The equity bull market is expected to continue through the second half of 2026, supported by resilient U.S. growth, AI investment and solid earnings.
In this midyear global outlook summary, the authors revisit Vanguard’s economic and market outlooks and assess how our views have evolved since the start of the year.
The ETF market saw a push in capital away from the concentrated U.S. tech sector to defensive broad market exposure, short duration bonds, and commodities. The shift in flows is amplified by the semiconductor market pullback, interest rate uncertainty, and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Emerging markets are quietly having their best decade in a generation, and most global investors still don’t own enough. The case for investing in emerging markets today is not the tired characterisation of a high growth, low valuation opportunity.
Healthcare systems across the country are facing a difficult reality. Costs are rising faster than revenues, balance sheets are under pressure, the pacing of private market allocations are harder to manage, and liquidity has become an important topic for many organizations.
It may seem premature to focus on the November US midterm elections. Polls will shift, economic data will evolve and unexpected events will reshape the political landscape in the months ahead.
Today we’ll consider the interaction between long-term interest rates, the Fed’s limited ability to influence them, inflation and the housing market. And because home prices are the biggest concern for many households, we’ll start with a look at the latest changes there. And then look at the Federal Reserve’s likely reaction.
Election season often follows a familiar script. Investors debate congressional control, speculate on policy outcomes and search for clues about what markets might do next.
The U.S. energy sector has outperformed in 2026, driven primarily by geopolitical-related supply fears, elevated oil prices, and rising demand from the AI infrastructure buildout. While broad energy funds have also surged, investors can potentially enhance exposure by targeting specific segments of the energy market.
In June, market news continued to be dominated by the Middle East conflict as frequent flare-ups in hostilities gave way to repeated ceasefire efforts and the signing of a high-level memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran.
Semiconductor exchange-traded funds have gained more than 25% this year. Intel Corporation’s (INTC) second-quarter earnings report after today’s close could test whether that rally continues.
Google searches for "can I afford a home" are at their highest level in nearly two decades. While a Google search on its own isn't proof of anything, millions of queries might be a proxy for the national vibe.
Research Affiliates and PIMCO leadership analyze key 2026 midyear market shifts, warning of elevated U.S. and AI equity valuations.
During periods of elevated market stress, including those that see pinched corporate bonds, collateralized Loan Obligations (CLOs) often outperform other corporate bond assets. Add to that, CLOs often emerge from those rough patches in strong form, delivering impressive returns a year after downturns.
Those who are familiar with Vanguard’s ETF lineup are likely well-acquainted with the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO). After all, this fund — which provides low-cost exposure to the S&P 500 — is currently the largest fund in terms of AUM.
Equity markets have shown resilience amid persistent headwinds, supported by index evolution and earnings strength
Russ Koesterich explains gold’s recent fall and lays out his argument for why investors should continue to hold a modest position in their portfolios.
It's difficult to call any stretch a calm, quiet summer week, but this one would seemingly fit the bill. Earnings from Alphabet (GOOGL), Tesla (TSLA), and IBM (IBM) are the standouts, along with a slew of cyclicals reporting Q2 results.
Electricity demand is surging all over the world. To meet this demand, vast investments in power generation need to be made, and grids need to be overhauled and expanded. Ramping up electricity generation and delivery is extremely expensive, and electricity prices have spiked up throughout much of the developed world.
Resilient earnings, improving industrial activity and the AI investment cycle should continue to support equities, according to Putnam Equity’s Shep Perkins. But the same forces driving the market higher are also making companies harder to value.
The summer has once again brought a miasma of wildfire smoke across wide stretches of the nation, leading to hazy views and slower activity. The clouds in our outlook are not merely atmospheric. A failed ceasefire and renewed conflict in the Middle East have created new reasons to worry about economic performance.
From severe wildfires in northern Ontario to record heat across Europe, extreme weather is back in the headlines. Such events are becoming more frequent and intense, and the risks associated with them are testing the limits of insurability. With our research partners at Columbia Climate School, we examine how strains on the insurance system can transmit climate-related risks through the capital markets.
Inflation remains above target, especially the Federal Reserve’s preferred core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation measure, as choppy data have challenged the view that disinflation will proceed smoothly.
Kevin Warsh’s early overhaul of Federal Reserve communication and policymaking suggests investors should prepare for a higher-for-longer rate environment with greater uncertainty around policy signals.
The World Cup games that went into extra time were reminders of just how tough it can be for players to keep up their momentum over the long haul.
Small-cap and mid-cap stocks are outrunning large caps in 2026, and one portfolio manager says the shift has room to run.
Investors continue to benefit from two powerful tailwinds: strong stock-market performance and bond yields that remain attractive compared with much of the post-financial-crisis period. Higher yields have improved the income generated by fixed income portfolios and given investors more flexibility to balance income, liquidity, and interest rate risk.
Making his first appearance on Capitol Hill since becoming Fed Chair in May, Kevin Warsh delivered the chair's semi-annual testimony on monetary policy and the state of the economy to the U.S. House Committee on Financial Services on July 14 and the Senate Banking Committee on July 15.
AI continues to evolve. Early offerings in the 2010s around machine learning, natural language processing, and predictive analytics helped ignite the Big Data era and allow for the ingestion and processing of both structured and unstructured data at previously unimaginable speeds and volumes.
Silver is becoming increasingly discounted relative to gold, as indicated by the widening of the gold-silver ratio. In other words, silver is on sale once again.
In the Warsh Fed's new era of two-way risk, bonds offer something rare: potential downside risk mitigation that investors get paid to hold.
Last week’s dominant story was the sharp unwinding of the momentum trade that has carried the market for months. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) declined 10 per cent over the week and is down 21 per cent from June’s peak. Bear markets are defined as drawdowns of 20 per cent or more.
The prime culprit was renewed questioning of the artificial intelligence (AI) buildout given the increasing amount of capital investment needed to bring it to life and the corresponding costs for those who use the technology weighed against its potential productivity benefits.
Lock, stock and barrel, a British phrase, originally referred to the three essential components of a firearm. Over time, it evolved into shorthand for the whole package. When tensions flare in the Middle East, the global economy often feels the consequences lock, stock and barrel.
According to Bankrate’s Mortgage Rates, the national average for a 30-year fixed mortgage is 6.61%. That’s uncomfortably high and a major headwind to many prospective homebuyers, particularly those in the first-time category.
As developed economies grapple with higher debt burdens and elevated interest rates, the UK's gilt market offers important lessons for investors evaluating sovereign bonds around the world.
A major milestone for the story of the stock market this year looms this evening. Alphabet (GOOGL) will report its earnings today after the bell. Reports suggest the firm will have big, positive news to share, so investors may have questions.
The first half of 2026 was shaped by market-moving headlines. The conflict in the Middle East was the most significant story, triggering a short-term market sell-off.
The relative cheapness of Treasuries versus interest rate swaps mechanically affects how corporate bond spreads are measured, but it appears to have limited influence on how corporate bond spreads actually behave.
Chris Galipeau discusses high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
For a Federal Reserve (Fed) chairman committed to reducing noise coming from the institution and/or to changing how the Fed communicates, his first attempt to do so was not very promising. Just after Chair Warsh’s first press conference, we argued that inflation was not a choice, as he suggested during the press conference.
The market received encouraging inflation news last week as both the CPI and PPI came in below expectations, as inflation pressures moderate. A negative monthly CPI print effectively removed any concern about an immediate Federal Reserve rate hike.
LPL Research analyzes China’s declining crude imports, inflation risks, and the resilient U.S. economy driving above-trend growth.
A Roland Berger study finds family offices moving capital into infrastructure and private equity while retreating from riskier bets abroad.
VettaFi’s Midyear Market Outlook symposium Thursday saw industry leaders take on the big questions. Where is the market going? How should investors and advisors navigate uncertainty and potential volatility? Leaders from Fidelity Investments and Invesco both joined for one of the early segments, focused on innovative U.S. strategies.
GMO has posted a new 7-Year asset class forecast for 2Q 2026.
When you measure home affordability today against the metric that actually governs the check you write each month, the picture flips. By that measure, buying a home may be easier now than it was for the Boomers and Gen Xers who get blamed for everything.
As we move into the second half of 2026, U.S. large-cap stocks may be on pace to deliver their fourth straight year of double-digit gains, with the S&P 500 Index up 11.4% through July 10, 2026.
Financial markets were eventful this week, with key inflation reports, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Warsh’s first semiannual testimony to Congress, renewed Middle East tensions, and the start of earnings season all helping shape the narrative.
