Japanese stocks may help boost the performance of international markets although the unique nature of Japan's economic and business structure could pose some risks.
Sticky inflation looks to compel developed markets (DM) central banks to crank policy rates higher – and keep policy tight for longer. The Federal Reserve paused last week but pointed to more hikes on the way.
Bull markets and bear markets can’t be identified in real-time – only in hindsight. More importantly, the return/risk profile of a “bull market” or a “bear market” can change dramatically depending on whether valuations are consistent with the beginning of a market cycle or the end of one.
Quarterly Macro Themes, a quarterly publication from our Macroeconomic and Investment Research Group, spotlights critical and timely areas of research and updates our baseline views on the economy.
Sometimes it feels like the economy and markets are on different tracks.
The European Central Bank (ECB) hikes rates and signals more tightening ahead.
Measuring changes in consumer prices is a messy, imprecise undertaking, one that can result in conflicting data, and yet these data are used by both the public and private sectors to guide important policy decisions.
State and local tax revenues sank in April, yet we believe most governments have strong fiscal positions, with ample reserves and budget flexibility to manage the decline.
Macroeconomic uncertainty has sparked questions over the durability of the traditional 60/40 portfolio—highlighting why investors may want to add alternative investments to the mix.
The Eurozone just entered a recession as the region posted two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth. The manner in which it entered a recession is a bit quirky.
The risks for bond investors from next week’s Federal Reserve meeting go well beyond whether officials decide to raise interest rates again.
Social listening quantifies sentiment toward your brand, what content is garnering attention and common themes to address or leverage.
In economics we often talk about cycles. “Business cycle theory” is an entire academic sub-field whose basic idea is that economic history really does repeat itself. Not in every detail, of course, but as a recurring sequence of expansions and recessions.
The Fed’s refusal to pause rates through the first five months of 2023 raises the odds of a hard landing. The magnitude of the yield-curve inversion has increased the risk inherent in the US banking and financial systems. The impending recession is unnecessary and self-inflicted.
“Owning bonds is better than white-knuckling it in stocks in an economy that is going into a recession,” Jeffrey Gundlach said.
Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions.
The drama characterizing the first half of 2023 may abate, with potentially milder returns for investors due to the effects of the Cardboard Box Recession.
The US debt ceiling negotiations brought considerable volatility to market prices.
“Crisis” is an overused word. Actual crises are those rare times when we are on the knife edge of disaster. It’s not a crisis when a bank fails, or Congress can’t agree on a budget. Those are annoyances (unless it's your bank). While not good, they don’t spell immediate catastrophe.
The Federal Reserve’s higher interest rates, the work from home trend, ESG distractions, increases in crime, etc., are having far reaching effects on our economy and investors.
Inflation has proven sticky, even as growth weakens. Markets are realizing that policy rates are set to stay higher for longer. We like quality in stocks and bonds.
War, inflation, rising rates, banking chaos, and recession are among the challenges facing markets. Investors must balance these shorter-term risks with the long-term return prospects of equities.
The artificial intelligence, or “AI,” revolution is upon us. The financial media and headlines are abuzz with stories of generative “AI” and the subsequent “industrial revolution.”
According to Buffett, the US economy just went through the “most extraordinary economic period since World War II.” That’s a heck of a statement.
What generally follows that expression is a succinct synopsis. We’re always trying to be concise; however, distilling complex economic and investment matters usually requires several pages.
Although attendance was down this year compared to last—mostly because Bitcoin’s price is still off its record high of approximately $69,000, set in November 2021—there was nevertheless an impressive turnout of investors of all ages, industry leaders, policymakers and more.
The U.S. economy is likely slowing down, and a recession seems likely in the 12-18 month time horizon.
An in-depth analysis of hedge fund performance demonstrates that, over the past 15 years, lower-beta hedge fund styles have generally achieved higher alpha, aligning with investors' objectives of maximizing returns and diversification.
Muni investors have more reasons for optimism than concern as California tackles a projected $31.5 billion budget deficit.
The central bank likely won't have enough reason to hike rates again this cycle. In fact, we wouldn't be surprised to see one or two rate cuts later this year.
If there was a message the Federal Reserve (Fed) wanted to make clear after the end of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on May 3, it was that it reserves the right to remain hawkish.
Japan’s business and government leaders have undertaken efforts to revitalize the country’s economy. Dina Ting, Franklin Templeton ETFs’ Head of Global Index Portfolio Management, discusses some of these positive developments.
The threat of recession is making debt securities a safer bet, while the stock market is yet to price in those risks.
Though equities have proven resilient, more of the long-expected effects of the Federal Reserve’s (the Fed’s) rapid interest rate-raising policy arrived in April.
The odds of a “hard” recession are 99%, according to David Rosenberg, and it will start in the second quarter. Indeed, he said, it may have already started.
Lending standards are a lot like carbon monoxide since they operate in the back ground. When the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOOS) showed that banks significantly increased lending standards in the third quarter, no one on Wall Street noticed.
And neither should you.
Cryptocurrency adoption in the U.S. increased amid fears of a full-blown banking crisis, a new poll finds. According to Morning Consult, 22% of Americans, over one in five, said they owned at least one form of crypto in April, representing a four-percentage-point increase from January.
Although the House narrowly approved a bill designed to jumpstart negotiations, the issue is far from resolved.
We favor high yield bonds and natural resource stocks as inflation still shows persistence, earnings expectations deteriorate and worries mount over a stalling U.S. economy.
We hope you enjoy the latest NewsLetter from Harold Evensky.
How will tighter lending standards become evident in the economy?
Chinese economic data blew expectations out of the water this week, reflecting a strong comeback for the Asian giant as it finally emerges from the world’s most restrictive pandemic-era lockdown.
Despite media headlines, podcasts, and broadcasts suggesting “doom and gloom” lurks around the corner, investor bullishness has increased markedly since the October lows. This isn’t the first time we have discussed investor sentiment, which is often wrong at the extremes.
Here’s four digital tools to differentiate yourself from the competition and level up your marketing efforts.
In his latest memo, Howard Marks discusses the significance of the Silicon Valley Bank collapse. He argues that it likely doesn’t portend a wave of banking failures but may amplify preexisting wariness among investors and lenders, leading to further credit tightening and additional pain across a range of industries and sectors.
It’s believed that to meet this goal, two out of every three passenger vehicles manufactured in the U.S. would need to be electric models.
The stakes are high, and it appears likely that our deeply divided government is headed for another debt-ceiling showdown. Divided governments have typically been good for the markets; however, they often spell trouble when it comes to negotiating fiscal matters.
The International Monetary Fund has caused some consternation with the long-range forecasts in its April World Economic Outlook. It predicts that once the current bout of nasty global inflation abates, interest rates will return close to zero.
First, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. highlighted Bitcoin as the best-performing asset in terms of absolute and risk-adjusted returns earlier this year. Then the banking crisis happened and the largest digital coin rose to its highest price in ten months. It's enough to make even some naysayers reconsider.
