Recent market action has all the markings of a relief rally. The French vote in favor of centrist candidate Macron took "Frexit" off the table for now; a new tax cut proposal by the Trump administration, and the decreasing likelihood of a near-term U.S. government shutdown all appeared to play a part in the sharp rise in stocks and plunge in volatility.
Donald Trump has made good on one of his most audacious campaign promises by submitting what he describes as the biggest tax cut in U.S. History. For once, at least, this does not appear to be Trumpian braggadocio. It really may be the mother of all tax cuts.
Though uncertainties remain, we have a broadly positive outlook for commodities in the next year.
With US equities charging to new heights, some market observers are questioning whether the market is climbing a “wall of worry” based in part on policy promises that haven’t yet been delivered.
Russell Investments’ Senior Investment Strategist, Wouter Sturkenboom reviews the Brexit drivers for the upcoming June 8 snap election as well as four key things for investors to watch as the mechanics of the UK leaving the EU get underway.
Many investors are concerned about the risks to growth and the potential for higher inflation in Peru following two recent shocks.
Income Tax Day came and went last week without a great deal of fanfare. Most Americans who owed income tax to the government for 2016 either filed their tax returns and paid their bill to Uncle Sam last week, or filed for an extension and paid their estimated tax, as many do each year. Nothing new there.
Fund managers have become more bullish, but not excessively so. Cash balances at funds remains high, suggesting lingering doubts and fears. Allocations to US equities dropped to their lowest level in 9 years in April: this is when US equities typically start to outperform.
The French President semi-finals were over the weekend and the vote went about as positive as they could have for the markets. While LePen won the first round, it is unlikely that she will be able to gather enough support to upset Macron in the final tour.
Russell Investments’ Senior Investment Strategist, Wouter Sturkenboom reviews the initial French presidential election results and gives his views on what to expect from eurozone markets in the days ahead.
When the French elected François Hollande as President in 2012, the global left rejoiced. Mr. Hollande ran on a platform of protecting workers from capitalism. He wanted to raise the top income tax rate to 75%. Analysts predicted a political turn to the left across Europe, if not beyond.
I have no problem whatsoever with the intent of the DOL fiduciary rule (may it rest in peace). But I was dismayed with the rule’s final form. In fact, I believe that the DOL’s voluminous tome can be distilled to a single sentence.
As some market worries have been put to rest, there is a growing appetite for new ones. Pundits who say that things look OK are not very exciting. Last week we saw a shift in attention. Despite healthy earnings and good economic data.
How can you use your content marketing to drive traffic, establish yourself as an expert and ultimately grow your business? I’ll highlighting three main steps: finding your voice, creating a routine and managing and monitoring your results.
There is one problem that is very definitely coming our way that I really don’t think we can Muddle Through and where even the middle-of-the-road scenarios are terrible, and that’s the public pension crisis. I really see no way it can end well. It’s going to hurt just about everyone.
There's some clear blue water between the two candidates contesting the final round of the French presidential elections on May 7: Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron. Here, David Zahn, head of European Fixed Income, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group, shares some thoughts on the potential market implications of the race.
A week ago, a number of notable short-term extremes in sentiment, breadth and volatility had been reached, suggesting a rebound in equities was ahead. In the event, US equities gained 1% and both NDX and COMPQ made new ATHs. But new uptrends are marked by indices impulsing higher as investors quickly reposition and chase price. Momentum quickly becomes overbought. Neither of these has happened, at least not yet.
Trump’s 100th day arrives next Sunday, April 29, and it would be disingenuous to describe his tenure so far as smooth sailing. He’s faced a number of significant setbacks and distractions, including federal judges’ smackdown of his two travel bans, a failure to repeal and replace Obamacare and an ongoing investigation into his administration’s possible collusion with the Russian government in the months leading up to the November election.
The US equity market has been climbing since 2009, and many investors are finding reasons to believe the ascent should continue this year.
Is the dollar losing its grip on its status as the world’s reserve currency?
Introduction Finding attractive investments in the dividend growth space has become a real challenge in today’s overheated market. This is especially true if you limit yourself to looking in the obvious places. Simply stated, you won’t find any bargains today in the Procter & Gambles, Johnson & Johnsons and Coca-Colas.
Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group talks monetary policy, European politics in the April Global Economic Perspective.
“Not see the forest for the trees” is an idiom derived from British English that describes someone who is so focused on the minutiae that they miss the larger picture.
Managing Director, Investment Practice Adam Goff believes that an investment strategy, when dynamically managed, using cycle, value and sentiment as a way to examine opportunities, is more likely to help investors achieve their intended outcome.
When the first round of voting kicks off in the French presidential election on 23 April, the outcome will determine not only France’s political future, but whether the EU moves closer to unity in this critical “super cycle” election year.
During the first quarter of 2017, the stock market (as measured by the S&P 500 Index) enjoyed a 6.07% total return. The gains reflect (1) the steady, persistent, non-inflationary economic recovery that has characterized the post-2008 period and (2) investor enthusiasm for President Trump’s pro-business, pro-growth policies.
Tim Stevenson, Director of European Equities at Henderson Global Investors, says Europe finally seems to have broken free of the economic uncertainty that has plagued it for a decade and discusses the impact of irrational news on investor sentiment, and whether or not the market rotation we saw in the second half of 2016 is now fully ‘priced in’.
Global equities rally supported by strengthening macroeconomic data.
A review of last month’s market-moving events across countries and asset classes.
On a recent visit to Argentina, I was interested to see how things have changed under the leadership of a new administration—in many cases, due to constructive policy reforms.
Are you using the whole pension toolbox? See what large plan sponsors are up to in this latest blog post from Bob Collie.
While the world's superpowers reposition their military strength toward the borders of North Korea, the financial markets look to be following closely in their wake and reordering their asset weighting toward one of less risk.
Last week, we began our retrospective on the EU. This week we will examine the post-Cold War expansion of the EU, including a discussion of the creation of the euro and the Eurozone. With this background, we will analyze the difficulties the EU has faced in dealing with the problems caused by the 2008 Financial Crisis.
Invesco Fixed Income shares its views of rates around the world
One of the benefits of historically-informed investing is that it allows various investment perspectives to be evaluated from the standpoint of evidence rather than verbal argument. That’s particularly important during periods like today, when much of financial commentary on Wall Street can be filed into a folder labeled “it’s hard to argue with your logic, if only your facts were actually true.”
As if you need more proof that inflation is finally starting to pick up, lumber prices rose to a 12-year high this week, supported mainly by expectations that steep duties will soon be levied on cheap softwood imports from Canada. Lumber futures rose to nearly $415 per thousand board feet on Monday, a level unseen since March 2005, soon after homeownership peaked here in the U.S.
In their second-quarter (Q2) 2017 outlook, K2 Advisors’ Research and Portfolio Construction teams share the key market events they have an eye on.
The housing market evokes a strong, and often emotional, reaction. This is usually because vested interests (owners, investors, speculators, politicians, lenders, real estate agents and others) can’t bear to think of the consequences of a decline in house prices. Politicians constantly talk about making housing more “affordable” but, by definition, this means lower prices.
I spoke with uber investor Frederick “Shad” Rowe, captain of Dallas-based Greenbrier Partners, last Thursday. Shad always has great investment insights, and his March letter to investors was no exception.
The first quarter of 2017 was a profitable one for many strategic domestic and global equity investors. All major domestic large cap indices are up for the year: S&P 500 is 5.53%, Dow 4.56%, and NASDAQ 9.82%. On the other hand, domestic small cap underperformed with the Russell 2000 gaining 2.12%.
So should we sing or weep? Warren Buffett has a brilliant way of making the complicated simple. Let’s think about valuations like we think about the price of hamburgers and see if we are going to get more or less for our money. Today, I share with you my favorite valuation charts and story them in a way I hope your clients might better understand.
Last Friday, payroll employment data, from a survey of businesses, showed the US created just 98,000 jobs in March. The consensus of forecasters had expected job growth of 175,000. The other jobs number, which comes from a survey of households, showed 472,000 new jobs in March.
If you ask financial advisors – as I have – what’s truly important to them, their personal goals and dreams, and what makes them genuinely happy, they get uncomfortable.
It’s time to re-think how conferences for financial advisors are conducted.
Recently my new boss was hired. This guy is about 15 years younger than I am and thinks he knows more than he does.
Yes, active management has had its collective head beaten bloody for the past few years; and the proclivity for passive investing may persist a lot longer than any of us imagine, driving markets higher than many of us believe possible; but I think the stampede into passive investment is going to end up painfully, at the bottom of a cliff, for many investors.
Fresh purchasing manager’s index (PMI) readings for the month of March were also released, showing continued manufacturing sector expansion in the world’s largest economies, including the U.S., China and the eurozone. All of Zurich was under construction, it seemed, with cranes filling the skyline in every direction. And when I flew back into San Antonio, sections of the international airport were also under heavy construction. This all reflects strong local and national economic growth in Switzerland and the U.S.
The macro data from the past month continues to mostly point to positive growth. On balance, the evidence suggests the imminent onset of a recession is unlikely.
