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On My Radar: Equity Market Valuations & Probable Forward Returns

by Steve Blumenthal of CMG Capital Management Group, 10/10/16

Today, let’s take a look at the most recent market valuations. Hint and not a surprise: both stocks and bonds remain expensively priced. Value? Not today. Especially in the bond market.

How to Deepen Relationships with Centers of Influence

by Teresa Riccobuono, 10/10/16

Building a reliable network of COIs is one of the surest ways to engage with new prospects and grow your practice. Here’s a step-by-stop process to expand your list of COIs – including some who you probably didn’t think were potential referral sources.

Federal Repression System

by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics, 10/9/16

In today’s letter we are going to look at the FOMC’s decision-making process for monetary policy and survey the unpalatable future that our leaders are cooking up for us. But we won’t be living in the fantasy world they have created for themselves; we are going to have to live in the real world instead, where investment portfolios make a difference to our lifestyle and retirement, not only for ourselves but for our families and clients.

Municipal Impact: Unpacking the Candidates’ Tax Plans

by Daryl Clements of AllianceBernstein, 10/5/16

Trump? Clinton? We won’t call it. But we do have thoughts on the effect of the candidates’ proposals on the tax-exempt municipal bond market.

Overcoming the Unique Retirement Challenges Facing Millennials

by Larry Klein, 9/23/16

Your clients have likely referred their Millennial children or grandchildren to you for help with financial planning. It’s a tall order because of the unique financial challenges they face. Here’s some practical advice to overcome those hurdles.

Snapshot View: Fed Remains on Hold

by Michael Hasenstab of Franklin Templeton Investments, 9/22/16

If the United States is actually experiencing a 'new normal' where growth remains lower long term, then the Fed risks fueling real or asset-price inflation by being too lax with monetary policy going forward.

Four Elements of a Bond Market Bubble

by Jim Cielinski of Columbia Threadneedle Investments, 9/20/16

The developed world’s government bond markets are showing characteristics of a bubble. Timing the end of this rally won’t be easy — but for those watching closely, hints are emerging.

War on Cash Turns to $20, $50, and $100 Bills

by Clint Siegner of Money Metals Exchange, 9/20/16

Harvard professor and economist Ken Rogoff is once again leading the chorus of high-level academics and officials who declare cash is only for criminals.

The War on Cash Is Still Good for Gold

by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors, 9/17/16

With the five-year Treasury yielding 1.19 percent, government bond investors are now receiving a negative real rate of return (because 2.3 minus 1.19 comes out to negative 1.11 percent). This is highly constructive for the price of gold. As I’ve discussed many times before, the yellow metal has benefited when real rates have fallen below zero. This was the case in September 2011 when gold hit its all-time high of $1,900 per ounce. And last year around this time, the opposite was true—positive real rates were a drag on gold.

Equity Markets Continue Their Streak Even as Fed Hints at 2016 Hike

by Joe Becker, Adam Schenck, Jeff Greco of Milliman FRM, 9/16/16

The S&P 1500 notched its seventh consecutive calendar month of positive returns amidst exceptionally low volatility.

Study Finds Millennials Overconfident About Investment Knowledge

by Javier Simon of PLANADVISER, 9/15/16

Despite being overly confident about their investment knowledge, 94% of Millennials expressed a desire to learn more about investments, according to a new study.

Apple Tax Grab by EU Invades IRS Airspace

by John Browne of Euro Pacific Capital, 9/15/16

On August 30th, the European Union (EU) Commission ordered the Irish government to reclaim some $14.6 billion of so-called back taxes plus interest from Apple Inc. The order challenged sovereign tax authority within the EU and well-established international tax rules.

Negative Rates Nail Savers

by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics, 9/14/16

The economy has been rigged through a process that may have seemed innocent enough at any given point but that quickly put us on a slippery slope as ideological forces captured the ramparts of academic economic science. A brief history will bring us up to date.

Bo Knows Good Companies are Rare

by Tony Scherrer of Smead Capital Management, 9/14/16

Vincent Edward “Bo” Jackson was an incredible athlete of the rarest kind. In 1986, he was picked 1st overall in the National Football League (NFL) Draft and selected in the 4th round of the Major League Baseball (MLB) Draft.

How to Overcome the Fear of Public Speaking

by Beverly Flaxington, 9/13/16

I am afraid of public speaking – not just speaking to a group of thousands but also standing up in front of a conference room and presenting my ideas. Is there a cure for this?

Central Banks’ Endgame Not Good for Markets

by Brian Singer of William Blair, 9/12/16

The perception of the market has been that central banks have had the market’s back by implementing easy monetary policies since the financial crisis. But we’ve seen that these kinds of central bank actions have historically ended poorly for the market.

Weighing the Week Ahead: Should We Fear the Fed?

by Jeff Miller of NewArc Investments, Inc., 9/12/16

The calendar has little important data. Friday’s sharp selling was widely attributed to the fear of a Fed rate hike in September. Is it time? Should we fear the Fed?

Look to Chindia for Gold’s Love Trade

by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors, 9/12/16

A couple of weeks ago, I shared with you what I brought home from my trip to Toronto, Vancouver and New York City, where I had met with gold fund analysts.

Fiction, Fairy Tales, and Fiat

by Guy Christopher of Money Metals Exchange, 9/9/16

Do young Americans today know anything about economics? No, they don't, according to a study during the 2016 presidential primary season, which says lots of other Americans don't either.

Failure of Inflation Targeting?!

by Axel Merk of Merk Investments, 9/8/16

It ain't working. Eight years after the outbreak of the financial crisis, central bank chiefs suggest they have saved the world, but have they?

On My Radar: Why? Because We Need the Eggs

by Steve Blumenthal of CMG Capital Management Group, 9/7/16

Woody Allen closes “Annie Hall” with a joke: This guy goes to a psychiatrist and says, ‘Doc, my brother’s crazy; he thinks he’s a chicken.’ And the doctor says, ‘Well, why don’t you turn him in?’ The guy says, ‘I would, but I need the eggs.’

A Value Fund with an Outstanding 10-Year Track Record

by Robert Huebscher, 9/6/16

Over the last 10 years, the Intrepid Capital Fund (ICMBX) has returned 7.59%, which is 172 basis points ahead of its benchmark and 221 basis points ahead of its Morningstar peer-group average, placing it in the top 3rd percentile of that peer group. It has also outperformed the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 over that time period. I spoke to Mark Travis, its manager, on August 30.

Monetary Mountain Madness

by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics, 9/4/16

Mauldin describes his profound sense of sadness over our global economic leadership’s obvious lack of understanding of the real world.

Emerging Markets in Improved Position

by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 9/3/16

With the Fed getting closer to another interest rate increase, questions are being asked about the resilience of Emerging Markets, given the experience of three years ago.

Canadian “Bank-in” for Delicious Yield and Great Value

by Chuck Carnevale of F.A.S.T. Graphs, 9/2/16

It is no secret that US blue-chip dividend paying stocks are trading at extremely high valuations relative to historical norms. Interest rates remain at all-time lows, and investors hungry for yield have turned to blue-chip dividend growth stocks in order to satisfy their appetites.

Six Months Later: The Pre-IPO Investment Opportunity in an Up Market

by Kaylock Yam of EquityZen, 9/2/16

You wouldn't have predicted this six months ago.

Meet Our Team: Greg Konieczny

by Mark Mobius of Franklin Templeton Investments, 9/1/16

Earlier this summer I met with Greg Konieczny, Templeton Emerging Markets Group’s chief executive officer Romania, and we had some great discussions about issues affecting Eastern European emerging markets and the potential we see in select countries and sectors.

On My Radar: The Little Engine That Could

by Steve Blumenthal of CMG Capital Management Group, 8/29/16

In the tale, a long train must be pulled over a high mountain. Larger engines, asked to pull the train, for various reasons refused. A request is sent to a small engine, who agrees to try. The engine succeeds in pulling the train over the mountain while repeating its motto: "I think I can."

Looking Past the Olympic Carnival

by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore, Ankit Mital of Northern Trust, 8/28/16

Growing substantially from the first modern Olympics in 1896, which included just 34 events contested by 241 athletes from 14 countries, this year included 306 events and 11,303 competitors from 207 countries.

A New Policy Orthodoxy Is Emerging

by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Investments, 8/25/16

There is a new debate emerging among policymakers in advanced economies. Two Federal Reserve Bank chief executives have taken the position that the natural rate of interest in the United States is much lower than previously assumed.

Weighing the Week Ahead: Showdown at Jackson Hole?

by Jeff Miller of NewArc Investments, Inc., 8/22/16

This week’s calendar features yet another light week for data, a lot of politics, and slow summer trading. Something has to fill all of that air time! This week the punditry gets their favorite topic – the Fed. Chair Yellen’s speech on Friday may set the tone for post-election monetary policy.

Asia-Pacific: Investment Implications of Our 2016 Secular Outlook

by Eric Mogelof, Alan Isenberg of PIMCO, 8/22/16

PIMCO’s 2016 Secular Outlook highlights a world that, over the next three to five years, will be stable but not secure.

The Price of Safety

by Anthony Valeri of LPL Financial, 8/19/16

Slow global growth and low or negative interest rate policies from major central banks make for a difficult environment for income investors.

Global Economic Perspective: August

by Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group of Franklin Templeton Investments, 8/19/16

As policymakers confront the limits of the monetary approach, conversations have increasingly turned to a discussion of potential alternatives to combat slow growth. Looking forward, we think this dialogue will likely broaden to include more countries in the months to come.

August Market Outlook Update

by Jim McDonald of Northern Trust, 8/19/16

Risk assets advanced further during the last month, amid a relatively quiet fundamental backdrop. A strong July U.S. payroll report, following an even stronger June reading, helped quell concerns over the pace of recovery in the world’s largest economy.

Gold Spending in India Is Set to Get a Boost from a Strong Monsoon Season

by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors, 8/19/16

Since before recorded human history, the people of India have had an insatiable appetite for gold, treasuring it not only for its flawless natural beauty and religious significance but also as a superb store of value.

LIBOR: Checkered Past, Pressured Present

by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 8/19/16

The London Interbank Offering Rate sounds like something the financial gentry might discuss in a back room at the Oxford and Cambridge Club.

Political Reality

by Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital Management, 8/17/16

The world of politics has its own, altered reality, in which economic reality often seems not to impinge. No choices need be made: candidates can promise it all. And there are no consequences. If something might have negative consequences in the real world, politicians seem to feel free to ignore them. If someone annoying, like a journalist or an opposing candidate, asks about potential consequences, it’s easy these days to misrepresent them or deny they exist. And if it turns out that costs or consequences were willfully ignored, no redress is available: election victories based on unmet promises can’t be rescinded, and candidates can’t be sued over falsehoods on the stump.

Weekly Market Summary

by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch, 8/17/16

Fund managers’ cash allocations are only slightly lower than in February and allocations to equities only slightly higher. Both are about one standard deviation away from their long term mean. Overall, fund managers' defensive positioning supports higher equity prices in the month(s) ahead.

On My Radar: The Best Looking Dude at the Dance

by Steve Blumenthal of CMG Capital Management Group, 8/16/16

Let’s take a look today at just how attractive U.S. interest rates are relative to most of the world. To wit, the title of today’s piece, “The Best Looking Dude at the Dance.”

Weighing the Week Ahead: Have Stock and Oil Prices Decoupled?

by Jeff Miller of NewArc Investments, Inc., 8/15/16

This week’s calendar features another relatively light week for data, a lot of politics, slow summer trading, and options expiration. Something has to fill all of that air time! Expect more Olympic coverage, political commentary, and light features.

The Decade of Zero and its Chaotic Unwinding

by John Hussman of Hussman Funds, 8/15/16

Put simply, most apparent “opportunities” to obtain investment returns above zero in conventional assets over the coming decade are based on a misunderstanding of valuations, total returns, and historical yield relationships. At current valuations, virtually everything is priced for a decade of zero.

Go Gold!

by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors, 8/13/16

Today marks one week since the start of the Rio de Janeiro Olympics, and it’s been nothing short of amazing. Michael Phelps, whose name should forevermore be synonymous with the Olympics, won his 22nd overall gold medal. He also was awarded his 13th individual gold, effectively breaking a record last set in 152 B.C. by runner Leonidas of Rhodes.

REITs vs. Your Home

by Burland East of Altegris Advisors, 8/12/16

Many people don’t have an investment allocation to real estate investment trusts (“REITs”) because they believe they already have “enough” exposure to “real estate” through ownership of their home.REITs and your home are very different asset classes with very different characteristics. REITs invest primarily in commercial real estate, which is any non-residential property used for commercial profit-making purposes. Your home is an investment in residential real estate, which is a type of property, containing either a single-family or multifamily structure, which is available for occupation and non-business purposes.

A Bear, A Brexit, and A Welcome Start to 2016

by Chris Clark, Francis Gannon, and Chuck Royce of The Royce Funds, 8/11/16

The market's pronounced shift toward companies with attractive to reasonable valuations, solid balance sheets, and strong profitability in the first half of 2016 helped many active managers, ourselves included.

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