The Emerging Markets Channel

Stealth Bull Market?

On CNBC last Friday, we stated that we have been in a stealth bull market. Indeed, after anticipating the stock market’s bottom in early February, the stealth bull market emerged.

Yuan Decline: Concerning But Not Systemic

Amid fears of escalating trade tensions, the yuan’s sharp depreciation against the dollar last month has spooked some investors who see similarities with China’s currency devaluation in 2015, an episode that prompted capital outflows and roiled markets worldwide. 

Is China Tanking?

Chinese equities have been soft and President Trump is threatening a trade war, but earnings and margins remain firm and China is still the world’s best consumer story.

Malaysia: Where Voters Rule

In the mold of Winston Churchill in 1951, a spirited Tun Dr. Mahathir Mohamad has fought and won re-election as prime minister after years out of office. Dr. Mahathir returns to the leadership position he held for 22 years up to 2003 – a period that saw Malaysia rise into the ranks of middle income countries. 

Weekly Gasoline Price Update: WTIC Drops Almost 8%

It's time again for our weekly gasoline update based on data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The price of Regular was up a penny and Premium was down less than a cent, from last week. According to GasBuddy.com, Hawaii has the highest average price for Regular at $3.72 and San Francisco, CA is the most expensive city, averaging $3.79. Mississippi has the cheapest at $2.54. The WTIC end of day spot price closed at 68.06, a 7.8% decrease from this time last week.

World Markets Update

Three of eight indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through Monday, July 16, 2018. The top performer this year is India's BSE SENSEX with a gain of 7.43%. In second is our own S&P 500 with a gain of 4.67%. In third is France's CAC 40 with a gain of 1.82%. Coming in last is Shanghai's SSE with a loss of 14.91%.

 

Five Risks That Could Affect Fixed Income Markets

Invesco Fixed Income is positive on fundamentals for the rest of this year. Global growth is solid and inflation is tame. As central banks have pivoted away from stimulus, tighter financial conditions have hurt risky assets. But major central bank policies are still generally easy — we expect the Federal Reserve to tighten gradually, and the runway for other central banks to normalize policy is still long.

What You Get if you Cross Buffett, Branson and Jobs

Jobs, Branson, Buffett – it is rare for somebody to embody strengths of each of these business giants. Masayoshi Son, the Korean-Japanese, University of California, Berkeley-educated founder of one of Japan’s most successful companies, SoftBank Group, is a candidate.

Powell’s Testimony

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver his semi-annual monetary policy testimony to Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday, but he’s not expected to cover any new ground.

When Push Comes to Shove

A review of last month’s market-moving events across countries and asset classes.

Why the Dollar Was Key to the 1st Half

As Russ explains the key to asset returns in the first half of 2018 was the dollar, not interest rates.

Agriculture Around the World

The Northern Trust economics team explores agriculture markets globally and in the United States.

Oil Takes Center Stage: Commodities Halftime Report 2018

Of the 14 major commodities we track at U.S. Global Investors, oil was the standout performer, gaining roughly 23 percent, followed by nickel (up 16.76 percent) and wheat (16.51 percent).

S&P 500 Snapshot: Up 1.5% WoW, 3.9% YTD

The S&P 500 started lower on Monday and had four days of gains, ending the week up 1.5% from last week. The index is up 3.91% YTD (based on Jan. 1) and is 2.94% below its record close.

Advisors Capitulate in the Face of Rising Markets

The potential escalation of tariffs combined with rising rates present a formidable risk for advisors and their investors in the second half of 2018. Avoid betting for or against a trade deal and build in risk managed strategies that position your investors for either outcome.