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Letters to the Editor
by Various,
A number of readers responded to Adam Kanzer’s article, Exposing False Claims about Socially Responsible Investing, which appeared last week. Kanzer’s article was in response to Adam Apt’s article, Measuring the Cost of Socially Responsible Investing, which appeared the week before. Several readers responded to other articles as well.
Emerging Markets Mid-Year Pulse Check
Global economic growth hasnt been terribly inspiring so far in the first half of the year, but many investors have nevertheless been inspired to pour more assets into the equity markets, some of which have surged to record highs. As we hit the mid-year point, now seems like a good time to take a pulse check of emerging markets and assess our prognosis.
What's Capping Capital Spending?
by Milton Ezrati of Lord Abbett,
Now that housing has at last begun to make a contribution to the economic recovery, the pace of capital spending seems to have ebbed. To some extent, the slowed pace of such spending reasonably reflects the economys still-more-than-ample production capacity. Reasonable as this seems, the slowdown does come as a disappointing change from the unusually strong growth earlier in the recovery. Now, looking forward, the prospect is for this slowed growth to continue, for a while at least.
Why It Pays to Invest in Emerging Market Dividend-Payers
An unexpected change of heart happened in May that you might not have heard about. After years of resisting any path other than its rigorous course, Germany announced it is backing off from pure austerity and is now planning to spend billions of euros to stimulate the economies of Europe.
The Risk of Government Policies and the Rationing of Retirement
by Jason Hsu of Research Affiliates,
In late April, a group of leading economists and investment practitioners assembled in La Jolla, California, for Research Affiliates 2013 Advisory Panel. Our theme this year touched on two topics that have been front-and-center in recent public debates: the risk of government intervention and the potential rationing of retirement.
But We Want Goldilocks-Like Growth
by Blaine Rollins of 361 Capital,
While the equity markets would enjoy a bit of the great rotation out of the 20+ year outperformance in bonds and into equities, the move in May has been too much, too quick for even equity investors to stomach. So while the Long Treasury ETF (TLT) fell -6.8% in May, the size of the move even scared investors in REITs (IYR), Junk Bonds (JNK/HYG), and Utilities (XLU).
More Than a Feeling
by Team of AdvisorShares,
Tangible signs of fundamental weakness are appearing everywhere, yet financial market participants are simply choosing to ignore these signs. There remains a significant disconnect between the real economy and financial markets. Read this paper by Peritus Asset Management to learn how to navigate the weak fundamental picture in what they believe to be the beginning of a 15-20 year positive technical backdrop, which will put yield generating assets, such as high yield bonds, in the sweet spot.
Driving with the Doors Off, Part II
About ten months ago, I wrote about my new bulldozer-yellow Jeep Wrangler, comparing the sensation of Driving with the Doors Off to investing in the New Normal, or as I like to call it, a slow growth for as far as the eyes can see environment. While the pavement had always been a mere twelve inches beneath my feet, Driving with The Doors Off made the experience far more real, far more alive, and far more aware of the risks that had always been there. In the New Normal it feels like we are always and everywhere just one small pothole away from the next economic disaster.
Harleys and Leather Jackets
We are just about done with Proxy Season and with summer in full swing, there is nothing more that we would like to do than kick back and indulge in the 75 pages of shame, greed, ignorance, and political correctness-with only the occasional bright light of shareholder friendly corporate governance-that make up SEC Form 14A, aka the Proxy Statement. I would postulate that this document remains an underrated and under-read part of the investment puzzle as it is the factual record of managements incentives.
Weekly Market Commentary
by Team of Tuttle Tactical Management,
Yesterday ended the streak of up Tuesdays in the market while last week saw an acceleration in the the "crush anything that pays any sort of yield" theme. Treasuries, high yield bonds, preferred shares, Utilities, REITs, etc. all got killed. At this point this just seems like the weird type of dislocation that happens sometimes in markets where money just doesnt want to go anywhere except under a mattress.
Woody Brocks Challenge to Krugman and the Keynesians
by Bob Veres,
A polarizing choice confronts policymakers. Either they side with Paul Krugman and the Keynesians, and advocate for aggressive fiscal measures to stimulate Americas economic growth rate, or they align themselves with the so-called austerians, who argue that budget cutbacks are necessary to eliminate deficits. A third option is rarely discussed. Its most outspoken proponent, Horace Woody Brock, says that America should continue to borrow, but spend wisely ? and develop new policy instruments that would eliminate asset bubbles and stimulate economic activity.
Vincent Reinhart on Debt and Growth in the U.S. and Japan
by Robert Huebscher,
High debt levels translate to slower growth, according to Vincent Reinhart. That conclusion will be disheartening to those who jumped on the errors several University of Massachusetts scholars found last month in Carmen Reinhart (Vincent’s wife) and Ken Rogoff’s research. But Vincent Reinhart is the author, along with his wife and Rogoff, of a study published in 2012 that documented the degree to which high debt-to-GDP levels correlate with slower economic growth in developed countries.
The Gold Bull vs The Paper Tiger
Thats all, folks. One look at the headlines will tell you the gold bull market is officially over: the stock market is booming, a modest recovery of the US economy is underway, and the dollar is dominating the forex. Time to sell your bullion and get back into US stocks!
Equities Hit Pause
by Bob Doll of Nuveen Asset Management,
Stocks and other risk assets struggled last week, with the S&P 500 declining 1.11%.1 Equities finished lower on Friday, the final trading session of May. The decline trimmed Mays gains and sealed the second consecutive weekly decline for U.S. equities. The S&P increased 2.34% for the month and has gained 4.31% this quarter and 15.37% for the year.1
And That's the Week That Was
by Ron Brounes of Brounes & Associates,
And the streak continues. (The monthly winning streak that is.) While stocks have drifted lower each of the past two weeks, the Dow has surged for six straight months and the S&P 500 now stands at seven and counting. In fact, much of the weeks losses came in the final hour(s) of trading as investors took profits for the month and positioned their portfolios for the summer. No news from the Fed yet, but the bond debates continue. Housing remains strong on the economic front, but next weeks data will go a long way toward setting the tone for the future.
Is QE Really THAT Important?
The punditry has decided that anything good happening is actually bad. It is all just a sugar high based on Quantitative Easing and government stimulus and that talk of winding down or tapering QE is negative. So the latest fear is that any good data on growth is actually bad, because it means the Fed will wind down QE. They say the economy cant possibly grow on its own without support from the Fed and Ben Bernanke.
Getting Better Returns from Dividend Stocks - Look for Growth
While some investors have begun to return to US Equity (funds) there is still a large amount of money on the sidelines. End of year 2012 data shows investors have trillions in money markets and savings accounts. While there is no guarantee all that money will make its way back into the market the matriculation has begun.
What's the Answer to Unprecedented Policies and Ultralow Rates?
So what?s the answer to unprecedented central bank policies that have been driving stocks higher and ultralow rates? I believe investors need to stick to a strategy that includes dividend-paying stocks that offer the opportunity for both income and growth.
Has the Fat Lady Started to Sing on the Housing Market?
As decision makers we are continually looking for clues from economic activity in order to adjust portfolios. The beauty of following business cycle sequences is the value from anticipating financial market leadership changes. A major beneficiary of this four year old business recovery has been housing and housing related stocks.
And That's the Week That Was
by Ron Brounes of Brounes & Associates,
All good things must come to an end (hopefully just temporarily). After a nice month-long weekly winning streak, stocks gave back some ground as investors over-analyzed Fed comments and worried about future monetary policy. (The stimulus will end at some pointthats not necessarily a bad thing.) Japan took the over-analysis the hardest as its market suffered a serious setback, though the rally for the year had been significant and some watchers expected a pullback at some point (just not all in one day).
Understanding Gold Market Dynamics
by John Browne of Euro Pacific Capital,
To an extent that reveals a thorough misunderstanding of the market forces, the financial media has failed to consider the different motivations and beliefs that drive the different types of investors who are active in the gold market. By treating the gold market as if it were comprised of just one type of investor, analysts have drawn false conclusions about the recent volatility.
Are We There Yet?
I started writing my first book, Active Value Investing: Making Money in Range-Bound Markets, in 2005; finished it in 2007; and published the second, an abridged version of the first (The Little Book of Sideways Markets), in 2010. In both books I made the case that there is a very high probability that we are in the midst of a secular sideways market a market that goes up and down, with a lot of cyclical volatility, but ends up going nowhere for a long time.
Weekly Market Commentary
by Team of Tuttle Tactical Management,
Last week we talked about the market being overbought in the short term, so the three day selloff (Wednesday-Friday) was to be expected. The media will blame the Fed but they didnt tell us anything we didnt already know. Bottom line, when the market gets extremely overbought traders will use anything and everything as an excuse to take profits. Interestingly, last week was the first streak of three down days this year. The S&P 500 seemed to find some support at 1640.
The Perfect Team Meeting to Start Your Week
by Dan Richards,
A focused, productive meeting with your team is the single most powerful way to start your week. Despite this, many teams dont have those regular sessions to start the week ? and where meetings do take place, they often underperform versus their potential. For your team to believe that Monday meetings are a good use of their time, those meetings should achieve five goals.
Economic Climate Change & the Long-Term View on Yields
Will rates rise? It’s a logical question. US Treasury yields have been in a secular downward trend since the 1980s and almost frozen at historic lows for the last several months. While recent cyclical improvements suggest the US economy is heating up, we do not expect interest rates to start soaring to record highs. The interest rate environment will eventually undergo climate change, but the process will be gradual. There are secular headwinds cooling rates, and we expect them to persist for years to come.
4 Market Risks Worth Worrying About
by Russ Koesterich of iShares Blog,
The risk of a US slowdown Not discounted in US valuations. While US valuations currently look reasonable, theyre predicated on a US economy growing at around 2% to 2.5%. The risk of slower growth is not priced into the market. If US economic data continues to disappoint, and we get a growth hiccup in the second or third quarter, then were likely to see some US market weakness.
Bifurcation Blues
Bifurcation. A very technical sounding word. It merely means ?a division into two parts?, which is what we are witnessing in many areas related to investment, both macro and micro. And it is exhibiting to value investors those areas to avoid and the most attractive to embrace. And giving rise to a wide range of disparate opinions among economic and investment professionals as to what outcomes are likely. Needless to say, we have our own strong views.
ING Fixed Income Perspectives May 2013
How do you like them apples? By pointing out some Excel blunders in the data of Harvard economists Reinhart and Rogoff, a UMass-Amherst grad student appears to have gotten their number and in the process discredited their seminal work touting the merits of austerity. Though Good Will Hunting fans may be amused to see a couple of Harvardians get their comeuppance, you don?t need the titular character?s wicked smarts to deduce that harsh government spending cuts may not be the best way to pick up your economy.
Europe's Lost Keynesians
by Kenneth Rogoff of Project Syndicate,
There is no magic Keynesian bullet for the eurozones woes, despite what many commentators and much of the public seem to believe. The eurozones difficulties stem from European financial and monetary integration having gotten too far ahead of actual political, fiscal, and banking union not exactly a problem that Keynes tried to address.
Making Investment Grade Is Only the Beginning for Turkey
Its been a few months since I was in Istanbul and wrote about Turkeys exciting cultural and economic transformation, and the country is still making headlines. The Emerging Europe Funds (EUROX) portfolio manager, Tim Steinle, has been very bullish on Turkey for multiple reasons, including its young growing demographic, its fiscal and monetary policies geared toward growth, and its entrepreneurial mindset and pro-business policies, to name just a few.
If You Didn't Buy That Powerball Ticket...
by Blaine Rollins of 361 Capital,
So onward and upward. What signals should Bulls be on the lookout for? Change in breadth (Up v. Down Volumes, Advancers v. Decliners), Signs of distribution (Sharp down days accompanied by large % increases in trading volumes), Change in leadership away from RISKON sectors (dont want SmallCaps, Financials, Industrials, Transports or Housing to lag)...
How to Turn the ECB Straggler into a Central Bank Pacemaker
by Myles Bradshaw of PIMCO,
In our opinion, the ECB will be most effective if it can design a programme that helps banks deleverage more quickly to stimulate growth in the real economy. To have a meaningful impact on Europes broken transmission mechanism, any ECB programme needs to not only lower the cost of credit, but also be regionally tailored or big enough to be effective. Long-term investors should remain focused on the quality of issuers balance sheets rather than simply taking more risk because of lower prospective returns.
Cyprus and the Eurozone...Still Stuck in the Middle
The debt crisis in the Eurozone turned another chapter as Cyprus finally reached the point of requiring a bailout from the European Union. The wisdom of Gerry Raffertys hit song Stuck in the Middle with You which was written in 1973, rings true today as we watch the EU and the European Central Bank navigate the mess in Europe. With each attempt at containment, there appears some plot twist, the proposed Cyprus bank bailout is no exception. While the bailout of Cyprus and its banks is not large in size, only 10 billion, relative to the Cyprus economy, it is significant.
Asia Brief: China's Car Fleet The Largest in the World?
Car sales in China have grown rapidly since 2009 and it is on course to outstrip the US in terms of the size of its car fleet by the end of this decade. This presents a major challenge to the Chinese government, which must balance its peoples happiness and political stability with economic development in an environment which has already been compromised. The momentum of demand for new passenger vehicles is likely to make air quality worse and Beijing has introduced emissions and efficiency standards to address the problem.
Capitalism and Democracy
In the Italian elections, the party that showed the strongest results was the Five Star Movement, led by the comedian Beppe Grillo. Despite this strong showing, the party failed to form a government and refused to participate in any coalitions. This decision not to participate in the political process has been exhibited by other protest groups, such as Occupy Wall Street, the Israeli Tent Movement, and the Spanish Indignant movement.
How Responding to Client Requests is Like Returning a Sweater to Sears
by Dan Richards,
A source of frustration for many advisors is the amount of time that’s consumed by mundane administrative requests ? things that clients don’t value and chew up a ton of time. But there is a way to take the time spent on routine matters and turn it into something that clients see as delivering quantifiable value. A veteran advisor told me how he did exactly that ? and enhanced relationships with the accountants for key clients in the process.
General Electric Looks Like It's Becoming The Shareholder-Friendly Company It Once Was
by Chuck Carnevale of F.A.S.T. Graphs,
General Electric (GE) was once revered as one of the bluest of all blue-chip companies in the world. During its glory days, GE was respected as an industrial conglomerate that manufactured some of the worlds best jet engines, locomotives, appliances and even the highly regarded General Electric light bulb. However, as best I can determine, the roots of General Electrics ultimate demise were established in 1930 when the company, responding to the great depression, formed GE Finance in order to help their customers finance GE appliances over time.
A Cry for Help from Income Investors
Confronted with the stark realities of income investing now, affluent investors all over the world are rethinking their approach, notes Legg Mason’s just-released Global Income Survey. Yet the Survey also found income investors hungry for more knowledge and ideas -- creating opportunities for savvy financial advisors.
Results 9,351–9,400
of 10,168 found.
