents one-yard line. In reality, Bernanke has merely completed a five-yard pass from his own end zone, and has left Janet Yellen to come off the bench down by three touchdowns, with no credible deep threats, and very little time left on the clock.
China's Consumer Stocks: Opportunities Despite Slower Growth
by Richard Flax of PIMCO,
A weaker macro environment and curbs on spending by government bureaucrats have hit a range of consumer businesses and, in some cases, forced a reassessment of expansion plans. While Chinese consumption may be challenged in the near term, we think the impact will be felt most in the retail sector where slowing demand is compounded by oversupply. We see opportunity in other sectors that benefit from secular demand growth and constrained supply or strong brands, notably casinos and luxury sectors.
PIMCO Cyclical Outlook for the Americas: Riding the Cross-Currents of Higher U.S. Growth and the Fed
In the U.S., lower fiscal drag and the possibility of higher consumer and corporate spending should drive growth higher in 2014. Supported by higher U.S. growth and stabilization in Europe and China, Latin America is set to grow 3%-4% on average, but with a large dispersion across countries. Canada should benefit from the U.S. recovery but will likely lag U.S. growth due to lower consumption and residential investment.
A Surprising Way to Participate in Today's Tech Boom
China has become one of the best consumption stories out there, and looking over the next few years, local technology companies are almost certain to benefit. So while many U.S. investors are getting excited about the growing number of initial public offerings in the tech sector, they would be remiss if they didnt look beyond Silicon Valley.
Fed May Have An Unexpected Surprise In Mind
My readers know that the global financial world is waiting with bated breath for tomorrows Fed decision on whether to start to "taper" QE purchases now or wait until next year. The Feds Open Market Committee (FOMC) is holding its last policy meeting of the year today and tomorrow, and Chairman Bernanke will hold a press conference afterward.
The Monster That Is Europe
This week, Geert Wilders and his Party for Freedom in the Netherlands and Marine Le Pen of the Front National (FN) of France held a press conference in The Hague to announce that they will be cooperating in the elections for the European Parliament next spring and hope to form a new eurosceptic bloc.
The 2014 Geopolitical Outlook
As is our custom, we close out the current year with our outlook for the next one. This report is less a series of predictions as it is a list of potential geopolitical issues that we believe will dominate the international situation in the upcoming year. It is not designed to be exhaustive; instead, it focuses on the "big picture" conditions that we believe will affect policy and markets going forward. They are listed in order of importance.
Five Strategies for a Rising-Rate Environment Revisited
In June 2010, we recommended five strategies for a rising-rate environment, acknowledging that we had no idea when or how abruptly rates would rise. Indeed, rates fell since we wrote that article. But they are on the rise again. After reviewing how our original five strategies performed, we’ll now present our revised recommendations for investing as rates increase.
The Power of the Platform: The Promise and Peril of Technology Investing
by Ryan Jacob of Jacob Asset Management,
Without question, technologys rapid development during the past 20 years has played an incredibly powerful and largely positive role in furthering the progress and productivity of modern economies throughout the world. Technologys track record as a profitable investment theme, however, is a bit cloudier.
2014 Investment Outlook: Economic Growth Should Broaden
by Bob Doll of Nuveen Asset Management,
For the first time in several years, we approach the new year without big clouds on the horizon. In the United States, accommodative monetary policy has healed many of the wounds from the 2008-2009 crisis.
They Bravely Chickened Out
by Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital,
Earlier this week Congress tried to show that it is capable of tackling our chronic and dangerous debt problems. Despite the great fanfare I believe they have accomplished almost nothing. Supporters say that the budget truce created by Republican Representative Paul Ryan and Democratic Senator Patty Murray will provide the economy with badly needed certainty.
Viewpoints from AAM - Navigating the New High Landscape
December, historically the best month to own equities, has begun with a whimper with the S&P 500 closing at a loss each of the first four days of the month. If you include the last trading day of November, that makes five days in a row of red-filled screens for a total loss of 1.23% for the S&P 500. In the grand scheme of things that is a pretty small loss but it already has pundits dismissing the chances of a "Santa Claus Rally" and others saying the recent new market high of 1807.23 for the S&P 500 reached on November 27 might be its last.
The Impact of the Great Recession and Federal Reserve Accommodation on Households
The latest release of macro data came out today from the Fed Flow of Funds report generated by the Federal Reserve. We monitor this with great anticipation so as to measure possible direction changes or momentum of a current direction. There are a myriad of data points, however, a few select charts should continue to raise confidence in the direction of the economy and, at worst, a liquidity-driven backstop to maintain consumption at minimum agreeable levels.
Small (Cap) but Mighty
Despite a number of economic and political headwinds in 2013, US stocks have powered ahead, and not just the large-cap names that equity investors tend to gravitate toward during times of uncertainty. Small-cap stocks have also been looking pretty mighty overall this year. Michael McCarthy, portfolio manager for Franklin Small Cap Growth Fund, believes there are still reasons to be bullish in 2014, although careful stock selection could be even more important after 2013s small-cap run.
Stanley Black & Decker: Powering Its Way Toward Fair Value
by Team of F.A.S.T. Graphs,
Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) is a machine tools company built on namesakes of - you guessed it - three individuals with the last names: Stanley, Black and Decker. Frederick Stanley started a hardware manufacturing company in 1843. Duncan Black and Alonzo Decker started a similar shop in 1910, becoming known for the worlds first patent for a portable power tool. In 2010 the two companies merged to form what is today Stanley Black & Decker.
Where Have All the Savings Gone?
The last six years have witnessed the most severe financial crisis since the end of World War II, with household earning capacity and saving ability experiencing significant changes due to the downturn in the real economies. This challenging economic situation definitely affected household saving behavior, although the impact has been different in various countries - for some, the impact on household earning capacity was more intense than others.
And That's The Week That Was
by Ron Brounes of Brounes & Associates,
No one deserved a break more than investment guys/gals (except maybe politicos). Unfortunately, Thanksgiving holiday was too "short and sweet" for many and the economic week that followed was crazy. Number after number depicted an economy on solid ground with strong confirmation from the late-week labor releases. Investors took profits throughout much of the week as the final month of the year began, but the Bulls were back in force to conclude the week.
One of the Most Notable Stories of the Year: Energy Renaissance in the U.S.A.
Only a few years ago, we were contemplating the supply constraints facing the petroleum industry, as many major oil fields around the world were facing a decline in production. Now, with the disruptive technology in shale oil and gas, we may be looking forward to decades of drilling.
Stay the Course or Take an Unconstrained Approach to Bonds
BTS Asset Management contends that todays bond market environment calls for an unconstrained approach to bonds with the ability to move between bond asset classes based on economic indicators and market opportunities. The potential discrepancy in results among bond asset classes may be more pronounced than we have seen in the past 30 years which creates opportunity for a more tactical approach. Now may be the time for an unconstrained approach to the bond market.
PIMCO Cyclical Outlook: Synchronized Optimism
by Saumil Parikh of PIMCO,
In the U.S., the abatement of fiscal policy tightening combined with steady improvements in labor market demand and higher asset valuations is likely to drive an increase in real growth. The eurozone should finally emerge from recession in 2014, and Japan is likely to continue to grow with the continued assistance of extraordinarily expansive policies. In China, external demand will likely improve, but domestic demand will likely slow somewhat.
The Fed, Inflation, and the Perfect Storm in Gold Miners
Neither hopes of job creation nor fears of inflation (based on the massive expansion of the monetary base since late 2008) have thus far materialized. Total credit creation (i.e. money supply) during most of the last five years either shrank or barely grew despite massive growth in the monetary base. Nominal GDP (growth plus inflation) grows in response to total expansion of credit (both from the Fed and the banking system), not just the monetary base.
Muddling Through: The 'Realpolitik' of the Eurozone Crisis
by Andrew Bosomworth of PIMCO,
The long-term cost of Europes economic recovery is likely to challenge social tolerance and political will to achieve a fully integrated fiscal and political union. Although able to exploit the untapped potential of European treaties, the soon-to-be-elected 8th European Parliament looks more likely to continue to muddle through. We see low medium-term risk for government and corporate bonds with maturities of up to three years, but caution may be required for securities with longer maturities and lower down in the capital structure.
Christmas
by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James,
Well it is official, Christmas has begun. For me it began with the private wine and dinner party at Morrell, arguably the finest wine store I have ever seen, and anyone that knows me knows I have seen a lot of wine stores! Morrell is located at 1 Rockefeller Center between 5th Avenue and 6th Avenue overlooking the Christmas tree at Rockefeller Center. I had done a gig on Bloomberg radio at Morrell last Tuesday with my friends Carol Massar and Pimm Fox and got invited to the party the next evening to watch the lighting of the Christmas tree.
Best Consumed Below Zero?
In this report, we will turn our attention to Denmark to study its decision to undertake the below-zero rate, the specifics of the situation that prompted it and the effects of the negative rate on financial conditions and the broader economy. We will then briefly look at the possibility of a below-zero rate policy for the ECB and, most importantly, the geopolitical ramifications of the decision by the worlds second largest currency block to ease into unknown consequences of negative rates to stimulate the economy.
The Myth of the Most Efficient Market
Perception of the U.S. large cap value market is that its the most efficient in the world, and therefore the hardest category for managers to outperform the benchmark. As a result, index funds and ETFs have been gaining dramatic market share. Our latest whitepaper debunks conventional thinking with empirically-proven factors that have significantly outperformed in the U.S. large cap space.
Fed Creating More Financial Market Uncertainty
by John Browne of Euro Pacific Capital,
Although the U.S. stock market continues to hit new nominal highs on a nearly daily basis, the U.S. economy bumps along at a lackluster pace. This disconnect has been achieved by a massive Fed experiment in monetary stimulation.
Improving Economic Data Imply Further Global Recovery
by Bob Doll of Nuveen Asset Management,
U.S. equities finished last week in barely negative territory, ending the positive streak for the market. Economic data concerning the post-government shutdown climate has improved. Employment data beat estimates and increased by 203,000 jobs in November, and the unemployment rate fell to 7.0%, also surpassing expectations.
Did the Government Shutdown Help the Economy?
Take the government shutdown in October, when the House and Senate fought over the debt ceiling. Economic data wasn?t released, services were halted, national parks were closed, and "non-essential government workers were told to stay home. As a result, GDP was expected to collapse. Yet, data released this week reveal a different, stronger image of the U.S. economy. I think Shakespeare would deem the media?s fear mongering tactics as Much Ado About Nothing.
Gimme Three Steps...on the Path of Deleveraging
by Liz Ann Sonders of Charles Schwab,
Debt (and Fed policy) continue to be my biggest longer-term concerns; even with the progress made over the past few years by the household sector. The budget deficit is plunging; and thats great news, but more is needed to bring overall debt growth down to more reasonable levels. The solutions stool is three-legged: spending, revenues...and growth!
Running Out of Time
by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James,
Well, so far the Federal Reserve is winning out over my timing models that continue to suggest caution should be the preferred strategy in the short-term; and last week that strategy was wrong footed as the D-J Industrial Average notched another new all-time high.
No Silver Bullets in Investing
by James Montier of GMO,
In a new white paper today, James Montier of GMOs asset allocation team reviews recent "innovation in our industry." He argues, "one of the myths perpetuated by our industry is that there are lots of ways to generate good long-run real returns, but we believe there is really only one: buying cheap assets."
Emerging Asia Pacific: Regional Economic Review - Q3 2013
by Team of Thomas White International,
The second half of 2013 has posed significant challenges to growth in major Emerging Asia Pacific economies. Almost all emerging Asia Pacific economies showed signs of strain arising from stubborn inflation, higher interest rates, slower consumer spending and lukewarm exports.
The Eastern Lust for Gold
Having replaced savings with debt on both the national and individual levels, I think its well past time for Westerners to take a few lessons from our creditors in the East. Many Americans consider gold a "barbarous relic," but in Asia, the yellow metal remains the bedrock of individual savings plans. This means that either greater than half of the worlds population are barbarians, or theyve held onto an important tradition that our culture has forgotten.
Results 9,001–9,050
of 10,168 found.
