The Northern ETF SKOR crossed the $1 billion AUM threshold following $247 million in recent inflows amid surging corporate bond yields.
Assets under management tell you what a client is worth today. Upward mobility and enjoyment tell you what the relationship is worth. Build your practice around the second number, and the first one tends to follow.
US equity futures held firm Tuesday despite a deepening selloff in chipmakers, as traders sorted through a slew of bank results from JPMorgan Chase & Co., Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and other lenders in the start to third-quarter corporate earnings season.
You’ve surely heard the standard advice that people should own more bonds than stocks as they age because stocks are riskier and older investors have less time to recover losses. I’ve always thought it was a half-baked idea, and rising interest rates show how costly it can be.
With the 10-year Treasury yield at its highest level since 2002, buying bonds at 5% is the first real alternative that stock investors have had in nearly two decades.
Our Senior Portfolio Manager and Head of Global Sustainable Investing, Kris Nelson, sees markets balancing several competing forces this week, from renewed oil-price volatility to softer labor data and increasingly demanding expectations around AI earnings.
Taylor Topousis and Christian Galipeau discuss high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
Earlier last week, a supertanker loading crude in the Gulf of Oman was fixed at $1.01 million a day for a voyage to Asia, with another deal reportedly agreed at $1.16 million.
The market continues to hold near all-time highs despite pressure from higher bond yields. This week brought relatively little economic data, but the important takeaway is that the underlying economy still looks strong. High-frequency indicators, jobless claims and consumer spending data continue to point to solid growth, while this week’s CPI, PPI and retail sales reports will provide the next important test for both the economy and the Federal Reserve.
Tokenization has taken hold in money market funds, leaving ETFs room to grow, while Cerulli eyes private markets as the long-term prize.
What matters most now is not merely whether I can improve a client's financial position. It is how I help advance the financial and personal direction of that client's life in a meaningful way.
By generation, Gen Z and Millennials now make up 88% of online betting activity. Gen X trails at 9%. Boomers barely register. As recently as this spring, Millennials were the bigger group. Then Gen Z passed them, and Bank of America called it a “turning point.”
For nearly four years, economists have been predicting that consumers would fail to sustain the economy. Yet despite many reasons for consumers to retrench, real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) grew 2.6% through September. The bottom line: Consumers keep worrying but keep spending.
The Fed's recent rate increase may not develop into a hiking cycle as extensive as the one that began in 2022 because much of today's inflation pressure comes from supply constraints rather than broad economic overheating, where demand exceeds the economy's productive capacity.
I write my letter as if I’m writing to friends, which I consider you to be. How many times do you get together with friends and you focus on just one topic? The usual friendly dinner conversation covers lots of topics. This week is a multiple topic letter, but with so much happening, how could it not be?
Western Asset’s Ion Dan explains why he thinks the fundamental case for agency mortgage-backed securities has strengthened.
US Treasury yields have moved sharply higher, with the 10-year yield rising roughly 45 basis points over the past month to about 5.25%. That has understandably revived concerns about what higher bond yields could mean for equities.
Is it time to bail out of stocks — or to stay the course? Who knows? In the meantime, we can array recent stock returns against history to put 2026 into context and allow readers to judge for themselves.
Headlines are popping up left and right about how high the 10-year Treasury yield has risen. While investors make decisions about what is the “right” longer-term cost of government debt, many journalists focus on single-factor ways of viewing it.
Investment performance is often measured by what a portfolio earns. But for investors with substantial assets across taxable, tax-deferred, and tax-free accounts, what they keep after taxes can be just as important.
ClearBridge Investments: With the economy still resilient, a gradual Federal Reserve hiking cycle could help broaden market leadership beyond the Magnificent Seven.
The economist Robert Solow’s famous 1987 adage about the computer age — it can be seen everywhere except the productivity statistics — also applies to generative artificial intelligence.
Stocks chopped this summer as high hopes for AI product and infrastructure development were offset by rising inflation and an increasingly hawkish Federal Reserve.
For decades, investors have used growth and value allocations as a foundational block of equity portfolio construction. The distinction has been intuitive and practical. Investors expected growth to provide exposure to faster-growing companies, often with higher valuation multiples and greater sensitivity to earnings expectations.
The U.S. economy remained resilient in Q3, with 2.2% real GDP growth, 4.1% unemployment, and inflation easing to 3.4%. Rising interest rates reflect persistent inflation concerns. The AI boom continues despite growing skepticism, while tariff uncertainty persists. The Iran war remains unresolved, supporting higher oil-price risks. Muhlenkamp added oil, software, and animal-health investments at attractive valuations.
After a nine-month rally in equity markets and a recent spike in bond yields, some investors may see fit to reduce their exposure to stocks. On the surface at least, bonds appear to offer better value than equities. The gap between stocks' earnings yields, the inverse of the price-to-earnings ratio, and bond yields is narrower than it has been in two decades.
AI's labor-market impact remains limited but uneven, as productivity and profits outpace hiring and import-heavy investment dampens U.S. job growth.
Rising interest rates can affect more than investment portfolios. Explore how changing IRS interest rates may influence several estate, charitable and tax-planning strategies.
As globalization recedes, governments and businesses have stronger incentives to invest in building more resilient societies and supply chains. That imperative has coincided with the emergence of artificial intelligence, creating a powerful interaction between technological innovation and economic security.
Market participants have been conditioned to expect clear Forward Guidance from Fed Chairs and Ben Bernanke, Janet Yellen, and Jay Powell provided it continuously, especially after the Financial Crisis. Chairman Warsh has made it clear that Forward Guidance will be less under his leadership, but he has offered a very important qualifier that many have yet to grasp.
Inflation progress remains uneven: The latest Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index showed some improvement after revisions, but several measures suggest price pressures remain sticky and above the Federal Reserve’s target
Seven months into the U.S.–Iran conflict, few historical analogues have held. The trajectory of oil prices has been consistent with previous geopolitical shocks, but the market response elsewhere has looked strikingly different. U.S. Treasury yields have moved notably higher, for example, while credit spreads have remained remarkably resilient.
This year has marked another remarkable chapter for the global economy and financial markets. Investors have navigated no shortage of challenges, from geopolitical conflicts and trade tensions to elevated energy prices and shifting interest rate expectations. Yet despite these headwinds, the economy continues to expand, corporate earnings remain resilient and markets have steadily climbed the proverbial wall of worry.
The latest employment report was softer on the headline numbers, but I thought the underlying details were quite constructive. Payroll growth came in below expectations and the prior two months were revised downward, yet labor-force participation increased and the workweek stabilized rather than declining as expected.
In this month’s issue, AI, energy and robotics are creating new opportunities in emerging markets, but selectivity remains key as policy, cost and execution risks evolve.
The most-read articles on Advisor Perspectives in September included a variety of topics, though the top story for the month focused on a key part of practice management — how you charge your clients.
Diversifying your portfolio across the globe will not completely insulate you from a bad year in equities, because global markets tend to rise and fall together. However, that diversification can help shield your retirement resources from the decline of any single country.
We understand that you can’t forecast the sequence of returns, but we CAN build a plan that survives a bad one. As Howard Marks puts it, you can’t predict, but you can prepare. These are the rules of engagement once you’ve crossed from saving into spending.
While the majority of advisors, 62%, still use an AUM-based fee model to charge clients, a growing number have said they now charge a retainer fee. In 2023, only 14% of advisors offering financial planning services said their compensation model was an annual retainer, while 38% said the same in the 2026 State of Financial Planning Fees study.
How’s the US economy doing in President Donald Trump’s second term? Going by the topline economic statistics, not too bad. Second-quarter gross domestic product was revised higher last week, to a 2.2% annualized rate from a previously reported 1.5%. At 4.2%, the jobless rate is consistent with an economy considered to be at full employment.
Today’s employment report reinforced a trend that has been evident across several labor market indicators: conditions in the goods-producing sector continue to improve after several difficult years, while hiring across the much larger service sector continues to soften.
Our real gross domestic product (GDP) forecast for 2026 is 2.5% (based on our Global Investment Management Survey) versus the Federal Reserve’s (Fed's) forecast of 2.2% and the Wall Street consensus of around 2%.
Executives enter the earnings season with a bit of a swagger. They won't say it out loud, of course, but consider all the headwinds CEOs of companies big and small have faced in the last few years. First, it was imminent recession fears; then it was looming tariffs (followed by the shock of April 2025).
Global equities advanced in the third quarter as market returns broadened away from technology. But AI’s disruptive impact is spreading across sectors and industries—transforming the very nature of investment diversification.
How much one needs for retirement is both a mathematical and emotional equation to solve. For both my clients and myself, enough is never enough because we fear a stock market plunge, inflation, or both (stagflation). But these four practical uses of TIPS provide near certainty of having enough to enjoy the rest of one’s life. Rarely do math and emotion each arrive at the same solution.
Today, TINA logic is less compelling. Risk-free five-year and longer Treasury notes and bonds yield over 5%, and investment-grade corporate bonds yield even more. At the same time, stock valuations sit near record levels, implying weak forward returns. The acronym that best describes today's market is TIGA (there is a good alternative).
Financial planners are used to reviewing their executive clients’ financial plans when a major life event occurs, whether it is a promotion, a significant salary increase, retirement, or a liquidity event. But what happens when the client stays in the exact same seat while the organization around them changes fundamentally?
Wall Street has spent weeks trying to make peace with the great bond selloff. Friday offered some short-lived relief — along with a warning about the damage from stubbornly high yields across investment strategies of all stripes.
Remember when near-zero interest rates squeezed retirees on fixed incomes and left pensions with huge shortfalls? I suspect they’re happy to see US interest rates returning to normal.
Neither a borrower nor a lender be,” wrote William Shakespeare, who was one of history’s greatest authors but obviously ill-versed in economics. Without lending or borrowing, our modern economic society wouldn’t grow very much, AI or not.
For a quarter of a century, the hyperscalers have been some of the most profitable and technologically innovative businesses ever created. The reason was clear: their marginal cost per additional customer was almost zero. Costs were fixed and scale was effectively unlimited, which meant margins widened as volume grew.
Recent bond market repricing has pushed municipal yields to levels not seen in decades and improved the potential risk-reward profile for fixed income. Here, we examine why municipals stand out, how supportive credit fundamentals shape the opportunity and why investors may benefit from extending maturities to lock in attractive tax-exempt income.
The Fed’s latest 25 basis point hike might represent a recalibration rather than tightening. Instead of focusing on the next hike, investors should watch broader financial conditions and the long-term trajectory for interest rates.
Investors who have owned securities for many years can accumulate significant unrealized gains. Selling those investments to reposition a portfolio can trigger capital gains taxes.
Market participants have been conditioned to expect clear Forward Guidance from Fed Chairs. Chairman Warsh has made it clear that Forward Guidance will be less under his leadership, but he has offered a very important qualifier that many have yet to grasp.
Today, we’re going to look at a lot of various data points and analysis, that when taken together give us a much clearer picture of the total world.
Emerging markets have significantly evolved in recent years and offer a more compelling risk/reward setup than in the past. From deeper local markets to world-leading companies, Emerging markets presents a stronger opportunity than geopolitical volatility suggests.
An important decision in special needs planning isn’t necessarily one that can be found in textbooks, determined by a formula in a spreadsheet, or governed by laws or regulations. It’s the choice of the people who will surround your loved one when you can no longer.
Chuck Carnevale explains the Rule of 72 and shows how earnings growth can compound over time. Using FAST Graphs and real stock examples, he explores how growth and valuation affect long-term returns.
Midterm elections are increasingly taking over the headlines, and that includes coverage of markets. While inflation, rates, and geopolitics probably have more outright impact on portfolios, investors and market watchers still look to midterm elections as a major event.
Franklin Equity’s Grant Bowers discusses why a higher cost of capital does not change the capital expenditure outlook.
The sell-off in U.S. Treasury (UST) yields has continued pretty much in an unabated fashion In fact, multi-year high watermarks are being achieved throughout the fixed coupon maturity curve. The most widely followed development was the UST 10-year yield rising to its highest level since 2007.
Markets await a possible Fed rate hike as Congress weighs Trump's dividend proposal, a limited fall session, and a Senate vote on crypto regulation.
The takeaway from Q3 isn't that the IPO recovery is dead, it's that it has entered a far more tactical phase. The appetite to register is undeniably present, but the window to price comfortably has narrowed. For big names like OpenAI and Oura, taking extra time to clear safety, governance, or market noise is a luxury of strength, not desperation.
You can’t spot it on the field or in the stadium. You can’t correct it in training. Or cure it with a dose from the team doctor. But it’s a malady an overwhelming number of professional athletes will face.
Munis can fund local power, grid, water and wastewater infrastructure; most AI campus capital will be financed in non-municipal markets.
Explore how muni bond ETFs and targeted state funds can provide tax-efficient yields and strategic flexibility heading into 2027.
All eyes are on the macro economy. A significant market correction in late July triggered the abrupt collapse of Situational Awareness, L.P., a $45 billion, highly leveraged, AI-focused hedge fund. The collapse forced selling of many technology hardware stocks that were winners in the first half of 2026.
Treasuries might look cheap against stocks, GDP and the global cycle, but on their own historical terms they have more to fall before they become oversold and ready for a durable bounce.
The Securities and Exchange Commission is proposing a series of moves to help expand retail investor access to private markets, so more individuals can access private equity, early-stage startups and other assets.
Assessing the wall of worry. Here, we assess the market's growing wall of worry, explain why these worries warrant attention, and justify our continued constructive intermediate-to-long-term stock market outlook.
Economic data from last week continued to paint a picture of a robust U.S. economy with an accelerating pace of growth. After a strong durable goods report showed business fixed investment continuing to rise on the back of ongoing AI data center buildouts, the Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now estimate for third-quarter real economic growth remained at an elevated 5 percent.
Some employer retirement plans allow after-tax contributions that can be converted to Roth assets. Learn how a mega backdoor Roth strategy works and key considerations for retirement planning.
From social media and AI tools to financial professionals and workplace resources, defined contribution (DC) plan participants are drawing retirement insights from an expanding portfolio of sources, according to our latest survey. But more content doesn’t necessarily mean better outcomes. We think plan sponsors are well positioned to help participants cut through the noise.
Globalization is being reorganized around security and resilience, creating uneven risks and opportunities across markets.
Higher-for-longer interest rates are forcing buyout firms to face facts. Struggling since 2023 to sell companies purchased in the long decade of ultra-cheap debt before the Covid pandemic, they’ve tried to placate investors with clever financial engineering to help keep some money turning over.
Across the world, nations are dealing with rising costs from energy and debt service. These costs are compounding as time goes on.
The bond market has become the central story for investors. The remarkable development over the past several weeks is not rising inflation expectations but rising real interest rates. Real rates have increased roughly 40 basis points in just three weeks, one of the sharpest moves I can remember over such a short period. Meanwhile, longer-term inflation expectations have actually edged slightly lower.
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.23% in August and was up 4.25% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was down 0.08% month-over-month and up 0.80% year-over-year.
With more than 100,000 advisors planning to retire in the next 10 years and an overwhelming majority of independent RIAs facing major challenges in succession planning, making your firm as attractive as possible, whether you’re looking to acquire or to be acquired, is quickly becoming much more than a good idea; it may soon be a survival tactic.
Banks in the US have plenty to celebrate these days, from record profits and higher stock prices to a strong economy and easier regulation. One thing they don’t need is an added discount on their deposit insurance — a crucial buffer that should be reinforced when times are good.
Has the stock market bubble quietly burst already? Even though the S&P 500 Index has mostly treaded water for the past four months, Wall Street analysts have continued to boost their earnings estimates.
Bond markets continue to adjust to a more hawkish policy environment following the Federal Reserve’s recent 25-basis-point rate hike.
There is more than one reason the 10-year Treasury yield is 5.23% today. Most importantly, the Fed has stopped anchoring interest rates at artificially low levels. Fear of inflation is likely another. However, both of those are related to the massive government debt the US has created.
A recent VettaFi webcast explored advice on navigating retirees' behavioral tendencies in decumulating assets in retirement.
When during the calendar year should retirees take their required minimum distributions (RMDs)? Take the RMDs early and eliminate the chore? Wait until December to maximize tax-deferred compounding? Or spread the distributions throughout the year? Advisors often start with too narrow a view of what clients are trying to optimize.
Only 30% of Americans believe they’ll be able to retire comfortably — an amount retirement plan participants now estimate is $1.2 million, a recent survey by Schroders found. 33% of plan participants said that their credit card debt was higher than their retirement savings.
As bond yields have risen, mortgage rates are again facing upward pressure, extending the U.S. housing market's post-pandemic affordability challenges. Beyond mortgage rates, trends in wage growth, taxes, and insurance costs also continue to shape the affordability outlook.
Chris Galipeau discusses high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
Understanding why investor optimism wins over a full market cycle is one of the most underrated edges an investor can own, and it has almost nothing to do with waving pom-poms.
Retirement Income
SKOR Hits $1 Billion AUM Milestone Amid Corporate Bond Yield Surge
The Northern ETF SKOR crossed the $1 billion AUM threshold following $247 million in recent inflows amid surging corporate bond yields.
Stop Ranking Clients by Assets Alone
Assets under management tell you what a client is worth today. Upward mobility and enjoyment tell you what the relationship is worth. Build your practice around the second number, and the first one tends to follow.
S&P 500 Futures Little Changed as Banks Report, Chipmakers Fall
US equity futures held firm Tuesday despite a deepening selloff in chipmakers, as traders sorted through a slew of bank results from JPMorgan Chase & Co., Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and other lenders in the start to third-quarter corporate earnings season.
Forget the Adage About Owning More Bonds as You Age
You’ve surely heard the standard advice that people should own more bonds than stocks as they age because stocks are riskier and older investors have less time to recover losses. I’ve always thought it was a half-baked idea, and rising interest rates show how costly it can be.
Bonds At 5%: Is The 10-Year Treasury Finally A Buy?
With the 10-year Treasury yield at its highest level since 2002, buying bonds at 5% is the first real alternative that stock investors have had in nearly two decades.
Investors Need Convincing Despite Cooling Jobs and Strong AI Earnings
Our Senior Portfolio Manager and Head of Global Sustainable Investing, Kris Nelson, sees markets balancing several competing forces this week, from renewed oil-price volatility to softer labor data and increasingly demanding expectations around AI earnings.
The Bar Is High—Can Earnings Clear It Again?
Taylor Topousis and Christian Galipeau discuss high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
Oil Tanker Rates Top $1 Million a Day as Shipping Profits Soar
Earlier last week, a supertanker loading crude in the Gulf of Oman was fixed at $1.01 million a day for a voyage to Asia, with another deal reportedly agreed at $1.16 million.
Rising Real Rates Signal Stronger Growth: Upgrading Equity View
The market continues to hold near all-time highs despite pressure from higher bond yields. This week brought relatively little economic data, but the important takeaway is that the underlying economy still looks strong. High-frequency indicators, jobless claims and consumer spending data continue to point to solid growth, while this week’s CPI, PPI and retail sales reports will provide the next important test for both the economy and the Federal Reserve.
Tokenization Gains Ground & ETFs Have Room to Grow
Tokenization has taken hold in money market funds, leaving ETFs room to grow, while Cerulli eyes private markets as the long-term prize.
The Advisor's Real Benchmark
What matters most now is not merely whether I can improve a client's financial position. It is how I help advance the financial and personal direction of that client's life in a meaningful way.
Gambling Epidemic: Gen Z Bets Against Their Future
By generation, Gen Z and Millennials now make up 88% of online betting activity. Gen X trails at 9%. Boomers barely register. As recently as this spring, Millennials were the bigger group. Then Gen Z passed them, and Bank of America called it a “turning point.”
Worried Consumers Keep Spending: Here's Why
For nearly four years, economists have been predicting that consumers would fail to sustain the economy. Yet despite many reasons for consumers to retrench, real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) grew 2.6% through September. The bottom line: Consumers keep worrying but keep spending.
Fed Rate Hikes: Stocks, Bonds & the Economy
The Fed's recent rate increase may not develop into a hiking cycle as extensive as the one that began in 2022 because much of today's inflation pressure comes from supply constraints rather than broad economic overheating, where demand exceeds the economy's productive capacity.
The Biggest Problems We Face Today
I write my letter as if I’m writing to friends, which I consider you to be. How many times do you get together with friends and you focus on just one topic? The usual friendly dinner conversation covers lots of topics. This week is a multiple topic letter, but with so much happening, how could it not be?
Agency MBS Offer a Compelling Current Opportunity for Reserve Managers
Western Asset’s Ion Dan explains why he thinks the fundamental case for agency mortgage-backed securities has strengthened.
Bond Market Blues—Real or Inflationary?
US Treasury yields have moved sharply higher, with the 10-year yield rising roughly 45 basis points over the past month to about 5.25%. That has understandably revived concerns about what higher bond yields could mean for equities.
Have Stocks Reached a Permanently High Plateau?
Is it time to bail out of stocks — or to stay the course? Who knows? In the meantime, we can array recent stock returns against history to put 2026 into context and allow readers to judge for themselves.
Understanding the 10-Year Treasury: A Multifactor Framework
Headlines are popping up left and right about how high the 10-year Treasury yield has risen. While investors make decisions about what is the “right” longer-term cost of government debt, many journalists focus on single-factor ways of viewing it.
Strategies for a More Tax-Smart Portfolio
Investment performance is often measured by what a portfolio earns. But for investors with substantial assets across taxable, tax-deferred, and tax-free accounts, what they keep after taxes can be just as important.
Love at First Hike? It Could Be
ClearBridge Investments: With the economy still resilient, a gradual Federal Reserve hiking cycle could help broaden market leadership beyond the Magnificent Seven.
AI Is Eating Software and Investors Have Noticed
The economist Robert Solow’s famous 1987 adage about the computer age — it can be seen everywhere except the productivity statistics — also applies to generative artificial intelligence.
Economic/Market Commentary: 6 Charts We’re Watching in Q4 2026
Stocks chopped this summer as high hopes for AI product and infrastructure development were offset by rising inflation and an increasingly hawkish Federal Reserve.
AI is Taking Over the Value Style Too
For decades, investors have used growth and value allocations as a foundational block of equity portfolio construction. The distinction has been intuitive and practical. Investors expected growth to provide exposure to faster-growing companies, often with higher valuation multiples and greater sensitivity to earnings expectations.
Muhlenkamp Quarterly Market Commentary – October 2026
The U.S. economy remained resilient in Q3, with 2.2% real GDP growth, 4.1% unemployment, and inflation easing to 3.4%. Rising interest rates reflect persistent inflation concerns. The AI boom continues despite growing skepticism, while tariff uncertainty persists. The Iran war remains unresolved, supporting higher oil-price risks. Muhlenkamp added oil, software, and animal-health investments at attractive valuations.
Barometer: Stocks to Power on Despite Lofty Valuations
After a nine-month rally in equity markets and a recent spike in bond yields, some investors may see fit to reduce their exposure to stocks. On the surface at least, bonds appear to offer better value than equities. The gap between stocks' earnings yields, the inverse of the price-to-earnings ratio, and bond yields is narrower than it has been in two decades.
Inside Job(s): AI's Labor Market Impact
AI's labor-market impact remains limited but uneven, as productivity and profits outpace hiring and import-heavy investment dampens U.S. job growth.
Rising Interest Rates: What They Mean for Wealth Planning
Rising interest rates can affect more than investment portfolios. Explore how changing IRS interest rates may influence several estate, charitable and tax-planning strategies.
Growth Holds, Risks Widen
As globalization recedes, governments and businesses have stronger incentives to invest in building more resilient societies and supply chains. That imperative has coincided with the emergence of artificial intelligence, creating a powerful interaction between technological innovation and economic security.
Behind the Shift Within the FOMC
Market participants have been conditioned to expect clear Forward Guidance from Fed Chairs and Ben Bernanke, Janet Yellen, and Jay Powell provided it continuously, especially after the Financial Crisis. Chairman Warsh has made it clear that Forward Guidance will be less under his leadership, but he has offered a very important qualifier that many have yet to grasp.
Markets Navigate Uncertainty as Inflation and Rates Remain in Focus
Inflation progress remains uneven: The latest Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index showed some improvement after revisions, but several measures suggest price pressures remain sticky and above the Federal Reserve’s target
An Oil Shock (Mostly) Like No Other
Seven months into the U.S.–Iran conflict, few historical analogues have held. The trajectory of oil prices has been consistent with previous geopolitical shocks, but the market response elsewhere has looked strikingly different. U.S. Treasury yields have moved notably higher, for example, while credit spreads have remained remarkably resilient.
Market Opportunities and Risks That Could Shape the Months Ahead
This year has marked another remarkable chapter for the global economy and financial markets. Investors have navigated no shortage of challenges, from geopolitical conflicts and trade tensions to elevated energy prices and shifting interest rate expectations. Yet despite these headwinds, the economy continues to expand, corporate earnings remain resilient and markets have steadily climbed the proverbial wall of worry.
Softer Jobs Data Gives Fed Room to Pause
The latest employment report was softer on the headline numbers, but I thought the underlying details were quite constructive. Payroll growth came in below expectations and the prior two months were revised downward, yet labor-force participation increased and the workweek stabilized rather than declining as expected.
AI, Energy and Robotics
In this month’s issue, AI, energy and robotics are creating new opportunities in emerging markets, but selectivity remains key as policy, cost and execution risks evolve.
Top Articles for September on Advisor Perspectives Consider Fee Models, Cash Management
The most-read articles on Advisor Perspectives in September included a variety of topics, though the top story for the month focused on a key part of practice management — how you charge your clients.
What a Less Dominant America Might Mean for Your Money
Diversifying your portfolio across the globe will not completely insulate you from a bad year in equities, because global markets tend to rise and fall together. However, that diversification can help shield your retirement resources from the decline of any single country.
Sequence Of Return Risk: The Math That Breaks Retirements
We understand that you can’t forecast the sequence of returns, but we CAN build a plan that survives a bad one. As Howard Marks puts it, you can’t predict, but you can prepare. These are the rules of engagement once you’ve crossed from saving into spending.
More Advisors Choosing Annual Retainers as Industry Focuses on Planning
While the majority of advisors, 62%, still use an AUM-based fee model to charge clients, a growing number have said they now charge a retainer fee. In 2023, only 14% of advisors offering financial planning services said their compensation model was an annual retainer, while 38% said the same in the 2026 State of Financial Planning Fees study.
There's Good News About Incomes. No One Seems to Believe It
How’s the US economy doing in President Donald Trump’s second term? Going by the topline economic statistics, not too bad. Second-quarter gross domestic product was revised higher last week, to a 2.2% annualized rate from a previously reported 1.5%. At 4.2%, the jobless rate is consistent with an economy considered to be at full employment.
A Small, Temporary Win for the Doves, Us Included
Today’s employment report reinforced a trend that has been evident across several labor market indicators: conditions in the goods-producing sector continue to improve after several difficult years, while hiring across the much larger service sector continues to soften.
Will the Real Yield Please Stand Up?!
Our real gross domestic product (GDP) forecast for 2026 is 2.5% (based on our Global Investment Management Survey) versus the Federal Reserve’s (Fed's) forecast of 2.2% and the Wall Street consensus of around 2%.
How AI, the Midterms, and Consumer Shifts Shape the Outlook
Executives enter the earnings season with a bit of a swagger. They won't say it out loud, of course, but consider all the headwinds CEOs of companies big and small have faced in the last few years. First, it was imminent recession fears; then it was looming tariffs (followed by the shock of April 2025).
AI, Higher Rates Raise the Bar for Diversification
Global equities advanced in the third quarter as market returns broadened away from technology. But AI’s disruptive impact is spreading across sectors and industries—transforming the very nature of investment diversification.
4 Practical Uses of TIPS in the Portfolio
How much one needs for retirement is both a mathematical and emotional equation to solve. For both my clients and myself, enough is never enough because we fear a stock market plunge, inflation, or both (stagflation). But these four practical uses of TIPS provide near certainty of having enough to enjoy the rest of one’s life. Rarely do math and emotion each arrive at the same solution.
From TINA To TIGA: Diversification Pays Again
Today, TINA logic is less compelling. Risk-free five-year and longer Treasury notes and bonds yield over 5%, and investment-grade corporate bonds yield even more. At the same time, stock valuations sit near record levels, implying weak forward returns. The acronym that best describes today's market is TIGA (there is a good alternative).
When the Company Changes Before the Client
Financial planners are used to reviewing their executive clients’ financial plans when a major life event occurs, whether it is a promotion, a significant salary increase, retirement, or a liquidity event. But what happens when the client stays in the exact same seat while the organization around them changes fundamentally?
Wall Street Tries to Live With 5% Yields as Market Cracks Grow
Wall Street has spent weeks trying to make peace with the great bond selloff. Friday offered some short-lived relief — along with a warning about the damage from stubbornly high yields across investment strategies of all stripes.
The Bond Market’s Balancing Act Is Perfectly Normal
Remember when near-zero interest rates squeezed retirees on fixed incomes and left pensions with huge shortfalls? I suspect they’re happy to see US interest rates returning to normal.
Don’t Own Bonds and be Cautious With Stocks
Neither a borrower nor a lender be,” wrote William Shakespeare, who was one of history’s greatest authors but obviously ill-versed in economics. Without lending or borrowing, our modern economic society wouldn’t grow very much, AI or not.
Paying Software Prices for Refinery Economics
For a quarter of a century, the hyperscalers have been some of the most profitable and technologically innovative businesses ever created. The reason was clear: their marginal cost per additional customer was almost zero. Costs were fixed and scale was effectively unlimited, which meant margins widened as volume grew.
A Historic Opportunity in Municipals
Recent bond market repricing has pushed municipal yields to levels not seen in decades and improved the potential risk-reward profile for fixed income. Here, we examine why municipals stand out, how supportive credit fundamentals shape the opportunity and why investors may benefit from extending maturities to lock in attractive tax-exempt income.
Recalibrating Rates, Not Tightening Policy
The Fed’s latest 25 basis point hike might represent a recalibration rather than tightening. Instead of focusing on the next hike, investors should watch broader financial conditions and the long-term trajectory for interest rates.
What Is a 351 Exchange? How Section 351 Exchanges Work and Their Potential Benefits
Investors who have owned securities for many years can accumulate significant unrealized gains. Selling those investments to reposition a portfolio can trigger capital gains taxes.
Price Of Happiness: Missing The Things That Matter
Market participants have been conditioned to expect clear Forward Guidance from Fed Chairs. Chairman Warsh has made it clear that Forward Guidance will be less under his leadership, but he has offered a very important qualifier that many have yet to grasp.
Economic Desiderata
Today, we’re going to look at a lot of various data points and analysis, that when taken together give us a much clearer picture of the total world.
Why Waiting for Certainty Could Be Costly
Emerging markets have significantly evolved in recent years and offer a more compelling risk/reward setup than in the past. From deeper local markets to world-leading companies, Emerging markets presents a stronger opportunity than geopolitical volatility suggests.
How to Select Trustees, Guardians, and Care Team
An important decision in special needs planning isn’t necessarily one that can be found in textbooks, determined by a formula in a spreadsheet, or governed by laws or regulations. It’s the choice of the people who will surround your loved one when you can no longer.
How the Power of Compounding Shapes Stock Investing Returns
Chuck Carnevale explains the Rule of 72 and shows how earnings growth can compound over time. Using FAST Graphs and real stock examples, he explores how growth and valuation affect long-term returns.
What Midterm Elections Do – & Don’t – Mean for Bonds
Midterm elections are increasingly taking over the headlines, and that includes coverage of markets. While inflation, rates, and geopolitics probably have more outright impact on portfolios, investors and market watchers still look to midterm elections as a major event.
The Next Phase of AI is an Earnings Story
Franklin Equity’s Grant Bowers discusses why a higher cost of capital does not change the capital expenditure outlook.
Higher Bond Yields Go Global
The sell-off in U.S. Treasury (UST) yields has continued pretty much in an unabated fashion In fact, multi-year high watermarks are being achieved throughout the fixed coupon maturity curve. The most widely followed development was the UST 10-year yield rising to its highest level since 2007.
Washington: What to Watch Now
Markets await a possible Fed rate hike as Congress weighs Trump's dividend proposal, a limited fall session, and a Senate vote on crypto regulation.
Do Oura and OpenAI IPO Delays Foreshadow a Slowdown in Dealmaking for Q4?
The takeaway from Q3 isn't that the IPO recovery is dead, it's that it has entered a far more tactical phase. The appetite to register is undeniably present, but the window to price comfortably has narrowed. For big names like OpenAI and Oura, taking extra time to clear safety, governance, or market noise is a luxury of strength, not desperation.
New Money, New problems: Athletes and Sudden Wealth
You can’t spot it on the field or in the stadium. You can’t correct it in training. Or cure it with a dose from the team doctor. But it’s a malady an overwhelming number of professional athletes will face.
Municipal Bonds and AI Data Center Financing
Munis can fund local power, grid, water and wastewater infrastructure; most AI campus capital will be financed in non-municipal markets.
Looking Ahead at ETFs for the 2027 Muni Bond Outlook
Explore how muni bond ETFs and targeted state funds can provide tax-efficient yields and strategic flexibility heading into 2027.
The Macro / Micro Divide
All eyes are on the macro economy. A significant market correction in late July triggered the abrupt collapse of Situational Awareness, L.P., a $45 billion, highly leveraged, AI-focused hedge fund. The collapse forced selling of many technology hardware stocks that were winners in the first half of 2026.
Don’t Be Fooled. Treasuries Aren’t Cheap Yet
Treasuries might look cheap against stocks, GDP and the global cycle, but on their own historical terms they have more to fall before they become oversold and ready for a durable bounce.
Wall Street Regulator Moves to Expand Access to Private Funds
The Securities and Exchange Commission is proposing a series of moves to help expand retail investor access to private markets, so more individuals can access private equity, early-stage startups and other assets.
Stock Market’s Wall of Worry Gets Taller
Assessing the wall of worry. Here, we assess the market's growing wall of worry, explain why these worries warrant attention, and justify our continued constructive intermediate-to-long-term stock market outlook.
Strong U.S. Growth Meets Rising Rate Risks
Economic data from last week continued to paint a picture of a robust U.S. economy with an accelerating pace of growth. After a strong durable goods report showed business fixed investment continuing to rise on the back of ongoing AI data center buildouts, the Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now estimate for third-quarter real economic growth remained at an elevated 5 percent.
Supercharge Your Roth Savings With After-Tax Contributions
Some employer retirement plans allow after-tax contributions that can be converted to Roth assets. Learn how a mega backdoor Roth strategy works and key considerations for retirement planning.
Nurture Over Noise: Helping DC Participants Navigate a Complex Information Age
From social media and AI tools to financial professionals and workplace resources, defined contribution (DC) plan participants are drawing retirement insights from an expanding portfolio of sources, according to our latest survey. But more content doesn’t necessarily mean better outcomes. We think plan sponsors are well positioned to help participants cut through the noise.
Investing Amid Geopolitical Fragmentation
Globalization is being reorganized around security and resilience, creating uneven risks and opportunities across markets.
The End of Private Equity’s Leveraged Buyout Era Is Nigh
Higher-for-longer interest rates are forcing buyout firms to face facts. Struggling since 2023 to sell companies purchased in the long decade of ultra-cheap debt before the Covid pandemic, they’ve tried to placate investors with clever financial engineering to help keep some money turning over.
Compounding Costs
Across the world, nations are dealing with rising costs from energy and debt service. These costs are compounding as time goes on.
Surging Real Yields Test a Resilient Market
The bond market has become the central story for investors. The remarkable development over the past several weeks is not rising inflation expectations but rising real interest rates. Real rates have increased roughly 40 basis points in just three weeks, one of the sharpest moves I can remember over such a short period. Meanwhile, longer-term inflation expectations have actually edged slightly lower.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Personal Income
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.23% in August and was up 4.25% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was down 0.08% month-over-month and up 0.80% year-over-year.
Defining the New “Platform Value”: Keeping Your RIA Attractive, Whether You’re Buying or Selling
With more than 100,000 advisors planning to retire in the next 10 years and an overwhelming majority of independent RIAs facing major challenges in succession planning, making your firm as attractive as possible, whether you’re looking to acquire or to be acquired, is quickly becoming much more than a good idea; it may soon be a survival tactic.
Americans Rely on Deposit Insurance. Now Is the Time to Fortify It
Banks in the US have plenty to celebrate these days, from record profits and higher stock prices to a strong economy and easier regulation. One thing they don’t need is an added discount on their deposit insurance — a crucial buffer that should be reinforced when times are good.
Stocks Are Suddenly Looking Cheap? It's Just a Mirage
Has the stock market bubble quietly burst already? Even though the S&P 500 Index has mostly treaded water for the past four months, Wall Street analysts have continued to boost their earnings estimates.
What the AI Investment Boom Means for Bonds
Bond markets continue to adjust to a more hawkish policy environment following the Federal Reserve’s recent 25-basis-point rate hike.
National Debt A Growing Threat
There is more than one reason the 10-year Treasury yield is 5.23% today. Most importantly, the Fed has stopped anchoring interest rates at artificially low levels. Fear of inflation is likely another. However, both of those are related to the massive government debt the US has created.
How to Prepare for Decumulation in Retirement
A recent VettaFi webcast explored advice on navigating retirees' behavioral tendencies in decumulating assets in retirement.
When Should Clients Take Their RMDs? We May Be Optimizing the Wrong Thing
When during the calendar year should retirees take their required minimum distributions (RMDs)? Take the RMDs early and eliminate the chore? Wait until December to maximize tax-deferred compounding? Or spread the distributions throughout the year? Advisors often start with too narrow a view of what clients are trying to optimize.
Retirees Need $1.2M, but Carry More Debt Than Savings
Only 30% of Americans believe they’ll be able to retire comfortably — an amount retirement plan participants now estimate is $1.2 million, a recent survey by Schroders found. 33% of plan participants said that their credit card debt was higher than their retirement savings.
The U.S. Housing Market Becomes a More Local Story
As bond yields have risen, mortgage rates are again facing upward pressure, extending the U.S. housing market's post-pandemic affordability challenges. Beyond mortgage rates, trends in wage growth, taxes, and insurance costs also continue to shape the affordability outlook.
House Call
Chris Galipeau discusses high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
Investor Optimism Wins As An Investment Strategy
Understanding why investor optimism wins over a full market cycle is one of the most underrated edges an investor can own, and it has almost nothing to do with waving pom-poms.