As coronavirus cases continue to escalate in several new regions, like South Korea, Italy, Japan, Iran, Singapore and the United States, Raymond James Healthcare Policy Analyst Chris Meekins believes we are now in the midst of a COVID-19 pandemic. The word itself isn’t intended to cause panic, but rather to prompt increased awareness of the potential economic and health effects of this rapidly spreading virus.
The impact of the coronavirus is spreading; both geographically and economically. Central banks will likely step in; but supply shocks are difficult to combat.
Once again, China adjusted the criteria for recognizing COVID-19 cases (over 76,000 reported cases as of February 21, with 2,248 deaths). The immediate direct impact on the global economy is through supply chain disruptions and reduced travel/tourism (in China and throughout Southeast Asia).
We have a big economic calendar including important data on consumer confidence, personal income and spending, and inflation. There will also be another round of housing news – two measures of prices, new home sales, and pending home sales. While it is not expected to change, the second estimate of Q4 GDP will be reported.
In September 2017, when the Trump Administration began promoting the idea of tax cut legislation, I wrote a series of articles discussing the fallacy that tax cuts would lead to higher tax collections, and a reduction in the deficit...
Gold mining stocks have broken out, with several hitting new 52-week highs this week. Gold royalty and streaming companies, including Franco-Nevada and Wheaton Precious Metals, also hit fresh 52-week highs.
The Lazard Multi-Asset team details their views over the next six to 12 months. While the United States-China Phase 1 trade agreement and the United Kingdom’s exit from the European Union have reduced near-term uncertainty and improved sentiment, the coronavirus outbreak in China could have a noticeable negative effect on global economic activity.
Thirty years ago, many in the US were in fear that a rising power in Asia was on the verge of eclipsing the US. Now it's China, back then it was Japan.
Growing fears about the coronavirus have hit Chinese stocks. While markets will remain unstable until China gets the outbreak under control, equity investors should revisit lessons from previous epidemics and consider the potential longer-term effects of the current crisis.
So far in 2020, the yield on the 10-year Treasury has averaged 0.01 percent when adjusted for inflation. Since the end of January, it’s actually dipped below 0 percent, trading as low as negative 0.14 percent on January 31.
Our emerging markets equity team looks at news and events shaping emerging market performances in January, from coronavirus fears to trade to Middle East tensions.
Catherine explains the economic and political constraints leaders face in responding to the recent wave of global protests.
So much for tariff talks with China. It’s humbling to note how Mother Nature can upend our entire world view in so short a time. The tragic crisis affecting millions across China and threatening the rest of the world, should act as a long overdue wakeup call to mankind about the healthcare cost of climate change.
CLSA predicts that the price of gold will beat the S&P 500 in 2020. The Hong Kong investment firm has an impressive track record when it comes to making market predictions—last year it had a 70 percent hit rate—so it may be prudent to take this one seriously.
The number of confirmed infections of the coronavirus in mainland China crossed above 24,000 on February 5, having already surpassed the total number of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) cases from 2003.
While it is impossible to predict the extent a virus can spread and have greater consequences than past epidemics, history indicates that the global economy and markets have been relatively immune to the effects of past epidemics. A key reason is that global health organizations are prepared for outbreaks and effective when mobilized.
Matthews Asia CIO Robert Horrocks, PhD, and Investment Strategist Andy Rothman offer their perspectives on the Coronavirus and its possible impact on China's governance and economy.
Although air travel isn’t off to a great start this year, largely due to airlines canceling flights on fears of the coronavirus spreading further outside China, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) predicts 2020 to be strong in terms of travel demand.
As much as we all crave it, asking for another year of continued economic growth and positive equity returns in 2020 may be too much.
Because it’s the first of the 12 zodiacs, the Year of the Rat is seen as a time of beginnings and renewals. That brings us hope, especially paired with the recent positive development in the U.S.-China trade war.
Advisor Perspectives has announced its Venerated Voices™ awards for commentaries published in 2019.
Good things are happening, too, and will keep happening as we move through the 2020s. Occasionally I like to note them, and that’s what we will do today.
Among the biggest contributors to the bitcoin rally is the hope that 2020 could finally see institutional investors move into the digital field en masse, prompted by growing client demand and more attractive ways to get exposure.
The publication this week of the U.S. — China trade deal and the final macro numbers for 2019 should set the stage for healthy economic performance and stronger market sentiment in China in 2020, but the risk of a return to tense relations between Washington and Beijing looms over 2021 and beyond.
Foreign trade ends up being cleared through international money – a currency that the world accepts as final payment, even in places where it is not legal tender.
The best environment would be moderate U.S. growth, a sideways U.S. market and a weaker U.S. dollar.
Four reasons for optimism about emerging-market stocks despite their general underperformance and higher volatility over the last decade.
2019 was a triumphant year for the US large cap equity market, with the S&P500 index up 31% on a total return basis. The resolution of two major concerns in the year, namely the US Fed being too aggressive on rate hikes, and the US/China trade relationship hanging in a total impasse, drove the market higher, particularly in 1st and 4th quarter.
The Ten Surprises of 2019 worked out plenty well. While we don't go through this process with the objective of getting a high score, knowing that you have been able to anticipate some of the generally unexpected events that are going to influence the financial markets during the coming year is gratifying.
Following another year of strong returns, Emerging Markets (EM) fixed income has outperformed developed bond markets by a significant margin over the past four years. The outperformance is likely to continue in 2020, because EM fixed income remains attractively priced both in absolute terms and relative to bonds in developed markets as well as under-owned and well-supported by an improving fundamental backdrop.
The scientific evidence increasingly indicates that the world may soon reach a point of no return regarding climate change. So, rather than worrying almost exclusively about economic and political inequality, rich-country citizens need to start thinking about how to deal with global energy inequality before it’s too late.
I’m optimistic that the U.S. will stand as a beacon of freedom and opportunity in the 2020s and beyond, but with more and more younger Americans supporting socialism over capitalism, I believe it prudent to proceed with caution. That means making sure you’re holding some gold in your portfolio.
What were the top financial news stories of 2019? To answer that question, Frank looks back at his five most visited articles from the year that was.
Naturally, this is the time when market-watchers issue their forecasts for what may lie ahead, and my team is no exception. Simply put, we expect continued monetary policy accommodation with little fiscal stimulus. Therefore, we are more optimistic about capital markets than we are about the overall economy, and we favor risk assets over non-risk assets for 2020.
Investing is never easy, especially these days, as internal political factions and international relations are so divided and yet so important to predict. That said, despite all our stress and complaints, prior generations would say that relative to their experience, we actually live in calm and prosperous times.
Boris Johnson’s victory bodes well for Trump in 2020. The British PM’s Conservative party toppled the so-called “red wall,” winning seats across rural, working-class North and Midlands counties that had for decades been considered safe Labour territory.
Rates were unpredictable, central banks were active, trade was volatile but consumers were undaunted. We reflect on the major economic trends of 2019.
Argentina and Brazil have an opportunity to reverse a long string of underperformance. The challenges are considerable, but we believe signs of progress in either economy could lead to a significant rerating of their markets.
Free from a house view on economies, markets or stocks, J O Hambro Capital Management’s (JOHCM) fund managers invariably see the world in different ways. We asked a number of our managers for their thoughts on the outlook for their asset class next year, what they would like to see and the possible surprises that 2020 could bring.
President Trump called it “amazing,” and U.S. Trade Representative Lighthizer said the China deal is “remarkable.” In my view, however, it is merely the best trade deal in the last 36 months of Chinese history, and it falls well short of two key objectives. Because the deal sets highly unrealistic goals for U.S. exports to China...
Why the country represents an increasingly attractive opportunity for both domestic and global investors.
Now that the US and China have agreed to begin easing trade tensions, the fog over China’s markets is starting to lift. Investors should consider Chinese equity opportunities that have been overlooked because of tariff fears.
The emerging markets (“EM”) equity asset class has evolved considerably over the past decade such that many active EM equity managers may find it challenging to create long-term alpha over the benchmark. Countries such as China and India are moving to the fore, historical drivers of growth are changing and technology, innovation and health care are becoming a larger part of the opportunity set. It has been difficult for EM investment teams to keep up with these changes. My guest today, David Dali, wrote those words in a recent commentary, and we discuss how he and his team are positioning to adapt to that changing landscape.
Predicting a major economic or financial event—whether that’s a recession, market downturn or even your own retirement—requires that you also take action. Otherwise your prediction was meaningless.
Asia goes into the global deceleration with already-lean companies and a valuation advantage.
It was a mixed month for emerging markets in November, as shifting expectations about a trade deal between China and the United States continued to drive market sentiment. Our emerging markets equity team explains why US-China trade issues may not be that big of a concern for some emerging markets, and provides an overview of the news and events shaping markets during the month.
Factor performance, as conceived by Fama and French and refined by others, is based on adding the returns of a “long” portfolio of securities that most embody the factors to a “short” portfolio that least represent the factors. But it is common practice for mutual funds and ETFs to use only the long portfolio. New research show that this approach does effectively capture the returns of the underlying factors.
One of the best ways to “supercharge” your gold position is with precious metal royalty and streaming companies. Think Franco-Nevada, Wheaton Precious Metals, Royal Gold and others.
Improvements in accessibility are expected to accelerate further inclusion in the near term.
