There are a number of changes taking place in the investment environment and they are likely to have an influence on the returns on financial assets for some time to come. When the world’s leading economy, with more than a fifth of global GDP, does not participate in major alliances dealing with matters of security and the environment, this has longer-term investment implications.
For our third quarter webinar, we’re pleased to offer a discussion on ‘The Market Implications of Global Disarray’ with Vice Chairman Byron Wien and recently hired Investment Strategist Joe Zidle.
This business expansion has gone on for nine years and most investors think we have to be near the end. In baseball parlance you hear talk that we are in the seventh or eighth inning; nobody seems to believe we are in the second or third. Jamie Dimon of J.P. Morgan has said at a conference we’re in the sixth, which got a lot of attention.
The Great Bond Bull Market is Over June 2016 will most likely be remembered as the end of the great bond bull market. 34 years earlier in 1982, when then Fed Chair Paul Volcker turned the full force of the Federal Reserve to fighting inflation, both the 10 year Treasury yield and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) stood at approximately 15%.
Blackstone is pleased to offer the following Market Commentary by Byron Wien which shares his thinking on global economic developments, market insights and other factors that may influence investment opportunities and strategies.
We are growing accustomed to wide daily swings in the Standard & Poor’s 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Triple-digit moves in the latter and double-digit changes in the former are no longer reasons for elation or alarm. The volatility can result from an unexpected economic report or a tweet from the White House.
Many investors think that this bull market and economic expansion have gone on long enough and a bear market and a recession will take place soon. In my view, we have at least a year or two before the next major downturn in either the market or the economy, barring a major geopolitical conflict such as a shooting war with North Korea, Russia or Iran.