Today's release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 143.3, up 1.5 from the previous week. Year-over-year the four-week moving average of the indicator is now at 3.08%, down from 3.65% last week and its tenth consecutive week of declines. The WLI Growth indicator is now at 0.3, also down from the previous week, its lowest since March of 2016.

A review of last month’s market-moving events across countries and asset classes.

Countless articles have been written in the past 10 years predicting (or warning) of China’s imminent financial demise, with the number of articles accelerating in recent years amid China’s debt build-up in the post Global Financial Crisis period. Investing on the basis of a “China collapse” view of the world would likely have resulted in more risk-averse portfolios in the emerging debt space and, hence, lower returns in recent years.

Many investors no longer view the US as the global safe haven to turn to during bouts of volatility. We argue that US and global fundamentals remain strong, however, many global investors seem to be losing religion.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the August Consumer Price Index data this morning. The year-over-year non-seasonally adjusted Headline CPI came in at 1.94%, up from 1.73% the previous month. Year-over-year Core CPI (ex Food and Energy) came in at 1.68%, down fractionally from the previous month's 1.69%.

Let's have a look at a long-term perspective on Treasury yields. The chart here shows the 10-Year Constant Maturity yield since 1962 along with the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) and inflation. The range has been astonishing. The stagflation that set in after the 1973 Oil Embargo was finally ended after Paul Volcker raised the FFR to 20.06%.

Russ explores why both risky assets and traditional safe havens have performed well this year, and whether that can continue.

The latest issue of the NFIB Small Business Economic Trends came out this morning. The headline number for August came in at 105.3, up 0.1 from the previous month. The index is at the 97th percentile in this series. Today's number came in above the Investing.com forecast of 105.0.

What should long-duration common stock owners like us do with the news of the horrific flood in Texas, the Category 5 hurricane in the Caribbean, the heightened tensions created by North Korea’s Dictator, Kim Jong-un, and the 8.1 magnitude earthquake in Southern Mexico? What is wise behavior in a more volatile stock market environment created by outside events?

There’s an ongoing narrative about the energy industry that says exploration and production (E&P) companies are making money in unconventional shale plays, even with oil selling for only $50 a barrel. This is touted as a positive trend. But a deeper dive into energy company fundamentals suggests a vastly different story — one that prioritizes production volume over economic value.

Knowledge Leaders Strategy mid-quarter update.

I’m writing to you from Chicago where I am attending the Morningstar ETF Conference. Vanguard’s global chief economist, Joe Davis, kicked off the event Wednesday evening advising investors to expect lower returns and rocky markets for the next two to three years.

The main contributors to the illusion of permanent prosperity have been decidedly cyclical factors. Investors presently appear to be taking past investment returns and economic growth at face value, without considering their underlying drivers at all. My impression is that while the U.S. may very well encounter credit strains or other economic dislocations in the coming years...

Momentum, trend-following, managed futures - are terms that can seem intimidating and opaque for many investors. But, while these types of investment strategies may be less familiar than traditional strategies, they can be quite intuitive and offer attractive diversification and return potential that is worth getting to know.

“There They Go Again . . . Again” of July 26 has generated the most response in the 28 years I’ve been writing memos, with comments coming from Oaktree clients, other readers, the print media and TV. I also understand my comments regarding digital currencies have been the subject of extensive – and critical – comments on social media, but my primitiveness in this regard has kept me from seeing them. The responses and the time that has elapsed have given me the opportunity to listen, learn and think. Thus I’ve decided to share some of those reflections here.

China put a halt to new ICOs and crypto transactions. In response, ethereum tumbled as much as 15.8 percent on Monday, or $55 a unit. Bitcoin lost $394 a unit.

Let's take a closer look at recent activity in US Treasuries. The yield on the 10-year note ended the day at 2.06% and the 30-year bond closed at 2.67%, some of the lowest levels since November of 2016. The 2-10 yield spread is now at 0.79%.

Growth stocks have been outperforming their value counterparts and investors can look at Amazon as an example for why this happened. Meanwhile, new research on a smart-beta-growth strategy looks at the theoretical foundations surrounding traditional growth indices.

The best call financial writer Geoffrey Caveney ever made was in December 2015. Gold hit a multiyear low of $1,050 an ounce, and he was convinced that the metal had found a bottom. It was time to make a trade, he thought, not just in bullion but precious metal miners, specifically the juniors and some micro-cap names.

Never before in the US have we experienced a natural disaster of the magnitude of Harvey. The damage is of such a degree that we find it nearly impossible to comprehend. Yet Harvey does not stand alone. Climate events that preceded it give us much-needed insight into how municipalities recover, and whether disasters precipitate credit defaults.

The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, also known as the FT-900, is published monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis with data going back to 1992. The monthly reports include revisions that go back several months. This report details U.S. exports and imports of goods and services.

This is the fourth in a series of articles where I will cover popular and/or high profile stocks. The primary objective of this series will be to put a spotlight on the importance of forecasting future growth prior to making an investment decision.

The macro data from the past month continues to mostly point to positive growth. On balance, the evidence suggests the imminent onset of a recession is unlikely.

The car is loaded with clean clothes and dog food. I’m heading out mid-morning to help load a support truck headed for Houston. Thankfully, my kid’s school has organized the donation drive. It has been heartwarming to watch the countless random acts of kindness in the wake of the current challenges. Much more will be needed in the days ahead.

Rarely have equity bulls and bears disagreed more than they do at present. We look at both the bull case and the bear case, and then we introduce a longer-term structural angle, which is largely ignored by both bulls and bears. This third side of the coin is based on the fact that inflation is structurally low, and that central banks may be committing a serious policy error by targeting 2% inflation, when it is almost impossible to drive inflation to those levels. Enjoy the read!

Below are some key data points and estimates that help contextualize the severity of Harvey and its aftermath.

This commentary has been updated to include today's release of Nonfarm Employment. August's 156K increase in total nonfarm payrolls was accompanied by a combined 41K downward revision for June and July. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4%. The Investing.com consensus was for 180K new jobs and the unemployment rate to remain at 4.3%.