While predicting that “economic activity in March and April will be the worst of our professional careers,” Grant nonetheless says markets see light at the end of the tunnel that includes economic recovery by July.
Michael Grant is preparing for rebound in equities and has positioned the long/short portfolio accordingly. To use a Wayne Gretzky analogy, he is skating to where the puck will be, not where it is.
2017 is the first post-crisis year that markets are enjoying the fundamentals of stable and synchronous global GDP. This is why the character of equity returns has become less volatile. Equities are taking their lead from the earnings cycle. As long as the year-over-year growth in sales and earnings is improving—which has been true since Q1 2017—market corrections are typically modest.
“There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks when decades happen.” —Vladimir Lenin The reflation move since November has been aggressive but appears more right than wrong.
Over the 12 months to mid-2016, global equities witnessed abnormal volatility driven by both macro and micro concerns. This reflected a more complex investment setting.