The Commodities Channel

The Case for Owning Gold

Thomas Kertsos is a portfolio manager and senior research analyst at First Eagle Investment Management. He is the manager of the First Eagle Gold Fund (SGGSX), which, as of June 30, has returned 5.37% since its inception, on 8/31/93. That is 645 basis points better than its benchmark, the FTSE Gold Mines Index (-1.08%).

There They Go Again...Again

I’m in the process of writing another book, going into great depth regarding one of the most important things discussed in my book The Most Important Thing: cycles, their causes, and what to do about them. It will be out next year, but this memo will give you a preview regarding one of the most important cyclical phenomena.

Some Speed Bumps Slowing the Bull

I continue to believe that the two most important issues receiving inadequate investor attention are productivity and the role of central bank liquidity in the performance of financial markets. Productivity is critical to both earnings improvement and a rising standard of living.

China and Emerging Asia: A New Dawn for the Capital Markets

Asia’s integration into world financial markets may be accelerating.

Calibrating the Energy Sector’s Potential Outperformance

It’s news to no one that energy has been the worst performing sector year to date with plenty of hatred of the sector to go around. Yet, as we write the price of WTI crude oil is up about 2% on news of capex cuts and OPEC’s apparent moves to reign in production and exports.

July 2017 Market Commentary

It is stinking hot and steamy on the East Coast these days, as the proverbial “dog days of summer” set in. Historically, this was a time of year when things slowed down, people went on vacation, and it was generally too hot to move fast, but not this year.

Dynamic Asset Allocation for Practitioners Part 1: Universe Selection

In 2012 we published a whitepaper entitled “Adaptive Asset Allocation: A Primer” in which we built upon the simple, robust momentum framework proposed by Mebane Faber in his 2009 study “Relative Strength Strategies for Investing.”

Bronfman Rothschild 2017 Q2 Review

Supply and demand seems to have been placed on the backburner in today’s world of prognosticating inflation, employment, and GDP. The first point is the supply of publicly traded stock in the US. The second point is the supply of money.

Home Prices Rose 5.6% Year-over-Year NSA in May

With today's release of the May S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, we learned that seasonally adjusted home prices for the benchmark 20-city index were up 0.1% month over month. The seasonally adjusted national index year-over-year change has hovered between 4.2% and 5.8% for the last twenty-seven months. Today's S&P/Case-Shiller National Home Price Index (nominal) reached another new high.

Fund Manager Allocations

Global equities have risen 7% in the past 3 months and 16% in the past year, yet fund managers continue to hold significant amounts of cash, suggesting lingering doubts and fears.

Weekly Gasoline Price Update: Regular and Premium Up Three Cents

It's time again for our weekly gasoline update based on data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The price of Regular and Premium are up three cents each from last week. According to GasBuddy.com, Hawaii has the highest average price for Regular at $3.01 and San Francisco, CA is the most expensive city, averaging $3.04. South Carolina has the cheapest at $1.97. The WTIC end of day spot price closed at 46.34, a 0.7% increase from this time last week.

Breaking Down the Presumed Correlation Between Commodities and Emerging Markets

The divergence this year in the performance of the emerging markets stock index and commodities prices reflects improved earnings quality and valuations of developing country stocks, not to mention big changes at the top of the index.

How Conservative Should Investors Be Given Economic and Market Conditions?

We have created an adaptive regime-based investment framework that generates multi-asset and equity-sector-rotation model portfolios. The investment objective of these model portfolios is to combine downside protection with upside participation. Many firms say they do this – but our process integrates macroeconomic and financial cycle risk.

“Mother of All Bubbles” Keeps Gold in Focus

Today I want to discuss reports that global debt levels are at all-time highs, and what this means for your investment decisions going forward.

Treasury Snapshot: 10-Year Yield Down to 2.24%

Let's take a closer look at recent activity in US Treasuries. The yield on the 10-year note ended the day at 2.24% and the 30-year bond closed at 2.81%. The 2-10 yield spread is now at 0.88%.