Election Day has markets watching how divided Washington will be over the coming two years. Jeff Schulze shares insights for investors based on different potential outcomes.
The broad markets experienced volatility in the 3rd quarter with concerns over the impact of energy prices on inflation as well as CapEx spending by hyperscaler companies in the AI space driving technology stocks. The price of WTI Crude oil rallied sharply during the quarter by nearly 30%.
Once prone to external shocks, Latin America has weathered this year’s geopolitical upheavals largely unscathed.
If working allows someone to earn money, build relationships, develop skills, and experience greater independence, we should not assume the answer is to refrain from doing so simply because a benefit might change. We should first understand what might change and then help that individual pursue as much opportunity and independence as possible.
Technology took us out of our homes. It gave us a boss, office politics and an alarm clock — and it was awful. We got used to it; we made it work. Now technology might take those jobs away. But perhaps it will also restore the autonomy and flexibility that once defined work.
Last week, the AI trade began to crack further with Alphabet’s release, missing on both the top and bottom lines. Mirroring Meta’s print from the prior week, massive AI capex turned free cash flow negative, alarming investors.
In 2016, McKinsey warned that the “golden era” for investors had ended. Falling rates, fatter margins, and a rising multiple had done their work in creating above-average returns. Younger savers, the report said, would have to work seven more years or save nearly twice as much.
Innovation takes time—very often years—and can be expensive. For example, it wasn’t so long ago that Nvidia was considered to be just a gaming company. Today, it is one of the largest companies in the world with a dominant position in hardware and software tools powering the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution.
Social contracts are written for the population of their day, but while populations change, contracts rarely do. France is now the clearest case study of that collision.
Medicare's annual enrollment period gives advisors an opportunity to revisit healthcare coverage with clients. While advisors needn't become Medicare experts, they can help identify issues that warrant a closer look or consultation with a qualified Medicare professional.
The prolonged impact of raising the Fed Funds rate, coupled with the recent surge in long-term bond yields, is exactly the kind of over-restrictive policy mistake the bond market may be worried about, helping explain the recent decline in long-term yields.
Instead of making defensive, fear-driven claiming choices, financial planners are urged to stress-test retirement plans against a baseline 78% benefit level to ensure essential expenses remain covered.
Investors who own bonds are seeing losses in their accounts. Many are not happy, and many just want out. The losses over the past five years are significant. After the biggest decline in the history of the bond market in 2022, bonds stabilized until this year, when the decline resumed. Here’s why I tell clients that they should be thrilled.
When Elon Musk pledged to give a share of SpaceX to each child in the US, the proclamation was met with a certain amount of skepticism. Regardless of Musk’s motivation or whether his promise comes to fruition, he has — inadvertently or not — hit on a worthwhile idea.
Rising U.S. Treasury yields have added fresh strain to the U.S. housing market. The average 30-year mortgage rate, which generally tracks the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield plus a mortgage spread, rose to 7.5% in October 2026, according to Mortgage Bankers Association data, worsening an affordability crunch that remains a top concern among U.S. households.
Starting December 6, 2026, Nasdaq and NYSE Arca will officially launch extended trading sessions, expanding U.S. stock trading to up to 23 hours a day, five days a week.
Large-cap stocks may be better built for 5% Treasury yields than their smaller rivals, according to State Street Investment Management’s quarterly outlook. The 10-year yield climbed 0.81 percentage points last quarter to 5.28%, a near 20-year high.
Infrastructure has long been valued for its defensive characteristics, income potential and ability to protect against inflation. Essential assets such as electricity networks, pipelines, railways, airports and toll roads typically benefit from high barriers to entry and predictable revenues.
Chuck Carnevale analyzes seven stocks using FAST Graphs, showing how earnings, cash flow, and valuation charts reveal the business behind the stock price—and why a popular stock is not always an attractive investment.
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.18% in September and was up 4.21% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was down 0.31% month-over-month and up 0.54% year-over-year.
The Fed held rates steady at its October meeting but kept the door open to further tightening, with two dissenting votes and hawkish rhetoric signaling that the pause is a skip, not a stop.
The new SPYM ETF mutual fund share class, SPYMX, may yet pick up some strong new flows with its appeal to institutional investors.
Equity investors are meting out some of the harshest punishments ever for companies that miss expectations, just as strategists sound the alarm that earnings growth has likely peaked.
Royce Investment Partners: Co-CIO Francis Gannon details why recent volatility looks like the typical pattern of a US small-cap leadership cycle.
After overshooting projections for years, AI capex is slowing down. The shift doesn’t spell the end of the AI trade but a move to a more mature, predictable cycle that favors higher-quality borrowers.
New charitable deduction rules may affect year-end giving strategies. Bill Cass examines the changes for 2026 and considerations for taxpayers looking to align charitable goals with tax planning.
Many long simmering tensions boiled over in France’s protests and riots. Rising borrowing costs for the government proved a crucial pressure point — a message from bondholders grown impatient with a lack of pension reform and the country’s enormous welfare state. Americans would do well to pay attention.
With the recent movements in both the stock and bond markets, there was some noteworthy news that got kind of lost. Indeed, the U.S. government posted a $1.99 trillion budget deficit for fiscal year (FY) 2026. While technically it is not a record amount of red-ink, it represented the largest non-COVID-related shortfall ever recorded in modern history.
Gold has traditionally been one of the most popular ways for investors to gain commodity exposure, but its recent weakness highlights the differences across various commodities. While precious metals have struggled, energy and certain agricultural commodities have seen stronger returns. Existing diversified strategies are also giving investors more ways to access commodities beyond traditional gold funds.
Income ETF strategies have exploded in popularity in recent years. Historically, investors have looked to bond coupons to add durability to their portfolios. The explosion of ETF popularity, launches, and adoption, however, has seen some intriguing options join the fray. The Goldman Sachs Municipal Income ETF (GMUB), which hits its three-year ETF milestone next year, represents just such a strategy.
Gallup estimates that 70% of a team’s overall success lies with the leader of the team. Here are five takeaways from this year’s class that might be helpful, whether you are firmly in a leadership role, leading without formal authority, or presently climbing the ladder at your firm.
Economic data that continued to show a strong U.S. economy, housing aside, took a back seat this week as investors once again focused on potential risks to future growth: rising energy prices, sticky inflation, and most importantly, questions about the sustainability of the artificial intelligence (AI) boom.
There was very little macroeconomic news last week, but there was certainly no shortage of action in the markets. We saw an extraordinarily sharp rotation out of growth and into value, with both the Russell Value Index and the S&P Value Index reaching all-time highs even as the Nasdaq suffered one of its largest recent selloffs. That is a dramatic divergence, but historically it is not unprecedented.
US midterm elections take place on Tuesday, November 3. Currently, the Republican party is in control of the House and the Senate. This vote will essentially be a referendum on the Republican party’s body of work. It’s likely the composition of either the House or the Senate will change.
Clients want to understand how the advisor thinks, what they value, and what guides them when hard decisions arise. Your clients want to hear a familiar voice, not another generic, institutional message that could have come from any firm in the country.
Microsoft Corp. will offer buyouts to about 60,000 workers, representing roughly a quarter of its total staff, as part of the company’s efforts to trim costs and retool its workforce for the artificial intelligence era.
Ken Griffin told a room full of investors recently that we are “almost certainly” in an AI bubble. He may well be correct in that assessment, and there are plenty of media narratives that support that view.
We estimate the US economy grew at a 3.3% annual rate in the third quarter. Solid. Robust even, considering that net immigration is near zero and possibly negative, while Baby Boomers continue to gradually drift into retirement.
Rick Polsinello, Christian Galipeau Discuss high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
We have been arguing that the reset higher in yields has restored the dual role of bonds in multi-asset portfolios: providing attractive income while once again offering the potential for meaningful risk mitigation. This month’s tech market turbulence has provided a clear example: As equities came under pressure, U.S. Treasury yields fell amid a flight to safety, allowing duration to behave like a diversifier again.
The bond market is flashing levels not seen in nearly two decades. The 10-year Treasury yield is hovering near 5%, while real yields — measured by Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS) — are at their highest since before the 2008 financial crisis.
Last year, U.S. charitable giving hit a record $617.20 billion, according to Giving USA. That’s the first time it’s ever topped $600 billion. Individuals gave $394.2 billion of that, foundations gave $117.15 billion, bequests added $62.19 billion and corporations contributed $43.67 billion.
Imagine someone looking into a crystal ball on October 1 and telling you what was about to happen: September CPI data would come in higher than expected, PPI would rise 1.3% (well above the 0.5% forecast), and crude oil would climb $10 in the next two weeks alone.
At its core, a carry trade is simply borrowing where money is relatively cheap (Japan) and investing where the expected return is higher (U.S.). This strategy captures the difference in interest rates, but it also exposes investors to changes in interest rates and foreign currency exchange rates.
A few months ago, Georgina Long received a message asking her to call a collaborator at Merck & Co. She feared the worst.
Wall Street strategists are warning that declines in shares of AI cloud-computing providers will spill into other corners of the tech trade, potentially dragging the US stock market down to its June lows.
This marks the first peak week of Q3 earnings season, with 1,885 companies expected to report and overall S&P 500 EPS growth holding at a robust 29.5%
The Fed is hiking to prove it can beat inflation. The danger is that it proves the point with the one economy that can’t afford to lose.
With several provisions of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) taking effect in 2026, year-end planning may present new opportunities and considerations for taxpayers. It’s important to assess personal finances before the end of the year to determine if action is needed.
With the U.S. midterm elections mere weeks away, it can be easy to get swept up in the headlines and questions about what different outcomes might mean for markets.
Kalshi Inc. is opening up a new frontier in its rivalry with traditional financial exchanges by pitching the world’s largest banks and hedge funds on a futures market tied to US inflation.
The Federal Reserve is engaged in a well-documented battle with high inflation. So, many advisors and fixed income investors are evaluating Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS) and related ETFs.
For many bond investors, 2026 has stirred up uncomfortable memories of 2022. Yields have climbed sharply as bond prices have come under pressure and the Federal Reserve has raised its policy interest rate target.
Markets look calm on the surface, but AI-driven shifts in capital allocation, earnings quality, and funding needs are reshaping risks and opportunities beneath the index level.
Higher bond yields may offer retirees more income potential, but a diversified approach that balances income, risk, and spending needs remains important.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the policy-setting group within the U.S. Federal Reserve, meets on 27–28 October to discuss the economic outlook and appropriate monetary policy. We expect the FOMC to hold the policy rate at 3.75%–4.0% while keeping a clear tightening bias.
Investors are beginning to turn cautious on biotechnology stocks as a rapid rise in Treasury yields dents the appeal for shares of companies that are often viewed as risky all-or-nothing bets on breakthrough medical treatments.
After years when yield was scarce and investors were pushed further out on the risk spectrum, income is investable again. High-quality bonds can once more provide meaningful cash flow, portfolio stability and a credible path to total return without requiring an aggressive call on interest rates or credit.
Last week saw a further deterioration in the inflation outlook, while the Federal Reserve (Fed) appears increasingly reluctant to tighten again immediately. The September headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.6% month/month (m/m) and 3.7% year/year (y/y), while core inflation increased 0.3% m/m and accelerated to 2.6% y/y from 2.4%.
Being able to recognize one’s blind spots and knowing when to bring in another financial professional can be just as impactful. Identifying where those boundaries exist can help advisors continue to excel in their area of expertise while helping clients build financial plans that strengthen their future.
A week filled with hotter inflation readings brought growing concerns about the sustainability of the pace of AI spending. Despite rising inflation, bond yields ended the week lower. While the S&P 500 Index of large-cap stocks fell 1.95 percent for the week, the decline was largely driven by its heavy weighting to technology stocks, which faltered by 6.37 percent.
While don’t think of myself as being old, I can’t call myself young anymore. When I go to the gym, it takes me longer to stretch than to work out. People my age debate the best vitamin supplements, not the best burger joints. When I am asked for identification at the market, it isn’t to confirm I am old enough to buy beer; it’s to see whether I am eligible for a senior discount.
Predicting the direction of interest rates is challenging enough when economic conditions are relatively stable. Add persistent inflation, a resilient economy, a cooling labor market, geopolitical uncertainty, and an expanding supply of Treasury debt, and the challenge becomes considerably greater.
The US Treasury market is entering a new era. Financing government debt is becoming less about capital availability and more about the yield required to attract it.
This year, the software sector has been one of the worst-performing pockets of the leveraged loan market amid fears that AI would severely disrupt existing business models. The sector’s underperformance has also weighed on the leveraged loan asset class as a whole, given its more than 10% weight in the overall Morningstar LSTA US Leveraged Loan Index.
A full pantry feels safe. A full balance sheet can too. But abundance and preparedness aren't the same thing. Instead of adding something new, financial advisors should consider digging into a portfolio and pulling everything off the shelf for examination, with the intent of fully understanding what’s already in there.
The Mega Backdoor Roth may be one of the most powerful tools in a long-term 401(k) planning strategy. It can pair well with other high-earner tax strategies and belongs in any serious conversation about retirement tax diversification.
For many people, AI tools will be worth paying for. However, it is wise to decide, before any bills arrive, how much in very real money those tools are worth to you.
A vendor who sells you wiring and calls it electricity has understood one step of the problem and mistaken it for the whole. That is simply a vendor selling the only part they can deliver, and that arrives with an invoice attached.
Chris Galipeau and Taylor Topousis discuss high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
The Nasdaq-VettaFi Asset Allocation Summit this week included insights from leaders at key asset managers discussing the major decisions that advisors are facing. With costs rising and many investors at or near retirement, fixed income and income ETFs, specifically, took up a big part of the conversation. Leaders from BlackRock, WisdomTree, and Fidelity Investments all shared their views on both the fixed income outlook and the use cases for fixed income ETFs right now.
On July 24, China’s Ministry of Finance and State Taxation Administration announced that putting assets into an offshore trust, and earning income through one, are taxable events. The rate is 20%, and it applies not just when assets go in but also when they earn income and when the trust is wound down.
Think interest rates are peaking? If so, agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) deserve a look. Think rates have further to climb? MBS may still earn a place in your fixed-income allocation. In this article, I weigh the pros and cons of MBS at current yields, explain what will drive future returns, and share how individual investors can gain exposure.
Discover how strong corporate earnings, AI capex cycles, and 5%–10% fixed income yields outweigh midterm election and Fed rate uncertainties.
S&P 500 investors have doubled their bets on the top 10 stocks, so their performance is twice as dependent on those 10 stocks. Is that a good bet? Who knows, but it is a large bet. Time will tell.
There is a general framework to inflation, and it is older than any of us. Prices can rise because buyers are bidding for scarce goods with money they’ve actually earned. Or prices can rise because the cost of producing something has jumped for reasons unrelated to demand.
In this commentary, we look at three themes shaping our thinking: a shift in who is leading the market, the return of income as a meaningful source of return, and an economy that, in our view, is growing steadily rather than heading toward either extreme.
Corporate bond yields are high, but spreads are low. Low spreads are supported by strong corporate fundamentals, and high yields might help offset potential price declines.
As we enter the final quarter of 2026, the investment backdrop remains constructive but increasingly differentiated. Economic growth and corporate earnings have remained resilient, while continued investment in artificial intelligence (AI) and other productivity-enhancing technologies has supported capital spending and market sentiment.
Elon Musk’s decision to wade into US mobile-phone services sets up a challenge distinct from anything he’s previously pursued. This is not a new market or an added twist that fills an industry gap such as his innovations with electric vehicles, broadband from low-earth orbit or an online payment system — the areas where Musk made his riches.
CoreWeave Inc. has become caught in a tug of war between investors who see rising bond yields as a potential rally killer for the AI trade and those who think demand for computing power will make those concerns seem passe before long.
In a potential test of the law of unintended consequences, the Securities and Exchange Commission has released a rule proposal that would make it far easier for private equity, venture capital and private capital fund managers to attract — and tap into — the savings of retail investors.
We agree that the economy has appeared remarkably resilient at the aggregate level, and that modest further rate increases may not put overall growth at risk. But the more important question for portfolios is not the level of inflation; it is its sensitivity to rates.
If markets are good at one thing, it's reminding investors that stock prices don't simply go up, uninterrupted, forever. I have updated this report several times since it was initially published in 2008, and given recent market volatility, it made sense to do so again.
An income projection can provide an important starting point for year-end tax planning. Explore key 2026 tax brackets and income thresholds that may help inform planning decisions before year-end.
Central banks are tightening, and stocks are still within reach of their highs. The Fed hiked on September 16 for the first time since 2023, and the 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.34% this month, its highest level since 2002. Even so, the S&P 500 sits within roughly 2.5% of its record, and Japanese equities recently set fresh all-time highs.
As we round the three-quarter pole and head into the final stretch of 2026, the prevailing investment narrative has, of course, been AI, along with its pros and cons. Since March, when the Iran conflict began, there has been a secondary drumbeat that continues to get louder and louder: the narrative surrounding bond prices, interest rates, inflation, and the economy.
In light of accelerating global fragmentation and geopolitical conflict, many governments and businesses are investing in resilience. That imperative has coincided with the emergence of AI, a technology that can expand the frontier of what is possible. As a result, technology security is becoming a pillar of national economic security strategy.
As AI in wealth management becomes more prevalent, recent research from Vanguard suggests that technology may actually increase investors’ appreciation for human expertise.
BlackRock, WisdomTree, and Fidelity Investments had representation at the recent Nasdaq VettaFi Asset Allocation summit.
Retirement Income
The Big Picture Beats Politics
Election Day has markets watching how divided Washington will be over the coming two years. Jeff Schulze shares insights for investors based on different potential outcomes.
A Volatile Quarter, and Where We See It Heading
The broad markets experienced volatility in the 3rd quarter with concerns over the impact of energy prices on inflation as well as CapEx spending by hyperscaler companies in the AI space driving technology stocks. The price of WTI Crude oil rallied sharply during the quarter by nearly 30%.
Forget the Macro. Latin America Needs Micro Warriors
Once prone to external shocks, Latin America has weathered this year’s geopolitical upheavals largely unscathed.
When Protecting Benefits Gets in the Way of Building Independence
If working allows someone to earn money, build relationships, develop skills, and experience greater independence, we should not assume the answer is to refrain from doing so simply because a benefit might change. We should first understand what might change and then help that individual pursue as much opportunity and independence as possible.
Permanent WFH Is AI’s Best Promise Yet
Technology took us out of our homes. It gave us a boss, office politics and an alarm clock — and it was awful. We got used to it; we made it work. Now technology might take those jobs away. But perhaps it will also restore the autonomy and flexibility that once defined work.
Can Q3 Earnings Get Back on Track After Being Rattled by Big Tech's AI Prints?
Last week, the AI trade began to crack further with Alphabet’s release, missing on both the top and bottom lines. Mirroring Meta’s print from the prior week, massive AI capex turned free cash flow negative, alarming investors.
Above-Average Returns: Why The Next Decade Differs
In 2016, McKinsey warned that the “golden era” for investors had ended. Falling rates, fatter margins, and a rising multiple had done their work in creating above-average returns. Younger savers, the report said, would have to work seven more years or save nearly twice as much.
R&D: A Long-Term Investment
Innovation takes time—very often years—and can be expensive. For example, it wasn’t so long ago that Nvidia was considered to be just a gaming company. Today, it is one of the largest companies in the world with a dominant position in hardware and software tools powering the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution.
Will the Bond Market Retire the French Pension?
Social contracts are written for the population of their day, but while populations change, contracts rarely do. France is now the clearest case study of that collision.
Medicare Decisions Are Becoming a Financial Planning Blind Spot
Medicare's annual enrollment period gives advisors an opportunity to revisit healthcare coverage with clients. While advisors needn't become Medicare experts, they can help identify issues that warrant a closer look or consultation with a qualified Medicare professional.
The Fed Risks a Policy Error Fighting Oil Prices
The prolonged impact of raising the Fed Funds rate, coupled with the recent surge in long-term bond yields, is exactly the kind of over-restrictive policy mistake the bond market may be worried about, helping explain the recent decline in long-term yields.
Social Security's Depletion Date Moved Inside Your Client's Retirement
Instead of making defensive, fear-driven claiming choices, financial planners are urged to stress-test retirement plans against a baseline 78% benefit level to ensure essential expenses remain covered.
Bonds Are Down Again — Why Clients Should Rejoice!
Investors who own bonds are seeing losses in their accounts. Many are not happy, and many just want out. The losses over the past five years are significant. After the biggest decline in the history of the bond market in 2022, bonds stabilized until this year, when the decline resumed. Here’s why I tell clients that they should be thrilled.
Musk Is on to Something With His Stock Handout Idea
When Elon Musk pledged to give a share of SpaceX to each child in the US, the proclamation was met with a certain amount of skepticism. Regardless of Musk’s motivation or whether his promise comes to fruition, he has — inadvertently or not — hit on a worthwhile idea.
Policy Options Are Available Now to Lower U.S. Mortgage Rates
Rising U.S. Treasury yields have added fresh strain to the U.S. housing market. The average 30-year mortgage rate, which generally tracks the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield plus a mortgage spread, rose to 7.5% in October 2026, according to Mortgage Bankers Association data, worsening an affordability crunch that remains a top concern among U.S. households.
What Institutional Investors Should Know About After-Hours Trading for U.S. Equities
Starting December 6, 2026, Nasdaq and NYSE Arca will officially launch extended trading sessions, expanding U.S. stock trading to up to 23 hours a day, five days a week.
Why Large-Cap Stocks Hold the Edge in a 5% Rate World
Large-cap stocks may be better built for 5% Treasury yields than their smaller rivals, according to State Street Investment Management’s quarterly outlook. The 10-year yield climbed 0.81 percentage points last quarter to 5.28%, a near 20-year high.
Infrastructure’s Essential Assets Have Expanding Ambitions
Infrastructure has long been valued for its defensive characteristics, income potential and ability to protect against inflation. Essential assets such as electricity networks, pipelines, railways, airports and toll roads typically benefit from high barriers to entry and predictable revenues.
7 Hot Stocks: The Picture Worth a Thousand Spreadsheets
Chuck Carnevale analyzes seven stocks using FAST Graphs, showing how earnings, cash flow, and valuation charts reveal the business behind the stock price—and why a popular stock is not always an attractive investment.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Personal Income
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.18% in September and was up 4.21% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was down 0.31% month-over-month and up 0.54% year-over-year.
October FOMC Recap—No Hike But Hawk Talk Persists
The Fed held rates steady at its October meeting but kept the door open to further tightening, with two dissenting votes and hawkish rhetoric signaling that the pause is a skip, not a stop.
State Street Adds Mutual Fund Share for S&P 500 ETF SPYM
The new SPYM ETF mutual fund share class, SPYMX, may yet pick up some strong new flows with its appeal to institutional investors.
Wall Street Turns Ruthless as Earnings Misses Fuel Deep Selloffs
Equity investors are meting out some of the harshest punishments ever for companies that miss expectations, just as strategists sound the alarm that earnings growth has likely peaked.
The US Small-Cap Bull Market: A Correction, Not a Conclusion
Royce Investment Partners: Co-CIO Francis Gannon details why recent volatility looks like the typical pattern of a US small-cap leadership cycle.
The AI Soft Landing Scenario
After overshooting projections for years, AI capex is slowing down. The shift doesn’t spell the end of the AI trade but a move to a more mature, predictable cycle that favors higher-quality borrowers.
Year-End Charitable Giving: Understanding the New Tax Rules
New charitable deduction rules may affect year-end giving strategies. Bill Cass examines the changes for 2026 and considerations for taxpayers looking to align charitable goals with tax planning.
America Is Getting a Peek at Its Debt Future, and It’s Scary
Many long simmering tensions boiled over in France’s protests and riots. Rising borrowing costs for the government proved a crucial pressure point — a message from bondholders grown impatient with a lack of pension reform and the country’s enormous welfare state. Americans would do well to pay attention.
Mind the $2 Trillion Gap
With the recent movements in both the stock and bond markets, there was some noteworthy news that got kind of lost. Indeed, the U.S. government posted a $1.99 trillion budget deficit for fiscal year (FY) 2026. While technically it is not a record amount of red-ink, it represented the largest non-COVID-related shortfall ever recorded in modern history.
Commodity ETFs: Beyond the Gold Trade
Gold has traditionally been one of the most popular ways for investors to gain commodity exposure, but its recent weakness highlights the differences across various commodities. While precious metals have struggled, energy and certain agricultural commodities have seen stronger returns. Existing diversified strategies are also giving investors more ways to access commodities beyond traditional gold funds.
The Massive Advantage This Income ETF Brings to Portfolios
Income ETF strategies have exploded in popularity in recent years. Historically, investors have looked to bond coupons to add durability to their portfolios. The explosion of ETF popularity, launches, and adoption, however, has seen some intriguing options join the fray. The Goldman Sachs Municipal Income ETF (GMUB), which hits its three-year ETF milestone next year, represents just such a strategy.
5 Leadership Keys for Successful Teams
Gallup estimates that 70% of a team’s overall success lies with the leader of the team. Here are five takeaways from this year’s class that might be helpful, whether you are firmly in a leadership role, leading without formal authority, or presently climbing the ladder at your firm.
Strong Economic Data Meets Rising AI Concerns
Economic data that continued to show a strong U.S. economy, housing aside, took a back seat this week as investors once again focused on potential risks to future growth: rising energy prices, sticky inflation, and most importantly, questions about the sustainability of the artificial intelligence (AI) boom.
Value Breakout Shows Benefits of Diversification
There was very little macroeconomic news last week, but there was certainly no shortage of action in the markets. We saw an extraordinarily sharp rotation out of growth and into value, with both the Russell Value Index and the S&P Value Index reaching all-time highs even as the Nasdaq suffered one of its largest recent selloffs. That is a dramatic divergence, but historically it is not unprecedented.
The Midterm Market Effect
US midterm elections take place on Tuesday, November 3. Currently, the Republican party is in control of the House and the Senate. This vote will essentially be a referendum on the Republican party’s body of work. It’s likely the composition of either the House or the Senate will change.
Your Clients Don’t Want a Market Update. They Want to Know You.
Clients want to understand how the advisor thinks, what they value, and what guides them when hard decisions arise. Your clients want to hear a familiar voice, not another generic, institutional message that could have come from any firm in the country.
Microsoft to Offer Buyouts to 60,000 Workers in New Cost Cut
Microsoft Corp. will offer buyouts to about 60,000 workers, representing roughly a quarter of its total staff, as part of the company’s efforts to trim costs and retool its workforce for the artificial intelligence era.
Griffin May Be Right About AI. The Timing Could Be Very Wrong.
Ken Griffin told a room full of investors recently that we are “almost certainly” in an AI bubble. He may well be correct in that assessment, and there are plenty of media narratives that support that view.
Solid Real GDP Growth in Q3
We estimate the US economy grew at a 3.3% annual rate in the third quarter. Solid. Robust even, considering that net immigration is near zero and possibly negative, while Baby Boomers continue to gradually drift into retirement.
AI Wobbles. Treasuries Step Up.
Rick Polsinello, Christian Galipeau Discuss high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
The Other Side of Higher Yields
We have been arguing that the reset higher in yields has restored the dual role of bonds in multi-asset portfolios: providing attractive income while once again offering the potential for meaningful risk mitigation. This month’s tech market turbulence has provided a clear example: As equities came under pressure, U.S. Treasury yields fell amid a flight to safety, allowing duration to behave like a diversifier again.
Time to Extend Bond ETF Duration?
The bond market is flashing levels not seen in nearly two decades. The 10-year Treasury yield is hovering near 5%, while real yields — measured by Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS) — are at their highest since before the 2008 financial crisis.
AI Is Proving Yet Again That Americans Are the Most Generous People on Earth
Last year, U.S. charitable giving hit a record $617.20 billion, according to Giving USA. That’s the first time it’s ever topped $600 billion. Individuals gave $394.2 billion of that, foundations gave $117.15 billion, bequests added $62.19 billion and corporations contributed $43.67 billion.
Are Bonds Pricing In a Fed Policy Mistake?
Imagine someone looking into a crystal ball on October 1 and telling you what was about to happen: September CPI data would come in higher than expected, PPI would rise 1.3% (well above the 0.5% forecast), and crude oil would climb $10 in the next two weeks alone.
A Crowded Exit? A Discussion on the Yen Carry Trade
At its core, a carry trade is simply borrowing where money is relatively cheap (Japan) and investing where the expected return is higher (U.S.). This strategy captures the difference in interest rates, but it also exposes investors to changes in interest rates and foreign currency exchange rates.
How Melanoma Became the Proving Ground for a Personalized Cancer Vaccine
A few months ago, Georgina Long received a message asking her to call a collaborator at Merck & Co. She feared the worst.
CoreWeave Rout Sends Warning Sign to Rest of Stock Market
Wall Street strategists are warning that declines in shares of AI cloud-computing providers will spill into other corners of the tech trade, potentially dragging the US stock market down to its June lows.
Q3 Peak Season Arrives: Strong Beats, Sky-High AI Scrutiny
This marks the first peak week of Q3 earnings season, with 1,885 companies expected to report and overall S&P 500 EPS growth holding at a robust 29.5%
Fed Over-Tightening: How Much Runway Is Left Before It Bites?
The Fed is hiking to prove it can beat inflation. The danger is that it proves the point with the one economy that can’t afford to lose.
A Checklist May Help Taxpayers Navigate Year-End Planning
With several provisions of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) taking effect in 2026, year-end planning may present new opportunities and considerations for taxpayers. It’s important to assess personal finances before the end of the year to determine if action is needed.
Three Themes That Matter More Than the Midterms
With the U.S. midterm elections mere weeks away, it can be easy to get swept up in the headlines and questions about what different outcomes might mean for markets.
Kalshi Courts Wall Street in Bid to Be the ‘Inflation Exchange’
Kalshi Inc. is opening up a new frontier in its rivalry with traditional financial exchanges by pitching the world’s largest banks and hedge funds on a futures market tied to US inflation.
It Pays to Be Picky With TIPS ETFs
The Federal Reserve is engaged in a well-documented battle with high inflation. So, many advisors and fixed income investors are evaluating Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS) and related ETFs.
How 2026 May Set the Table for Stronger Bond Returns
For many bond investors, 2026 has stirred up uncomfortable memories of 2022. Yields have climbed sharply as bond prices have come under pressure and the Federal Reserve has raised its policy interest rate target.
Calm on the Surface, Steady as She Goes?
Markets look calm on the surface, but AI-driven shifts in capital allocation, earnings quality, and funding needs are reshaping risks and opportunities beneath the index level.
What Do Higher Yields Mean for Retirement Income?
Higher bond yields may offer retirees more income potential, but a diversified approach that balances income, risk, and spending needs remains important.
October Fed Meeting Preview: A Pause Is Still a Recalibration
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the policy-setting group within the U.S. Federal Reserve, meets on 27–28 October to discuss the economic outlook and appropriate monetary policy. We expect the FOMC to hold the policy rate at 3.75%–4.0% while keeping a clear tightening bias.
All-or-Nothing Biotech Bets Dented by Rising Treasury Yields
Investors are beginning to turn cautious on biotechnology stocks as a rapid rise in Treasury yields dents the appeal for shares of companies that are often viewed as risky all-or-nothing bets on breakthrough medical treatments.
The Return of Income: Bonds Reclaim Their Role
After years when yield was scarce and investors were pushed further out on the risk spectrum, income is investable again. High-quality bonds can once more provide meaningful cash flow, portfolio stability and a credible path to total return without requiring an aggressive call on interest rates or credit.
Resilient Growth, Sticky Inflation
Last week saw a further deterioration in the inflation outlook, while the Federal Reserve (Fed) appears increasingly reluctant to tighten again immediately. The September headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.6% month/month (m/m) and 3.7% year/year (y/y), while core inflation increased 0.3% m/m and accelerated to 2.6% y/y from 2.4%.
Understanding Your Limits Can Make You a Better Financial Advisor
Being able to recognize one’s blind spots and knowing when to bring in another financial professional can be just as impactful. Identifying where those boundaries exist can help advisors continue to excel in their area of expertise while helping clients build financial plans that strengthen their future.
Higher Rates Put the AI Buildout to the Test
A week filled with hotter inflation readings brought growing concerns about the sustainability of the pace of AI spending. Despite rising inflation, bond yields ended the week lower. While the S&P 500 Index of large-cap stocks fell 1.95 percent for the week, the decline was largely driven by its heavy weighting to technology stocks, which faltered by 6.37 percent.
Age Isn't Just a Number
While don’t think of myself as being old, I can’t call myself young anymore. When I go to the gym, it takes me longer to stretch than to work out. People my age debate the best vitamin supplements, not the best burger joints. When I am asked for identification at the market, it isn’t to confirm I am old enough to buy beer; it’s to see whether I am eligible for a senior discount.
Forecasting Interest Rates - Investment Objectives
Predicting the direction of interest rates is challenging enough when economic conditions are relatively stable. Add persistent inflation, a resilient economy, a cooling labor market, geopolitical uncertainty, and an expanding supply of Treasury debt, and the challenge becomes considerably greater.
US Treasuries: A Market in Transition
The US Treasury market is entering a new era. Financing government debt is becoming less about capital availability and more about the yield required to attract it.
Improved Optics But Unchanged Economics in Software Loans
This year, the software sector has been one of the worst-performing pockets of the leveraged loan market amid fears that AI would severely disrupt existing business models. The sector’s underperformance has also weighed on the leveraged loan asset class as a whole, given its more than 10% weight in the overall Morningstar LSTA US Leveraged Loan Index.
What’s Expired in Your Client’s Financial Pantry?
A full pantry feels safe. A full balance sheet can too. But abundance and preparedness aren't the same thing. Instead of adding something new, financial advisors should consider digging into a portfolio and pulling everything off the shelf for examination, with the intent of fully understanding what’s already in there.
Mega Backdoor Roth for High Earners: A Playbook for Your Clients
The Mega Backdoor Roth may be one of the most powerful tools in a long-term 401(k) planning strategy. It can pair well with other high-earner tax strategies and belongs in any serious conversation about retirement tax diversification.
The Hidden Costs of AI: Are You Paying Attention?
For many people, AI tools will be worth paying for. However, it is wise to decide, before any bills arrive, how much in very real money those tools are worth to you.
They're Selling You the Wiring and Calling It Electricity
A vendor who sells you wiring and calls it electricity has understood one step of the problem and mistaken it for the whole. That is simply a vendor selling the only part they can deliver, and that arrives with an invoice attached.
Hot Inflation. Cold Chips. Stay Diversified.
Chris Galipeau and Taylor Topousis discuss high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
BlackRock, WisdomTree, Fidelity Leaders Talk Fixed Income ETFs
The Nasdaq-VettaFi Asset Allocation Summit this week included insights from leaders at key asset managers discussing the major decisions that advisors are facing. With costs rising and many investors at or near retirement, fixed income and income ETFs, specifically, took up a big part of the conversation. Leaders from BlackRock, WisdomTree, and Fidelity Investments all shared their views on both the fixed income outlook and the use cases for fixed income ETFs right now.
Wealth Taxes Are Driving Money Out of China and California
On July 24, China’s Ministry of Finance and State Taxation Administration announced that putting assets into an offshore trust, and earning income through one, are taxable events. The rate is 20%, and it applies not just when assets go in but also when they earn income and when the trust is wound down.
Think Rates Are Peaking? Consider Mortgage-Backed Securities
Think interest rates are peaking? If so, agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) deserve a look. Think rates have further to climb? MBS may still earn a place in your fixed-income allocation. In this article, I weigh the pros and cons of MBS at current yields, explain what will drive future returns, and share how individual investors can gain exposure.
Midterms, AI & Fed Hikes: What Financial Advisors Need to Know
Discover how strong corporate earnings, AI capex cycles, and 5%–10% fixed income yields outweigh midterm election and Fed rate uncertainties.
The Room at the Top of the S&P 500 Has Become Twice as Crowded
S&P 500 investors have doubled their bets on the top 10 stocks, so their performance is twice as dependent on those 10 stocks. Is that a good bet? Who knows, but it is a large bet. Time will tell.
Bad Inflation Cures Itself. Good Inflation Doesn’t
There is a general framework to inflation, and it is older than any of us. Prices can rise because buyers are bidding for scarce goods with money they’ve actually earned. Or prices can rise because the cost of producing something has jumped for reasons unrelated to demand.
Q3 2026 Investment & Market Update
In this commentary, we look at three themes shaping our thinking: a shift in who is leading the market, the return of income as a meaningful source of return, and an economy that, in our view, is growing steadily rather than heading toward either extreme.
Why Do Corporate Bonds Look Attractive Now?
Corporate bond yields are high, but spreads are low. Low spreads are supported by strong corporate fundamentals, and high yields might help offset potential price declines.
Hedge Fund Strategy Outlook: Fourth Quarter 2026
As we enter the final quarter of 2026, the investment backdrop remains constructive but increasingly differentiated. Economic growth and corporate earnings have remained resilient, while continued investment in artificial intelligence (AI) and other productivity-enhancing technologies has supported capital spending and market sentiment.
A Bruising Battle Awaits Musk and SpaceX in Mobile Services
Elon Musk’s decision to wade into US mobile-phone services sets up a challenge distinct from anything he’s previously pursued. This is not a new market or an added twist that fills an industry gap such as his innovations with electric vehicles, broadband from low-earth orbit or an online payment system — the areas where Musk made his riches.
CoreWeave Stock Wipeout Exposes Divide Between AI Fear and Greed
CoreWeave Inc. has become caught in a tug of war between investors who see rising bond yields as a potential rally killer for the AI trade and those who think demand for computing power will make those concerns seem passe before long.
The SEC Should Protect Investors, Not Private Funds
In a potential test of the law of unintended consequences, the Securities and Exchange Commission has released a rule proposal that would make it far easier for private equity, venture capital and private capital fund managers to attract — and tap into — the savings of retail investors.
The Edge Comes from Asking Better Questions
We agree that the economy has appeared remarkably resilient at the aggregate level, and that modest further rate increases may not put overall growth at risk. But the more important question for portfolios is not the level of inflation; it is its sensitivity to rates.
Panic Is Not a Strategy—Nor Is Greed
If markets are good at one thing, it's reminding investors that stock prices don't simply go up, uninterrupted, forever. I have updated this report several times since it was initially published in 2008, and given recent market volatility, it made sense to do so again.
Year-End Planning Begins With Projecting Income
An income projection can provide an important starting point for year-end tax planning. Explore key 2026 tax brackets and income thresholds that may help inform planning decisions before year-end.
Equities: On Hikes and Highs
Central banks are tightening, and stocks are still within reach of their highs. The Fed hiked on September 16 for the first time since 2023, and the 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.34% this month, its highest level since 2002. Even so, the S&P 500 sits within roughly 2.5% of its record, and Japanese equities recently set fresh all-time highs.
What’s Driving Rates Up and Bonds Down?
As we round the three-quarter pole and head into the final stretch of 2026, the prevailing investment narrative has, of course, been AI, along with its pros and cons. Since March, when the Iran conflict began, there has been a secondary drumbeat that continues to get louder and louder: the narrative surrounding bond prices, interest rates, inflation, and the economy.
The AI Investment Boom Goes Beyond America
In light of accelerating global fragmentation and geopolitical conflict, many governments and businesses are investing in resilience. That imperative has coincided with the emergence of AI, a technology that can expand the frontier of what is possible. As a result, technology security is becoming a pillar of national economic security strategy.
How AI Could Increase the Value of Human Financial Advice
As AI in wealth management becomes more prevalent, recent research from Vanguard suggests that technology may actually increase investors’ appreciation for human expertise.
BlackRock, WisdomTree, Fidelity Leaders Talk Fixed Income ETFs
BlackRock, WisdomTree, and Fidelity Investments had representation at the recent Nasdaq VettaFi Asset Allocation summit.