With the proverbial ceasefire negotiation can kicked down the road for the second time in a week, the U.S. and Iran remain in a stalemate over the Strait of Hormuz.
The defining feature of a Ponzi scheme is that it persuades investors to pay for future cash flows that, at least in part, don’t actually exist, while creating the impression that those cash flows imply an attractive return on the price investors pay. If we look carefully at the record valuation extremes in the equity market, and the wildly elevated profit margins that investors appear to view as permanent, we can already see the potential for difficult, even tragic outcomes for investors.
The Iran conflict has turned energy markets into a moving target, with oil prices adjusting as expectations around Strait of Hormuz supply risk shift.
In elevated financial markets, risk is rarely eliminated. It is usually only relocated. During the run-up to the 2008 financial crisis, mortgage risk did not disappear. It was transformed, repackaged, and spread across the system in ways that made it appear safer than it was.
The “American Industrial Renaissance” is an investment theme investors and allocators alike have probably been pitched several times, or at the very least heard about. Supply chains for manufactured goods have evolved to become more complex, while U.S. manufacturing employment as a share of total employment has steadily declined, leaving policy makers to grapple with the ramifications of a shrinking manufacturing base.
For all the chatter about Artificial Intelligence lifting economic growth, GDP isn’t showing it yet. We are projecting that real GDP grew at a 2.0% annual rate in the first quarter, matching the average annualized pace of growth since the peak back in late 2007, right before the Financial Panic and so-called Great Recession. In other words, mediocre growth.
Economic data released last week continued to highlight the same tension investors have been grappling with for months: moderating growth, inflation that remains “stuck” near 3 percent, and interest rates that remain the key swing factor for markets.
Markets continue to ebb and flow with every headline out of Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, but the most important message from the markets is resilience. Earnings season is off to a very strong start, with roughly a 75% beat rate, and the AI investment cycle continues to provide a powerful tailwind for equities.
It’s the big story so far in 2026. Alongside AI, geopolitical market volatility is creating dislocations for investors to target. While some are more immediate and some are longer term, the ETF wrapper offers strategies that can attack all kinds of sectors. In corporate bonds, for example, growing volatility could create opportunities.
Despite the turbulence, the global LCC market remains an enormous force. Four of the world’s 10 largest airlines—Ryanair, Southwest, IndiGo and easyJet—operate on a low-cost model. The broader budget travel market is projected to exceed $315 billion by 2028, according to Statista.
When silver demand outstrips mining and recycling output, silver users must tap into aboveground stocks. That generally means rising prices to incentivize those holding silver to give it up.
The midstream energy arena, which includes master limited partnerships (MLPs), has long lured income-hungry investors. A new ETF amplifies that proposition. The MLP & Energy Infrastructure High Income ETF (MLPI) debuted last December. It’s generating buzz, helped by the White House’s rhetoric on bolstering American energy independence, which is viewed as a potential boon for MLPs.
The Middle East war has entered a fragile ceasefire, offering tentative relief to energy and financial markets. Oil prices have eased and volatility has subsided, feeding hopes that the worst disruptions may be passing.
As of this writing, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed since February 28. Roughly 20% of the world’s seaborne oil stopped moving through the chokepoint. T
As the Q1 2026 earnings season enters its most frantic stretch, the market stands at a critical crossroads between resilient corporate fundamentals and macro-driven anxiety. While the high percentage of early beats suggests that American business remains surprisingly nimble, the coming days will determine if that momentum can withstand the Mag 7’s massive spending requirements.
Like many of you, I am inundated with information. Most of it is not useful or repetitive. Today, were going to do something different. Rather than one theme, let’s look at various bits of data that I found interesting this week.
Leaders often have trouble focusing on the longer-term. In the corporate arena, pressure to produce quarterly earnings can truncate planning horizons. In public life, popular opinion and election cycles can impose myopia. It takes a unique set of ingredients to set, and stick to, a lasting vision.
Congressional confirmation hearings tend to generate far more noise than signal, and this one was no exception. Between politicians posturing for the cameras in hopes of becoming their party’s next rising star, and nominees exercising extreme caution to avoid missteps under oath, these hearings rarely produce actionable insights.
Back-and-forth developments over the weekend around the Strait of Hormuz have added near-term volatility to energy markets. That uncertainty is feeding into oil prices and reinforcing questions about how persistent energy-driven inflation pressures could become, particularly if disruption risks continue to ebb and flow.
Maharrey identified October 2025 as the turning point when a full-scale silver squeeze took hold. Tight inventories collided with logistical disruptions and surging physical demand.
Last week’s economic data was defined by conflicting signals from the consumer. While retail figures suggest resilience, sentiment levels have plummeted to record lows. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 continued its historic rally as markets prepare for the upcoming Fed decision.
After positive earnings releases from peer semiconductors like Texas Instruments, Taiwan Semiconductor, and ASML, it was Intel’s turn to further support the notion that the semiconductor industry is doing just fine amid the recent volatility.
The primary contagion risk is sector concentration. Software and tech-enabled services represent roughly 15-20% of direct lending portfolios. A meaningful portion of these loans also resides in the Broadly Syndicated Loan (BSL) market – the bedrock of CLO ETFs – leading to a software weighting of 12–18% in typical CLO collateral pools.
The index is on the verge of doubling for the first time in this bull market – currently up ~99% – a move that would take just under 3.5 years, slightly faster than the historical average of 3.9 years. While all sectors are in positive territory over this period, leadership has been narrow with only three – technology, communication services and industrials – posting gains above 100%.
Clients may love the relative safety of cash, but many advisors know those assets could do more. A multisector bond approach for example, offers plenty of rewards for those willing to dive in. The right ETF can give tax efficient exposure to the space, providing both yield and total return.
Even before the first active dual share class fund from Dimensional launched, active mutual funds and ETFs were already roommates rather than existing in separate silos. Ben Johnson, head of client solutions at Morningstar, revealed in a LinkedIn post that active managers are increasingly using ETFs as essential tools for building portfolios.
The spring edition of our Investment Directions takes on a new look. As the weather heats up, our “summer body” of work embraces a slimmed down word count, Q&A format, and visualfirst approach – better for consuming on the go, or preferably, outdoors.
With policy changes creating more access to retirement savings plans, more workers are saving for the future. According to the Investment Company Institute, nearly 75% of households own some form of tax-advantaged retirement account such as a 401(k) or IRA.
Investors often view commercial real estate (CRE) through the narrow lens of the office sector. We think this office-only focus understates how broad the asset class is and its potential. Offices may face well-documented headwinds, but many other CRE segments appear more resilient.
Kevin Warsh's bid to become the next chair of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) unfolded amid sharp political tension, legal uncertainty, and pointed questions about his independence from President Trunp. During a combative Senate confirmation hearing, Warsh sought to reassure lawmakers that he would not allow political pressure to dictate monetary policy, even as unresolved Justice Department investigation into current Chair Jerome Powell threatens to delay his confirmation and underscores broader concerns about the politicization of the central bank.
Markets are being pulled in multiple directions. Geopolitical tensions, questions around Federal Reserve policy and the rapid rise of artificial intelligence are all competing for investor attention.
Markets have long struggled to price geopolitical risk. Part of the issue is that each flare-up tends to be viewed as a one-off volatility jolt to be weathered and then faded once there is resolution.
During and after World War II, Allied forces established airbases across remote Pacific Islands, bringing with them food, medicine, tools, and machinery that the indigenous people had never encountered before.
For ultra-high-net-worth individuals and families, wealth brings opportunity, but also extraordinary complexity. Multi-generational estate planning, concentrated equity positions, private investments, tax-efficient strategies, philanthropic structures, and family governance decisions all intersect in ways that demand thoughtful oversight.
Higher oil prices have both positive and negative effects on the municipal bond market. Investors may want to evaluate their concentration risk.
At this point, investors of all ages are well aware just how much inflation can cut into one’s spending power, whether it be for everyday expenses or big-time purchases.
Stocks have been on a bit of a rollercoaster over the past two months. If your nature is to tune out the noise and check in occasionally, you might have missed it. After a 9 percent sell-off earlier in the year, markets quickly rebounded and have recently traded at all-time highs.
The sheer complexity of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) using derivative-based strategies could have investors turning the other away. Instead, investors have been running towards them. The capital markets witnessed a surge in demand for these tactical ETF tools during the first quarter of 2026, making it a topical theme at the most recent Nasdaq-sponsored Asset Allocation Summit.
Concerns about the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy have moved back into the investment spotlight. Over the past week, both multilateral institutions and prominent policymakers have raised warnings about the potential implications of America’s expanding debt burden for Treasury markets.
New Federal Reserve (Fed) chairs don’t come along often. Since 1980, only five individuals have led the Fed: Jerome Powell is currently in his second term, Janet Yellen served one term and Alan Greenspan famously held the role for more than 18 years.
Each spring, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) releases its World Economic Outlook (WEO), a review of global growth, and the key challenges confronting the world economy. This year’s edition followed the Fund’s usual structure, but the circumstances underneath it had shifted. ]
GMO has posted a new Valuation Metrics in Emerging Debt: 1Q26
It’s a busy macro stretch as company earnings reports come in fast and furious. A focus on real data and earnings may be a welcome development for investors wary of geopolitical headlines. The team at Wall Street Horizon will keep you up to speed with the latest trends, and you can access our industry-leading forward-looking corporate event data to stay ahead of markets.
Apple Inc. (AAPL) announced Monday that Tim Cook will transition to executive chairman, while John Ternus will become CEO effective September 1. Ternus has served as senior vice president of hardware engineering since 2021. He will lead the company after 25 years focused on product development across iPhone, Mac, iPad, AirPods and Apple Watch.
Not only has infrastructure been devastated in key energy production zones, but other critical commodities like fertilizer have become much more expensive as well. It’s important for investors to respond, especially those at or near retirement. The right type of income ETFs can be that response.
Even in the event that the Middle East conflict eases and shipping resumes as usual through the Strait of Hormuz, it would likely take time for the global economy to normalize after one of the largest oil supply disruptions in decades.
When advisors and investors hear the terms “high yield” or “junk” as it relates to bonds, they understandably have some apprehension. After all, junk bonds carry elevated credit risk relative to their investment-grade peers. Hence the higher yields, which act as added compensation for the extra risk.
Fixed-income market sentiment was dominated by geopolitical headlines, particularly the conflict in the Middle East following disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz and rising oil prices, which contributed to renewed inflation concerns.
Since the Federal Reserve announced the resumption of quantitative easing (QE) in December, the central bank has expanded its balance sheet by over $200 billion.
The U.S. market story this year has been a tug-of-war between sticky inflation, slower growth, and resilient risk appetite. For fixed-income investors, that mix has produced more narrative movement than the 10-year Treasury itself.
