|We are skeptical about the prospects for the self-driving car, and that is the fourth Surprise. We believe that an autonomous car can operate effectively on highways, but urban driving is another situation altogether. When one considers the many unexpected instances of pedestrians crossing out of nowhere, parked cars suddenly pulling out, snow conditions and other random events, may not be up to the task. The autonomous car will also have to be in perfect working order at all times, or accidents will occur. As most cars age, they develop functional problems to which a driver can adjust, but these accommodations may not be possible if the car were driving itself. If warning lights appear on the dashboard of a self-driving vehicle, the owner may not take care of them immediately. We are not saying the technology will be permanently deferred. We believe the reality of a self-driving vehicle will take place later, rather than sooner, and that some of the companies pursuing the idea may decide that the prospects are not sufficiently favorable to continue the effort. During the development of the Surprises, we became very concerned about Iran. We knew they have been suffering economic hardship because of the sanctions imposed upon them by the United States, and our fifth Surprise was that they were planning some military action targeting the U.S. According to Donald Trump, American intelligence learned that Iran was in fact going to attack four U.S. embassies, and that he and his advisors acted preemptively to avert the "imminent" attacks on foreign embassies that Iran was contemplating. The Secretary of Defense did not confirm specific evidence as to the imminence of such an attack. In any event, Iran's retaliation so far has been mild and ineffective, but that might not continue. One option the Iranians have is to close the Strait of Hormuz and send the price of oil soaring. Oil did increase in price when the attack on Suleimani occurred, but it has settled back since. We don't think this confrontation is over. We expect more trouble ahead, but if diplomacy takes over and Iran resolves the crisis without additional hostilities, we will be gladly wrong, and the world will be a less hostile place.