The World Trade Organization plays a crucial role in global trade. How essential is it, and what can we expect as trade tensions rise?

Two recent research studies upended the conventional wisdom about why advisors lose clients – one an internal study by a large investment firm, the second a research report from the consulting firm Accenture.

Volatility returned and pulled markets across the globe into the red. Slowing growth momentum outside the U.S. further weighed on sentiment. Political developments from Latin America to Europe were a source of both uncertainty and assurance for markets.

Today we’ll look at a new book by Ray Dalio called Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises in which he examines those debt cycles and what we can do about them.

Corporate bonds offer incredibly poor prospects under any scenario, according to Jeffrey Gundlach. If rates rise, prices will drop quickly because their durations are between 7 and 10 years. Falling rates are no better, he said, because they would be accompanied by a bear market in stocks with effects that would extend to corporate bonds.

October brought a significant increase in market volatility and a broad equity sell-off to match the late-January through early-February move lower.

As I have pointed out previously, the U.S. is currently running a nearly $1 Trillion dollar deficit during an economic expansion. This is completely contrary to the Keynesian economic theory.

Democrats took the House of Representative. Republicans held the Senate. What should investors expect from the US midterm election outcome? In the way of policy, not much. But the new political landscape may be good for markets.

This week, we evaluate the potential near-term futures of nationalism, inflation, demographic shifts, emerging markets and the effects of prosperity. What trends can we expect to encounter?

Let’s be clear. October’s market decline was a rather mild warning shot. At its lowest close, the S&P 500 lost -9.9% from its September peak, before rebounding in recent sessions. As I noted during the 2000-2002 and 2007-2009 collapses, intermittent “fast, furious, prone-to-failure” rebounds are among the factors that encourage investors to hold on through the entirety of major declines.

Artificial intelligence (AI) and automation present enormous investment opportunities, some in ways we don’t even know yet. As the world adapts to technological advances, Franklin Templeton Emerging Markets Equity’s Sukumar Rajah and Eric Mok think some promising developments in Asia could dictate the pace of change in the burgeoning AI market.

Harold Evensky's latest newsletter.

Because of the risk of data mining, an important criterion for considering an investment strategy (such as a factor) is to not only see that a factor adds explanatory power to the cross section of returns while delivering a premium, but that the premium is persistent across time and economic regimes and is pervasive around the globe. By examining the performance of factors outside of the U.S., we create out-of-sample tests.

Fox Business recently discussed a new study showing that more Americans doubted they would be able to save enough for retirement than those confident of reaching their goals. There were some interesting stats from the study.

Debt is future spending pulled forward in time. It lets you buy something now for which you otherwise don’t have cash available yet. Whether it’s wise or not depends on what you buy. Debt to educate yourself so you can get a better job may be a good idea. Borrowing money to finance your vacation? Probably not.

Is the International Monetary Fund a useful tool in preventing economic dysfunction? Or, as the nationalists claim, are there more appropriate uses of capital?

Over three days a selection of our investment managers, economists and strategists congregated in London for our annual Global Investment Forum (GIF). The GIF is designed to tune out the day-to-day market noise and focus on key market drivers over the medium term.

Change is good, but some things shouldn’t—and one of those is quarterly publication of my overview of the economy and the markets. I always like to start this commentary with an overview of the economy, as most stock market events are driven by economic events.

Crowded trades have become all too common in fixed-income markets. But running with the crowd is risky, particularly when it comes to illiquid assets like bank loans that may not be easy to sell during a market downturn.

Investors’ first look at third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) will be released on Friday, October 26. Based on the economic data and projections we’ve seen, the economy grew at a moderate to strong pace in the third quarter, with the Bloomberg-surveyed economists’ consensus at 3.4%.

Anthony Eames is a vice president of Eaton Vance Management and director of responsible investment strategy. In this interview, he discusses the emerging trends in ESG/SRI products and how advisors can better serve their clients with responsible investing solutions.

Stop by to see us at booth 300 in the exhibit hall, where you’ll have a chance to talk with our product representatives.

Most major economies appear to be gradually advancing through the credit cycle, with most countries in recovery or expansion. We expect global growth to remain near current levels, but we are mindful of key risks. Read on for a visual snapshot of growth themes across the globe.

Di Zhou and Jim Gassman are co-managers of the Thornburg Better World International Fund (TBWIX), a global ESG fund. Since its inception on 9/30/15, through 9/30/18, the fund has earned an annualized rate of return of 10.96%, outperforming its benchmark, the MSCI ACWI Ex-US USD index, by 117 basis points. As of 9/30/18, the fund has been rated five stars by Morningstar.

Stop by to see us at booth #388 (near the Bear & Bull Pub) in the exhibit hall, where you’ll have a chance to talk with our product representatives and pick up our latest features in the Wall Street Transcript and Value Investor Insight.

One word can ruin an entire email and one email can ruin a relationship. Here are eight phrases that will stop prospects from wanting to do business with you.

How do you compete with the electronic bombardment facing your clients and prospects and get your email to stand out?

Bond holders can still find opportunities amid the tug of war between strengthening cyclical forces that usually produce inflation and powerful long-term trends—an aging population, technology’s impact on labor and the overhang of significant government debt—that are preventing the economy from overheating.

The actor, Tom Cruise, is as enigmatic as the U.S. stock market. He has made many terrific movies over the years and today’s stock market reminds us of his classic sports movie, Jerry Maguire. Jerry was a top sports agent for a large agency and then suddenly, out of nowhere, was dumped out on the street with one client and a top college recruit to work with.

Nicholas P. Sargen is an international economist turned global money manager. His latest book, Investing in the Trump Era: How Economic Policies Impact Financial Markets, was published in August. Here is an excerpt covering the key points of Sargen’s investment recommendations.

It's time to think differently about building sustainable retirement income streams. Since many retirees fund their retirement using a traditional IRA, it makes sense to use a portion of that asset to fund a variable annuity with a GLWB.

Asset price inflation (check). Financed by debt growth (check). We’ve spent the last three weeks reviewing Ray Dalio’s A Template for Understanding Big Debt Crises. I hope you found the insights as helpful as I did.

What do a Nobel Prize, oil prices and employee compensation have in common? Change. The Nobel committee tipped its hat to the importance of recognizing climate change with its prize for Economic Sciences. But changes in oil’s global role and compensation vs. wages are also on our minds

India's growth rate accelerated to 8.2% in the second quarter of 2018 as the shocks from demonetization and the imposition of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) wore off, supported by inventory restocking and a low base of comparison. The principal drivers of growth were government and private spending.

What steps are firms taking to bring about diversity? I’ve been in the industry for over 20 years and I don’t see much changing despite all of the talk.

In 1720, the South Sea Bubble arose from what seemed to be good intentions. The South Sea Company was given an exclusive monopoly on the Spanish Americas in exchange for assuming a large part of England’s debt. The debt holders received preferred shares in the South Sea Company that paid 6% interest.

Perhaps the simplest strategy is to hold just three funds. For equities, you can own the Vanguard Total Market Index Fund and the Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund. On the bond side, you can own the Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund. But such an approach ignores the academic evidence demonstrating there are certain factors that have provided above-market returns to investors willing and able to accept their additional risks.

The revised NAFTA deal relieves uncertainty for Canada and avoids a possible Mexican barrier to ratification. But what does it really mean for the three countries involved—or for trade tension with China?

Quarterly commentary giving an overview of the markets and the importance of having and implementing a strategy when investing in the markets.

Research provides evidence supporting the pervasiveness of the size, value and momentum premiums. That should give investors further confidence that the premiums found in these factors in developed markets were not a result of data mining exercises, which, in turn, should offer confidence that an ex-ante premium for these factors exists around the globe.

The idea for this memo came from the seven worst words in the investment world: “too much money chasing too few deals.”

I don’t trust the fundamentals of the global economy. The system is built on quicksand.

Economic progress continues in the United States, making the current expansion likely to be the longest since World War II. While investors might be expecting signs that the economy’s momentum is losing its mojo because of its duration, the data coming in is some of the strongest we have seen in this cycle.

Conference booths are by far the #1 most archaic form of marketing. Throw that booth application form in the trash bin. Here are better ways to spend your conference-marketing dollars.

Will the Federal Reserve take a hawkish turn at its next meeting ending on 26 September? There are signs it may. Although we expect the Fed to hike rates by 25 basis points, to 2.0% to 2.25%, that’s not our concern.

The US will have the upper hand initially, and could hold it for a year or two. This is because, for now, our economy is relatively strong and we can better withstand any Chinese retaliation. Beyond that point I think our current policies will begin to backfire, maybe spectacularly.

At long last, fixed-income investing is entering the digital age—and investors should pay close attention to what their asset managers are doing to keep up. From better pricing to better solution design, the digital revolution that’s transforming the fixed-income management landscape can lead to a host of benefits.

A little over 10 years ago, few people had heard of mortgage-backed securities (MBS). Yet that changed when MBS brought the global financial system to its knees. Today, they’re still a pivotal part of the system, with the US Federal Reserve (Fed) the largest holder.

Economic reality isn’t black and white. At any given time, both good things and bad things are happening. Ignoring one side because it doesn’t fit your preferred outlook is an excellent way to go badly wrong.

Stimulative measures drive growth, and the U.S. economy and stock market have benefited from quantitative easing, lower rates, less regulation and tax cuts. But Jeffrey Gundlach admonished investors that too much stimulus can backfire.

The recent action in the stock market seems to be governed by crowd psychology and reminds us of a theory we created in college called the “coat theory.” Back in the 1970s, the fraternities and sororities at my alma mater hosted several mixers so the students could get to know each other better.

In June, 28-year-old political newcomer Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez defeated ten-term Congressman Joe Crowley in the New York City Democratic primary race. As if that weren’t surprising enough, she did so while running on a socialist platform.