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Gold Holds Its Own Against These Media Darlings
A recent Bloomberg article points out that the gold rout has cost China and Russia $5.4 billion, an amount that would sound colossal were it not for the fact that U.S. media companies such as Disney and Viacom collectively lost over $60 billion for shareholders in as little as two days this week. Below are the weekly losses for just a handful of those companies. Compared to many other asset classes, gold has held up well, even after factoring in its price decline.
Global Growth Forecast - Q3 (Infographic)
by Rick Harrell of Loomis, Sayles & Co.,
Every quarter, we update our forecast map. What's different this time? We have shaved our US GDP forecast down to 2.3% from 2.9%, mostly on account of weaker exports, a strong dollar and the decline in oil prices. In emerging markets, we still believe Asia Pacific is currently a bright spot - but we expect China to slow further as easing measures fail to gain traction.
Reflections on the Iran Deal
Last month, the P5+1 and Iran concluded negotiations on a nuclear deal. In this report, we will offer some reflections on the agreement, including why it occurred, and the major reason why the U.S. negotiated this agreement and the underlying issues. As always, we will conclude with market ramifications.
More Evidence of China Slowing Permeating Asia – 7/31/2015
by Bryce Coward of GaveKal Capital,
In today’s edition we highlight just a few data points: the South Korea Business Survey Index making a new low, Japan consumption expenditure having a very weak month, and Japan CPI headed back toward zero. The slowing of the biggest economy in Asia is really having a noticeable impact on the region.
Is Now the Time to be Bearish on China?
by Andy Rothman of Matthews Asia,
One of the world’s largest hedge funds has turned bearish on China, arguing that the recent stock market correction means ‘‘there are now no safe places to invest’’ in that country. I disagree. I respect Bridgewater as an investment house and their views require serious attention. But I think it worthwhile to explain some areas where my views differ.
Gold on Sale, Says the Rational Investor
The leveraged gold futures derivatives market is knocking down the precious metal, yet in massive contrast, this drop has ignited a shopping frenzy according to gold coin dealers. I spoke with several friends and industry experts this week who confirmed the record sales numbers for the month. In fact, American Gold Eagle sales reached 161,500 ounces in July, the highest monthly figure since April 2013. What gives?
A Midyear Look at Global Real Estate
There are many drivers of recent short-term price changes for publicly traded real estate companies in the current market environment. These include changes in the market’s outlook for economic growth, for interest rate movements, for central bank actions and even the issues surrounding Greece and Ukraine.
Chugging Along
Sitting down to write this quarter’s Outlook we feel a bit sheepish. Despite all the headlines and drama around the world (e.g., Greece, Mid-East turmoil, China stock market bubble), not much has changed in our outlook for the U.S. economy or the U.S. financial markets. The U.S. economy appears to have rebounded in the second quarter from the first quarter swoon.
International Economic Week in Review: IMF Lowers Growth Projections, Edition
by Hale Stewart,
At the macro level, the IMF lowered their global growth outlook. The first quarter slowdown in the developed world (largely the US but to a lesser extent Canada) led to decreased 2H15 projections, while the commodity slowdown will negatively impact the developing world. As further evidence of this, note that Latin American currencies are broadly selling off. Low inflation gives central banks plenty of policy room. The wild cards continue to be the cumulative impact of the Chinese slowdown along with certain geopolitical factors such as the Middle East turmoil and Greek situation.
Asia Insight: Online to Offline—The Great Technology Migration
by Michael Oh of Matthews Asia,
Asia has demonstrated an uncanny ability to leapfrog certain technological developments, making much quicker transitions to new technologies than Western countries: jumping from fixed line to wireless communications and moving away from desktop devices to mobile devices. Now, the latest interesting instance of technology leapfrogging that is happening in Asia is dubbed “Online-to-Offline,” commerce, or O2—an e-commerce model that combines offline opportunities with online platforms. Asia Insight explores.
Mid-Year Outlook: Global Economy Likely to Withstand China, Greece
The global markets and economy should be able to move higher for the remainder of the year, with accommodative monetary policy and well-contained inflation providing tailwinds. The U.S. looks set to extend its not-too-hot, not-too-cold recovery, while Japan is benefiting from stimulus and pro-market reforms. Although economic conditions in Europe remain fragile and uneven, growth looks to be accelerating overall, and we believe the European Union has the tools to prevent a broader Europe contagion should the Greek bailout resolution fall apart.
The BOJ’s Policy: What’s Next, More Easing? Or Something Else?
by Tomoya Masanao of PIMCO,
Investors are now debating what the next step will be for the Bank of Japan. It is a dramatic turn, isn’t it? Earlier this year, the consensus view was that the BOJ would move forward with additional easing – the question was ‘when’, not ‘if’.
Currencies Depend on Faith, Gold Doesn’t
by Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital,
In his July 17th Blog, Let's Get Real About Gold, author and Wall Street Journal columnist Jason Zweig likened investor interest in gold with the "Pet Rock" craze of the 1970's, when consumers became convinced that a rock in a box would provide continuous companionship, elevate their social standing, and give them something hip to talk about at parties. Zweig asserts that investor faith in gold, which he argues is just another inert mineral with good marketing, is similarly irrational, and has kept people from putting money in the much more lucrative stock market.
Secular Outlook: Implications for Asia-Pacific Investors?
by Eric Mogelof, Alan Isenberg of PIMCO,
We hope you have had the opportunity to review the summary from our secular forum in May: “The New Neutral Revisited,” written by PIMCO’s Group CIO Dan Ivascyn, Global Fixed Income CIO Andrew Balls an?d Global Strategic Advisor Rich Clarida. In this analysis, the authors identify the six key themes that emerged from our discussion, as well as six risks.
Imperial Germany
Last week, we analyzed the Greek/Eurozone negotiations using game theory as an explanatory tool. In this report, we will review the basic geopolitics of Europe, the political response and the evolution of the Eurozone. Using this background, we will examine Germany’s actions in the most recent Greek crisis. As always, we will conclude with market ramifications.
More Evidence of China Slowing Permeating Asia – 7/16/2015
by Bryce Coward of GaveKal Capital,
Yesterday saw a few more weaker data points out of Australia and South Korea that are worthy of mention. Namely, Australian consumer confidence dropped again to around the lowest it’s been since 2009 and South Korea unemployment remained at its cycle highs. No matter what the top line China GDP number was, there is no doubt that China is on a structurally slower growth trajectory and this is most definitely affecting its closest neighbors.
Crude Oil Is the Best-Performing Commodity of 2015 So Far
The widest expansion this year was made by none other than crude oil, the worst-performing commodity of 2014. As of June 30, oil posted gains of over 11 percent, rising to $59.47 per barrel. After falling more than 50 percent since last summer, though, it had little else to go but up. That oil claimed the top spot just highlights the reality that commodities are in a depressed state right now.
Northern Trust Perspective
by Jim McDonald of Northern Trust,
Last month we said that the odds favored some sort of “kick the can down the road” agreement between Greece and its creditors, and it looks like that may be coming to pass. While there’s still much work to be done, the tone of the current agreement seems focused on avoiding a euro exit and debt write-downs, while ignoring growth-oriented policies. With the hard decisions yet again put off for another day, this should be euro-weakening, all else equal.
China's Rebalancing Continues
by Andy Rothman of Matthews Asia,
The rebalancing of China’s economy continued in the second quarter of this year, as services and consumer spending drove more growth than industry and construction. The inevitable deceleration of most year-on-year (YoY) growth rates also continued, but a booming stock market provided a temporary lift to headline GDP growth.
Correlation Among Stocks, Especially In Europe, Have Shot Higher
by Eric Bush of GaveKal Capital,
Over the past several weeks, correlations among stocks have been increasing which makes it increasingly difficult for stock pickers to outperform. The most dramatic example of this is happening in Europe.
An Update on China from Charlie Awdry
Charlie Awdry, Investment Manager in Henderson’s Asia ex Japan equities team, discusses the recent volatility we are seeing in Chinese equity markets. With shares being suspended from trading and further government action expected, this downturn in Chinese equities is causing nervousness among investors in the retail investor dominated Chinese markets.
Perspectives on China
by Nick Niziolek of Calamos Investments,
There are considerable opportunities in China for disciplined, fundamentally driven investors. China’s medium- and longer-term secular tailwinds remain intact. Our team continues to encourage investors to look past the short-term noise and remain focused on the longer-term potential. The economic transition that China is attempting is incredibly challenging. Right now, Chinese regulators have taken a kitchen-sink approach. While it hasn’t achieved the desired effect, it affirms the depth of China’s commitment to stabilize its markets.
Global Investors: You Should Be Paying Attention to this Economic Indicator
In addition to our own macro models, BCA Research , a highly respected independent research company, pointed out that PMIs in developing economies have plunged to new lows. The International Monetary Fund also revised downward its global growth forecast for 2015. On this account, bad news is good news, as central bankers are scrambling to stimulate economic growth.
China Market Update
by Andy Rothman of Matthews Asia,
China’s equity markets have steadily declined for weeks, raising a torrent of questions and concerns. Given that China accounts for more global growth than the U.S., Europe and Japan combined, this week Andy Rothman, Investment Strategist at Matthews Asia, answers some of your most pressing questions.
China Market Update
by Andy Rothman of Matthews Asia,
China’s equity markets have been in steady decline for several weeks, raising a lot of questions about the potential impact on the world’s second-largest economy. Given that China accounts for more global growth than the U.S., Europe and Japan combined, this is an important topic for investors.
More Evidence of China Slowing Permeating Asia
by Bryce Coward of GaveKal Capital,
Yesterday and today were host to a few more macro data points all signaling basically the same thing – a synchronized slowdown in Asia which appears to be driven by China. In the five charts below we show that Chinese CPI remains anemic while PPI just made a new cycle low, Australian unemployment ticked up, Japanese bank loans appear to be topping/rolling over, the Japanese economy watchers survey is rolling over, and Japanese machinery orders excluding ships keeps weakening.
While Attention Has Been On China, EM Latin America Keeps Taking It On The Chin
by Eric Bush of GaveKal Capital,
EM Latin America stocks are by far the worst performing stocks in the world this year. So even though all eyes are on China at the moment, as Bryce recently pointed out, the Chinese stock market doesn’t matter much for non-Chinese investors.
Asia Better Positioned to Handle a Hike
It’s no surprise investors are concerned about whether a Fed rate hike will cause a replay of 2013’s taper tantrum meltdown in Asia.
In our view, Asian markets are better positioned today to withstand short-term deterioration in global sentiment when the Fed decides to hike rates.
A First-Half Letter to Clients: Robert Shiller on the Valuation Quandary
by Dan Richards,
Since 2008, I have posted a template for a client letter each quarter as a starting point for advisors who want to send clients an overview of the period that just ended and some thoughts looking forward. This quarter’s letter addresses one of today’s most taxing questions for advisors and investors alike: How to deal with the quandary presented by today’s valuation levels on U.S. stocks.
Exporting the “Bacon Genie” and Other Reasons to Be Bullish
From “Bacon Genies” to “Snuggies,” there’s little doubting Americans have a thirst for consumer goods, even those that don’t always appear to serve much practical purpose. Brooks Ritchey, Senior Managing Director at K2 Advisors®, Franklin Templeton Solutions®, explores how an evolving consumer culture is spreading throughout the globe, and how he and his team are positioning their portfolios with these types of macro considerations in mind.
Home of the Free, Land of the Entrepreneur
Where else but in America can a startup such as Uber be valued at $50 billion, higher than 80 percent of the companies in the S&P 500 Index, only six years after its founding? Where else but in America can someone reach billionaire status by inventing a new type of hosiery, as Sara Blakely did with Spanx? Before her now-ubiquitous undergarments were worn by women—and now men—all over the globe, Blakely was so broke that she had to write her own patent without the help of an attorney.
The 2015 Mid-Year Geopolitical Outlook
As is our custom, at mid-year, we update our geopolitical outlook for the rest of the year. This report is less a series of predictions as it is a list of potential geopolitical issues that we believe will dominate the international situation into year’s end. It is not designed to be exhaustive; instead, it focuses on the “big picture” conditions that we believe will affect policy and markets going forward. They are listed in order of importance.
The Smartest Man is Wild about Innovation
by Byron Wien of Blackstone,
For the past fifteen years I have written annually about a person I have come to call “The Smartest Man in Europe.” For new readers, he is a finance person in his 80’s who has built his reputation by identifying important trend changes early and putting serious money behind his conclusions. Descended from a mercantile family that operated canteens selling food and weather protection along the Silk Route, he was educated in Europe, trained in New York and returned home to take advantage of the wealth-creating opportunities resulting from the post-war recovery.
$8 Trillion Alternative Energy Boom Is a Win for Copper
As the world’s population continues to grow, and as more people in developing and emerging countries gain access to electricity, the role alternative energy sources such as wind, solar and geothermal play should skyrocket. Between now and 2040, a massive $8 trillion will be spent globally on renewables, about two thirds of all energy spending, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Solar power alone is expected to draw $3.7 trillion.
India's Structural Challenges
by Sudarshan Murthy of Matthews Asia,
India is in need of sweeping reforms in order to realize the full power of its entrepreneurial talent and to ensure social improvements for its poor and middle class. Despite some encouraging efforts, the Modi government may need significant time to carry out such reforms, as its many public institutions are still a far cry from being considered inclusive—meaning they lack such attributes as well-defined property ownership rights, flexible labor policies and all-encompassing political representation.
Handicapping Bubbles and Shocks
Kristina Hooper, US Investment Strategist for Allianz Global Investors, explains the results of the 2015 Allianz Global Investors RiskMonitor Survey, a global study of prevailing views on portfolio construction, asset allocation and risk among a cross-section of institutional investors.
Cyber Security and Terrorism: Case Studies
This week we will look at two case studies of cyber attacks aimed at sovereign nations, the Estonian cyber attacks in 2007 that spanned three weeks and the multi-faceted attacks in Georgia in 2008. We will then look at the current state of international cyber attack research, readiness and cooperation. We have had the pleasure of talking to the NATO Cooperative Cyber Defence Center of Excellence about their work and will communicate their vision and challenges.
Global Review and Equity Commentary: May 2015
by Team of Thomas White International,
The decline in U.S. economic activity during the first quarter was more than earlier estimates, and appears to have weakened business sentiment in other parts of the world. Most of the fall in U.S. aggregate output was due to temporary factors such as adverse weather and port disruptions that led to delayed export shipments. The stronger dollar also reduced the earnings growth of large U.S. corporations with a global footprint.
A Chinese Swap Meet
by Andy Rothman of Matthews Asia,
The new local bond swap program of China’s Communist Party is its latest effort to manage debt. It aims both to make the amount and structure of local government debt more transparent, and to reduce the financing burden of local government debt. Could this be considered a version of quantitative easing or a bailout? Could it lead to local government defaults?
Results 3,201–3,250
of 4,282 found.
