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Sine of the Times
by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Investments, 4/24/15
Powerful secular and fundamental forces at work signal that the risk to U.S. interest rates remains to the downside.

Emerging Markets Winners and Losers: Q1 2015
by Jackie Lafferty of Loomis, Sayles & Co., 4/23/15
2015 kicked off with a rocky start for emerging markets: pending US rate hikes, falling commodity prices, quantitative easing in Europe, and idiosyncratic country risks all soured investor sentiment and caused the US dollar to soar. This led to substantial weakness in emerging market (EM) foreign exchange, pummeling US-based investors in many local currency bond markets. Despite that pain, EM credit performed well, and along with EM sovereign debt, posted positive gains.

Bill’s “Short of a Lifetime”
by Alexander Giryavets of Dynamika Capital L.L.C., 4/22/15
According to Bill Gross “German 10yr Bunds = The short of a lifetime.” We just wanted to make it clear that the Bunds were perfectly co-moving with the Global Carry over the last six years and the Global Carry is the major source of returns behind US equities, bonds, the Risk Parity portfolios, and 60/40 for that matter.

Is Greece Nearing the End of the Road?
by Darren Williams of AllianceBernstein, 4/22/15
Greece and its euro-area partners have yet to reach a deal to secure long-delayed bailout funds. Without these funds, Greece could run out of money in a matter of weeks, raising the real prospect of a default on payments due to its official creditors.

Uncertainty
by Scott Brown of Raymond James, 4/22/15
We live in an uncertain world. Policymakers have to sift through a wide range of data, much of which is subject to statistical error and measurement difficulties. Financial market participants deal with much of the same data, but also have to account for the uncertainty in how policymakers will interpret the data and respond. There are longer-term questions, which won’t be resolved anytime soon. So where do we stand now?

GE's Restructuring Pleases Investors and Avoids Other Risks
by John Browne of Euro Pacific Capital, 4/21/15
On April 10, General Electric, which for 123 years has been one of America's best known and most highly respected companies, announced a radical return to its basic industrial roots. After years of disappointing share performance, and a campaign of criticism by frustrated investors, Chief Executive Jeff Immelt decided to spin off most of its $500 billion GE Capital arm which, if taken as a stand-alone company, would have been the seventh largest bank in the U.S.

Roller Coaster Quarter
by Jim Tillar and Steve Wenstrup of Tillar-Wenstrup Advisors, 4/21/15
Volatility continues to be the theme for stocks. The S&P 500 was down big in January, rallied even bigger in February and went down again in March ending the quarter up 0.95%. The real action was in Europe where stocks clocked double-digit returns.

Pregnant Pause
by Adam Bowe and Robert Mead of PIMCO, 4/21/15
After re-engaging policy support in February following an 18-month hiatus, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) wrong-footed many in the market by keeping policy on hold in the two subsequent board meetings. So was February's decision a "one-and-done" policy event or the start of a more aggressive easing cycle?

The Charge Of The Monetary Light Brigade - Neosho Capital On The European Central Bank And Negative
by Chris Richey of Neosho Capital, 4/21/15
A paper on European Monetary Easing, which we feel is a well-meaning, but misguided effort, to solve demographic, cultural, and political problems with massive monetary manipulations of exchange rates and securities markets.

Social Security & Portfolio Withdrawals; It’s Complicated
by Roger Nusbaum of AdvisorShares, 4/21/15
The Wall Street Journal ran a blog post that outlined Michael Kitces’ argument for delaying Social Security which can be summed up by saying it should be thought of it as an asset in a portfolio so by waiting, the value of your asset grows.

Can Lumber Be Worth It's Weight in Gold?
by Jerry Wagner of Flexible Plan Investments, 4/21/15
Well, maybe not literally. But figuratively-speaking, one can make the case. And two very bright, young investment advisors have done just that.

Stay Patient Against the Consensus Trade of 2015
by Kathleen Gaffney and Matt Hildebrandt of Eaton Vance, 4/21/15
When making moves that are against a crowded trade, does it pay to be a patient, opportunistic income investor?

Drags on the Economy and Earnings Should Slowly Fade
by Robert Doll of Nuveen Asset Management, 4/20/15
Investors focused on the negatives last week, including some disappointing U.S. economic data and growing concerns over what will happen with Greece’s debt problems.

Emerging Europe: Economy Trends Update – April 2015
by Team of Thomas White International, 4/20/15
With the exception of energy exporter Russia, economic conditions appear to have taken a turn for the better in emerging Europe.

Thoughts from the Frontline: Half a Bubble Off Dead Center
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics, 4/20/15
Central banks, in their valiant, unceasing efforts to restore liquidity and growth, have unleashed numerous unintended consequences that are beginning to show up in earnest. Today we are going to review the well-meaning behavior of central banks for clues about our near future.

Weighing the Week Ahead: A Geopolitical Risk to U.S. Stocks?
by Jeff Miller of NewArc Investments, Inc., 4/19/15
I expect the supposed worries of Friday to prove unwarranted – an idea supported by late-day Friday trading. The real focus will quickly turn to earnings and housing data.

Today's NFP Miss Means Little For Equities and The Economy
by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch, 4/18/15
Failed sell offs lead to failed rallies. This has been the recurrent pattern for the past four months. There is unlikely to be a sustained move higher until there is a more complete sell off lower. Risk remains to the downside.

The Labor Market Recovery’s Missing Ingredient
by Russ Koesterich of BlackRock, 4/17/15
Why are so few Americans participating in the labor market even as jobs become more plentiful? Russ explains, noting two implications for investors.

Junior Mining Companies Have Taken a Senior Role
by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors, 4/17/15
For the past decade, junior mining companies have outperformed senior miners at finding new mineral deposits and generating wealth for investors.

Greek Drama Extends Its Run
by David Zahn of Franklin Templeton Investments, 4/17/15
Greece’s debt problems have retaken center stage, as payment deadlines approach and negotiations with creditors continue. The money-strapped country and Syriza, its radical left-wing ruling party, are back in the headlines and on the minds of investors, as predictions that Greece could leave the eurozone abound. David Zahn, head of European Fixed Income, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group®, offers his perspective on Greece’s dramatic debt saga, as well as the orderly beginning of the European Central Bank’s quantitative easing program.

Irrational Expectations
by Andy Rothman of Matthews Asia, 4/17/15
Do we have irrational expectations for the Chinese economy? On the one hand, we asked China to restructure and rebalance its economy, and it has delivered. It shrunk its state sector, and privately owned firms now account for more than 80% of employment and almost all new job creation. Almost all prices are set by the market. Investment growth is slowing and consumption is now the engine of economic expansion. China’s service sector is now larger than its manufacturing and construction sectors.

Weekly Economic Commentary: Countries Can’t Devalue Their Way to Prosperity
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 4/17/15
Countries Can't Devalue Their Way to Prosperity; Central Banks Are Doing Some Interesting Rebalancing; Paying for the Energy Dividend

Counting on Cash in Cloudy Equity Markets
by David Dalgas of AllianceBernstein, 4/16/15
Equity markets are digesting mixed signals in early 2015, from the divergence of monetary policies, shifting economic growth patterns and currency volatility. Instead of worrying about deciphering these trends, we think investors should focus on individual company cash flows in order to identify companies with strong long-term return potential.

Finding Value in Declining Commodity Prices
by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors, 4/16/15
I’m going to begin with a bit of good news. Below is our China Region Fund (USCOX). As you can see, not only has it broken above its 50- and 200-day moving averages, but it’s also trading at four-year highs. And since this chart was created early last week, the fund has climbed even higher, to $9.53 as of this writing.

China Finally Stops Fighting the Stock Market
by Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital, 4/15/15
Although China's economy has been leading the world in annualized growth since the days that mobile phones had retractable antennas, there have always been some aspects of the country's commercial and financial system that loudly broadcast the underlying illogic of a Communist Party's firm control of burgeoning capitalism. China's stock markets were one such venue where things just didn't add up...literally.

Emerging Markets of Tomorrow
by Jeremy Schwartz of WisdomTree, Inc., 4/15/15
This week Professor Siegel and Jeremy Schwartz chatted with Gavin Serkin, Emerging Markets (EM) Editor at Bloomberg News. They also spoke to Worth Wray, Chief Strategist at Mauldin Economics, whose current focus is also on EM and the implications of a stronger U.S. dollar.

Tocqueville Gold Strategy Investor Letter
by John Hathaway of Tocqueville Asset Management, 4/14/15
John Hathaway, manager of the Tocqueville Gold Fund (TGLDX), looks back at the performance of gold over the first quarter, noting that "Gold and gold mining shares appear to be as contrarian today as in 1999, before a decade?plus run in which bullion rose nearly seven?fold in US dollar terms."

Second Quarter Market Commentary 2015
by The CCR Wealth Management Investment Committee of CCR Wealth Management, 4/14/15
Over a year ago in our January 2014 Outlook commentary, we cited European markets as attractively priced relative to the US equity markets. Most market observers at the time were expecting a nascent recovery from the 2012 EU recession to get a boost from the European Central Bank (ECB). We even boosted our non-US developed market (and European-specific) allocation—though cautiously—in anticipation. Please note that we still think these markets are most attractively valued.

Stock Market Returns - The GDP Growth Rate Myth
by Baijnath Ramraika, CFA®, 4/14/15
The idea that nominal equity market returns approximate the country's GDP growth rate is historically uninformed and intellectually dishonest. If there were any merit to the idea that equity market returns should approximate GDP growth rate, we would see this in a tight relationship between the two variables across countries. But we don't.

The Case for Not Currency Hedging Foreign Equity Investments: A U.S. Investor’s Perspective
by Catherine LeGraw of GMO, 4/14/15
In a new white paper, Catherine LeGraw of GMO's asset allocation team explains GMO's approach to currency hedging, a topic which has gained relevance as the U.S. dollar has strengthened.

Bear Market Hibernation End is Nearing
by Sean Butson of DC Capital Management, 4/14/15
The S&P 500 continues to be overvalued and has become more so over the last 6 months. Based on 7 different valuation metrics, future 10 year compound annual returns are likely to be only about 6% vs. 9%-10% historically. While we are not expecting an imminent bear market, the specter of FED rate increases likely does indicate the beginning of the end of the current bull, as 12 out of 14 S&P 500 declines of at least 15% over the last 60 years have occurred within 3 years of FED tightening.

New Research: Reverse Mortgages, SPIAs and Retirement Income
by Joe Tomlinson, 4/14/15
Retirees need longevity protection and additional funds. Annuities and reverse mortgages can meet those needs. While annuities have been researched extensively, reverse mortgages haven't received as much attention. We need research on how to fit these two products together in overall retirement plans. I'll launch that effort here.

Global Economic Risks Remain but Appear to Be Diminishing
by Robert Doll of Nuveen Asset Management, 4/13/15
Investors reacted to a range of data and news last week that included a further digesting of the relatively weak March jobs data, ongoing merger and acquisition news, signs of weakening corporate earnings and further evidence of upward pressure on wages. Amid all of the crosscurrents, U.S. equities finished higher, with the S&P 500 Index gaining 1.7%.1 Most international markets advanced as well, while Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar rose.1 Industrials, health care and energy stocks led the way while telecommunications, utilities and financials lagged.

On My Radar: High Valuations = Low Forward Returns
by Steve Blumenthal of CMG Capital Management Group, 4/13/15
“I can’t change the direction of the wind, but I can adjust my sails to always reach my destination. – Jimmy Dean”

Quarterly Letter – April 2015
by Ron Muhlenkamp, Jeff Muhlenkamp of Muhlenkamp & Company, 4/13/15
Ron and Jeff Muhlenkamp discuss their views on the U.S. stock market, then briefly touch on some broader U.S. and global issues, then close with a summary of how it all ties together.

Are We Doomed to Weaker Growth
by Hale Stewart, 4/12/15
Any rally still faces strong headwinds. With a PE of 20.47, equities are already expensive. The strong dollar and weaker overseas economies are hampering general earnings growth while oil’s price drop is decimating the energy sector. And the percentage of NASDAQ and NYSE stocks about the 50 day EMA is approaching overbought levels. Without a meaningful change in either the earnings or valuation environment, any advance appears limited to at most 5%. That places a premium of stock picking and allocation.

Weekly Market Summary
by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch, 4/12/15
US markets once again look set-up to continue higher, as they have multiple times in the past four months. Each time in the past, however, they have instead reversed lower. Equities may continue higher this week - they are not overbought - but it seems unlikely that the largely trend-less environment has ended once and for all. Sentiment and volatility suggest unfavorable risk/reward on a one-month timeframe.

Finding Value in Declining Commodity Prices
by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors, 4/11/15
So what’s the deal with Chinese equities right now? After all, China’s economic growth for the first quarter of the year cooled to a six-year low of 7 percent. The market surge is mostly attributable to monetary easing and government policy changes such as housing stimulus and modernization of the country’s financial structure. But there’s more at work.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 4/11/15
Today’s Oil Retreat Is at Odds with Long-Term Trends; A New Bank Creates Controversy in Asia; Solving the U.S. Wage Conundrum

Slip Sliding Sideways
by Liz Ann Sonders, Brad Sorensen & Jeffrey Kleintop of Charles Schwab, 4/11/15
Volatility will likely continue and more sideways action could be in store for the US equity market. We believe US economic data will start to rebound, helping push stocks higher in the second half of the year. The Fed remains in focus, but a rate hike is not likely until the latter half of 2015, which has helped slow the dollar’s upward momentum; potentially comforting the market and letting businesses better react. Better near-term opportunities may exist overseas as the Eurozone economy is improving and Japan seems poised to rebound from soft data.

Buybacks Are Not Just an Accounting Trick
by Joseph Paul of AllianceBernstein, 4/10/15
As if on cue, news of record buyback authorizations earlier this year unleashed a torrent of media coverage denouncing them as nothing more than an accounting sleight of hand. We think the reaction has been pretty extreme.

It’s Time to Make Taxes Less Taxing
by Michael Allison, Peter Crowley, Jim Evans, Tom Metzold, Rey Santodomingo of Eaton Vance, 4/9/15
Can a strategy based on asset allocation, asset location and asset management increase the tax efficiency of your portfolio?

Supply-Side Yellenomics Is (Slowly) Losing Its Grip on Markets
by Tony Crescenzi of PIMCO, 4/9/15
Should investors worry about the possibility that the Federal Reserve might raise interest rates this year? How about the negative economic consequences of the rally in the U.S. dollar? “Hawkish” Fed mistakes?

Economists in Glass Houses
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics, 4/8/15
For many economists, the chicken and egg question is, which came first, consumption or production? What drives growth? Let’s continue with our series on debt, in which I have been contrasting my views with those of Paul Krugman.

Earnings Recession?
by Burt White of LPL Financial, 4/8/15
Earnings season kicks off this week (April 6?–?10) with Alcoa set to report first quarter 2015 earnings on Wednesday, April 8. This earnings season has received a great deal of attention in recent weeks because it may produce the first year-over-year decline in S&P 500 operating earnings since the tail end of the financial crisis during the third quarter of 2009. We preview earnings season and highlight reasons not to fear a potential decline.

Policy Paranoia
by Robert Stimpson of Oak Associates, 4/8/15
The present version of policy paranoia encompasses concerns over impending interest rate hikes, the rapid appreciation of the US dollar, a bloated US government balance sheet, weak international economies and increased probability of a crisis in certain Latin American countries. While legitimate, we do not believe the current ghosts are any more imminently destructive today than over the past six years.

U.S. and Canada: Continued Recovery With Some Potential for Headwinds
by Ed Devlin, Mike Cudzil of PIMCO, 4/8/15
?Each quarter, PIMCO investment professionals from around the world gather in Newport Beach to discuss the firm’s outlook for the global economy and financial markets. In the following interview, portfolio managers Ed Devlin and Mike Cudzil discuss PIMCO’s cyclical outlook for Canada and the U.S..

Don't "Dread" The Plow Horse
by Brian Wesbury, Robert Stein of First Trust Advisors, 4/7/15
“Dread” is the perfect word for what many investors have felt in recent years. Some have experienced it daily since the bottom in March 2009. Some experience it whenever the stock market falls.

Central Bank Dominance
by Richard Michaud of New Frontier Advisors, 4/3/15
The policies of the central banks are theoretically aligned in that they all have the objective of managing private economies with modern monetary macroeconomic principles. But, all four major economies are in different stages of recovery and disruptions are nearly inevitable. However, a positive view is that central banks are all focused on managing growth and that significant investment opportunities may be available for thoughtful investors and managers.

Less Than Zero: The Implications of Negative Interest Rates
by Russ Koesterich of BlackRock, 4/3/15
Many bonds, mainly in Europe, are trading with a negative yield, meaning creditors are paying in order to lend money. Russ K explains, providing three implications for investors.
Results 8,151–8,200 of 10,317 found.