The Emerging Markets Channel

Imagining the Stock Market in Ten Years

What will the next ten years look like in the U.S. stock market? As we often do, we refer you to one of our favorite songs, “I Can Only Imagine,” and a book by George Friedman, The Next 100 Years. We believe the best performing securities of the next ten years will be very different from the securities and the sectors which currently capture the “popular imagination” of investors.

Global Economic Perspective: May

In this month's Global Economic Perspective, our Fixed Income Group opines on rising energy prices, US Treasury yields, emerging-market currency pressures and global economic growth.

YCG Q1 2018 Quarterly Review

In-depth write up of Moody's (MCO) highlighting how it fits into YCG's investment framework which focuses on identifying "great business" and "market-timing" mispricings.

Weekly Gasoline Price Update: WTIC Highest Since Late 2014

It's time again for our weekly gasoline update based on data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The price of Regular and Premium were up five and four cents, respectively, from last week. According to GasBuddy.com, California has the highest average price for Regular at $3.69 and San Francisco, CA is the most expensive city, averaging $3.81. Louisiana has the cheapest at $2.60. The WTIC end of day spot price closed at 72.35, a 2.0% increase from this time last week and its highest since late 2014.

World Markets Update

Six of eight indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through Monday, May 21, 2018. The top performer this year is France's CAC 40 with a gain of 6.12%. In second is Hong Kong's Hang Seng with a gain of 4.40%. In third is India's BSE SENSEX with a gain of 2.38%. Coming in last is Shanghai's SSE with a loss of 2.82%.

 

A Strategic Income Fund that is Thriving in a Challenging Bond Market

Carl Kaufman is the co-president, co-chief executive officer and managing director, fixed income at Osterweis Capital Management. He is the lead portfolio manager for the Strategic Income Fund. That fund has had an annualized return of 6.18% since its inception on 8/30/02. Its performance exceeded the AGG by 278 basis points. I interviewed Carl last week.

Field Notes: Hyderabad

The verdict remains out as to whether recent initiatives in India, such as the note ban and the Goods and Services Tax, will constitute significant steps forward in the country’s quest to become a modern and globally competitive industrial economy.

Weighing the Week Ahead: Will Higher Interest Rates Lead to Lower Stock Prices?

The economic calendar is light, and the market week will be shortened. There is no holiday this week, but expect many participants to take off early for a long weekend. If interest remain above 3% on the ten-year note, that will be the focus.

Fund Managers' Current Asset Allocation

In the past 9 months, US equities have outperformed Europe by 6% and the rest the world by 5%. Despite this, fund managers remain underweight the US. US equities should continue to outperform their global peers on a relative basis.

Just One Thing

We have always liked the movie “City Slickers” and particularly one scene. It’s the scene where Curly (Jack Palance) turns to Mitch Robbins (Billy Crystal) and says, “Do you know the secret of life?” The punchline is, “It’s just one thing” (one thing). For investors we agree, all you need to know is just one thing.

Train Crash Preview

Today we will summarize something I’ve been thinking about for a long time. Exactly how will we get from the credit crisis, which I think is coming in the next 12–18 months, to what I call the Great Reset, when the global debt will be “rationalized” via some form of nonpayment. Whatever you want to call it, I think a worldwide debt default is likely in the next 10–12 years.

Anticipating the Next Recession

In this issue, the Economics team looks at current recession risks in the U.S. and eurozone, and explores how rising oil prices will affect U.S. consumers.

Blockchain Will Completely Revolutionize How We Mine Gold and Precious Metals

This week I had the pleasure to attend Consensus 2018 in New York, the premiere gathering for the who’s who in blockchain, bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. Attendance doubled from last year to an estimated 8,500 people, all of them packed in a Hilton built for only 3,000. Ticket sales alone pulled in a whopping $17 million, while event booths—the largest of which belonged to Microsoft and IBM—generated untold millions more.

S&P 500 Snapshot: Down 0.5% from Last Week

The S&P 500 dropped to start the week and recovered slightly by Friday. The index saw a loss of 0.54% from last Friday and 0.26% loss from yesterday. The index is up 0.64% YTD and is 5.57% below its record close.

Country Updates

Market updates from across the region.