As the market continues to broaden in 2026, a balanced approach matters more than ever.
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.70% in May and was up 3.62% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.25% month-over-month and down 0.43% year-over-year.
Alphabet Inc.’s addition to the Dow Jones Industrial Average marks another step in the benchmark’s effort to catch up with a market increasingly defined by Big Tech.
In the week ending June 20th, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 215,000. This represents a decrease of 12,000 from the previous week's figure and was lower than the forecast of 225,000.
On May 5, 2026, researchers from Cleveland Clinic, RIKEN, and IBM successfully simulated a 12,635-atom protein complex using quantum-centric supercomputing, a problem relevant to drug discovery that classical computing could not match at comparable speed and accuracy.
The advisory profession is entering a new era. AI will not replace advisors — but advisors who use AI will replace those who don’t. And the actuarial approach is uniquely well suited to this transition.
Gold is often misunderstood. It is not a growth asset, and it produces no cash flow. Its role is to maintain purchasing power — not outperform. It reflects the currency’s declining value.
Start with the disconnect itself. If you only looked at the Michigan headline, you’d assume the country was in a depression. However, when you look at what people are actually doing, the picture changes completely.
Roth conversions provide tax-free retirement income to hedge against future tax hikes, but they trigger an immediate tax bill. Fortunately, strategic planning can help minimize this upfront cost.
We all know that Congress is never going to allow Social Security not to be paid. This begs a number of questions. Will the shortfall be addressed by tax increases, benefit reductions, increasing the retirement age, changing the inflation measures, means testing or some combination of these and other solutions?
For long-time shareholders, the IPO is more than just a liquidity event. It represents the end of years of uncertainty and provides a rare opportunity to monetize investments that have generated extraordinary paper returns while remaining largely illiquid.
Reserve managers' decisions on EM debt go beyond investment potential—they must also weigh considerations such as governance, resources and liquidity.
In an effort to streamline retirement income planning, MassMutual Strategic Distributors has launched a behavioral framework.
In August 2025, the US President Donald Trump signed an executive order aimed at broadening the investments available in defined contribution plans (DC plans). On March 30, 2026, the US Department of Labor issued proposed guidance regarding a plan fiduciary’s selection of investments, including private market and other alternative investments, in 401(k) plans.
In this video, Chuck Carnevale explains why dividend growth investing may be one of the most predictable and dependable strategies for long-term investors, especially those seeking retirement income. While many investors view stocks as risky due to daily price volatility, Chuck argues that focusing solely on stock prices can be misleading. Instead, he emphasizes that the most reliable component of stock ownership is often the growing stream of dividends paid by high-quality companies.
Compliance risks happen when AI-enabled workflows expand faster than their governance model. It becomes a blind spot when AI solutions are built faster than the organization’s ability to map them against the right regulatory, operational, and data-governance controls.
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) pending home sales index jumped 3.8% in May to 76.8, marking its fourth consecutive monthly gain and highest level in six months.
SpaceX gained for a fourth straight day, cementing the company’s place among the world’s most valuable stocks after it surpassed Amazon.com Inc.
For insurers, fixed income remains the foundation of portfolio strategy. But while public markets have long provided unrivaled sourcing capacity and liquidity, the definition of “core” is widening.
One of the most debated topics in private credit is the size of the investment opportunity – or, in industry parlance, the total addressable market (TAM). But the way TAM is typically framed can be misleading.
Markets returned to positive territory for the week, with the turning point occurring Thursday after the announcement of a potential deal with Iran that would extend the ceasefire while reopening the Strait of Hormuz for the first time since February 27.
A massive advisor retirement wave is reshaping wealth management. Discover how $2.5 trillion in assets may fuel industry transformation.
Advisors, who have recently broken away to start their own shops, must learn to strike the right balance when getting personal with clients — and part of that requires data.
New Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh will preside over his first Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on June 16-17, stepping in at a complex moment with inflation at a three-year high as oil prices remain elevated, labor market risks easing with job growth averaging ~140,000 year to date versus only 10,000 last year, and hawkish voices on the Fed gaining traction.
For many investors, retirement planning becomes most tangible at the start and end of the year. Goals are set in January, then revisited during year-end tax and financial planning discussions. But the middle of the year offers an equally valuable opportunity: a chance to evaluate progress, reassess assumptions, and make adjustments before small issues become larger challenges.
The US insurance industry recently joined the fossil-fuel industry in its fight to avoid being sued over the damage oil, gas and coal emissions have done to the planet. Given that insurers are supposedly among the world’s biggest sufferers of those same climate-fueled losses, this was a perplexing choice — until you think about why Big Insurance and Big Oil might be on the same team.
There are two processes that we cannot escape: aging and math. This applies not only to human beings but also to large government social-insurance programs.
Builder confidence edged lower in June as ongoing affordability challenges continue to affect the housing market. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) fell 2 points from May to 35 this month, marking the 26th consecutive negative reading.
During this time of year, we like to take stock of what happened in the first half of the year and compare it with the expectations we had at the beginning of the year when we published our full-year outlooks.
New York City’s pension system said it’s seeking bids for roughly $92 billion of stock index-tracking funds now overseen by BlackRock Inc. and State Street Investment Management.
Companies are also looking for ways to cut workers’ costs by offering plans that charge workers less but restrict them to a narrower group of providers.
Join the experts at MassMutual Strategic Distributors for an educational webcast exploring income riders and how to evaluation variable annuities beyond surface level features so you can match the right rider to each client’s investor profile and retirement goals.
In this video, Chuck Carnevale responds to a viewer's question about building a retirement income portfolio for a 63-year-old investor. Rather than recommending specific stocks, Chuck focuses on the process he uses to identify high-quality income investments using the principles of value investing and the FAST Graphs platform.
While owning a significant amount of a successful stock can be incredibly lucrative – especially in a company on the rise – the more you own of a single equity, the more closely your personal financial fate is tied to its performance.
May saw 148 new ETF launches in May alone – although launch figures were partially driven by a 37-fund rollout from Corgi Insurance Services.
For more than four decades, PIMCO’s Secular Forum has provided a disciplined framework for stepping back from short-term market noise to assess the structural forces that will shape the global economy and markets over the next five years. Yet rarely has this exercise been more consequential than it has recently.
The Senate passed $70 billion immigration enforcement funding bill, Capitol Hill struggles to find consensus on how to regulate AI, and the Trump Accounts app is live.
Every dollar in a growth equity index reflects two decisions: which companies to own and how much of each to hold. Indexes form intricate systematic rules to make the first decision. The second decision—position sizing—is usually determined by market-cap weighting.
Inflation affects everything from grocery bills to rent, making the Consumer Price Index (CPI) one of the most closely watched economic indicators. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) tracks this by categorizing spending into eight categories, each weighted by its relative importance.
Inflation surged to 4.2% year-over-year in May, hitting its highest level in over three years. The headline figure for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was consistent with the forecast, driven primarily by cost increases in energy, shelter, and food.
Ratings that underpin a growing slice of the $1.8 trillion private-credit market, the hottest corner of Wall Street in recent years, are systematically understating investment risk, according to a new study by Columbia Business School researchers.
LPL Research analyzes bond markets as yields rise, exploring Fed policy expectations, inflation trends, and whether bad news is already priced into Treasuries.
Equity markets should remain supported by strong earnings and capital investment trends through 2026, but market concentration and macro risks leave less room for error.
While job growth has reaccelerated, supporting consumption, the underlying income picture is less encouraging.
Investors have enjoyed a favorable run. If the year ended today, it would mark the seventh time in the last nine years that stock portfolios generated double-digit returns. Housing prices remain near historic highs, while bond investors have benefited from elevated yields over the past three years.
Crypto has clearly matured considerably as an asset class, and it's exciting to hear more advisors speak about the opportunity it presents — without being scared away by its volatility. The real question today is how much of a portfolio allocation is appropriate given their specific objectives and constraints.
Probably the most popular insight to make its way from finance theory into everyday usage is that "diversification is the only free lunch" in investing. The idea dates back to Harry Markowitz in 1952. He, and those building on his work, demonstrated that in an efficient market, investors shouldn't earn extra return for bearing company-specific risks that can be diversified away.
Existing home sales reached their highest level of the year in May, rising 3.2% after a 0.7% increase in April. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), sales reached a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.17 million units, surpassing the projected 4.07 million.
Interactive Brokers Group Inc. is offering exchange-traded funds from BlackRock Inc. in savings plans in Europe, the latest platform to provide the booming product that’s become increasingly popular with mom-and-pop investors on the continent.
The history of megacap initial public offerings shows that the stocks usually slump in the first year of trading. But upcoming listings from SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI are big enough and systemically important enough to the market that those analogies may not apply.
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index dropped 0.6 points to 95.3, reaching its lowest level since October 2024. The index remains below its historical average for a third straight month.
There is an old adage that the stock market climbs a wall of worry, which describes its ability to keep rising even amid negative economic news or events. This defies logic, yet I have watched it prove true time after time.
It’s no secret that investors are on the lookout for opportunities in their fixed income portfolios. This is especially true in today’s shifting landscape. Equities are hot, perhaps too hot, and many investors want strong performances out of their bonds in order to keep up.
Fertilizers sit at the center of this transmission mechanism. As much as a third of the global supply of these commodities passes through the Strait of Hormuz, which has largely been closed for three months. This has triggered shortages and a price spike.
Labor market fundamentals have improved meaningfully from last year’s near standstill while inflation has moved higher, driven in part by the Iran conflict and the resulting increase in petroleum and gasoline prices. As a result, Federal Reserve (Fed) officials are likely becoming more concerned about the risk of broader inflation pressures, a theme highlighted in this week’s ISM Manufacturing and Services PMI releases.
As we go to press, fighting in the Mideast has escalated, sending crude higher, but stocks, in early Monday trade, have shown remarkable stability following Friday’s deep selloff.
We are halfway through 2026, and the planning priorities that have defined our client work this year are in focus. Some of what we are doing is recurring: fixing compliance errors, correcting quarterly estimate miscalculations, and keeping tax positions aligned with economic reality.
What does the ratio of unemployment claims to the civilian labor force tell us about where we are in the business cycle and recession risk?
My industry soundings are far more upbeat: When it happens, it would start as a trickle, but very quickly — in just a handful of weeks, if not days — transform into an oil flood. I’m on the side of the bears, as you may have guessed.
Credit heavyweights like DoubleLine Capital LP and Oaktree Capital Management are buying debt now that can perform well if the artificial intelligence boom turns into a credit bust.
US stocks bounced back on Monday from the worst rout this year, as a selloff in technology stocks eased and traders assessed flaring tensions in the Middle East, which supported oil prices and energy shares.
With tech stocks pushing to new highs on enthusiasm around transformational technologies, the real question isn’t just momentum. It’s whether markets are becoming frothy, even bubble‑like, reminiscent of the dot‑com era. We don’t think so.
Trade policy returned to the spotlight this week as the United States announced new tariffs on 60 countries, with rates of either 10% or 12.5% depending on the trading partner.
Confirming that the bar is high for artificial intelligence (AI) semiconductor makers’ earnings reports, shares of Broadcom (AVGO) plunged 12.59% on June 4, a day after the chip giant delivered quarterly results. The results weren’t the problem. It was a lack of a positive update regarding AI semiconductor demand.
For years, the retirement industry has framed the challenge the same way: Participants aren’t engaged enough. Employers need better communication. Advisors need to educate more.
In this episode of the Money Metals Midweek Memo, host Mike Maharrey argues that reports of inflation's demise have been greatly exaggerated. Drawing on both recent economic data and historical parallels, he contends that the United States may be entering a second wave of a broader long-term inflationary cycle reminiscent of the inflationary era of the 1960s and 1970s.
SoftBank Group Corp.’s payments unit is buying the life insurance unit of T&D Holdings Inc. for ¥134.3 billion ($840 million) to broaden its offerings and better compete in Japan’s ballooning fintech market.
Currencies in the developing world sank after a blowout US jobs report provided the clearest sign yet that the labor market is breaking out of a prolonged period of lackluster hiring, undercutting the case for rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.
The largest ski resort in the US, in a corner of Utah long popular with wealthy travelers and second-home buyers, is expanding — and turning to the municipal bond market to help pay for it.
When it comes to systematic investing, numbers tell only part of the story. Traditional quantitative models rely on prices, earnings, and balance sheet data, but words matter too.
There are short duration bonds and corresponding ETFs. For advisors and fixed income investors who really want to minimize interest rate risk, there are ultra-short alternatives. Those products are worth considering this year.
When someone told me recently that her favorite use of AI is for financial advice, I was horrified. I am a retirement economist, and my first reaction was self pity: Now I know how doctors feel when people use AI for medical questions.
There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of these indicators: nonfarm employment. In May, total nonfarm payrolls increased by 172,000 while the unemployment rate remained at 4.3%.
The stock market keeps setting records. Bitcoin has minted millionaires. Gold has peaked at new levels. Yet one of the most popular trades is to sit in cash or, more precisely, money-market funds.
Soaring US power bills are threatening to claim their biggest victim yet — the nation’s largest electric grid operator.
Get ready for an absolute blockbuster of a summer, and then some. While mega-cap tech stocks have been busy hogging the headlines on the corporate event calendar, a quiet transformation has been taking place just off the exchange floors. The IPO market, which spent the better part of the last few years stuck in a defensive crouch, has officially smashed the accelerator to start 2026.
It’s May 2026 and once again civilization and financial markets have made it 5-ish months into a new year without self-combusting like a Spinal Tap drummer. It is important to note that dozens of people and stocks spontaneously combust every year, but despite the increasing universality of AI, it’s “just not really widely reported.”
For weeks now, media reports have been suggesting that Washington and Tehran are moving closer to a memorandum of understanding (MOU). In practical terms, that would extend the current ceasefire by roughly 60 days and create a window to negotiate a more durable peace agreement.
The rise in U.S. Treasury (UST) yields, specifically the ten-year note, since late February has captured the attention of global investors in a very visible fashion. Just a couple of weeks ago, headlines were blaring that the UST 10-year yield had reached its highest level since the beginning of 2025, leaving market participants to wonder: What comes next?
While insurance coverage has broadly kept pace with rising catastrophe exposure, the protection gap — in absolute terms — has gone up as the value of exposed assets has grown, the Swiss Re Institute said on Wednesday.
Here is a look at real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq composite since their 2000 highs. We've updated this through the May 2026 close.
On Wednesday, June 3, Wellington Management and The Hartford announced that Wellington will be acquiring Hartford Funds. Once the acquisition is complete, Hartford Funds will operate under Wellington’s brand through the firm’s U.S. Wealth business.
A seemingly endless appetite for buying US stock dips has propelled Vanguard Group’s S&P 500-tracking ETF past $1 trillion in assets, making it the first fund of its kind to reach a milestone once thought unimaginable for the ETF industry.
Cliffwater LLC’s flagship private credit fund capped redemptions at 5% in the second quarter after investors looked to pull about 17% of shares, in a sign of enduring pressure on the $1.8 trillion market.
The IPO market may be entering one of its largest cycles in years, but the next wave may be defined less by breadth than by scale. Instead of hundreds of companies listing, a smaller group of AI and strategic infrastructure leaders could reset the market on their own.
Foreign investors led by the likes of Stanley Druckenmiller and major Wall Street banks are returning to Argentine stocks this year after some had exited ahead of 2025’s volatile midterm election cycle.
Wealth today is more complex than ever. Investments, taxes, estate planning, insurance, and even family dynamics are deeply interconnected, and decisions in one area can have meaningful consequences in another.
Stocks extended their advance for a ninth consecutive week, with the S&P 500 rising more than 5 percent in May on the heels of April’s 10 percent rally. This nine-week run coincides with the market’s March 30 bottom, when early signs of a potential off-ramp or ceasefire in the Middle East began to emerge.
Learn what's in store for the remainder of 2026 and the challenges that lie ahead in our mid-year outlook for U.S. stocks and the economy.
Last week, several Fed members signaled the central bank may have to raise interest rates to cool price inflation.
Insurance & Annuities
Market Broadening, AI, and the Case for Diversification
As the market continues to broaden in 2026, a balanced approach matters more than ever.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Personal Income
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.70% in May and was up 3.62% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.25% month-over-month and down 0.43% year-over-year.
Alphabet’s Dow Debut Shows Index Headache in Tech-Driven Economy
Alphabet Inc.’s addition to the Dow Jones Industrial Average marks another step in the benchmark’s effort to catch up with a market increasingly defined by Big Tech.
Initial Unemployment Claims Down 12K, Lower Than Expected
In the week ending June 20th, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 215,000. This represents a decrease of 12,000 from the previous week's figure and was lower than the forecast of 225,000.
Why the Tech Giants Are Always in the Room
On May 5, 2026, researchers from Cleveland Clinic, RIKEN, and IBM successfully simulated a 12,635-atom protein complex using quantum-centric supercomputing, a problem relevant to drug discovery that classical computing could not match at comparable speed and accuracy.
Why It’s Time for Advisors to Add the Actuarial Approach — & Copilot — to Their Retirement Toolkit
The advisory profession is entering a new era. AI will not replace advisors — but advisors who use AI will replace those who don’t. And the actuarial approach is uniquely well suited to this transition.
The Price of Gold is Less About Gold & More About the Erosion of the Dollar
Gold is often misunderstood. It is not a growth asset, and it produces no cash flow. Its role is to maintain purchasing power — not outperform. It reflects the currency’s declining value.
The Consumer Sentiment Disconnect From Economic Reality
Start with the disconnect itself. If you only looked at the Michigan headline, you’d assume the country was in a depression. However, when you look at what people are actually doing, the picture changes completely.
Three Ways to Offset Income From a Roth Conversion
Roth conversions provide tax-free retirement income to hedge against future tax hikes, but they trigger an immediate tax bill. Fortunately, strategic planning can help minimize this upfront cost.
Social Insecurity, Surprise Edition
We all know that Congress is never going to allow Social Security not to be paid. This begs a number of questions. Will the shortfall be addressed by tax increases, benefit reductions, increasing the retirement age, changing the inflation measures, means testing or some combination of these and other solutions?
Morgan Stanley, Temasek Set for Big Pay Day From NSE’s India IPO
For long-time shareholders, the IPO is more than just a liquidity event. It represents the end of years of uncertainty and provides a rare opportunity to monetize investments that have generated extraordinary paper returns while remaining largely illiquid.
EM Debt—What Reserve Managers Should Keep in Mind
Reserve managers' decisions on EM debt go beyond investment potential—they must also weigh considerations such as governance, resources and liquidity.
MassMutual on Strategies for Maximizing Retirement Income
In an effort to streamline retirement income planning, MassMutual Strategic Distributors has launched a behavioral framework.
Private Markets in Retirement Plans: Unlocking Opportunities
In August 2025, the US President Donald Trump signed an executive order aimed at broadening the investments available in defined contribution plans (DC plans). On March 30, 2026, the US Department of Labor issued proposed guidance regarding a plan fiduciary’s selection of investments, including private market and other alternative investments, in 401(k) plans.
The Closest Thing to Guaranteed investing Success
In this video, Chuck Carnevale explains why dividend growth investing may be one of the most predictable and dependable strategies for long-term investors, especially those seeking retirement income. While many investors view stocks as risky due to daily price volatility, Chuck argues that focusing solely on stock prices can be misleading. Instead, he emphasizes that the most reliable component of stock ownership is often the growing stream of dividends paid by high-quality companies.
Compliance Without an AI Blind Spot
Compliance risks happen when AI-enabled workflows expand faster than their governance model. It becomes a blind spot when AI solutions are built faster than the organization’s ability to map them against the right regulatory, operational, and data-governance controls.
Pending Home Sales Jump to 6-Month High
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) pending home sales index jumped 3.8% in May to 76.8, marking its fourth consecutive monthly gain and highest level in six months.
SpaceX Extends Gains Into Fourth Day as Post-IPO Rally Hits 58%
SpaceX gained for a fourth straight day, cementing the company’s place among the world’s most valuable stocks after it surpassed Amazon.com Inc.
How Fixed-Income Investing Is Evolving for European Insurers
For insurers, fixed income remains the foundation of portfolio strategy. But while public markets have long provided unrivaled sourcing capacity and liquidity, the definition of “core” is widening.
How Large Is Private Credit’s Total Addressable Market, Really?
One of the most debated topics in private credit is the size of the investment opportunity – or, in industry parlance, the total addressable market (TAM). But the way TAM is typically framed can be misleading.
Markets Rally as Investors Weigh Inflation, the Fed and SpaceX IPO
Markets returned to positive territory for the week, with the turning point occurring Thursday after the announcement of a potential deal with Iran that would extend the ceasefire while reopening the Strait of Hormuz for the first time since February 27.
Navigating the Impending Advisor Retirement Wave
A massive advisor retirement wave is reshaping wealth management. Discover how $2.5 trillion in assets may fuel industry transformation.
How to Inject Your Personal Story Into Client Service, Marketing
Advisors, who have recently broken away to start their own shops, must learn to strike the right balance when getting personal with clients — and part of that requires data.
Warsh’s First FOMC Meeting Will Put Policy and Fed Independence in Focus
New Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh will preside over his first Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on June 16-17, stepping in at a complex moment with inflation at a three-year high as oil prices remain elevated, labor market risks easing with job growth averaging ~140,000 year to date versus only 10,000 last year, and hawkish voices on the Fed gaining traction.
A Midyear Retirement Readiness Check
For many investors, retirement planning becomes most tangible at the start and end of the year. Goals are set in January, then revisited during year-end tax and financial planning discussions. But the middle of the year offers an equally valuable opportunity: a chance to evaluate progress, reassess assumptions, and make adjustments before small issues become larger challenges.
Insurers Endure Self-Harm to Side With Big Oil
The US insurance industry recently joined the fossil-fuel industry in its fight to avoid being sued over the damage oil, gas and coal emissions have done to the planet. Given that insurers are supposedly among the world’s biggest sufferers of those same climate-fueled losses, this was a perplexing choice — until you think about why Big Insurance and Big Oil might be on the same team.
Raise Social Security Taxes — and Cut Benefits, Too
There are two processes that we cannot escape: aging and math. This applies not only to human beings but also to large government social-insurance programs.
NAHB Housing Market Index: Affordability Challenges Continue
Builder confidence edged lower in June as ongoing affordability challenges continue to affect the housing market. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) fell 2 points from May to 35 this month, marking the 26th consecutive negative reading.
Schwab Market Perspective: Mid-Year Outlook
During this time of year, we like to take stock of what happened in the first half of the year and compare it with the expectations we had at the beginning of the year when we published our full-year outlooks.
NYC Pensions Seeks Bids for Index Funds Run by BlackRock, State Street
New York City’s pension system said it’s seeking bids for roughly $92 billion of stock index-tracking funds now overseen by BlackRock Inc. and State Street Investment Management.
US Workers’ Health Insurance Costs Set to Rise, Survey Finds
Companies are also looking for ways to cut workers’ costs by offering plans that charge workers less but restrict them to a narrower group of providers.
Variable annuities, income riders, and retirement income innovations
Join the experts at MassMutual Strategic Distributors for an educational webcast exploring income riders and how to evaluation variable annuities beyond surface level features so you can match the right rider to each client’s investor profile and retirement goals.
Building a Retirement Paycheck: A Dividend Growth Portfolio Based on Value Investing Principles
In this video, Chuck Carnevale responds to a viewer's question about building a retirement income portfolio for a 63-year-old investor. Rather than recommending specific stocks, Chuck focuses on the process he uses to identify high-quality income investments using the principles of value investing and the FAST Graphs platform.
Concentrated Equity Risk: Is it time to Break your Concentration?
While owning a significant amount of a successful stock can be incredibly lucrative – especially in a company on the rise – the more you own of a single equity, the more closely your personal financial fate is tied to its performance.
The Most Compelling ETF Launches in Q2
May saw 148 new ETF launches in May alone – although launch figures were partially driven by a 37-fund rollout from Corgi Insurance Services.
Rupture and Resilience
For more than four decades, PIMCO’s Secular Forum has provided a disciplined framework for stepping back from short-term market noise to assess the structural forces that will shape the global economy and markets over the next five years. Yet rarely has this exercise been more consequential than it has recently.
Washington: What to Watch Now
The Senate passed $70 billion immigration enforcement funding bill, Capitol Hill struggles to find consensus on how to regulate AI, and the Trump Accounts app is live.
Growth Without Price Distortion
Every dollar in a growth equity index reflects two decisions: which companies to own and how much of each to hold. Indexes form intricate systematic rules to make the first decision. The second decision—position sizing—is usually determined by market-cap weighting.
Inside the Consumer Price Index: May 2026
Inflation affects everything from grocery bills to rent, making the Consumer Price Index (CPI) one of the most closely watched economic indicators. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) tracks this by categorizing spending into eight categories, each weighted by its relative importance.
Consumer Price Index: Inflation at 4.2% in May
Inflation surged to 4.2% year-over-year in May, hitting its highest level in over three years. The headline figure for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was consistent with the forecast, driven primarily by cost increases in energy, shelter, and food.
Inflated ‘Private’ Ratings Are Masking Credit Risk, Columbia Study Says
Ratings that underpin a growing slice of the $1.8 trillion private-credit market, the hottest corner of Wall Street in recent years, are systematically understating investment risk, according to a new study by Columbia Business School researchers.
Is Bad News Already Priced into the Bond Market?
LPL Research analyzes bond markets as yields rise, exploring Fed policy expectations, inflation trends, and whether bad news is already priced into Treasuries.
Global Equity Mid-Year Outlook 2026
Equity markets should remain supported by strong earnings and capital investment trends through 2026, but market concentration and macro risks leave less room for error.
Strong Jobs Data and Inflation Keep Pressure on the Fed
While job growth has reaccelerated, supporting consumption, the underlying income picture is less encouraging.
A Time to Plan
Investors have enjoyed a favorable run. If the year ended today, it would mark the seventh time in the last nine years that stock portfolios generated double-digit returns. Housing prices remain near historic highs, while bond investors have benefited from elevated yields over the past three years.
Volatility Is No Longer Keeping Crypto out of Portfolios
Crypto has clearly matured considerably as an asset class, and it's exciting to hear more advisors speak about the opportunity it presents — without being scared away by its volatility. The real question today is how much of a portfolio allocation is appropriate given their specific objectives and constraints.
Where’s My Lunch?
Probably the most popular insight to make its way from finance theory into everyday usage is that "diversification is the only free lunch" in investing. The idea dates back to Harry Markowitz in 1952. He, and those building on his work, demonstrated that in an efficient market, investors shouldn't earn extra return for bearing company-specific risks that can be diversified away.
Existing Home Sales Reach Highest Level of 2026
Existing home sales reached their highest level of the year in May, rising 3.2% after a 0.7% increase in April. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), sales reached a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.17 million units, surpassing the projected 4.07 million.
Interactive Brokers Offers BlackRock ETFs in Savings Plans
Interactive Brokers Group Inc. is offering exchange-traded funds from BlackRock Inc. in savings plans in Europe, the latest platform to provide the booming product that’s become increasingly popular with mom-and-pop investors on the continent.
SpaceX, Anthropic, OpenAI Can Rewrite History for Megacap IPOs
The history of megacap initial public offerings shows that the stocks usually slump in the first year of trading. But upcoming listings from SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI are big enough and systemically important enough to the market that those analogies may not apply.
NFIB Small Business Survey: Lowest Level Since October 2024
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index dropped 0.6 points to 95.3, reaching its lowest level since October 2024. The index remains below its historical average for a third straight month.
Managing the Disconnect Between High Markets and Consumer Worry
There is an old adage that the stock market climbs a wall of worry, which describes its ability to keep rising even amid negative economic news or events. This defies logic, yet I have watched it prove true time after time.
American Century’s Greenblath Talks Spring Corporate Bond Shifts
It’s no secret that investors are on the lookout for opportunities in their fixed income portfolios. This is especially true in today’s shifting landscape. Equities are hot, perhaps too hot, and many investors want strong performances out of their bonds in order to keep up.
Fertilizer and Food
Fertilizers sit at the center of this transmission mechanism. As much as a third of the global supply of these commodities passes through the Strait of Hormuz, which has largely been closed for three months. This has triggered shortages and a price spike.
Employment and Inflation: Not Supportive of Rate Cuts
Labor market fundamentals have improved meaningfully from last year’s near standstill while inflation has moved higher, driven in part by the Iran conflict and the resulting increase in petroleum and gasoline prices. As a result, Federal Reserve (Fed) officials are likely becoming more concerned about the risk of broader inflation pressures, a theme highlighted in this week’s ISM Manufacturing and Services PMI releases.
Mideast Escalation, Strong Jobs and Resilient Economy Delay Cuts
As we go to press, fighting in the Mideast has escalated, sending crude higher, but stocks, in early Monday trade, have shown remarkable stability following Friday’s deep selloff.
Mid-Year 2026: 9 Tax Planning Strategies We Are Working On With Clients Right Now
We are halfway through 2026, and the planning priorities that have defined our client work this year are in focus. Some of what we are doing is recurring: fixing compliance errors, correcting quarterly estimate miscalculations, and keeping tax positions aligned with economic reality.
Unemployment Claims and the CLF as a Recession Indicator: May 2026
What does the ratio of unemployment claims to the civilian labor force tell us about where we are in the business cycle and recession risk?
Brace for a Flood of Oil as Soon as Hormuz Reopens
My industry soundings are far more upbeat: When it happens, it would start as a trickle, but very quickly — in just a handful of weeks, if not days — transform into an oil flood. I’m on the side of the bears, as you may have guessed.
DoubleLine, Oaktree Brace for Potential AI Pain
Credit heavyweights like DoubleLine Capital LP and Oaktree Capital Management are buying debt now that can perform well if the artificial intelligence boom turns into a credit bust.
US Stocks Rebound From Selloff as Nvidia Leads Big-Tech Gains
US stocks bounced back on Monday from the worst rout this year, as a selloff in technology stocks eased and traders assessed flaring tensions in the Middle East, which supported oil prices and energy shares.
Five Ways Today’s Market Cycle Differs From the Dot-Com Era
With tech stocks pushing to new highs on enthusiasm around transformational technologies, the real question isn’t just momentum. It’s whether markets are becoming frothy, even bubble‑like, reminiscent of the dot‑com era. We don’t think so.
Tariffs Re-Enter the Spotlight
Trade policy returned to the spotlight this week as the United States announced new tariffs on 60 countries, with rates of either 10% or 12.5% depending on the trading partner.
Broadcom’s Post-Earnings Slide Highlights These ETFs
Confirming that the bar is high for artificial intelligence (AI) semiconductor makers’ earnings reports, shares of Broadcom (AVGO) plunged 12.59% on June 4, a day after the chip giant delivered quarterly results. The results weren’t the problem. It was a lack of a positive update regarding AI semiconductor demand.
Workplace Benefits: It’s Not a Communication Gap. It’s a Translation Opportunity.
For years, the retirement industry has framed the challenge the same way: Participants aren’t engaged enough. Employers need better communication. Advisors need to educate more.
Inflation's Comeback: Why the Fed May Be Losing the Fight Again
In this episode of the Money Metals Midweek Memo, host Mike Maharrey argues that reports of inflation's demise have been greatly exaggerated. Drawing on both recent economic data and historical parallels, he contends that the United States may be entering a second wave of a broader long-term inflationary cycle reminiscent of the inflationary era of the 1960s and 1970s.
SoftBank’s PayPay to Buy T&D’s Life Insurer for $840 Million
SoftBank Group Corp.’s payments unit is buying the life insurance unit of T&D Holdings Inc. for ¥134.3 billion ($840 million) to broaden its offerings and better compete in Japan’s ballooning fintech market.
Emerging-Market Currencies Sink on Gangbuster US Jobs Report
Currencies in the developing world sank after a blowout US jobs report provided the clearest sign yet that the labor market is breaking out of a prolonged period of lackluster hiring, undercutting the case for rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.
Park City Ski-Area Turns to Luxury Dirt Deal Ahead of Olympics
The largest ski resort in the US, in a corner of Utah long popular with wealthy travelers and second-home buyers, is expanding — and turning to the municipal bond market to help pay for it.
Reading Between the Lines: NLP for Long-Horizon Factor Investing (Part 1 of 2)
When it comes to systematic investing, numbers tell only part of the story. Traditional quantitative models rely on prices, earnings, and balance sheet data, but words matter too.
Good Reasons to Keep It Short With Bond ETFs in 2026
There are short duration bonds and corresponding ETFs. For advisors and fixed income investors who really want to minimize interest rate risk, there are ultra-short alternatives. Those products are worth considering this year.
Can AI Financial Advice Help You Retire More Comfortably?
When someone told me recently that her favorite use of AI is for financial advice, I was horrified. I am a retirement economist, and my first reaction was self pity: Now I know how doctors feel when people use AI for medical questions.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: May 2026 Employment
There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of these indicators: nonfarm employment. In May, total nonfarm payrolls increased by 172,000 while the unemployment rate remained at 4.3%.
Chilling in Money-Market Funds is the Hot Retail Strategy Now
The stock market keeps setting records. Bitcoin has minted millionaires. Gold has peaked at new levels. Yet one of the most popular trades is to sit in cash or, more precisely, money-market funds.
AI Data Center Boom Risks Breakup of Biggest US Power Grid Operator
Soaring US power bills are threatening to claim their biggest victim yet — the nation’s largest electric grid operator.
The New-Issue Window Flies Open: Inside 2026's Red-Hot First-Half IPO Rush
Get ready for an absolute blockbuster of a summer, and then some. While mega-cap tech stocks have been busy hogging the headlines on the corporate event calendar, a quiet transformation has been taking place just off the exchange floors. The IPO market, which spent the better part of the last few years stuck in a defensive crouch, has officially smashed the accelerator to start 2026.
Venus and Mars are Alright Tonight?
It’s May 2026 and once again civilization and financial markets have made it 5-ish months into a new year without self-combusting like a Spinal Tap drummer. It is important to note that dozens of people and stocks spontaneously combust every year, but despite the increasing universality of AI, it’s “just not really widely reported.”
Oil Market Underestimates Frictions Beyond a Deal
For weeks now, media reports have been suggesting that Washington and Tehran are moving closer to a memorandum of understanding (MOU). In practical terms, that would extend the current ceasefire by roughly 60 days and create a window to negotiate a more durable peace agreement.
Are Bessent’s Hands Tied?
The rise in U.S. Treasury (UST) yields, specifically the ten-year note, since late February has captured the attention of global investors in a very visible fashion. Just a couple of weeks ago, headlines were blaring that the UST 10-year yield had reached its highest level since the beginning of 2025, leaving market participants to wonder: What comes next?
Natural-Disaster Insurance Gap Now Exceeds $420 Billion Globally
While insurance coverage has broadly kept pace with rising catastrophe exposure, the protection gap — in absolute terms — has gone up as the value of exposed assets has grown, the Swiss Re Institute said on Wednesday.
The S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq: Real Returns Since 2000 Peak (May 2026)
Here is a look at real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq composite since their 2000 highs. We've updated this through the May 2026 close.
Wellington Announces Plan to Buy Hartford Funds for $1.9B
On Wednesday, June 3, Wellington Management and The Hartford announced that Wellington will be acquiring Hartford Funds. Once the acquisition is complete, Hartford Funds will operate under Wellington’s brand through the firm’s U.S. Wealth business.
Vanguard’s VOO Hits $1 Trillion of Assets in ETF Industry First
A seemingly endless appetite for buying US stock dips has propelled Vanguard Group’s S&P 500-tracking ETF past $1 trillion in assets, making it the first fund of its kind to reach a milestone once thought unimaginable for the ETF industry.
Cliffwater Private Credit Fund Stung by 17% Redemption Requests
Cliffwater LLC’s flagship private credit fund capped redemptions at 5% in the second quarter after investors looked to pull about 17% of shares, in a sign of enduring pressure on the $1.8 trillion market.
Four Watchpoints for 2026’s Potential Mega IPO Class
The IPO market may be entering one of its largest cycles in years, but the next wave may be defined less by breadth than by scale. Instead of hundreds of companies listing, a smaller group of AI and strategic infrastructure leaders could reset the market on their own.
Druckenmiller Leads Wall Street’s Return to Argentine Stocks
Foreign investors led by the likes of Stanley Druckenmiller and major Wall Street banks are returning to Argentine stocks this year after some had exited ahead of 2025’s volatile midterm election cycle.
The Value of an Integrated Wealth Strategy
Wealth today is more complex than ever. Investments, taxes, estate planning, insurance, and even family dynamics are deeply interconnected, and decisions in one area can have meaningful consequences in another.
AI Drives Stock Market Higher Despite Uneven Growth
Stocks extended their advance for a ninth consecutive week, with the S&P 500 rising more than 5 percent in May on the heels of April’s 10 percent rally. This nine-week run coincides with the market’s March 30 bottom, when early signs of a potential off-ramp or ceasefire in the Middle East began to emerge.
2026 Mid-Year Outlook: U.S. Stocks and Economy
Learn what's in store for the remainder of 2026 and the challenges that lie ahead in our mid-year outlook for U.S. stocks and the economy.
Rate Hikes: The Right Medicine at the Wrong Time
Last week, several Fed members signaled the central bank may have to raise interest rates to cool price inflation.