5 Charts That Show 2017 Could Be a Banner Year for Retailers
Thursday morning, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told CNBC that we could expect “significant” tax reform by August, including tax cuts for middle-income Americans and corporations. Like clockwork, the major stock indices rallied to all-time highs in intraday trading.
ECRI Weekly Leading Index: "How Reliable Are GDP Consensus Forecasts?"
Today's release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 144.6, up just 0.1 from the previous week. It is currently just below its all-time high. Year-over-year the four-week moving average of the indicator is now at 12.32%, up from 12.17% the previous week, and at an interim high. The WLI Growth indicator is now at 10.5, down slightly from the previous week.
Kansas City Fed Survey: February Activity Highest Since 2011
The latest index came in at 14.0, up from last month's 9.0, which indicates improving activity. The future outlook increased to 29.0 from 27.0 last month. Here is a snapshot of the complete Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey.
The Administration Now Faces the Hurdles of Reality
There has rarely been a new presidential administration in the history of the United States that has tried to get so much done in its first ten days as the current one.
We Are Growing Less Positive (But Not Negative) Toward Equities
Equity markets have increased since the U.S. elections for two principal reasons: optimism over a pro-growth legislative agenda from Donald Trump and improving U.S. and global economic and earnings growth.
A Most Wonderful Year For Small-Caps
2016 was a terrific year for small-cap stocks—and an even better year for small-cap value and cyclical sectors.
Southeastern Asset Management: “We welcome unpredictability”
Ross Glotzbach is head of research and a principal at Southeastern Asset Management, one of the most respected value managers. In this interview, he discusses his investment outlook in an era of political and economic uncertainty.
Gold Gets a Shot in the Arm from Inflation and China
Inflation just got another jolt, rising as much as 2.5 percent year-over-year in January, the highest such rate since March 2012. Led by higher gasoline, rent and health care costs, consumer prices have now advanced for the sixth straight month. In addition, January is the second straight month for rates to be above the Federal Reserve’s target of 2 percent.
Weekly Market Summary
US equities continue to make new all-time highs each week, supported by strong equity fund inflows and macro data that has exceeded expectations. Surprisingly, equities outside the US are actually outperforming the S&P. The current trend is very extended and there are four notable headwinds that may impact equities in the weeks ahead. There is, conversely, a favorable set up in the bond market.
Tax Reform: The Good, the Bad, and the Really Ugly—Part Three
Today we come to part 3 of my tax reform series. So far, we’ve introduced the challenge and begun to describe the main proposed GOP solution. Today we’ll look at the new and widely misunderstood “border adjustment” idea and talk about both its good and bad points
S&P 500 Snapshot: Yet Another Record Close
On Friday, the S&P opened lower than Thursdays' close and was fairly flat until late in the day with a rise a couple of hours before close. The index reached its intraday high at close and ended the day with a gain of 0.17%. Week over week, the index saw a gain of 1.51% ending Friday with another record close.
Big Winners in the Neglected Frontier Universe
Frontier markets were mixed in 2016, with most of the Middle East and Africa lagging the rest of the universe and a few markets surging ahead 30-40% on the year.
Russia: Stagnant Stability
A recent trip to Moscow on the 100th anniversary of the 1917 revolution revealed not a whiff of revolutionary change in the economy, but rather stagnant growth mixed with structural stability. We could simply call it “stagnant stability.”
Global Economic Perspective: February
For all that political events and speculation about policy direction have dominated news cycles over recent months, the US economy’s key fundamentals have changed remarkably little, in our view. The backdrop appears to us to be constructive, as a healthy level of consumer spending has been increasingly reinforced by a recovery in corporate earnings and investment.
An Emerging-Market Evolution
The way investors think about emerging markets has been evolving—along with the markets themselves. One thing we at Templeton Emerging Markets Group emphasize is that one can’t consider emerging markets as one asset class; the opportunities are very differentiated between regions, countries and markets, with different fundamentals shaping them.