How will bond portfolios react if the US election triggers further market mayhem? Fallout from Brexit taught us valuable lessons about extreme market shocks.

Mary Ellen Stanek Addresses Baird Advisors Institutional Investors Conference.

Understanding asset class correlation patterns is key to understanding true portfolio risk factor exposures and the embedded assumptions that inform investment decisions.

Now’s the time to get real. Now’s the time, in a world of paltry bond yields and meager dividends, to make an honest assessment of your portfolio’s long-term expected return.

We recently had the pleasure of interviewing Frank Holmes, CEO and Chief Investment Officer at U.S. Global Investors. He talks about a seasonal norm he sees playing out in the gold market over the next few months...

Jeff Knight looks at why market tantrums are the greatest risk management challenge facing investors today — and three ways to help protect your portfolio.

It was an interesting quarter in the fixed income markets and the municipal markets in particular, ranging from "Brexit" in the United Kingdom to the Federal Reserve Board (Fed) threatening to raise the Fed funds rate yet again (sounding like "Chicken Little").

U.S. equities moved slightly higher last week, with the S&P 500 Index climbing 0.4%.1 Corporate earnings results were solid, while data showed economic stabilization in China. Investors also reacted positively to high-profile mergerand-acquisition news.

I’ve written a great deal about debt. In last week’s piece, I showed the enormity of the problem. Growth is slow and I believe will remain in the 1.5% range. Not good enough.

I present a modeling approach to spot primary market cycles.

After a strong stretch for emerging markets so far in 2016, some investors wonder whether the rally still has legs. Although stock valuations have risen, we think signs point to yes.

A review of the month’s market-moving events across countries and asset classes.

Wasatch Advisors has been investing in India for well over a decade. We hope this paper will illuminate why we remain excited about the investment opportunities there.

Global equities are more than 15% higher than in February. A tailwind for this rally has been the bearish positioning of investors, with fund managers' cash in October rising to the highest level since 2001. Similarly, their equity allocations are now like those in February, mid-2010 and mid-2012, periods which were notable lows for equity prices during this bull market. Overall, fund managers' defensive positioning supports higher equity prices in the month(s) ahead.

Although bad for your pocketbook and savings, the possibility of higher taxes is expected to increase interest in tax-free municipal bonds, especially among top earners. For over a year now, muni bond funds have seen positive weekly inflows, with $147 million going in during the week ended October 17. I expect this trend to continue as we head closer to the election, and beyond.

We take a closer look at market technicals and sentiment this week with the historically volatile second half of October upon us. Although there has been some near-term volatility and equity weakness, the longer-term technicals on equities continue to look very strong.

We believe many of the unfulfilled dreams of the dot-com era are finally being realized as the convergence of hyper-connected consumers and increasingly sophisticated technology and software has allowed companies to provide services that seemed impossible even 10 years ago.

Ensuring a smooth exit from extraordinary monetary policy will be no enviable task.

In a low-interest-rate environment, what should investors keep in mind? Rick Friedman with GMO LLC explains.

Over the 12 months to mid-2016, global equities witnessed abnormal volatility driven by both macro and micro concerns. This reflected a more complex investment setting.

Companies in the consumer-related sectors and information technology are particularly attractive to us in the current environment, especially as technology is becoming more integral and competitive in emerging markets.

U.S. investors who buy munis for tax-efficient stability are getting help from an unlikely source — investors abroad.

U.S. equities retreated last week, with the S&P 500 Index declining 1.0%.1 Sentiment was dragged down by negative earnings updates, a disappointing trade report from China and rising U.S. political turmoil.

U.S. equity indexes have made little headway over the past few months, but flat is relatively impressive given the obstacles of Fed and election uncertainty, some softer economic data, downgrades in earnings, and valuation concerns.

We still believe our economy is likely to remain in a slow growth and low interest rate environment for some time. If rates do indeed get pushed lower by the relentless search for “safe-haven” yields, then other markets, such as high yield bonds, may follow. Since shorter duration, high yield bonds currently offer meaningfully higher yields than Treasuries, a further boost caused by a rally in Treasuries accompanied by flat or even tighter spreads could have a further positive impact on total returns in high yield bonds. Given the possibility for higher market volatility going into the election and beyond, we are keeping our defensive, shorter-duration bias and maintaining ample liquidity. Hopefully we can take advantage of bouts of market weakness to acquire both convertible and high yield bonds at attractive yields.

There are a lot of economic negatives to worry about these days. Slow growth, annual GDP rising at only 2.1% on average since the '08 recession. Stagnation. Low inflation. Burgeoning government debt relative to GDP. One third of global government bonds at negative yields (and a few corporate bonds now too). Corporate earnings per share declining for 6 consecutive quarters, even after historically high share buybacks. High share prices from relatively high earnings multiples—the S&P 500 at 17x forward earnings. Falling worker productivity for the third consecutive quarter. Flat retail sales, likely as a result of an over indebted consumer. High inventories relative to sales. The U.S. government putting the kibosh on several potential deals. Corporate insider buying at only one third of their selling—a poor ratio. General uncertainty, much stemming from an election year with two controversial candidates espousing controversial policies.

Just as April showers bring May flowers, plentiful monsoon rains in India tend to drive up demand for gold jewelry among rural, income-flush farmers, who make up a third of the country’s consumption of the yellow metal. It’s a relief to hear, then, that India just had its best monsoon season in three years, with heavy rains washing away people’s fears of yet another drought.

Russell Investments’ Senior Portfolio Manager Rob Balkema discusses how our strategists’ latest global market outlook insights might be implemented in a multi-asset portfolio, with special focus on emerging markets.

Weakening productivity growth poses serious risks to the economy and, by association, to stocks. One key piece to the puzzle is that productivity growth requires not just technological change, but also the diffusion of that change across the economy.

US stocks with high dividend yields are looking very risky these days. Investors with too much exposure to sectors such as utilities and telecom may also be in for a shock if interest rates eventually begin to rise.

While heartened by the bounce in oil prices after the multi-decade lows reached early in the year, any significant further rally in energy prices would seem to us to require a far more vibrant global economy. As the IMF’s (and the Fed’s) relatively subdued outlooks make clear, it is hard to anticipate such a scenario occurring anytime soon.

As reform alters the landscape, investors look beyond money market funds.

There were concerns throughout the summer that U.S. economic conditions had weakened. Based on incoming reports, though, the weight of economic evidence remains positive.

The S&P 1500 capped its fourth consecutive quarter of positive returns (and its 26th out of the last 30), as volatility reverted back up, closer to historical levels.

For the second time in as many debates, the US presidential candidates failed to talk about fiscal spending. Much too important to go unmentioned, Kristina Hooper, US Investment Strategist at Allianz Global Investors, presents each candidate’s fiscal platform and the potential implications for the US economy.

The SEC’s sweeping changes will likely make money market funds less risky – but far less attractive – to participants in defined contribution plans.

With all of the talk of the Federal Reserve taking action and raising rates in the next couple months, investors naturally are considering how they position their portfolios.

We have said before that the most important US employment stat each month is the index of aggregate weekly hours worked. The good news for September is that we saw an improvement in the year-over-year rate of change from 1.05% to 1.63%.

Worried about heightened market volatility? It’s true that there are some known unknowns ahead: US elections, earnings season, Deutsche Bank, a potential interest-rate hike.

During the height of the financial crisis, the Federal Reserve and other central banks stepped in to stave off complete global financial catastrophe. In the ensuing recovery, monetary policy has remained extremely accommodative and been largely responsible for an equity bull market that is nearly eight years old.

Today, let’s take a look at the most recent market valuations. Hint and not a surprise: both stocks and bonds remain expensively priced. Value? Not today. Especially in the bond market.

Historically, the best opportunities to boost market exposure emerge when a material retreat in valuations is joined by an early improvement in market action. At present, exactly the opposite is true. Extreme valuations and compressed risk-premiums have been joined by deterioration in market internals. This deterioration is an indication of growing risk-aversion among investors. Much of the recent bubble has been driven by yield-seeking, trend-sensitive speculators, with value-conscious investors progressively stepping back. As a result, any coordinated attempt by trend-sensitive market participants to exit by selling stock is unlikely to be met by demand from value-conscious investors at prices anywhere near present levels. This, in turn, leaves the market vulnerable to potentially abrupt losses.

In today’s letter we are going to look at the FOMC’s decision-making process for monetary policy and survey the unpalatable future that our leaders are cooking up for us. But we won’t be living in the fantasy world they have created for themselves; we are going to have to live in the real world instead, where investment portfolios make a difference to our lifestyle and retirement, not only for ourselves but for our families and clients.

There’s no other way to say it: Gold had a bad week. On Tuesday alone, the yellow metal fell more than 3 percent, shuffling off $43, in its biggest one-day loss in three years. It broke below the psychologically important $1,300 mark and touched the 200-day moving average before rising again today.

The word secular originates from a series of Latin words that mean an extended period of time or an era. It is actually closer to you than you might realize.

As new SEC rules take effect, it may be time to look “under the hood” of your money market fund.

When equity investors chase what’s hot, it often ends in tears. Today, the safety trades that have been so popular earlier this year are actually looking quite dangerous.

Many asset allocation strategies that focus on value have had disappointing returns lately, with their managers having some explaining to do. However, the S&P 500 Index has some explaining to do as well.