Domestic stocks were a great place to invest in 2017, but hopefully you didn’t overlook opportunities overseas. Emerging markets had a gangbusters year, surging more than 37.5 percent with dividends reinvested, as measured by the MSCI Emerging Markets Index.
Equity markets are widely expected to do well this year after a stellar 2017. We share the optimism, but are monitoring multiple risks—from style patterns to inflationary pressures—that could deliver surprises as the year unfolds.
Bonds have been in a "bull market" for the past thirty-seven years. Not every quarter, or every month, but bond yields have fallen consistently since Paul Volcker ended the inflation of the 1970s.
It is worth examining the nature of bubbles and the arguments that cryptocurrencies are in a bubble to determine whether the space is still worthy of investment.
This week and next we’ll look at forecasts from some of my most trusted friends and colleagues.
I believe these forces behind the fear trade will only intensify in 2018. With inflation finally showing green shoots and President Donald Trump’s $1.5 trillion tax reform law expected to increase deficit spending, this year could provide the right conditions to spur gold prices higher.
The fourth quarter of 2017 closely resembled much of the first three quarters – global markets continued to grow steadily, resulting in positive returns for many strategic domestic and global equity investors.
Beware the consequences of assuming that elevated CAPE ratios are here to stay, but if they are the "new normal," low future returns are likely to be the "new normal" as well.
John Hathaway, manager of the Tocqueville Gold Fund (TGLDX) writes in his Q4 investor letter that “cryptocurrencies attempt to mimic one of the key attributes of gold: a liquid real asset with no counterparty risk. We view cryptocurrencies as contributors, and possibly as accelerants, to the long-term undermining of all paper currencies. We see them as allies of gold and threats to fiat currency, not as an existential threat to the metal, as they have been so frequently portrayed.”
Over the past year, global equity markets have made strong advances, fueled by continued, broad-based economic growth, and in spite of a somewhat unsettling geopolitical backdrop. Over the last 12 months the U.S. economy has continued to grow at a steady rate of almost 2.5% on an annualized basis, as measured by GDP.
Blackstone is pleased to offer the following Market Commentary by Byron Wien which shares his thinking on global economic developments, market insights and other factors that may influence investment opportunities and strategies.
When Mark Finn speaks, you listen. Commanding, sharp, brilliant. He’s a maverick in the investment business. He’s also a mentor, incredibly humble and frankly one of the nicest human beings you could meet. He continued, “I need your help on something. I’ve got something big and I’m not sure how it should best be packaged.
The essential survival tactic for a hypervalued market, and its resolution ahead, is to recognize that market valuations can experience breathtaking departures from historical norms for extended segments of the market cycle, so long as shorter-term conditions contribute to speculative psychology rather than risk-averse psychology. Yet those departures matter enormously for long-term returns.
In addition to popping champagne corks and black-eyed peas (at least in the South) on New Year’s Day, year-end brings something else for economists and portfolio managers: annual forecasts. People want to know what the coming year will bring. I would like to know, too. But since I’m on the other side of your monitor, I must give you my own forecast. Caveat emptor applies.
As we head into the New Year, I want to share with you the five most popular Frank Talk posts of 2017. One common theme you’ll see in these posts is they all center on the topic of gold. Although we specialize in educating investors about gold and managing gold funds, it’s worth noting that our gold posts garnered more interest than our bitcoin and blockchain posts in this year of cryptocurrency craze.
Tax reform is currently underway in Congress and could have important implications for the tax-exempt municipal market. As we wait for a final agreement between the House and Senate versions — which could come as soon as today or tomorrow — we can make some observations about how tax reform is likely to impact the US municipal bond market, based on the details reported to date.
I have been championing the case for emerging-market investing through many market ups and downs, but the task was a bit easier in 2017. Emerging markets (as measured by the MSCI Emerging Markets Index) saw a positive performance in 2017 and outperformed developed markets (as measured by the MSCI World Index) for a second year in a row.
Global stocks benefited from broad economic growth in 2017, and some forecasters expect growth next year to be slightly better. Yet Franklin Equity Group’s Coleen Barbeau thinks equity valuations, particularly in the US market, already reflect that rosy outlook.
As the European Central Bank pursues monetary-policy normalization in 2018, it should proceed with caution. It will need to balance mounting pressure from Germany for faster normalization with a realistic assessment of the durability and breadth of the unfolding recovery.
As is our custom, we conclude the year by reflecting on the 10 most-read articles over the past 12 months. The list below reflects articles focused on practice management.
As 2018 approaches, investors may want to take some time to reexamine their high-income strategies. We’ve got some advice: Be selective. Be diversified. And, perhaps most importantly, be patient.
Few things in this world can be predicted with accuracy over multiyear periods and fewer still over multidecade spans. One exception is population demographics. Based on data today, we have a good idea how populations will develop through 2050.
The U.S. Congress passed a significant bill today that makes sweeping changes to the country’s tax code. How much of a boost could the new law provide to financial markets and the nation’s economy?
December 23rd is almost upon us. You know what that means. It’s time for me to work up my annual airing of grievances for Festivus 2017. Although I have myriad political-economic grievances for 2017, I am going to concentrate on only one in this annual Festivus epistle – the Taylor Rule.
Today’s fixed income investment environment can be especially negative for bond portfolios heavily weighted with core holdings such as Treasuries, agencies, MBS, and investment-grade corporate bonds—all of which are highly sensitive to rising interest rates and changing fiscal and monetary policy.
The economic calendar is loaded, especially with reports on housing. Despite this, the calendar and recent events will stimulate pundits to get out their crystal balls. I expect many to be asking: Can the rally in stocks find fresh legs in 2018?
A report issued by the CFPB in August 2017 claimed that using a reverse mortgage to delay Social Security is a bad idea. This report gained a lot of press coverage and is likely serving as the primary resource for people seeking to learn more about the matter. I will provide the analysis that shows why the CFPB is wrong.
US stocks will likely rise in 2018. By how much is anybody's guess: the standard deviation of annual returns is too wide to get even close to a correct estimate on a consistent basis. Earnings growth implies 6% price appreciation, but tax cuts could boost that to 13%.
Times have changed, in more ways than one. This December has been especially hectic, with the transition in Brexit negotiations, U.S. tax reform debate and Bitcoin setting new highs every few minutes.
Below are five questions to help guide your thinking when making investment decisions in the new year.
Rick Rieder and Russ Brownback examine the more volatile cyclical dynamics we’re likely to encounter in 2018, even as the secular risk-asset bull market remains in place.
Technological advancements over the past two decades have moved the idea of self-driving cars from the realm of science fiction to fact. Recently, Franklin Templeton Investments assembled a panel of professionals to discuss the competition between traditional vehicle manufacturers and technology companies in the race to develop a truly autonomous car.
We expect the global expansion to continue in 2018. Yet investors should prepare for both the consequences of policy shifts and the opportunities presented in more difficult market conditions.
The U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed) delivered another rate hike today, raising its target policy rate by 25 basis points to a new range of 1.25-1.50%. The decision was widely anticipated by economists and fixed income investors.
In a new quarterly letter to GMO's institutional clients, head of asset allocation Ben Inker discusses why investors should be thinking about the risks of surging inflation, even if such a surge may not be inevitable or even probable. Chief investment strategist Jeremy Grantham considers the current market environment and how to most rationally take risk with the ultimate stakes on the line.
Millennials are becoming a powerful force in emerging markets (EM). Understanding the social and consumer dynamics of this generation can lead to surprising investment opportunities in diverse sectors.
A review of last month’s market-moving events across countries and asset classes.
All of the US equity indices made new all-time highs this week, for the first time since mid-October. SPX and DJIA have risen 8 months in a row. By some measures, investor sentiment is more bullish now than at any other time in more than a year, driven, apparently, by enthusiasm for tax reform legislation. The current uptrend is extended, and may be getting ready to take a short break, but further gains are likely during the first several months of 2018.
The economic calendar is normal, but there are plenty of cross-currents from other major events. Bitcoin futures, the FOMC meeting, more debate on the tax legislation, the Alabama special Senate election, and an avalanche of 2018 forecasts.
With the stock market and Bitcoin reaching all-time highs, what can possibly go wrong? In offering my thoughts on 2018, I see my role in reminding investors to stress test their portfolios. Is your portfolio built of straw, sticks or brick?
The big event this week is the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, during which a decision to raise the Fed Fund Rate is expected. This would be just the 4th rate increase this economic cycle. Each of the previous events was followed by a pullback in SPX and also a multi-week period where the index did not hold any gains.
Since the global financial crisis, inflation in the advanced economies has persistently undershot their 2% targets despite unprecedented quantitative easing (QE), extraordinarily low interest rates, large fiscal deficits and near all-time low unemployment.
Writing about blockchain and bitcoin right now is a little like buying a new computer in the 1990s. The tech was advancing so fast in those days that as soon as you brought the thing home, it was sorely outdated. Similarly, the cryptocurrency world is changing so rapidly at the moment that even before “the ink dries” on one of my posts, some important new development has already surfaced.
Today I’ll give you some quick thoughts on the just-issued November jobs report, then take a deeper look at the automation problem/opportunity.
The macro data from the past month continues to mostly point to positive growth. On balance, the evidence suggests the imminent onset of a recession is unlikely.
This year may be remembered for its low volatility and the strong performance of nearly all asset classes across almost all geographic markets. But 2018 may follow a different playbook.
Will the global growth momentum of 2017 carry over into next year? Is there a risk of a pullback in the short term? See what our strategists' views on global investment markets and economies are for the year ahead.
Easy monetary policies during the post-crisis period have propelled equity prices higher and driven bond yields lower. But as central banks reverse their quantitative easing (QE) and raise rates, this “Goldilocks era” will come to an end, according to Jeffrey Gundlach.
In most parts of Canada we have very distinct seasons. Some months of the year are temperate and relatively dry, while other months are cold and snowy. As a result, most Canadian towns of any size have stores that sell skis and bikes.
