Read the latest Weekly Headings by CIO Larry Adam.
Despite Central Bank’s best efforts globally to stoke economic growth by pushing asset prices higher, the effect has been entirely consumed by those with actual savings, and discretionary income, available to invest.
Rates were unpredictable, central banks were active, trade was volatile but consumers were undaunted. We reflect on the major economic trends of 2019.
There is almost no willingness to face our top problems, specifically our rising debt. The economic challenges we face can’t continue, which is why I expect the Great Reset, a kind of worldwide do-over. It’s not the best choice but we are slowly ruling out all others.
The Key to Avoiding Obvious Mistakes Understanding how to value a business is the key to avoiding making obvious mistakes when purchasing or selling common stocks. When you know what your investment is worth, the market cannot take advantage of your gullibility.
Here are a few steps to separate a potential client from an existing advisor.
Much of the reaction to last week’s Inflationary Angst letter boiled down to, “Get government out of the way and the free market will work.” Others said the opposite: Government must help people even more than it already does. I wish it were that easy. Neither of those options are what we need, and today I will explain why.
A review of last month’s market-moving events across countries and asset classes.
Academic theory predicts that the volatility implied by the VIX index will be greater than the realized volatility. That difference can be thought of as an insurance premium investors are willing to pay because volatility tends to spike when stocks crash, as in the last bear market. New research confirms that investors can profit from this and that such a strategy is uncorrelated with other traditional sources of return.
Fear among bond investors is focused on rising rates, but Jeffrey Gundlach says you should worry about something more sinister. In his webcast yesterday, he also offered his updated 2020 presidential election prediction.
Positive returns across asset classes in 2019 may limit tax loss selling in closed-end funds, but we see potential long term value in select sectors where investors can still buy assets at a discount.
Over the course of 20+ years, families have been bamboozled into spending trillions on top-end colleges, while overlooking the fact that it's actually the academic major that is far more important.
U.S. stocks continue to trade near their all-time highs but recent hiccups in trade talks have re-emphasized that a deal remains elusive, decisively unpredictable, and incomplete. Key components of the first phase have yet to be put in writing and major structural issues—such as intellectual property theft and forced technology transfers—will remain unaddressed for the foreseeable future, confirming that little-to-no material progress has been made.
One of the best ways to “supercharge” your gold position is with precious metal royalty and streaming companies. Think Franco-Nevada, Wheaton Precious Metals, Royal Gold and others.
Many of you are planning an office move or renovation next year. Here’s a morsel of advice as you dial up your Corcoran realtor: Get an office without a conference room.
Yes, there is a downturn in the Global economy, numerous factors are combining together in what seems like a perfect storm of negativity to depress the global economy and quell even the hardiest of investors from any attempts at risk taking. Nothing could, or may I say should, be farther from the truth.
As Thanksgiving comes to an end, and the busy holiday shopping season begins, here are some need-to-know numbers you may have missed from this past week.
As the clock ticks toward 2020, the overall economic picture remains muddled. Ongoing trade tensions and slumping global growth have cast a cloud of uncertainty over the globe, and forward-looking return expectations continue to look less than impressive.
In the bond market, staying positive is easier said than done.
Key Points
Rick Rieder and Russ Brownback argue that – in contrast to the past decade of monetary policy lifting all economic boats at once – the years ahead are likely to be characterized by great dispersion between economies, industries and markets. Understanding that dynamic will be the name of the game for investment success.
The economic calendar is normal with a focus on housing. Some will be parsing the Fed minutes while others watch the impeachment hearings. This week’s topic may not be a media focus for the week ahead, but it gets constant attention. With a government shutdown and the debt ceiling on the agenda, let’s seize the moment and ask: Is it time to worry about debt? I suspect that many readers believe it is way past time!
The venture capital industry has created a robust pipeline of new public companies, but in our view discipline is the key to finding the best opportunities.
It’s easy to overlook government bonds today with yields so low. But their interest-rate sensitivity, or duration, can provide vital protection when riskier assets such as stocks and credit struggle.
Economic policy uncertainty and trade conflict may linger, but without a US recession, I do not anticipate significant further slowing in global growth.
If you’re an advisor looking to differentiate your practice from others, consider this article to be your first step toward a better understanding of impact investing.
In his latest book, Malcolm Gladwell turns to a theme that matters greatly to financial advisors – preventing financial fraud and abuse. It is part of his broader inquiry into how we can avoid placing our trust in the wrong people.
This is an absolute monarchy we’re talking about, after all, and so global investors should not expect to have any shareholder rights. Aramco’s board of directors will have a fiduciary duty to MBS and any future monarch, not to investors. This has some serious implications.
REIT investors can diversify through a fund or ETF tied to an index, such as the FTSE NAREIT Index. But new research shows that a factor-based approach will have superior risk-adjusted returns.
With global growth slowing and significant uncertainty around trade and politics, PIMCO’s Income Fund is taking the long-term view and positioning defensively.
Throughout the year we asked leading bond and currency managers to consider valuations, expectations and outlooks for the coming months.
How do I get my financial advisors to understand they don’t know everything about their clients?
Central banks use a common set of policy tools to achieve their inflation and employment goals – regulating the money supply and interest rates, and occasionally implementing measures such as quantitative easing. That toolkit can trace its origins to the intellectual contributions of David Ricardo, one of the earliest opponents of a gold standard.
This week’s Fed meeting started a pause in overnight rate cuts. But what will happen if yields on the long end move up?
The U.S. stock market has been hitting new all-time highs thanks to lower rates, positive earnings surprises and optimism that a resolution to the U.S.-China trade war comes sooner rather than later. But don’t let that distract you from exciting things that are happening in overseas markets, specifically in Eastern and Emerging European countries.
DOW 650,000 - Just recently CNBC ran an article touting Ron Baron's call for the Dow to reach that astronomical level in just 50-years. Problem is that the INDU should ALREADY be at 650,000 - why isn't it?
Among the 20 largest US-listed corporate DB sponsors, General Electric Company ended 2018 with the third lowest funded ratio at 75.6%.¹ This is a precipitous decline from 2007, when their funded ratio was the third highest among this group at 129.1%. Over that time period – when the average funded ratio dropped about 20 percentage points - GE's dropped by over 50 percentage points.¹ How did this happen?
Neither my company nor I are long or short Tesla shares. Why don’t we own it?
We focus on fundamentals such as moving averages and standard deviation. We follow leading indicators such as the purchasing manager’s index (PMI) and consumer confidence index. These factors are many times more effective than the headline news at shining a light on the right path.
Trade, geopolitics, and emerging markets were top of mind at the recent annual meetings
What’s the value of niche marketing? Does it limit you and make you more narrowly focused than you should be?
Negative interest rates are nothing short of a mystery; they’re likely to throw off whatever we knew about the financial world and how things worked in the past. With more than $17 trillion of global debt trading at nominal yields below zero — and about double when considering inflation — this phenomenon has prompted differing perspectives about its purpose and consequences. Howard Marks offers his in this memo, in which he discusses why negative rates have become prevalent, what implications they might have, whether they will reach the U.S., and what investors can do as they navigate these uncharted waters.
Deep U.S.-China divisions make a ‘phased’ deal our best hope for trade progress.
The primary purpose of this article on the importance of forecasting the future results of a business is offered to illustrate the conceptual validity of forecasting earnings (and every other metric) as the key to long-term investor success.
As the world transitions to a future with greater power demand, investors have the ability to capitalize on this future energy story. At Tortoise, we believe The Teal Energy Deal is the fastest, least expensive and most realistic way to reduce global carbon emissions.
The United Nations-supported PRI has made strides in changing the global attitude to responsible investing.
Tourism has traditionally helped peace and understanding spread across borders, and we’re hopeful that it will do the same today. It’s also good for commerce, especially for airlines and the travel industry in general.
