Economic Insights

In the current macroeconomic landscape marked by higher-for-longer interest rates, investors looking to optimize their short-term capital allocations may want to consider collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) as a higher-yielding potential alternative to traditional cash proxies like money market funds.

Leverage, ratings arbitrage, liquidity transformation, and a growing willingness to embrace complexity and illiquidity are becoming more visible across parts of the financial system.

The US economy grew 2.0% in 2025 and it looks like it is growing another 2.0% this year. Real GDP grew at a 2.1% annual rate in the first quarter and, as we set out below, it looks like it grew at a 2.0% rate in the second quarter.

The market encountered its stiffest test in months last week as rising oil prices, higher bond yields, and renewed scrutiny of AI capital spending combined to pressure many of the year’s biggest winners. Easing tensions over the weekend have buoyed stocks. If the Strait of Hormuz was opened, I believe the market would be 5% to 10% higher.

With the US-Iran conflict nearing the five-month mark, equity markets have mostly shrugged off the latest escalation. On one hand, that’s understandable – a healthy economy and record corporate profits continue to support the market’s fundamentals. But a note of caution is warranted.

Without the support of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, it’s been a lethargic year in terms of performance by municipal bonds and the related ETFs, but that doesn’t mean advisors and fixed income investors should ignore this bond segment.

Chris Galipeau discusses high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.

On a recent episode of the Money Metals Podcast, host Mike Maharrey welcomed veteran market strategist Gregory T. Weldon, publisher of the Global Macro Strategy Report, for a wide-ranging discussion on precious metals, inflation, Federal Reserve policy, artificial intelligence, and global macroeconomic trends.

For many years, globalization felt like a one-way street. Supply chains stretched effortlessly across continents. Companies built “just-in-time” systems that assumed goods, data, and capital would flow smoothly around the world. Investors could buy a global index fund and feel reasonably confident that they were capturing the benefits of ever-closer integration.

Discover Aberdeen’s closed-end funds (CEFs) for high yields, illiquid assets, long-term investments, and resilient income for 2026.

If you own treasuries, you need to make two separate decisions rather than one blended bet. The liquidity sleeve holds the bill exposure and does the work people mistakenly ask the long end to do. The duration sleeve stays deliberately small, sized as recession insurance rather than as a conviction call on falling inflation.

US earnings are set to grow briskly in 2026, but much of the expected gains are being driven by expanding profit margins that may be hard to sustain. Equity investors should ask whether portfolios are exposed to businesses with durable demand and profitable reinvestment—or merely a favorable margin cycle.

The structural backdrop for U.S. inflation increasingly suggests that the long run equilibrium range is migrating from roughly 1.5–3.5% toward 3.5–4.5%, with a significant risk of episodes of inflation above 5%. An important core reason is the steady erosion of the disinflationary architecture that dominated the 1990–2020 period, even as various cyclical pressures also play a role.

On July 28, Morgan Stanley launched two new spot crypto ETFs on NYSE Arca. The Morgan Stanley Ethereum Trust (MSSE) and the Morgan Stanley Solana Trust (MSOL) provide spot price exposure to underlying ethereum (ETH) and solana (SOL), alongside additional distributions from staking yields.

Brent crude crossed above $100 a barrel this week, all due to a 20-mile-wide stretch of water some 6,500 miles away from the U.S. Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz—the Persian Gulf bottleneck that carried roughly a fifth of the world’s seaborne oil before the fighting started—has fallen to virtually zero.

As markets place a greater premium on shareholder-friendly capital allocation, companies that consistently combine buybacks with dividends may be better positioned to outperform.

June may have proven to be a difficult month for silver investors, but it’s likely far too soon to give up on the precious metal. To better understand this, it’s important to contextualize why silver’s price is struggling and why the metal’s long-term opportunities are still there.

The equity bull market is expected to continue through the second half of 2026, supported by resilient U.S. growth, AI investment and solid earnings.

In this midyear global outlook summary, the authors revisit Vanguard’s economic and market outlooks and assess how our views have evolved since the start of the year.

The ETF market saw a push in capital away from the concentrated U.S. tech sector to defensive broad market exposure, short duration bonds, and commodities. The shift in flows is amplified by the semiconductor market pullback, interest rate uncertainty, and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Emerging markets are quietly having their best decade in a generation, and most global investors still don’t own enough. The case for investing in emerging markets today is not the tired characterisation of a high growth, low valuation opportunity.

Healthcare systems across the country are facing a difficult reality. Costs are rising faster than revenues, balance sheets are under pressure, the pacing of private market allocations are harder to manage, and liquidity has become an important topic for many organizations.

It may seem premature to focus on the November US midterm elections. Polls will shift, economic data will evolve and unexpected events will reshape the political landscape in the months ahead.

Today we’ll consider the interaction between long-term interest rates, the Fed’s limited ability to influence them, inflation and the housing market. And because home prices are the biggest concern for many households, we’ll start with a look at the latest changes there. And then look at the Federal Reserve’s likely reaction.

Election season often follows a familiar script. Investors debate congressional control, speculate on policy outcomes and search for clues about what markets might do next.

In June, market news continued to be dominated by the Middle East conflict as frequent flare-ups in hostilities gave way to repeated ceasefire efforts and the signing of a high-level memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran.

Google searches for "can I afford a home" are at their highest level in nearly two decades. While a Google search on its own isn't proof of anything, millions of queries might be a proxy for the national vibe.

Research Affiliates and PIMCO leadership analyze key 2026 midyear market shifts, warning of elevated U.S. and AI equity valuations.

Equity markets have shown resilience amid persistent headwinds, supported by index evolution and earnings strength

Russ Koesterich explains gold’s recent fall and lays out his argument for why investors should continue to hold a modest position in their portfolios.

It's difficult to call any stretch a calm, quiet summer week, but this one would seemingly fit the bill. Earnings from Alphabet (GOOGL), Tesla (TSLA), and IBM (IBM) are the standouts, along with a slew of cyclicals reporting Q2 results.​

Electricity demand is surging all over the world. To meet this demand, vast investments in power generation need to be made, and grids need to be overhauled and expanded. Ramping up electricity generation and delivery is extremely expensive, and electricity prices have spiked up throughout much of the developed world.

Resilient earnings, improving industrial activity and the AI investment cycle should continue to support equities, according to Putnam Equity’s Shep Perkins. But the same forces driving the market higher are also making companies harder to value.

The summer has once again brought a miasma of wildfire smoke across wide stretches of the nation, leading to hazy views and slower activity. The clouds in our outlook are not merely atmospheric. A failed ceasefire and renewed conflict in the Middle East have created new reasons to worry about economic performance.

From severe wildfires in northern Ontario to record heat across Europe, extreme weather is back in the headlines. Such events are becoming more frequent and intense, and the risks associated with them are testing the limits of insurability. With our research partners at Columbia Climate School, we examine how strains on the insurance system can transmit climate-related risks through the capital markets.

Inflation remains above target, especially the Federal Reserve’s preferred core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation measure, as choppy data have challenged the view that disinflation will proceed smoothly.

Kevin Warsh’s early overhaul of Federal Reserve communication and policymaking suggests investors should prepare for a higher-for-longer rate environment with greater uncertainty around policy signals.

Investors continue to benefit from two powerful tailwinds: strong stock-market performance and bond yields that remain attractive compared with much of the post-financial-crisis period. Higher yields have improved the income generated by fixed income portfolios and given investors more flexibility to balance income, liquidity, and interest rate risk.

Making his first appearance on Capitol Hill since becoming Fed Chair in May, Kevin Warsh delivered the chair's semi-annual testimony on monetary policy and the state of the economy to the U.S. House Committee on Financial Services on July 14 and the Senate Banking Committee on July 15.

AI continues to evolve. Early offerings in the 2010s around machine learning, natural language processing, and predictive analytics helped ignite the Big Data era and allow for the ingestion and processing of both structured and unstructured data at previously unimaginable speeds and volumes.

In the Warsh Fed's new era of two-way risk, bonds offer something rare: potential downside risk mitigation that investors get paid to hold.

Last week’s dominant story was the sharp unwinding of the momentum trade that has carried the market for months. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) declined 10 per cent over the week and is down 21 per cent from June’s peak. Bear markets are defined as drawdowns of 20 per cent or more.

The prime culprit was renewed questioning of the artificial intelligence (AI) buildout given the increasing amount of capital investment needed to bring it to life and the corresponding costs for those who use the technology weighed against its potential productivity benefits.

Lock, stock and barrel, a British phrase, originally referred to the three essential components of a firearm. Over time, it evolved into shorthand for the whole package. When tensions flare in the Middle East, the global economy often feels the consequences lock, stock and barrel.

As developed economies grapple with higher debt burdens and elevated interest rates, the UK's gilt market offers important lessons for investors evaluating sovereign bonds around the world.