The slope of the U.S. Treasury yield curve is often one of the more reliable precursors of a recession. Is it hinting that an economic downturn may be brewing in the not-too-distant future?

Headlines have been focused on tariffs, trade and the FAANG stocks; but underneath the surface may be a more important shift toward tighter financial conditions.

The definition of a China syndrome is, “A hypothetical sequence of events following the meltdown of a nuclear reactor in which the core melts through its containment structure and deep into the earth; hypothetically to China.”

An entire generation of investors has been misled about interest rates: where they come from, what they mean, how they're determined.

Investment is about valuation. Speculation is about psychology. Both factors are unfavorable here. We’re observing the very early effects of risk-aversion in a hypervalued market. Based on the deterioration we’ve observed in our most reliable measures of market internals, investor preferences have subtly shifted toward risk-aversion, which opens up something of a trap-door.

The yield curve is flattening. How low will it go?

This issue contains a deeper look into the competitive strategies at play in the current U.S.-China tariff feud, the drivers of the recent upturn in U.S. homeownership, and the market for Japanese government bonds.

After being mostly absent in 2017, volatility has made a comeback. The S&P 500 Index closed down for the first three months of 2018—the first time it’s done so in 10 quarters. It also had its worst start to April since 1929. Gold performed as expected during the quarter, serving as a safe haven and delivering positive returns, while the price of oil surged more than 5 percent on U.S. dollar weakness and news that OPEC and Russia could be cooperating to limit output for a long period.

The macro data from the past month continues to mostly point to positive growth. On balance, the evidence suggests the imminent onset of a recession is unlikely.

Spring traditionally is a time of rebirth and renewal – the weather starts to turn, flowers begin to bloom, baseball fans start to fantasize once again, and romance is in the air. But as March slips into April in 2018, the markets decidedly are suffering from hay fever – sneezing, wheezing and, at times, crashing to the ground.

Recent tax reform has increased the dialogue around state preference municipal portfolios, and some municipal investors are inquiring whether state-specific or state preference portfolios are a good fit in the current environment.

See what our quarterly survey of global fixed-income investment firms reveals about expectations for increasing interest rates, market volatility and emerging market currencies.

Quarterly commentary giving an overview of the markets and the importance of having and implementing a strategy when investing in the markets.

The S&P 500 nine-quarter win streak has ended, with stocks down in a volatile first quarter. Bright spots in the quarter’s market performance included: growth, small caps, technology, consumer discretionary, and emerging markets. While risks remain, market fundamentals have not deteriorated and economic growth remains on pace.

When we were kids, we used to love having our parents read to us, especially from books written by Lewis Carroll. Through the Looking Glass and Alice in Wonderland were our two favorites. One of the quotes that has always stuck with us is, “Down the rabbit hole,” which is a metaphor for an entry into the unknown, the disorienting, or the mentally deranging, from its use in Alice's Adventures in Wonderland. Unfortunately, the same can be said about the stock market recently.

While U.S. equity valuations clearly are at historically high levels, is the outlook as bleak as it seems? Perhaps not. Let’s see why that is the case.

Now that the first quarter of 2018 has just ended, what could be more fitting than to look back at the relative valuation of the S&P 500 stock index as of last year’s fourth quarter? After all, isn’t that what we economists do best, look back?

The economic calendar has several of the most important reports. The managerial rosters will be back at full strength, perhaps after an extra day or two off. Investment committees will consider implications from Q1 results. Pundits will try to explain what it all means.

Terri Spath is chief investment officer at Sierra Investment Management. She is responsible for market and economic analysis, portfolio allocation, investment strategy and building client solutions. In this interview, she explains how tactical management differs from market timing, and why it will excel in the current environment.

We maintain a neutral outlook for U.S. commercial real estate prices overall this year, following a 3% to 5% decline from their 2015 peak.

Just like the weather, the world economy and financial markets go through cycles. Most years, they don’t change suddenly. We get some transition time between the colder and warmer seasons. I fear we may be in an economic transition right now, and it may not be in the direction of the springtime or summer we would prefer. But let’s look at these charts and see what they tell us.

Stormy weather was abundant in March: spring snowstorms in the Northeast of the U.S., a trade tussle with China that could escalate into a trade war, hawkish personnel changes in the White House, a Powell-led Federal Reserve that expects to overshoot the neutral policy rate, and the worst week for U.S. equities since January 2016.

Is change in the wind for global investment markets and economies? See what our strategists’ views are for the second quarter of 2018 and beyond.

Gene Tannuzzo explains why a strategic beta approach makes a lot of sense in fixed income, particularly relative to traditional passive strategies.

Many of you will recall that T. Boone Pickens and I know each other. In fact, three years ago he and I did a “fireside chat” on stage at Raymond James’ Summer Development Conference in front of a few thousand financial advisors.

As I told Kitco News’ Daniela Cambone this week, I stand by the $1,500 forecast. Before this week, investors might have been slightly disappointed by gold's mostly sideways performance so far this year. But now, in response to a number of factors, it's up close to 3 percent in 2018, compared to the S&P 500 Index, down 2.4 percent.

Blackstone is pleased to offer the following Market Commentary by Byron Wien which shares his thinking on global economic developments, market insights and other factors that may influence investment opportunities and strategies.

The global expansion is either nearing its demand-driven peak or in the early stages of a supply-driven renaissance. We share our assessment and portfolio positioning.

Bill Gross' March 2018 Investment Outlook: A monthly outlook on the global financial markets.

With interest rates continuing to creep up, there’s a changing of the guard at the Federal Reserve. In my travels and during conferences, I’ve spoken with many fixed-income investors who wonder how they can best prepare for the uncertainty these changes might bring.

Emerging market economies are more vulnerable to the ill effects of ESG issues, but because transparency into such issues in these regions has been lacking, and because investors may have different understanding of risks and opportunities than ESG ratings agencies, integration has been difficult," the white paper says.

What should bond investors do when rates are rising and the credit cycle is ending? Perhaps not what you would expect. But getting this right can be critical for the health of your fixed-income allocation.

The current US equity bull market turned nine years old on March 9, 2018. That’s the second longest run without a correction of 20% on record. It’s natural to wonder if the tide is going to turn.

The Three Prisoners problem appeared in Martin Gardner’s “Mathematical Games” column in Scientific American in 1959. It is mathematically equivalent to the “Monty Hall problem” with the car and goat replaced with freedom and execution, respectively, and equivalent to, and presumably based on, Bertrand’s box paradox.

We believe that balancing higher-yielding assets with higher-quality assets is the best way to achieve the strategy’s objectives across different market environments.

When complacency met fear: $18 billion monthly outflow of SPY.

This is only the third time in the past twenty years when the yield curve has been this flat while at the same time high-yield spreads have been this tight.

You can be forgiven, for missing what I believe is the most significant development of the past few days. On Wednesday, the Senate, in a bipartisan vote, quietly approved plans to roll back key banking rules in 2010’s Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act (Dodd-Frank).

Rick and Russ on the new volatility regime, why risk is being misapprehended, and how to navigate these new challenges.

We see the US economy as maintaining its current path of respectable but not overly robust growth. Underlying fundamentals and economic momentum remain constructive, while we do not foresee an acceleration in growth to a level that would swiftly create inflationary pressures.

2017 was a record-breaking year for the $20 billion club—our name for the U.S. publicly-listed corporations with the largest pension liabilities—in at least five different ways. Contributions were double 2016 levels and nearly triple 2015 levels.

Last week, we discussed China’s power structure and how the suspension of term limits changes recent precedents. This week, we continue this topic by analyzing China’s challenges while shifting from the world’s high growth/low cost producer to a slower growth, “normal” economy.

The stock market’s recovery is approaching the nine year mark and appears to have the potential to continue for a few more years.

Many income-oriented investors may not be appropriately positioned for the current market environment, with increasing inflation and looming tariffs poised to lead to significant underperformance.

It’s human nature to want to protect your portfolio when the market takes a sharp turn. But too often, bond investors make the wrong choices when interest rates rise and credit cycles end. This can have disastrous consequences for returns.

In this issue, Research Affiliates discusses positioning for potentially volatile markets and the link between equity valuations and macroeconomic conditions.

It has been said that an investor will experience three secular bull markets in their life time. In the first one you will not have enough money to take advantage of it. In the third one you will be too old to take the amount of risk to really take advantage of it.

Tax reform has incentivized companies to return their offshore cash to the US. This could create opportunities for US investment grade bonds.

No doubt you’ve heard before that bull markets don’t die of old age. I can’t say for sure what will end this particular business cycle—no one can—but we’re seeing huge shifts in monetary and fiscal policy right now that investors can’t afford to ignore. As I often say, government policy is a precursor to change.