The removal of presidential term limits in China sent shock waves around the world. But the real issues that should be confronted – not just in China, but also in the US – concern the quality of a country's leadership.
He was on the receiving end of the passes from Drew Brees that led the New Orleans Saints to victory in the 2009 Super Bowl. But what distinguishes Marques Colston from his fellow ex-NFL players and other retired athletes is his successful post-professional career.
China has dropped norms to allow President Xi Jinping to remain in power after his second term ends. While worrisome at first blush, the populist turn and consolidation of power likely has near-term economic and financial market benefits, and longer-term political risks. Thornburg's Lei Wang weighs in on the populist turn in China, which is among a growing contingent of populist nations.
The bitcoin and cryptocurrency craze has everyone talking. Here's what some of the big names in the industry are saying.
The Three Prisoners problem appeared in Martin Gardner’s “Mathematical Games” column in Scientific American in 1959. It is mathematically equivalent to the “Monty Hall problem” with the car and goat replaced with freedom and execution, respectively, and equivalent to, and presumably based on, Bertrand’s box paradox.
Last year, I made a number of bold predictions about how the advisory profession is evolving, and what firms are going to have to do to stay ahead of the curve. How have my predictions held up? Here are three transformations that will force every advisory firm to adapt.
As our loyal readers know, at U.S. Global Investors we carefully monitor the price of gold. We pay close attention to the macro drivers moving the yellow metal, like government policy and cultural affinity spurring demand globally. We also monitor the micro drivers, like company management and quant factors that make one gold stock superior to the next.
EM ETFs suffered deviations in their market prices relative to their net asset values, with their total returns materially underperforming the broad emerging market index.
On inflation and Fed policy, Jeffrey Gundlach disagreed with comments made by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. But Gundlach’s views were in line with the consensus on those key issues – inflation will not spike dramatically higher and the Fed will continue with its planned rate hikes.
In this issue, Research Affiliates discusses positioning for potentially volatile markets and the link between equity valuations and macroeconomic conditions.
It has been said that an investor will experience three secular bull markets in their life time. In the first one you will not have enough money to take advantage of it. In the third one you will be too old to take the amount of risk to really take advantage of it.
Larry Swedroe and Kevin Grogan have created a near-perfect guide for practitioners and investors who are concerned about prospective returns from stocks and bonds in the current environment. The book explains how to think about the value of diversification and presents at least five novel strategies with exhaustive attention to detail.
Not necessarily the Fed, whose own research suggests wage growth is not a reliable indicator of future inflation. But markets, it appears, aren’t sure what to think.
“Smoot-Hawley Tariff was an act implementing protectionist trade policies sponsored by Senator Reed Smoot and Representative Willis C. Hawley and was signed into law on June 17, 1930. The act raised U.S. tariffs on over 20,000 imported goods.”. . . Wikipedia
Municipal bonds might not be the first thing that comes to mind when you think of a sexy investment. They don’t typically command news headlines like the stock market or bitcoin. That doesn’t mean investors should disregard short-term munis. In fact, munis play a very important role in any serious portfolio. Below are four big reasons why you should get excited about muni bonds.
There are logical explanations for why the size premium may have shrunk. But there also remain simple, intuitive, risk-based explanations for why the premium should persist.
Acquisitions have the elements of a zero sum game. Both buyer and seller need to feel that they are getting a good deal. The seller has to convince his board and shareholders that they are selling at high (unfairly good) price. The buyer needs to convince his constituents that they are getting a bargain. Remember, both are talking about the same asset.
We’d all like to get more done in our day. Recently, best-selling author Dan Pink outlined three powerful, research-backed ways to improve your productivity.
Every month in the immediate aftermath of the release of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) I put together a small deck together for Schwab’s Operating Committee highlighting the overall data and some of the key takeaways.
What’s the most difficult question you get asked by prospects? Most advisors say it is how to justify fees and value. The problem is that very few advisors know the right way to answer this.
Markets have calmed somewhat, but make no mistake: Volatility is back. Russ discusses quality stocks can help in this environment.
Blackstone is pleased to offer the following Market Commentary by Byron Wien which shares his thinking on global economic developments, market insights and other factors that may influence investment opportunities and strategies.
The House Financial Services Committee has shifted Fed Chair Powell’s monetary policy testimony to Tuesday, February 27.
At the request of The Wall Street Journal, over the last month we conducted a series of polls asking our readers to forecast the returns for the next 10 years for a series of asset classes. The results are below.
What a great question! I recently reread the above quote from Bob Prechter. It’s an excellent quip and virtually everybody can identify with it. On the surface the question seems laughable; who can’t accept huge gains? But in order to set yourself up for such gains you have to possess the courage to take an oversize position and maybe even leverage it.
Many investors are now willing to sacrifice liquidity in the search for higher yields, more attractive risk-adjusted returns and the flexibility to hedge against downside risk.
Looking long-term, there are mounting risks involving debt that make gold appear very attractive right now as a safe haven and portfolio diversifier.
In our view, the prospective low-return environment calls for a capital-efficient approach that pairs actively managed bonds with passive or enhanced equities in target-date, core and retirement-income allocations.
Do you have any tips on the best way to coach and mentor someone who is the heir apparent in my firm? I have a young man who is sharp, highly credentialed and very good with clients. The problem is he rubs people in the firm the wrong way.
As readers of the missives know, the three sectors we have really liked are Financials, Technology, and Industrials. Therefore, we were excited to arrive in Boston last week to see portfolio manager (PMs) and renew friendships.
With Congress’ passage of an additional $368 billion in federal spending over the next two years on February 9, our government budget deficits could approach, and perhaps exceed, $1 trillion annually for the next several years. That’s very scary!
After falling into their first correction in two years, US equities regained half of their loses in just 6 days. The rebound has been strong enough and persistent enough to suggest that it has further to run. Sentiment and volatility backwardation support that view. However, a low retest over the coming weeks is still a viable risk.
In a new quarterly letter to GMO's institutional clients, head of asset allocation Ben Inker considers the hypothetical question posed by chief investment strategist Jeremy Grantham in his third-quarter 2017 letter, "What should you do if you are tasked with managing Stalin's pension portfolio?" ("Don't Act Like Stalin! But maybe hire portfolio managers that do?").
The 2018 Software Survey, conducted by Advisor Perspectives, Joel Bruckenstein at T3, and my firm, Inside Information, offered by far the most comprehensive data on the advisor tech landscape ever collected. In all, we received 1,554 useable responses, representing firms very small to very large, across a broad spectrum of experience in the business.
We believe it’s time to take a good hard look at the municipal bond market, because what was true 10 years ago, very well may not be true today.
In a record-breaking sprint from all-time highs to an “official” correction, the “short vol” trade unwinding exacerbates an initially fundamentals-driven decline.
So most know we took one of our South Florida speaking tours last week. Such tours consist of meeting with portfolio managers, presentations to clients of Raymond James, branch visits with our financial advisors, doing the media thing, well you get the idea.
Investors worried about wage and inflation data should appreciate the underlying strength of the economy, not to mention strong corporate earnings. The market volatility is creating better entry points for longer-term investors.
Active equity performance depends on the stock-picking skill and market conditions. Recent academic research confirms that returns to stock picking rises in tandem with increased stock return cross-sectional dispersion and skewness, along with greater market volatility.
It has been a long time since we had something that resembles normal interest rates and normal economics. Some even called the financial environment we live in as the “New Normal”. Retirees and savers have suffered the most during this prolonged low rate period.
Monday’s monster stock selloff is exhibit A for why I frequently recommend a 10 percent weighting in gold, with 5 percent in bullion and jewelry, the other 5 percent in high-quality gold stocks, mutual funds and ETFs.
The financial advisory industry is full of handy insights when it comes to web design. The slightest difference, even if it’s not clearly visible, can be a game changer in such a competitive industry.
Hearing the latest reports on growing number of breakaways and the rise of the advisory business model would make you think that there is a sudden revolution in the industry. This couldn’t be further from reality.
Valentine’s Day is a huge commercial holiday for diamond companies and florists. It is great for financial advisors, too. Here are some ideas to get the love connection going with some new prospects this February 14.
Advisors should focus on establishing trust with potential clients, but what happens when all that person wants to do is talk about risk?
Value in Short-Term Bonds: The sharp rise in short-term rates in 2017 has created attractive valuations on the front end of the investment-grade curve. If the curve could speak, almost certainly the shorter maturities would now be shouting, Look at me---look at me! Not since fall 2008 have investors been able to earn 2.0% or more on high-quality, short-term bonds such as 2-year Treasury notes.
We have long been big fans of the books about Sherlock Holmes ever since our misbegotten youth. Strangely enough, being a strategist/analyst is much like being a detective. One has to gather the evidence, pour through it, decipher it, eliminate the “noise,” and come to a conclusion that tips the odds of making money in our favor.
After a fantastic year, concerns are growing about a potential downturn in the stock markets. At times like these, it’s especially important to focus on investing strategies that can deliver a smoother pattern of long-term returns.
The macro data from the past month continues to mostly point to positive growth. On balance, the evidence suggests the imminent onset of a recession is unlikely.
After helping more than 150 financial advisors write their marketing materials, I keep seeing a common mistake. They write in “financialese.”
