Investing In EV Carmakers and Supply Chains? Utility Work Ahead
Future growth projections for electric vehicles vary dramatically, but all reflect real opportunities for fundamentals-focused investors surveying the links in supply and production chains.
The Risk of a New Economic Non-Order
The upcoming IMF and World Bank annual meetings offer a critical opportunity to start a serious discussion on how to arrest the lose-lose dynamics that have been gaining traction in the global economy. The longer it takes for the seeds of reform to be sown, the less likely they will be to take root.
The German Election and Markets
What might the German election mean for markets?
U.S. Debt Tops $20 Trillion - Stocks Soar To Record Highs
We touch on several bases in today’s letter that are not entirely related. We begin with the 800-pound gorilla in the room – the fact that the US national debt topped $20 trillion last week.
Are Diversifying Assets Up Next in the Return-Seeking Cycle?
After a sustained period of return leadership by U.S. stocks, a number of diversifying assets now appear poised for outperformance.
North Korea: An Update
North Korea has become increasingly belligerent, launching ballistic missiles, testing a hydrogen device and claiming to have miniaturized a warhead; if true, this means it is a nuclear power. Although Trump says “all options are on the table,” a full-scale war would be catastrophic and may be impossible to contain.
Time to Take a (Measured) Risk?
Astute investors know that buying when others are fearful can be a good strategy. Despite remarkably low market volatility, investors continue to avoid risk. This month, we examine previous periods of risk and investor behavior, when investors discarded normal valuation measures, threw caution to the wind, and suffered the consequences.
Random Gleanings at 38,000 Feet
Reflecting on the months of travel as we wing our way back to Tampa at 38,000 feet, one of the more interesting encounters in those travels was spending time with Steve Forbes (Forbes Magazine). Although Steve is a staunch Republican, he suggested that Republicans worship at the altar of the CBO (Congressional Budget Office).
Worried About Rising Rates? Here’s Why You Shouldn’t Be
Should tighter monetary policy on both sides of the Atlantic worry bond investors? We don’t think so. Bonds have historically delivered positive returns when interest rates rise—particularly when they rise gradually.
World Markets Update
All eight indexes on our world watch list have posted gains for 2017 through September 18. The top performer thus far is Hong Kong's Hang Seng with a gain of 28.0%, followed by India's BSE SENSEX at 21.77%. In third is our own S&P 500 with 11.84%.
Random Walk Part 1 – A Random Walk down a Dead-end Street
This is the first of a four-part empirical research study into the fallacy of the “random walk” view on investment reward and risk.
Interest Rate Outlook: Long-Term US Rates Could Rise on Global Growth and Stabilizing Inflation
Invesco Fixed Income shares its views on rates around the world.
On My Radar – Forward We Go
Last week, investors were lamenting the lack of inflation. This week, they’re fixated on its rise. On Thursday, data showed consumer prices climbed 0.4% in August from a month earlier and 1.9% from a year earlier, a sign that inflation is once again on the upswing after months of soft readings.
Are Cryptocurrencies the Best Investment Opportunity of the Next Decade?
This is part one of a comprehensive primer on cryptocurrencies and blockchains.
World Leaders are Taking Investors Down a Dangerous Economic Path
Stock market performance has not been driven by the improving health of the global economy. Just as negative interest rates are not a positive for the continued health of the economy, current stock market performance does not augur rosy future returns for stocks. In fact, the opposite is true.