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Risk Revisited Again
by Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital Management, 6/8/15
In April 2014, I had good results with Dare to Be Great II, starting from the base established in an earlier memo (Dare to Be Great, September 2006) and adding new thoughts that had occurred to me in the intervening years. Also in 2006 I wrote Risk, my first memo devoted entirely to this key subject. My thinking continued to develop, causing me to dedicate three chapters to risk among the twenty in my book The Most Important Thing. This memo adds to what I’ve previously written on the topic.

China Reforms Create a New Muni Market
by Hayden Briscoe of AllianceBernstein, 6/5/15
Are you an optimist or a pessimist? These days, news about China seems to be mainly good or mainly bad. The market and media response to China’s local-government debt swap programme shows why maintaining a balanced view is essential.

Billions and Billions Pour into India and China
by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors, 6/5/15
It’s been a little over a year since Narendra Modi took office in India, and so far the results have been mostly positive for the South Asian country and the surrounding region. Among other achievements, Modi’s government has managed to enact important policy reforms, increase public investments in infrastructure, lower food inflation and generally open India up to business on a global scale.

Frank Sinatra on the Reinvestment of Unrealized Gains
by William Smead of Smead Capital Management, 6/3/15
In the song, “That’s Life,” Frank Sinatra tells us everything we need to know about the process of creating wealth in the stock market. We believe a little known component of creating that wealth lies in the reinvestment of unrealized gains in long duration common stock ownership.

Does JPMorgan Chase Add Value For Investors?
by Larry Swedroe, 6/2/15
J.P. Morgan Asset Management has more than $318 billion in assets under management in mutual funds. But the question remains: Have their funds been adding value for investors, or has the firm itself been the real beneficiary?

On My Radar: Inflation and The Big (Bigger) Short
by Steve Blumenthal of CMG Capital Management Group, 6/1/15
"Negative-yield bonds now account for some €1.5 trillion of debt issued by governments in the euro area, equivalent to almost 30% of the total outstanding. Many expect even more of the global bond market to fall into negative yield territory. Half of all government bonds in the world today yield less than 1%.”– John Mauldin

How Much Should We Invest in Emerging Markets?
by Dr. Burton Malkiel of WaveFront Capital Management, 5/28/15
Investors today are significantly underexposed to emerging markets; fortunately, the opportunity to correct this flaw is the best in years.

On My Radar: Investor Behavior, Margin Debt & The Merciless Mathematics of Loss
by Steve Blumenthal of CMG Capital Management Group, 5/27/15
As the Fed nears its tipping point, let’s take a look at investor tendencies and the risk to the market when investors are nearly “all in”. Can we safely ‘get off the Fed’s juice’? They are going to try and it’s going to get bumpy.

For Bond Investors, The Timing of Liftoff Matters
by Kristina Hooper of Allianz Global Investors, 5/27/15
Kristina Hooper, US Investment Strategist for Allianz Global Investors, breaks down last week's FOMC minutes and public remarks from Fed Chair Janet Yellen. Find out why the path of rate hikes and the timing of tightening both matter.

Senior Loan CEFs
by Investius News, 5/26/15
Senior loan CEFs may appeal to “defensive” income investors, but don’t expect immediate payoff, says Ken Fincher of First Trust Advisors.

Our May 2015 Market Commentary
by Adam Jordan of Paul R. Ried Financial Group, 5/21/15
We could spend this letter going into detail on the topics du jour, such as if/when we think the Fed will finally raise interest rates (they will...eventually). Or whether Greece will leave the Euro (they probably will...eventually). Or what we think of China’s growth (It will continue slowing...Slowly).

Do Goldman Sachs' Funds Add Value for Investors?
by Larry Swedroe, 5/19/15
Over the last few years, an expanding line of mutual funds created by commercial banks such as Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase have been drawing billions of dollars from investors looking to earn a good return. While the fees these funds have generated are among the few consistent bright spots of growth on Wall Street, the question for investors is whether or not the active mutual funds managed by these banks actually have been good investment choices.

On My Radar: Valuations and Forward Return
by Steve Blumenthal of CMG Capital Management Group, 5/19/15
This week let’s take a look at current market valuations (high) and what they are telling us about probable 10-year forward returns (low).

Investor Sentiment Around the World
by Mark Mobius of Franklin Templeton Investments, 5/18/15
We certainly don’t want to jump to any conclusions about potential market performance based on investor sentiment (or any one indicator for that matter), but it reminds me of the late Sir John Templeton’s famous words: ‘Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism and die on euphoria.

Security Selection and Liquidity Management Are Key in the Steadily Growing Credit Market
by Jelle Brons, David Linton of PIMCO, 5/18/15
Over the past several years, two trends have reshaped the market for U.S. investment grade (IG) corporate bonds: a significant increase in the size of the market (both in number of issuers and issues and in aggregate debt outstanding) and a contraction in dealer balance sheets.

Beyond the Active vs. Passive Debate
by Robert Cron of Bronfman E.L. Rothschild, 5/15/15
The active versus passive debate is a hot topic in the financial media. That’s no surprise given recent performance and a dramatic shift in investors’ preferences. For several years, the average passively managed fund has outperformed the average actively managed fund.

The Happening
by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James, 5/13/15
“The Happening” . . . except in this case I am not referring to the 1967 movie, whose title song was sung by the Supremes, but last Thursday’s “Friends of Fermentation” (FOF) gathering at Bobby Van’s across from the NYSE.

When is “in” not the opposite of “out”?
by Jerry Wagner of Flexible Plan Investments, 5/13/15
When you ask someone what is the opposite of “in,” they automatically say “out.” But when you ask them “What’s the opposite of income?”, some might immediately start to say “outcome”, but that’s never their final guess.

High Yield: Handling Headline Risk
by Milton Ezrati of Lord Abbett, 5/12/15
Market movements caused by the sharp drop—and subsequent recovery—in oil prices provide insight on successfully navigating the high-yield market.

Corporate Earnings and Inflation
by Clyde Kendzierski of Financial Solutions Group, 5/11/15
A few months ago our 2015 forecast emphasized several points we began making late last year. Taken together, those points differed dramatically from the prevailing wisdom of the time. As we begin May, they are falling into place.

How to Dress for a Rainy Day
by Niels Jensen of Absolute Return Partners, 5/5/15
The answer is the Lollapalooza effect. The question you may recall from last month’s Absolute Return Letter - what’s the opposite of a perfect storm, or put another way, what do you call it when an unusual combination of constructive factors creates an outcome which is extraordinarily positive? A reader was kind enough to provide the answer, which was coined by Charles Munger years ago. As a non-American, the answer was at first complete gobbledygook to me, but a quick Google search convinced me that the answer is absolutely legitimate. Thank you.

On My Radar: “The Rodney Dangerfield Expansion”
by Steve Blumenthal of CMG Capital Management Group, 5/4/15
"Earnings don't move the overall market; it’s the Federal Reserve board. And whatever you do, focus on the central banks and focus on the movement of liquidity. Most people in the market are looking for earnings and conventional measures. It's liquidity that moves markets." - Stan Druckenmiller

The Importance of Full Market Cycle Returns
by Ryan Leggio, Steven Romick of FPA Funds, 5/4/15
A full market cycle can be defined as a peak-to-peak period that contains a price decline of at least 15% from the previous market peak, followed by a rebound that establishes a new, higher peak.1 Few publications or data providers publish, let alone highlight, full market cycle returns, yet we believe understanding them can help the return of your portfolio over the long-term.

Do More Americans Feel Confident About Retirement?
by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management, 4/29/15
More Americans say they are feeling more confident about their retirement. That’s according to the results of the latest “Retirement Confidence Survey” conducted each year by the non-profit Employee Benefit Research Institute (EBRI). The Washington-based EBRI is the leading source for data on savings, retirement, health and related issues.

MLPs Waxing not Waning
by David Chiaro of Eagle Global Advisors, 4/29/15
We view the recent sell off of MLPs/midstream energy infrastructure companies as a buying opportunity. Our long-term evaluation of the total return prospects of these companies is very good, especially on a risk adjusted basis.

Newsletter
by Harold Evensky of Evensky & Katz / Foldes Financial Wealth Management, 4/29/15
Harold Evensky presents his quarterly newsletter.

On My Radar: Recession Watch – Keep an Eye on This Chart
by Steve Blumenthal of CMG Capital Management Group, 4/27/15
Understanding when a recession might begin is important to our long-term financial health. Why? The stock market declines approximately 40% during recessions.

U.S. Consumers Gaining Ground
by John Osterweis, Matt Berler of Osterweis Capital Management, 4/23/15
In early 2015 global financial markets continued to be buoyed by a combination of low interest rates, central bank liquidity and positive, albeit modest, economic growth. For some time we have been talking about the "Goldilocks" backdrop of slow growth, low inflation and low interest rates that has been very rewarding for financial assets.

The Best Asset Allocation for Retirees
by David Blanchett, 4/21/15
In this article, I determine the optimal glide path for retirees using varying initial bond yields and stock market valuations.

On My Radar: The Speech at Lost Tree Club
by Steve Blumenthal of CMG Capital Management Group, 4/20/15
You and I are in a tough business. It is based on probabilities and involves imperfection. The mismatch between customer expectations and practical reality is challenging. Art Cashin said, That to survive 50 years in this business, you learn that the first thing you do when you enter a room is look for the exit sign. It is with this thinking that I also share a great piece on investing and risk from Ned Davis.

Junior Mining Companies Have Taken a Senior Role
by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors, 4/17/15
For the past decade, junior mining companies have outperformed senior miners at finding new mineral deposits and generating wealth for investors.

Who will get caught skinny-dipping?
by Edward Perkin of Eaton Vance, 4/17/15
More than six years into a bull market for all major asset classes, are there any true investment bargains left?

1Q 2015 Newsletter: Eliminating the Confusion about Active Equity Management
by William Smead of Smead Capital Management, 4/16/15
There are a great number of bright mathematicians out there who can explain almost everything in common stock selection and portfolio management. One well-known student of the arena is Michael Mauboussin, a Managing Director at Credit Suisse, who recently published a challenging piece of research seeking to explain how difficult it was last year (2014) for mutual funds to beat the S&P 500 Index. In reviewing his analysis, we are reminded that calling stock picking and portfolio management “active management” has done the investment marketplace a huge disservice.

Second Quarter Market Commentary 2015
by The CCR Wealth Management Investment Committee of CCR Wealth Management, 4/14/15
Over a year ago in our January 2014 Outlook commentary, we cited European markets as attractively priced relative to the US equity markets. Most market observers at the time were expecting a nascent recovery from the 2012 EU recession to get a boost from the European Central Bank (ECB). We even boosted our non-US developed market (and European-specific) allocation—though cautiously—in anticipation. Please note that we still think these markets are most attractively valued.

Liquid Alternative Strategies as Mutual Funds
by Michael Winchell of Larkin Point Investment Advisors LLC, 4/13/15
The recent growth of mutual funds offering a wide array of liquid alternative strategies has raised questions among many advisors about the possible drawbacks of attempting alternative strategies within a 1940 Act vehicle.

On My Radar: High Valuations = Low Forward Returns
by Steve Blumenthal of CMG Capital Management Group, 4/13/15
“I can’t change the direction of the wind, but I can adjust my sails to always reach my destination. – Jimmy Dean”

Combining Active and Passive: Three Issues to Consider for Risk-Averse Investors
by Clint Harris of Invesco Blog, 4/10/15
I was having a lively due diligence meeting with a retirement consultant the other day, discussing how our team manages Invesco Diversified Dividend Fund, and where we, as a conservative strategy, see opportunities and risks in the market today. Then came a moment of truth. The consultant sat back and said, “I really believe in what you all are doing, but many of my retirement plan committees just want passive index funds to bring down expenses.”

Currencies Are a 2-Way Street
by Jerry Wagner of Flexible Plan Investments, 4/7/15
Humans are funny animals. There are many events, experiences, environments, and data points in the world shaping our perception. There is a psychological phenomenon called the recency effect, although it is known in the investment world as recency bias. Without delving into the psychological science as to why this happens, I think you will agree that most people tend to place a greater emphasis on more recent events.

An In-Depth Look at the MFS Value Fund
by Larry Swedroe, 4/7/15
As I continue with my series analyzing the performance of some of the most successful actively managed mutual funds, it's important to acknowledge that I possess the benefit of hindsight; I am selecting funds I know have done well in the past. The question I seek to answer is whether investors should expect that outperformance to continue. With that in mind, today we'll take an in-depth look at the MFS Value Fund (MEIAX).

On The Economy, The Environment & Income Tax Time
by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management, 4/4/15
The combination of topics for today’s E-Letter might seem unusual, and it is – the economy, the environment and income tax time. How do those fit together? They don’t really, but I think you will find today’s discussion on each to be interesting.

The Perfect Storm for Risk-Conscious Active Managers
by The Royce Funds, 4/2/15
Principal and Portfolio Manager Steve Lipper discusses three specific conditions that have shaped the current small-cap market and how, after five years, these developments all showed signs of reversing in the latter part of 2014.

On My Radar: Going Forward with Great Purpose!
by Steve Blumenthal of CMG Capital Management Group, 3/31/15
The Fed tried to talk down the dollar last Wednesday. Essentially firing a warning shot (downgrading estimates for growth, inflation and short-term interest rates). The ultra-low rates in Germany and Japan vs. the U.S. favor the dollar. Anything that points to the Fed raising rates enhances the attractiveness of U.S. bonds and attracts further capital flows.

Liquidity
by Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital Management, 3/27/15
My wife Nancy’s accusations of repetitiveness notwithstanding, once in a while I think of something about which I haven’t written much. Liquidity is one of those things. I’m not sure it’s a profound topic, and perhaps my observations won’t be either. But I think it’s worth a memo.

Woe Betide the Value Investor
by Jason Hsu, Vivek Viswanathan of Research Affiliates, 3/27/15
The excess return earned by the average investor in value mutual funds was meaningfully negative over a 23-year period when the funds themselves outperformed the market. Why don’t all value investors benefit from the value premium?

The Dollar Isn't the Peso Anymore (Part II)
by Richard Bernstein of Eaton Vance, 3/25/15
In May 2013, Richard wrote a report titled “The Dollar isn’t the Peso anymore.” He rebutted the argument that the U.S. dollar (USD) was weak. The data showed that the USD had actually troughed in the spring of 2008. For seven years now, the USD has been gaining strength and is today a standout among the world’s currencies.

Active vs. Passive Redux
by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James, 3/25/15
Most of you know I spend my days gathering “thin reeds” and try to weave them into a favorable “investment bouquet.” As Yogi Berra said, “You can observe a lot by just watchin’!”

An In-Depth Look at Fidelity's Contrafund
by Larry Swedroe, 3/24/15
Fidelity's largest actively managed fund is the Contrafund (FCNTX). It's also among Fidelity's top performers, making it their flagship fund, a status previously accorded to the Magellan Fund under Peter Lynch. Will Contrafund investors continue to enjoy outperformance or will they face flagging returns like Magellan's investors did following Lynch's departure?

On My Radar: Investors Behaving Badly
by Steve Blumenthal of CMG Capital Management Group, 3/23/15
There were several charts that caught my eye this week. The first is a chart that tells us the likely annual return for the S&P 500 Index will average just 2.25% over the next ten years. Many valuation measurements support a period of probable low future returns, but this particular data is different – it looks at the percentage of household equity ownership.

How Should Advisors Evaluate Alternative Strategies?
by Michael Winchell of Larkin Point Investment Advisors LLC, 3/23/15
Because modern portfolio theory emphasizes the value of holding instruments having low cross-correlations, we’ve heard many advisors describe the search for alternative investments as a search for assets with low correlations to either equities or bonds. This leads advisors too often to consider nontraditional assets over alternative strategies. We believe that perspective is too narrow and misses the larger point. It is our opinion that clients primarily desire reasonable returns with low volatility, and that there are many ways to achieve that goal.

Muni market – Favorable environment remains in place
by James Dearborn of Columbia Management, 3/19/15
Municipal bond market volatility in early '15 may have investors wondering if they should sell today and lock in their gains from 2014. After 13 consecutive months of positive returns, the muni market turned negative in February and the first two weeks of March as interest rates rose. After such a long and strong run, it is not surprising that the muni market has taken a step backward. That said, we do not see reason to panic and continue to believe that the muni market remains on sound footing due to supportive market fundamentals and technicals, as well as our entrenched high tax environment
Results 2,551–2,600 of 3,303 found.