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Preparing for Rising Medical Costs in Retirement - 2016
The Affordable Care Act (commonly known as the “ACA” or “Obamacare”) has had a significant effect on retiree health care costs and retirement planning, and those effects are likely only to increase in the years ahead. People nearing or in retirement need to understand the extent to which their medical expenses are likely to increase, and steps they can take now to help ensure they will be able to afford medical care after they retire.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Is the Fed Too Optimistic?
The calendar continues in something of an alternating mode. Last week had plenty of important data; this week has little. Instead we get multiple speeches from Fed Presidents and Governors and the release of the last FOMC minutes. Little data plus lots of Fed news is a natural draw for the punditry. This week they will be asking:
Is the Fed too optimistic?
On My Radar: Fed Stuck Between Three Rocks and a Hard Place
“Now these monetary institutions are expected to continue producing miracles. But their ability to repeatedly pull new rabbits out of their policy hats has been stretched to an increasingly unsustainable degree.” -Mohamed A. El-Erian, The Only Game in Town
Gold Had Its Best Quarter in a Generation. So Where Are the Investors?
he last time gold had a quarter this strong, Ronald Reagan was a year into his second term as president, the Soviet Union was taking its final gasp and the U.S. was still reeling from the Challenger explosion. Year-to-date, the yellow metal has risen 16.5 percent, its best three-month performance since 1986, mostly on fears of negative interest rates and other global central bank policies.
First Quarter Odds and Ends
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust,
Four months after terrorist attacks struck the streets of Paris, Europe was hit again, at its heart – Brussels. The sophistication of the attacks amid tightened security has once again raised questions around intelligence-sharing across Europe’s borders, and added fuel to the migration debate.
Emerging Markets Update: Is Now the Time for Emerging Markets?
by Roger Edgley, Ajay Krishnan, Andrey Kutuzov, Scott Thomas, Matthew Dreith of Wasatch Global Investors,
Why emerging-market stocks have generally performed poorly over the last five years—and why selectively chosen emerging-market businesses are now attractive in our view. We outline catalysts that could lead to sustainable advances in certain EM stocks and discuss the “new reality” that the opportunity set for truly great emerging-market investments has narrowed. This opportunity set includes high-quality growth companies in Internet technologies, health care, business-process innovation, and products and services for the expanding middle-class consumer segments in emerging markets.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Can Markets Finally Celebrate Good News?
The data calendar continues in something of an alternating mode. This week we have a concentration of the important economic releases. We also have daily appearances by Fed members. This provides a daily opportunity for pundits to interpret the news: Can markets finally celebrate good news?
Indian Government Sovereign Paper - the Search for Carry Ends Here
by Ritesh Jain of Tata Asset Management,
Investors need to look at the INR and Indian sovereign G-sec through a fresh pair of lens. Last year, in a major monetary policy overhaul, RBI adopted inflation targeting as a guide to its monetary policy for the first time. India is among the few EM countries in the world with inflation targeting as a monetary policy tool. Inflation targeting will mean that the INR’s depreciation will not be as severe as in the past which will leave more carry in the hands of the investors.
The Russian Withdrawal
On March 14, Russian President Vladimir Putin surprised the world with an announcement of the withdrawal of Russian troops from Syria. The move was unexpected and has raised questions as to whether Russia will really pull its forces out of Syria, and if so, why? In this report, we will examine Russia's initial decision to place forces in Syria and discuss if Putin really means to remove his troops from the country. We will examine what might have prompted the decision to announce the withdrawal and, as always, discuss the market implications of the decision.
The Fed's Disappearing Act
A busy last week for economic data, most of it good. The S&P 500 rose for the fifth straight week. The broad market is now up 12% in little over a month, up 2% year to date but still down 2% for the last twelve months. Emerging Markets, bonds, treasuries, TIPS and U.S. Small Company stocks are all positive of the year.
Rising Global Taxes and Regulations (Indirect Taxation) Are Chipping Away at the Benefits of Low Int
Compliance and regulation measures have intensified from the financial sector to the food industry, from the U.S. all the way to Brazil. Many CEOs of banks, as well as brokers that I have spoken with recently, have lamented on the financial burden of excessive regulation and the indirect taxation that comes along with this rise in rules on steroids. Regulations are fueled with good intentions; however, the unexpected consequences like slow global growth need to be adjusted.
Schwab Market Perspective: Sigh of Relief
Beaten down areas of the market have staged a nice turnaround. Stocks have moved well off the lows and the S&P 500 is now within shouting distance of the flatline for the year. Areas of the market that were some of the hardest hit—such as materials, energy and financials—have posted some of the best gains over the past month.
Fear…Not?
The fears that had cast a pall over January weighed on the markets in early February as well, but sentiment improved sharply as the month progressed. Encouraging U.S. economic data contributed to an improvement in global risk appetite.
Investors marveled at yet another V-shaped trajectory in the markets in February, but concerns still lingered.
Seven: Happy Anniversary Bull Market (?)
by Liz Ann Sonders of Charles Schwab,
Last week we celebrated the seventh anniversary of the U.S. bull market, which commenced on March 9, 2009 and has since generated a total return for the S&P 500 of 247%. The traditional gift for the seventh anniversary is copper, which is fitting since the strong rally many “risk-on” assets have staged since U.S. stocks bottomed on February 11, has been accompanied (driven?) by a surge in commodities, including copper and more importantly oil.
Equities Advance Again, But Risks Lurk on the Horizon
Equities posted a fourth consecutive week of gains for the first time since
last November. The S&P 500 Index was up 1.2% due in part to yet another
increase in oil prices and a positive reaction to the European Central Bank’s
policy easing announcement.
Did Oil Prices Just Find a Bottom?
On a global scale, oil production is finally dropping—and that’s constructive for prices. In a report released today, the International Energy Agency (IEA) writes that “prices might have bottomed out,” citing a February decline in both OPEC and non-OPEC output and hopes of U.S. dollar weakness.Although I’m cautious, the current recovery is in line with oil’s seasonality trends for the five- and 15-year periods, which show that prices have risen between March and the beginning of the busy summer travel season.
On My Radar: The Draghi Bazooka
Last week’s mention of the great Art Cashin sent a number of emails my way. The one that touched me most was from Richard who worked for Paine Webber from 1974 to 1987. Back then every broker had a small speaker on his or her desk. We in the industry know it as the “squawk” box.
China's Trilemma—and a Possible Solution
by Ben Bernanke of Brookings Institute,
China’s central banker, Zhou Xiaochuan of the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), and other top Chinese officials recently launched a communications offensive to persuade markets and foreign policymakers that no significant devaluation of the Chinese currency is planned.[1] Is the no-devaluation strategy a good one for China? If it is, what does China need to do to make its exchange-rate commitments credible?
On My Radar: Stick With the Drill – Stay Wary, Alert and Very, Very Nimble
I was in Florida this week attending the 32nd Annual Chicago Board of Options Exchange (CBOE) Risk Management Conference. Attendees were mostly asset managers and larger pension and endowment managers. Several comments stood out to me; particularly the one above from Paul R.T. Johnson, Jr., Board Member of the State University Retirement System. “42% funded?” He added that the good news is that his is the most funded of all the states. Yikes.
Is the Market Overvalued or are the Measuring Gauges Broken?
by Theodore Wong,
It is remarkable that market-top calls have enticed many advisors and analysts to fully embrace the CAPE ratio as their crystal ball to foretell the future of the stock market. Such faith, as I will demonstrate, is misguided.
Weighing the Week Ahead: What Does the Election Mean for Financial Markets?
Last week’s economic calendar was the biggest of the year and this week’s is the lightest. In the absence of important economic news and earnings, where will financial media turn to fill that space and time? The Presidential election campaign is providing a lot of zest as well as a little substance. I expect financial pundits to be asking:
What Does the Election Mean for Financial Markets?
March: In Like a Lamb, Out Like a Lion?
by Joseph Amato of Neuberger Berman,
In the old days, they said that when March comes in like a lamb it goes out like a lion. The proverb is rooted in the reality that, in the northern hemisphere at least, this month’s weather tends to be changeable and unpredictable—volatile, as we might say in the investing industry. At this time of year, winter and spring contend with one another like bears and bulls in financial markets. When it comes to the seasons, however, we may suffer the odd gale, but we know the days will lengthen, the air will warm. The markets are not so easy to forecast.
Schwab Market Perspective: Neutral Does Not Mean Boring
There are two ways to get to a neutral color: 1) just pick the boring beige that we’re all familiar with, or 2) mix a bunch of wild colors together and end up with an altogether bland sort of color—vastly different inputs but relatively the same result. Recently, stocks have resembled the latter scenario as stock indexes have moved out of correction territory but have remained quite volatile, with triple-digit Dow moves more common than not.
Dividends Don’t Drive Total Return They Contribute To It: Part 1
by Chuck Carnevale of F.A.S.T. Graphs,
I believe there is a critical piece of investment wisdom that all investors in common stocks should possess. Every common stock investor should have a clear understanding of where and how long-term common stock returns are generated or come from. When an investor does not possess this knowledge, they can be easily led towards drawing erroneous conclusions about their portfolios and/or the individual stocks that they own. Knowledge is power, and the knowledge of where and how long-term stock returns are generated is incredibly enlightening.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Can a Rebounding Economy Support Stock Prices?
This week’s economic calendar is loaded with all of the most important data. In addition, Super Tuesday might provide a defining event to the political campaign. Oil remains volatile, and Fed Speakers are on the loose. Despite the political stories, I expect the punditry to be asking:
Can the strengthening U.S. economy support the rebound in stocks?
ZIRP & NIRP: Killing Retirement As We Know It
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics,
The zero interest rate and now negative interest rate policies of our central banks are gumming up the global retirement machinery. The Federal Reserve and other central banks have spent so many years subsidizing debt and punishing savings that it is now extremely difficult to guarantee future income streams at a reasonable present cost. And future income streams are the very heart and soul of retirement. Without adequate future income streams, retirement as we know it today is off the table.
Analyzing Despair; Restoring Hope
by Byron Wien of Blackstone,
While I began this year with a cautious view of the financial markets, I did not expect the swift market declines that we have all experienced. At one point, the Standard & Poor’s 500 was down 10% year-to-date. The recent weakness is clearly supported by some serious economic problems which I will explore. My conclusion, however, is that we will not endure either a bear market or a recession this year, and I will try to defend that position in the course of this essay.
The Waiting is the Hardest Part
During my college years, Tom Petty and the Heartbreakers rose to prominence. Over the decades to come, Tom proved that he is an American original singer and songwriter. One of his top hits, “The Waiting,” provides very good advice to common stock investors (even though he was picking among women rather than stocks).
Have Currencies Around the World Overshot Fair Value?
by Roger Edgley, Ajay Krishnan, Andrey Kutuzov, Scott Thomas, Matt Dreith of Wasatch Global Investors,
We think there’s a case to be made that most emerging-market currencies, along with some developed-market currencies, have seriously overshot in their weakness against the U.S. dollar. A reversal of this trend would be very positive for emerging-market investors. Moreover, we believe such a reversal of the five-year trend may have already started or may be close at hand.
A Value Fund That Doesn’t Respect the Style Box
by John Coumarianos,
Staking a permanent geographical claim to a part of the style box can be detrimental to a fund’s performance. Being geographically flexible, on the other hand, can be helpful. Recently, for example, avoiding energy exposure and gaining exposure to sectors normally found outside of the value managers’ typical habitats have been a boon for 27-month old value fund, DoubleLine Shiller Enhanced CAPE (DSEEX).
Global Economic Perspective: February
The impact of China’s rebalancing is likely to remain a headwind, particularly for countries that have relied on its appetite for raw materials. But this is likely to be counterbalanced by the continuation of the various accommodative monetary policies that are in place around the world.
Schwab Market Perspective: Confidence is Key
There are many words that could be used to describe the first six weeks of 2016 with regard to stock performance but given that this is a family publication we’ll stick with frustrating. There have been rebounds, including the latest fierce recovery which has taken US stocks out of correction mode; but a lot of confidence has been shattered. These are the times that can make or break an investing plan. Our long-held mantra is that panic is not an investing strategy and that investing should always be a disciplined process over time; never about decisions at moments in time.
How to Find Killer Stocks Amongst the Carnage
The weekly S&P500 chart is indicating the market is making lower highs and lower lows. Whether we believe it or not, the market trend has changed decisively from up to down until further notice.
Certainly the courage of our convictions will be challenged by a spectacular short covering rally, but don’t’ be deceived, we are in correction mode at best or a dreaded bear market at worst.
Results 2,501–2,550
of 3,702 found.
