Jerome Powell didn't exactly say "mission accomplished" last week, but that's largely what the markets heard on Wednesday.
In October, the markets were down 10% from the July high, bond yields were touching 5%, and talk of a coming recession was rampant. What happened?
Starting portfolio yields may be a better guide to optimal spending than knowledge of future market returns.
It’s worth noting that despite the recent market advance, our own investment discipline, and even Treasury bills, have outpaced the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 during this period, with less volatility.
This year proved a difficult one for bonds as the Federal Reserve aggressively hiked rates for much of the year. With the rate narrative changing moving into 2024, investors moved back into bonds in a big way beginning in October, including municipal bonds.
The last three years have seen extraordinary market turbulence and ever-changing market narratives – from COVID-19 to inflation, rising interest rates to geopolitical instability.
If you really want to reduce the federal debt, you don’t have to convince Congress of anything. You can just write a check. The Treasury Department gladly accepts gifts from anyone so inclined.
If today were the last day of 2023, Bitcoin would have returned almost 155%, marking the best year since 2020, when it rose a phenomenal 305%.
Mutual Series sees an increasing number of investment opportunities in real assets.
While inflation isn’t yet at the 2% range that the Federal Reserve has been targeting, it’s getting there. At least, it’s getting close enough for it to ease up on the gas on raising interest rates. In fact, the Fed could pump the brakes next year.
The market anticipates a swift shift in the Fed cycle.
A rally in this year’s laggards shows investors are now going “all-in” on expectations of a flurry of central bank rate cuts next year, according to Bank of America Corp.’s Michael Hartnett.
The ECB will pivot in 2024, but probably not as early or swiftly as markets predict.
John Baldi, Portfolio Manager at ClearBridge Investments, examines the evolving US equity income landscape and shares his strategies for generating income and growth, while also aiming to manage risk in uncertain economic and market conditions.
Analysts are growing increasingly doubtful that US consumer spending will hold up into next year, even as American shoppers continue to be surprisingly resilient despite lingering inflation and elevated borrowing costs.
While the ECB is unlikely to raise rates further, we remain skeptical that it will deliver rate cuts as early as the market expects.
The dollar will surprise by getting stronger next year as the US economy outperforms, according to some of the world’s biggest money managers.
With 2023 drawing to a close, the time has come once again to take a longer look at what next year might bring.
Stronger signaling from the Federal Reserve that interest rate cuts are on the menu in 2024 understandably sent both stocks and bonds soaring on Wednesday.
With the lagging effect of elevated interest rates potentially cooling the appetite of the economic growth engine that is the U.S. consumer, Global Head of Multi-Asset Adam Hetts at Janus Henderson Investors explains why he believes investors should take a defensive stance by prioritizing quality companies and cross-asset diversification.
A tentative timeline toward rate cuts in 2024 was revealed in the updated Summary of Economic Projections.
The decision to hold the federal funds rate steady was in line with expectations, but the accompanying statement and projections indicate a shift toward easing in 2024.
Macroeconomic uncertainty remains elevated. We believe a recession in 2024 is more likely than not. Non-profit hospital systems have faced significant operational pressures, and may continue to experience challenges in the near-term.
Contrary to many Western analysts’ expectations, the shift from a unipolar to a multipolar world economy will not lead to a China-led alternative order but to global instability. Amid deepening economic fragmentation, leaders must forestall a rapid descent into chaos by strengthening the existing multilateral architecture.
The VettaFi Market Outlook Symposium brought together industry thought leaders and experts to help investors position for 2024.
US retail sales unexpectedly picked up in November as lower gasoline prices allowed consumers to spend more to kick off the holiday shopping season.
US stock and bond prices will see modest gains as the Federal Reserve pivots to cutting interest rates next year, though the easing may not be as aggressive as markets are now expecting.
After clashing in recent years, Wall Street traders and the Federal Reserve are – for once – broadly in sync: The great monetary pivot is near as central bankers engineer a once-unthinkable soft landing in the world’s largest economy.
The Federal Reserve declared victory today, projecting a soft landing as its base case in the years ahead, with more cuts in short-term rates, and with inflation gradually getting back to its 2.0% goal without a recession.
Doug Drabik discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
Stock returns over the next 10 years may likely be lower than bond returns.
When private equity firms push into an industry, you know there are decent returns to be made. Just consider their enthusiasm for the arcane business of insuring corporate pensions.
The stock market is getting ahead of itself on bets the Federal Reserve’s fiscal tightening is over, according to Wells Fargo’s Chris Harvey.
The bond market’s bold bet on US interest-rate cuts is set for its biggest test yet.
The secular forces that held down rates for forty years have not entirely changed.
Municipal bonds posted historic total returns of 5.90% in November. Rallying interest rates led the way, while strong demand aided outperformance versus Treasuries.
To argue that the U.S. consumer has remained resilient has become a cliché and at the same time an understatement. After a very strong increase in real incomes during the pandemic, real income growth started to slow considerably.
US consumer prices picked up in November, reinforcing the Federal Reserve’s resolve to keep interest rates elevated in the near term.
Value stocks are poised to deliver solid returns in what may prove to be a more unsettled year ahead, according to Mutual Series CIO Christian Correa.
I had a recent experience with an ultra-high net-worth investor that was disturbing.
The year 2008 and the subsequent Global Financial Crisis (GFC) stand as a watershed moment in the annals of our capitalist society. It was a bailout prompted by poor capital allocation, deficient risk management, and unchecked greed.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell faces a communications conundrum at the central bank’s policy meeting this week. Luckily for him, he could just let the Summary of Economic Projections do most of the talking — and avoid unnecessary misunderstandings.
‘Tis the season for headlines about the prices of some very specific items, such as a 16-pound turkey (down from last year) or a Christmas tree (up). None of these prices, however, is a good barometer of the overall cost of living.
As an advisor specializing in retirement planning, I frequently work with professionals who want to explore early retirement.
Support for ESG has plummeted among Millennial and Gen Z investors, typically the strongest backers of environmental, social and governance-related issues, as a more turbulent financial outlook tempers enthusiasm, according to a survey from Stanford University and the Hoover Institution.
Investors are pouring cash into the world’s largest exchange-traded fund tracking emerging-market debt as confidence mounts that the US Federal Reserve is nearing the end of its aggressive monetary tightening campaign.
US company earnings are likely to weaken in the fourth quarter before a rebound in 2024, according to Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson.
The most accurate US bond forecasters of 2023 say the strong year-end rally won’t stretch into 2024.
The mid-cap universe offers compelling sector diversification and opportunities to participate in the upside of the broader market, according to Dina Ting, Head of Global Index Portfolio Management.
Investors are beginning to price in a 'soft landing' as the base case over the next 12 months. This is evident across a number of indicators.
