The Federal Reserve (Fed) kept interest rates unchanged after its Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting earlier this month. Although investors and economists largely expected this outcome, stocks and bonds sold off immediately after Fed chair Jerome Powell’s post-meeting news conference.

BlackRock Inc.’s Rick Rieder, the firm’s top bond-market executive who was passed over by President Donald Trump to be chair of the Federal Reserve, is pursuing investor cash for his first hedge fund in years.

Faster productivity growth lifts earnings, improves the long-run fiscal arithmetic, and allows the economy to run stronger without recreating the inflation regime of 2022. Historically, markets are slow to recognize when the supply side of the economy has improved. This time should be no different. The productivity story is more durable than this week’s Iran developments, which is dominate trading over the near term.

With apologies if this is the tenth investment piece you’ve read this week about the impact of the Iran War on asset markets, but we wanted to share our thoughts on what’s going on with our investors. First a recap. The S&P 500 is down 5.4% since the February 28, 2026 start of the Iran War.

As 2026 unfolds, market leadership is shifting in ways that go beyond the usual sector rotation. While AI-driven growth fueled recent gains, rising capital expenditures, energy demands, and valuation pressure are forcing a reassessment across both public and private markets. At the same time, economic data—particularly beneath headline job growth—suggests a more uneven expansion than many expected.

Since hostilities began in the Middle East three weeks ago, I’ve urged investors to stay calm and resist the temptation to panic-sell. While I still stand by that advice, it’s important to point out that this conflict isn’t resolving as quickly as initially expected.

The key swing factor remains oil prices. If the conflict ends within this window, we still expect only limited impacts on our economic and asset‑class outlooks.

With liquidity and credit stress in the private credit market rising, we must consider whether the Fed might once again ignore its mandates to backstop exuberant markets.

When we think of the U.S. government's finances, we often focus on the massive debt. But what about the assets? What does Uncle Sam actually own, and which asset is the largest?

How much wealthier are Americans since the Great Recession? While a look at the headlines shows a staggering 211% increase in household net worth since 2009, adjusting for inflation tells a much different story.

Recent market performance for US consumer-discretionary stocks has been so ugly that it may be a great time to buy.

Let me lay out the case for what should be the answer. Today we will explore how long this condition could last and what we can do about. I think it will make for interesting letter.

Markets have already priced the most visible consequences of a disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices have surged, gasoline prices are moving higher, and inflation concerns have re-emerged. The initial market reaction has been the most visible but least revealing.

In February, market sentiment was shaped by escalating US-Iran geopolitical tensions and sector-specific selloffs driven by concerns about AI’s potential disruption to existing business models.

Jeffrey Sherman of DoubleLine provided a candid assessment of the Federal Reserve's current trajectory and fixed income at Exchange.

Modern markets have gotten used to central bank support whenever the global economy wobbles. But as the world confronts a fresh energy shock unfolding against brittle labor markets, investors need to prepare themselves for the possibility that central bankers won’t have their backs — quite the opposite.

Last week, on March 19th, the S&P 500 closed below its 200-DMA for the first time since May 2025. The first instinct is to panic as media headlines talk about bear markets and financial crisis events. However, as we will explore today, the data says it depends entirely on the type of break: sustained or brief.

Many investors think about getting out of the stock market when it gets bumpy. But history shows that staying invested over the long term has resulted in positive gains.

he shock to global oil supply this month has already been declared the greatest ever by the International Energy Agency, so it’s natural to draw parallels with the great shocks of the 1970s. But numerous other factors determine how serious the impact of any given hit to supply will be on the global economy.

The past three weeks have been unsettling, and not just for markets, but for anyone paying attention to what is happening in the world.

Gold was the highest-returning major asset class of 2025, advancing approximately 64% on the year. Its appreciation was supported by multiple reinforcing factors: elevated geopolitical uncertainty driving safe-haven demand, U.S. dollar weakness, sustained central bank accumulation, and strong inflows into gold-backed ETFs.

Confidence among global stock-market investors, who largely kept their cool in the face of an escalating conflict in the Middle East, is starting to wear thin.

Global markets stood on edge as the conflict in Iran upended energy markets and muddied the outlook for the global economy. Interest rate markets repriced as market participants processed the notion that hostilities and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz could last longer than expected.

US futures extended a drop on Friday as earlier hopes for a quick resolution to the war in the Middle East faded. Meanwhile, traders braced for a historic amount of March options expiry.

“Smoke on the Water, Fire in the Sky,” the iconic Deep Purple refrain, endures because it captures a familiar dynamic: threats appear on the horizon before the heat arrives.

As expected, there was no rate cut at today’s meeting, but changes to economic projections and comments at the press conference gave some light into how the Fed is processing political and geopolitical events, and how those events are shaping the Fed’s outlook.

A properly functioning Strait of Hormuz holds the keys to clarity around the growth, inflation, and market shock that has stemmed from the war in the Middle East.

The Federal Reserve held the policy rate steady in March at 3.5%–3.75%, a widely expected outcome as policymakers navigated an unusually complex macro backdrop.

Silver had a phenomenal 2025, more than doubling from around $30/oz to above $70 by late December, and the rally continued into the new year.

The Fed simultaneously needs to hold interest rates higher (and arguably raise them) to deal with increasing inflation pressure while also needing to cut interest rates due to the massive Debt Black Hole warping the economy.

Engaging with client family members may seem tricky, but it can start with simple questions to the client first. In fact, asking your client about the personalities and desires of their loved ones may be a way of deepening your understanding of your client’s financial needs.

The federal funds rate will remain 3.5% to 3.75%. The 'dot plot' still projects a single rate cut this year, and the Fed sees slightly stronger economic growth and inflation.

Gold sank for a seventh session as the escalating war in the Middle East drove oil prices higher and reduced prospects for a US interest-rate cut in the near term. Silver slumped more than 10%.

The FOMC held the fed funds rate at 3.50%–3.75% for a second straight meeting as policymakers weigh slowing growth, persistent inflation, with core PCE at 3.1%, and geopolitical uncertainty from the Middle East.

China’s underappreciated equity market and energy resilience amid current geopolitical tensions warrants consideration, according to Franklin Templeton ETFs’ Dina Ting. In this article, she discusses the different factors that underpin her views.

Royce Investment Partners: Co-CIO Francis Gannon discusses how US small caps remain market leaders even as volatility and uncertainty are on the rise.

Despite gold’s sideways performance in recent weeks, UBS still expects gold to gain 20 percent from its current price this year.

Now that investors are aware of withdrawal limits, they’ll have a greater incentive to always ask for the maximum, requiring further asset sales that will depress returns — which, in turn, will encourage more withdrawals.

Historically, major geopolitical or economic crises, such as the war against Iran, have prompted investors to sell riskier assets and buy “safe-haven” investments whose values were expected to remain stable or even rise amid the disruptions.

Federal Reserve officials left interest rates unchanged and continued to expect one rate cut this year as they acknowledged increased uncertainty due to war in the Middle East.

The advisors who build the strongest client relationships aren't necessarily the ones with the most resources. They're the ones who help clients feel the value of those resources consistently. You have more to offer your clients than you're probably telling them. Be bold. Tell the story.

The recent 30% surge in crude oil prices has led many observers—drawing on memories of past energy crises—to immediately warn of recession. That may ultimately prove correct, but we’re cautious about narrative-driven, back-of-the-envelope predictions.

It’s been a volatile stretch for US equities as Wall Street tries to wrap its arms around the war in Iran. But with the fighting now in its third week, investors are becoming more sanguine about the stock market as signs emerge that the worst may be over.

US stock futures extend a two-day rally as investors remain cautiously optimistic amid rising energy prices and before the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision.

In this commentary, I’m not going to try to predict any outcomes or long-term effects but rather want to cover how markets have reacted so far and highlight some opportunities that have been created.

Investigation of Federal Reserve chair hits an obstacle, while the Department of Homeland Security remains shut down amid funding standoff.

In this month’s Allocation Views, healthy earnings growth is disguising a bifurcation that has resulted in particularly challenging earnings expectations for large-cap growth stocks in 2026.

Comparing business-cycle-related primary trends of the falling 2-year Treasury yield shows that this is the slowest business cycle since WWII. I argue the slowness of this cycle is evidence of the 6+% average pro-cyclical fiscal deficit over the last three and a half years.

Morgan Stanley is sticking with a forecast that sees the Federal Reserve resuming interest rates cuts in June and delivering another reduction in September, even as soaring oil prices prompt traders to curb bets for how much policymakers will lower borrowing costs this year.