The Emerging Markets Channel

Winning Is Easy; Governing Is Hard

Donald Trump swept into office on a populist wave. His promise of greater growth for the United States economy resonated with a large part of those disappointed with stagnant wages and a lack of opportunity. He said he would bring manufacturing jobs back and provide better healthcare coverage at a lower cost.

Emerging Markets: The Clouds Lift

As 2017 progresses and the priorities of the Trump administration take shape, the outlook for emerging markets (EM) has evolved from uncertain to promising.

7 Reasons to Be Bullish on Emerging Europe

For the month of March, the preliminary purchasing manager’s index (PMI) for the eurozone reached 56.7, its highest reading since April 2011. Significant gains were made in new work and backlogs of work, employment and service sector job creation.

Beyond the Headlines: Finding Opportunities in Today’s Markets

With markets reacting in part to geopolitical events, it’s hard not to be distracted by news headlines. To help sift through some of the noise, several of our senior investment leaders recently participated in a roundtable discussion of the events shaping the global markets today, the implications for investors and where they see potential opportunities ahead.

It’s Tsar, Not Comrade

February 12th was the 100-year anniversary of the Russian Revolution. Surprisingly, the Kremlin has taken a very low-key stance on the centenary. We believe the government’s decision to downplay this historical event offers an insight into Russian President Putin’s thinking.

Men Without Work

I have been promising a review of Nicholas Eberstadt’s very important book, Men Without Work: America’s Invisible Crisis. The book is relatively short at 216 pages, but it is packed with meaty facts and insights.

Regional Fed Manufacturing Overview: Regional Average Highest Since 2004

The Federal Reserve System consists of twelve Federal Reserve Banks, twenty five branches, and the Board of Governors in Washington, D.C. Each bank serves a larger regional district. Five out of the twelve Federal Reserve Regional Districts currently publish monthly data on regional manufacturing: Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Richmond, and Philadelphia. The average of the five for March is 19.9, up from last month's 16.8 and is its highest since 2004.

China in 2017: A Year of Uncertainty

The paper discusses a wide range of issues facing China’s economy in 2017, from the selection of Xi Jinping’s successor, to relations with U.S. President Donald Trump, to the outlook for China’s One Belt One Road initiatives in Asian infrastructure development. China’s currency volatility should continue this year, but geopolitical risks to its economy may be overstated.

The Temptations of a Resilient China

Another growth scare has come and gone for the Chinese economy, with export growth up strongly in the first two months of 2017. For the country's policymakers, the challenge now is to stay focused on executing their domestic strategy, rather than seeking to replace the US at the center of the global system.

Strategist: Keep Calm, Tax Reform Is On Its Way

Regardless of its failure to be repealed, tax reform is on its way. Just today, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin reassured Americans that we could still expect “comprehensive” tax reform by August. It’s also worth recalling that, even though he failed to reform health care during his eight years in office, President Bill Clinton still managed to tackle tax reform with the Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1993.

Canada’s ‘Wait and See’ Budget

As expected, Ottawa presented a cautious budget for 2017 that focused more on implementation than on bold new initiatives, and there is much to commend about Finance Minister Bill Morneau’s wait-and-see approach.

ECRI Weekly Leading Index: WLI Down from Last Week

Today's release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 144.6, down 0.8 from the previous week. Year-over-year the four-week moving average of the indicator is now at 10.96%, down from 11.76% the previous week. The WLI Growth indicator is now at 9.0, also down from the previous week.

Why Things Aren’t What They Used to Be in Emerging Markets

The prospect of stabilizing commodity prices and improving corporate earnings has helped rebuild investor interest in emerging markets over the past year. But returning investors may find the constituents of today’s emerging markets are very different from those of the past.

The Value of the U.S. Dollar: Where to Next?

The value of the US dollar is a key player across global economies & markets. How is the value shifting and what might it mean for investors?

Kansas City Fed Survey: Activity Strength Continues, Expected Activity Highest Ever

The latest index came in at 20.0, up from last month's 12.0, which indicates continued improving activity. The future outlook increased to 32.0 from 29.0 last month - currently its highest ever in the series. Here is a snapshot of the complete Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey.