It is critical to understand that 2026 will not deliver certainty. Instead, investors should focus and make decisions based on probabilities backed by data, earnings trends, policy shifts, and macro signals.
Today we continue anticipating 2026, this time shifting for the first part of the letter from economic issues to geopolitics before making some of my personal general forecasts.
The Bank of Japan’s recent policy shift is sending shockwaves through global markets. Headlines this week highlight the dollar’s tumble against the yen and renewed chatter of an unwind to the massive yen carry trade, estimated at over $500 billion.
The OBBBA brings 10 tax changes for 2026. Some provisions benefit taxpayers while others impose new restrictions. Our Bill Cass shares the highlights.
Silver has rallied sharply over the past six months, outperforming many major asset classes and even gold. While geopolitical risk, easing monetary conditions, and inflation-related demand have supported precious metals broadly, silver’s move has been especially pronounced—bringing both its drivers and potential constraints into focus.
While our outlook for the municipal bond market in 2026 is positive overall, we have identified five risks that we believe should be on investors' radar.
Long trips rarely end at the airport. We arrive, but our internal clocks lag behind; the first day back is spent acclimating to the new landscape. The global economy enters 2026 in much the same way. Shifting rules of commerce, political stoppages and patchy data have left decision makers disoriented.
LPL Research explores the drivers behind the rally in metals, the associated risks, and the outlook for their durability.
The U.S. economy continues to display a complex mix of resilience and persistence. As markets brace for next week’s FOMC meeting, this snapshot breaks down the latest shifts in GDP, inflation, and consumer behavior.
As we enter 2026, the U.S. economic momentum continues based on the foundation of a solid private sector with fiscal and monetary policies also contributing to growth. As we refine our global asset allocation, we maintain a diversified overweight stance on U.S. equities despite relatively high valuations.
Year-end S&P 500 price targets implicitly assume continuity and fail to recognize volatility and macro forces that affect markets throughout any given year.
Economists have company when it comes to being upbeat. The consensus economic outlook has led to optimism from analysts, who are forecasting strong earnings growth.
Financial stress often shows up in the bond market well before it becomes visible elsewhere. Equity markets can remain calm while pressure quietly builds underneath the surface.
The Trump administration said it’s canceling almost $30 billion of financing from the Energy Department’s green bank after reviewing transactions approved under former President Joe Biden.
Investors were thrown another tariff curveball, with the U.S. administration declaring that unless a deal for the U.S. to acquire Greenland can be reached, a 10% tariff will be imposed on eight European countries (Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Finland) effective Feb. 1.
When investors think about risk in equity portfolios, the usual suspects come to mind: market risk, sector risk or maybe even macroeconomic risk. But lurking beneath the surface is a less obvious, often underestimated threat—style and factor risk.
Looking ahead to 2026, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Municipal Bond Director Ben Barber says there are a few key factors that will likely shape the municipal bond market.
With 2025 in the books, it will be a difficult year to top for fixed income exchange-traded funds (ETFs), but Morningstar is predicting more excitement to come. That should keep fixed income investors fixated on what new developments the space brings this year.
Our view from the portfolio management desk is that there seems to be a concurrent affordability crisis in the public stock markets as well. The biggest names appear to be “priced for perfection” at this moment.
U.S. fourth-quarter earnings season began with major banks reporting results that were generally stronger than expected. Most large banks beat earnings forecasts, with many also exceeding revenue expectations, reinforcing our view that the U.S. economy remains in a healthy state.
US stocks extended gains on President Donald Trump’s retreat from tariff threats while traders’ appetite for artificial intelligence bets returned.
Trend-following funds are starting 2026 with fresh momentum, outperforming stocks and bonds after a year of false starts.
The key point, in our view, is that this combination of shocks is not likely to be an isolated occurrence in 2026 or beyond.
As the new year begins, one market theme is already attracting plenty of attention, and that is the dispersion and broadening out in the stock market that has occurred during the first two weeks of trading.
US equities reversed early losses during Donald Trump’s speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos when the US president said he didn’t want to use excessive force to acquire Greenland
In the last 10-plus years, investors have grown accustomed to Japanese financial assets lagging their global counterparts.
PJM is the name given to the largest regional US electricity grid, stretching from Chicago to the Chesapeake. It is also synonymous with the AI-power surge, being home to Virginia’s ‘datacenter alley’ and seeing recent big increases in bills tied to concerns that the electricity needs of artificial intelligence will swamp supply.
Seven hundred billion dollars. That’s the figure being floated as the potential price tag for acquiring Greenland, according to recent reporting. Call me skeptical, but I don’t think anyone’s cutting a $700 billion check anytime soon. For comparison’s sake, that’s more than half of the Defense Department’s entire 2024 budget.
Markets pushed to new highs again last week as investors looked past headline inflation noise and focused on improving breadth beneath the surface.
Several dynamics have converged to drive silver higher, including spillover effects from the gold bull market, steady industrial demand, surging investment demand, inflation, and geopolitical uncertainty. However, one factor is the key driver – there isn’t enough metal.
We are in the midst of a tech-led investment boom supporting what some think is a transformational technology. The annualized pace of U.S. productivity growth was 5% in the third quarter of last year, well above the long-term average.
In order to develop prudent spending plans for clients that are consistent with their spending goals, advisors should employ reasonable client-specific LPP assumptions. The three-step process and tools highlighted in this article can help advisors get started.
For advisors breaking away to start their own practice, there’s no avoiding the risks that come with entrepreneurship — but in the current economic climate that includes high inflation, market volatility and heightened uncertainty — advisors need to be doubly prepared when going out on their own.
Interest rates do not exist to punish borrowers. They exist to price risk. When lenders are told they can’t charge more than 10 percent, even when the market risk calls for a higher rate, they don’t suddenly become more generous.
AI productivity gains will demand active solutions, not government gifts. Skill development, apprenticeships, employer-based training, wage insurance, and mobility support. These tools address displacement directly, while UBI does not.
Today, we continue my 2026 economic and market forecast. Last week, I described our current environment as The Bipolar Economy, and noted that the real goal here isn’t to tell you what will happen. It’s to help you know what could happen so you can be prepared.
We expect another generally good year for bond returns this year, but even the best-laid plans can go awry when circumstances change. Here are four risks to our outlook.
For investors navigating an uncertain macro landscape, avoiding the wrong narratives may matter more than predicting the right numbers.
Precious metals surged out of the gate to begin 2026, not dissimilar to how they closed out 2025. Gold has already made two record highs this year alone, is currently trading above $4,600 per ounce, and is up over 6% in 2026.
As the second half of January begins, the U.S. economy presents a picture of cooling inflation and resilient consumer activity.
Global credit markets are running at their hottest in two decades, prompting some of the world’s biggest money managers including Aberdeen Investments and Pimco to warn against complacency.
While the breaking news regarding the Fed receiving subpoenas from the Department of Justice will no doubt garner the lion’s share of Fed-related headlines in the days and weeks ahead, we wanted to roll the clock back and delve into what the markets should be looking at in terms of upcoming traditional monetary policy decisions.
Taking time away due to illness is never ideal. Upon return to school or work, we are greeted with all the tasks we did not complete while incapacitated. The recovery may feel worse than the disease.
Major tax legislation passed in 2025 represents the most sweeping changes to the tax code since the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) in 2017. In addition to extending current tax brackets and rates and introducing new tax deductions, the law creates new savings accounts for minors known as Trump Accounts.
Nominal thinking in investing, a form of the "money illusion" bias, is the failure to account for inflation's erosion of purchasing power. The primary problems with this approach are overestimating real returns, misjudging true wealth, and making poor long-term investment decisions based on misleading nominal figures.
EMs are entering 2026 from a position of renewed strength. A weakening U.S. dollar, improving fundamentals, and broadening country and sector leadership have created a favorable backdrop for investors—and we believe
It’s a brave new world for educational savers — and none too soon. In 2025, lawmakers outdid themselves by expanding ways families can help their children or grandchildren obtain a degree or certificate.
Following strong 2025 returns, high quality fixed income continues to offer attractive yields and global diversification at a time of stretched equity valuations and tight credit spreads.
Last year, gold rose by over 64 percent, setting 53 new record highs along the way. Silver gained just under 148 percent. Platinum’s price increased by 125.9 percent. Palladium was up just over 80 percent.
Despite strong U.S. equity returns and continued enthusiasm around AI, 2025 marked a turning point in market leadership. Paul Vella examines the fading dominance of mega-cap tech, the resurgence of international equities, and the role diversification played in delivering more durable outcomes for investors.
