The Commodities Channel

Venerated Voices™ Q2 2018 Rankings

Advisor Perspectives has announced its Venerated Voices awards for commentaries published in Q2 2018.

Powell’s Testimony

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver his semi-annual monetary policy testimony to Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday, but he’s not expected to cover any new ground.

When Push Comes to Shove

A review of last month’s market-moving events across countries and asset classes.

Why the Dollar Was Key to the 1st Half

As Russ explains the key to asset returns in the first half of 2018 was the dollar, not interest rates.

Agriculture Around the World

The Northern Trust economics team explores agriculture markets globally and in the United States.

Oil Takes Center Stage: Commodities Halftime Report 2018

Of the 14 major commodities we track at U.S. Global Investors, oil was the standout performer, gaining roughly 23 percent, followed by nickel (up 16.76 percent) and wheat (16.51 percent).

S&P 500 Snapshot: Up 1.5% WoW, 3.9% YTD

The S&P 500 started lower on Monday and had four days of gains, ending the week up 1.5% from last week. The index is up 3.91% YTD (based on Jan. 1) and is 2.94% below its record close.

ECRI Weekly Leading Index Update

This morning's release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 148.5, up 1.1 from the previous week. Year-over-year the four-week moving average of the indicator is now at 3.41%, down from 3.57% last week. The WLI Growth indicator is now at 1.5, also down from the previous week.

Tariffs and the End of Stimulus

The second quarter was marked with market volatility from geopolitical tensions, the president’s tweets, and “America first” rhetoric.

Monthly Market Risk Update: July 2018

Market risks come in three flavors: recession risk, economic shock risk, and risks within the market itself. So, what do these risks look like for July? Let’s take a closer look at the numbers.

Q3 Market Outlook: What’s in Store for Markets in the Second Half?

We are coming to the mid-year point for 2018, and the past six months have felt like six years. Markets have experienced a significant uptick in volatility, yet equity investors may not have much to show for all their troubles.

Project Independence: Possible this Year if US Petroleum Production Continues to Ramp

The US shale boom has led to a surge in the production of crude oil, and much of this production has been exported in recent years. In the chart below, I plot the gross exports of crude oil from the US. Beginning with almost nothing several years ago (in part because crude exports were banned until December 2015), US daily crude exports have eclipsed two million barrels per day.

Midyear Outlook 2018: The Plot Thickens

Given that we are in the later stages of this economic cycle, with factors such as increased trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainty at play, we do expect greater volatility may be ahead. But it’s important to remember that experiencing these ups and downs is a normal aspect of our market environment.

Consumer Price Index: June Headline at 2.87%

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the June Consumer Price Index data this morning. The year-over-year non-seasonally adjusted Headline CPI came in at 2.87%, up from 2.80% the previous month. Year-over-year Core CPI (ex Food and Energy) came in at 2.26%, up from the previous month's 2.24% and above the Fed's 2% PCE target.

Global Dominance via Stocks, Not War

In the 1960’s, the slogan “Make Love, Not War” became a rally cry for anti-war protestors, but also typified their free love expression. They used the slogan to explain the harshness of the situation in Vietnam and to be countercultural to the capitalist and traditional way of life they saw in American society.