With Rollback, Dodd-Frank Is Now Officially a Dud
You can be forgiven, for missing what I believe is the most significant development of the past few days. On Wednesday, the Senate, in a bipartisan vote, quietly approved plans to roll back key banking rules in 2010’s Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act (Dodd-Frank).
S&P 500 Snapshot: Down 1.24% from Last Week, Rising Trade Tensions
Rising trade tensions contributed to this week's market decline. The S&P 500 closed Friday above Thursday's close, but fell 1.24% from last week. The index is up 2.08% YTD and is 4.2% below its record close. Volume was high today, ending 38% above its 50 day moving average.
Further Thoughts On Trade Policy
We’ve written about the American steel tariffs in each of the last two weeks. But there remain some important points to make on the topic of trade.
ECRI Weekly Leading Index Update
This morning's release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 149.7, up 0.4 from the previous week. Year-over-year the four-week moving average of the indicator is now at 3.14%, down from 3.36% last week. The WLI Growth indicator is now at 5.6, down from the previous week.
Navigating the New Volatility Regime
Rick and Russ on the new volatility regime, why risk is being misapprehended, and how to navigate these new challenges.
Trump, Tariffs and Trade: Three Takeaways for Investors
We believe the trade actions with the most significant potential economic and market impact have yet to unfold.
The Many Uses of Gold
As our loyal readers know, at U.S. Global Investors we carefully monitor the price of gold. We pay close attention to the macro drivers moving the yellow metal, like government policy and cultural affinity spurring demand globally. We also monitor the micro drivers, like company management and quant factors that make one gold stock superior to the next.
Global Economic Perspective: March
We see the US economy as maintaining its current path of respectable but not overly robust growth. Underlying fundamentals and economic momentum remain constructive, while we do not foresee an acceleration in growth to a level that would swiftly create inflationary pressures.
Emerging Markets: Keep an Eye on Reform
Economic reforms remain critical for emerging economies' attempts to successfully transition from low-wage industrial economies to high-skilled, consumption-based economies.
The Real Reason for Trump’s Steel and Aluminum Tariffs
The Trump administration's proposed tariffs on steel and aluminum imports will target China, but not the way most observers believe. For the US, the most important bilateral trade issue has nothing to do with the Chinese authorities' failure to reduce excess steel capacity, as promised, and stop subsidizing exports.
Emperor Xi: Part II
Last week, we discussed China’s power structure and how the suspension of term limits changes recent precedents. This week, we continue this topic by analyzing China’s challenges while shifting from the world’s high growth/low cost producer to a slower growth, “normal” economy.
China & Japan Are Reducing US Dollar Holdings - Why?
We’ll touch on several bases today which should make for an interesting E-Letter. We start with the fact that China and Japan are reducing their holdings of US Treasury debt. As the two foreign countries holding the largest amount of our debt by far, should we be concerned? Maybe yes, maybe no.
Emerging Market ETFs Traded Reliably During Selloff. But What about their NAV Disconnects?
EM ETFs suffered deviations in their market prices relative to their net asset values, with their total returns materially underperforming the broad emerging market index.
Gundlach Disagrees with Mnuchin and Powell
On inflation and Fed policy, Jeffrey Gundlach disagreed with comments made by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. But Gundlach’s views were in line with the consensus on those key issues – inflation will not spike dramatically higher and the Fed will continue with its planned rate hikes.
Current Fixed Income Concerns
Matt Freund outlines his current fixed income concerns: high debt levels, inflation and non-U.S. developments including global central bank policy and the strength of international markets, and liquidity. To learn more visit: http://bit.ly/AskPM-FI