Let’s start today with a look back at the major world market indexes’ performance since October 2007 (the last bull market peak) and also the performance since March 2009 panic low. A tale of two different stories. The first was expensive, leveraged and featured a Fed raising rates. The second was relatively inexpensive and the beginning of unprecedented central bank liquidity.
Back to Brazil
I visited Brazil in the spring of this year, but wanted to go back and explore more areas of the country. Brazil has faced some hard times but appears to be bouncing back from a prolonged recession, so I was interested to gauge the mood of the people and businesses there.
This Week: Themes of 2017
Times have changed, in more ways than one. This December has been especially hectic, with the transition in Brexit negotiations, U.S. tax reform debate and Bitcoin setting new highs every few minutes.
5 Big Questions for 2018
Below are five questions to help guide your thinking when making investment decisions in the new year.
S&P 500 Snapshot: Post-Fed Hike and FCC Ruling, Tax Bill Looms
This week was a busy one for headlines, between the FCC's decision to repeal net neutrality rules, the Fed's expected rate hike, and the tax bill on the verge of passing. The S&P 500 jumped upon opening Friday, and climbed throughout the day, closing 0.9% above Thursday. The preliminary volume tally shows a whopping 66% above the 50-day moving-average. Year-to-date, the index is up 19.52%.
How North Korea Evades Sanctions
If sanctions against a target regime can be thought of as antibiotics, then North Korea has largely become drug-resistant. Indeed, North Korea is exhibiting “superbug” traits, increasingly impervious to sanctions, according to John Park.
The Stage Is Set for More Volatility in 2018
Rick Rieder and Russ Brownback examine the more volatile cyclical dynamics we’re likely to encounter in 2018, even as the secular risk-asset bull market remains in place.
ECRI Weekly Leading Index: WLI Continues to Climb
Today's release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 147.5, up 0.3 from the previous week and another record high. Year-over-year the four-week moving average of the indicator is now at 3.41%, down from 3.87% last week. The WLI Growth indicator is now at 3.5, up from the previous week.
Self-Driving Vehicles: The Race to Get Them on the Road
Technological advancements over the past two decades have moved the idea of self-driving cars from the realm of science fiction to fact. Recently, Franklin Templeton Investments assembled a panel of professionals to discuss the competition between traditional vehicle manufacturers and technology companies in the race to develop a truly autonomous car.
We expect the global expansion to continue in 2018. Yet investors should prepare for both the consequences of policy shifts and the opportunities presented in more difficult market conditions.
Special Report on the Energy Industry
We expect momentum in the energy sector and resource-related currencies to continue into 2018. In this mid-quarter update to investors, we analyze what this means for the market.
Investment Wisdom or Just Grumpy Old Men?
In one of our meetings, Justin asked a question of me. He said, “Why is it that the only investment managers telling people to be careful are old timers like you? Jeremy Grantham of GMO, whose seven year forecast is negative in all asset classes other than emerging markets. Howard Marks, whose most recent memo “There They Go Again…Again” strongly suggests people be cautious in their investing today.
GMO Quarterly Letter
In a new quarterly letter to GMO's institutional clients, head of asset allocation Ben Inker discusses why investors should be thinking about the risks of surging inflation, even if such a surge may not be inevitable or even probable. Chief investment strategist Jeremy Grantham considers the current market environment and how to most rationally take risk with the ultimate stakes on the line.
NewsLetter – December 2017
Harold Evensky's most recent Newsletter.
Heading into 2018, International Assets Are Positioned for Outperformance
Heading into 2018, we remain positive on global equities and believe the outperformance of international risk assets can continue. In the years following the Global Financial Crisis, uneven global growth created headwinds for risk assets outside the US. Typically, one or two regions would show improvement, while other regions decelerated.