The Economic Insights Channel

US Equity Correction? Prepare, Don’t Panic

Political noise emanating from Washington has prompted fresh concerns that a US equity market correction may be looming. But have no fear: the market often takes a leg down, only to bounce back quickly.

Brazil’s Political Bumps

Just when Brazil’s economy seemed to be turning a corner, a new political scandal has caused a strong market reaction, sending Brazil’s stock market into a tailspin. President Michel Temer, who came into office following the impeachment of former President Dilma Rouseff due to a corruption scandal, is now caught up in a corruption scandal of his own

Volatility Is Low—But Not As Low As You Think

Stock market volatility is unusually low these days. Does that mean investors are complacent? We don’t think so. In fact, some risk indicators suggest market participants may be less relaxed than they seem.

The Forecast for Interest Rates is Changing

Is it time to add convertible bonds?

April 2017 Market Commentary

“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times…” to borrow a phrase from Dickens’, Tale of Two Cities. As 2016 came to a close it seemed truly the best of times for many. Following the US election, there was renewed hope and optimism for growth initiatives, as well as public policies, which generated a sense of certainty and euphoria about the future.

For the UK, Is the Real Risk Above- or Below-Target Inflation?

In its recent quarterly inflation report, the Bank of England gave the market some fascinating insights into the challenges it will face in setting appropriate monetary policy over the coming years.

Finding Value Globally Across Asset Classes

Jae S. Yoon is the chief investment officer and a portfolio manager at New York Life Investment Management, where he oversees approximately $293 billion in assets. In this interview, he discusses valuations across global asset classes and where he sees the greatest opportunities.

No More Earnings on the Cheap?

Why companies may no longer be able to rely on reduced capital expenditures to boost profit margins.

Existing-Home Sales: April Headline Number Down 2.3% Month-over-Month

This morning's release of the April Existing-Home Sales declined from the previous month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.57 million units. The March count was downwardly revised from 5.71 million to 5.70 million. The consensus was for 5.65 million. The latest number represents a 2.3% decrease from the previous month and a 1.6% increase year-over-year.

Jack Bogle on the Limits of the Fiduciary Rule and the Future of the Advisory Industry

Speaking two weeks after his 88th birthday, Jack Bogle called the fiduciary rule “silly” and said that financial advisors’ fees are heading lower. Indeed, he said, advisors are destined to charge hourly or retainer fees, like lawyers and accountants.

FHFA House Price Index: The Rise Continues

The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has released its U.S. House Price Index (HPI) for the Q1 and the most recent month. U.S. house prices were up 0.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted nominal basis from the previous month. Year-over-year the index is up 6.3% (nonseasonally adjusted). On a quarterly basis, the index is up 6% year-over-year Q1 to Q1.

Reflections on Trade: Part IV

This is the final report of our four-part series on trade. This week, our discussion on trade continues with a look at the relationship between trade, employment and inflation. We also conclude the series with market ramifications.

April Real Median Household Income Shows Encouraging Growth

The Sentier Research median household income data for April, released this morning, came in at $59,361. The nominal median rose $688 month-over-month and is up $2,176 year-over-year. In percentages, the latest month is up 1.2% MoM and up 3.8% YoY. Adjusted for inflation, the latest month is up $590 MoM and $920 YoY. The real numbers equate to changes of 1.0% MoM and 1.6% YoY.


Expectations for U.S. growth continue to slow as distractions in Washington D.C. take away from the aggressive legislative agenda.

Jeremy Siegel versus Robert Shiller on Equity Valuations

Should you reduce allocations to U.S. equities given the conventional wisdom that prices are “rich” and “due for a correction”? Jeremy Siegel says no; investors should expect 5% real returns from stocks over the long term. But Robert Shiller thinks that number should be much lower.