Even if the Middle East war does find a lasting settlement, the specter of inflation appears poised to hang over the markets. Indeed, while employment data had, up until recently, been the primary focus for investors, arguably, inflation reports have now moved into the ‘leaderboard’ position.

Learn what's in store for the remainder of 2026 and the challenges that lie ahead in our mid-year outlook for U.S. stocks and the economy.

Last week, several Fed members signaled the central bank may have to raise interest rates to cool price inflation.

Space ETFs have seen strong inflows coupled with standout performance, capturing significant market attention. For investors, the rapid pace of capital deployment into the space economy underscores a compelling investment opportunity. For this edition of Bull vs Bear, writers Zandile Chiwanza and Elle Caruso Fitzgerald debate the use cases for space ETFs in portfolios.

The top ETF launches of the past decade were the focus on this week’s ETF Prime. Host Nate Geraci and Cynthia Murphy, director of research at VettaFi, counted down the 10 most successful debuts by current assets. Murphy noted that the S&P 500’s roughly 13% annualized gain over that span helped shape many of the performance stories on the list.

Blackstone Inc. has entered an agreement to provide Nippon Life Insurance Co. with investment services, adding to an increasing number of tie-ups between private investment firms and Japanese insurers.

For the dollar-denominated investor weighing how to position for the back half of 2026, last week tightened a thesis we have been building all year.

Would I be better off waiting for the Fed to make its move on rates before investing?” “Should I wait to increase duration because a blocked Strait of Hormuz could push oil prices higher and push rates even higher?” “Should I invest in bonds gradually to reduce the risk of missing the rate peak?

Rising office delinquencies within commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) reflect genuine pressures from shifting work patterns, higher interest rates, and greater refinancing risk.

Taylor Topoussis and Chris Galipeau discuss high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.

LPL Research analyzes stock valuations, finding them fair given growth, rates, inflation, and AI-driven earnings outlook despite risks.

AI is a transformative technology with both near-term and long-term implications for the economy. For investors, while the debt-funded AI buildout has the potential to become a secular driver of risk premia, we believe any such shift would only play out through a multi-year adjustment and would not override the cyclical forces that affect markets.

May’s 5.3% S&P 500 gain masked a deeply uneven market: technology surged 16% on AI spending momentum while most sectors declined, and a surprise inflation rebound flipped the Fed narrative from cuts to potential hikes.

As advisors, our role is not to solve fiscal policy; it is to ensure our clients are positioned to weather the uncertainty that comes from that gap, stay committed to their long-term plans, and not let macroeconomic anxiety drive short-term decisions they will regret.

While the mass affluent market may not be feeling the brunt of inflation woes or the rising cost of living, its financial planning is still being impacted by current economic headwinds.

Caution has become the most expensive position on Wall Street. A hot inflation reading this week — sending the annual gauge to its highest in about three years — landed alongside fresh strikes in the Persian Gulf and enduring expectations that the Federal Reserve may need to keep policy tight.

Geopolitical risks are still lingering in the background, but the story lately has been all about earnings. A strong 1Q26 season, paired with a steady drumbeat of upbeat management commentary, has helped push the S&P 500 to 21 record highs this year.

The market continues to demonstrate remarkable resilience. Lower oil prices, easing Treasury yields, and the relentless buildout of artificial intelligence infrastructure are still providing a favorable backdrop for risk assets.

If you’re not familiar with the name Leopold Aschenbrenner, you should be. A 24-year-old wunderkind, Aschenbrenner was hired by OpenAI in 2023 to work on the company’s “superalignment” team, essentially trying to figure out how to keep AI systems safe once they become smarter than the people building them.

Economies around the world aren’t just reliant on AI investments for growth. The appreciation of AI stocks has supported spending, which is following “K-shaped” patterns. A significant correction to the valuations of tech leaders would therefore be even more likely to result in recession.

A little more than six months ago there were narratives circulating that national housing prices were in an even bigger bubble than the one twenty years ago and headed for an “inevitable” collapse. Given that national home prices dropped about 27% from peak to bottom in the last housing bust, that would be something to worry about.

Vocabulary is a power builder. Every time I use the word “hegemonic” in a conversation, I see my listeners’ eyebrows go up as if to say, “what does this guy know that I don’t?” Then again maybe they’re just signaling that I’m full of more than baked beans.

Closed-end funds may not be a hot topic right now, but they offer a highly compelling means to solve today's macroeconomic woes.

For the last eight years, GMO’s Asset Allocation team has held a differentiated view on Japanese equities. Long before Japan re‑entered the global investment narrative, we argued that the country was undergoing slow but durable structural changes aimed at improving corporate governance, growth, and capital efficiency. These reforms were never expected to deliver quick results. Instead, we expected them to compound quietly over time.

Before I recommend what to do, I want to first state what not to do. Don’t invest as if you think you know what long-term inflation will be. Will we return to the double-digit inflation of the late ‘70s and early ‘80s? The answer is: Nobody knows.

Innovation drives productivity growth, which in turn raises the standard of living for a nation's population. Accordingly, we support the theory that AI will benefit the economy and the population. We laid this bullish case out in "The AI Economy: Looking Beyond The Façade Part I."

The dollar is supposed to be dying. We’ve heard that argument for the better part of a decade, and it’s getting louder, not quieter. Dollar dominance isn’t fading. In fact, the events of late April 2026 just delivered the loudest counter-signal in years.

Equities extend gains as earnings and semiconductors lead markets higher. Consumer confidence remains subdued despite economic resilience. Inflation is easing gradually but remains above the Fed’s targey.

Recent Federal Reserve communications have turned more hawkish, reflecting concern that persistent supply-driven price pressures could begin to feed into inflation expectations. But unlike in prior cycles, today’s environment is not defined by supply shocks alone.

What is unusual about today, and I mean genuinely unusual, historically unusual, is that the people building the equivalent of Newcomen's engine today know exactly (or think they do) what they are building. They are not just pumping water. They “know” the vast potential.

Last week’s data tracked a shifting economic trajectory over the last several months. While the latest reading on first-quarter GDP confirms the economy started the year with steady growth, subsequent inflation metrics moved higher and ultimately weighed on consumer confidence.

The reality is, the American people wouldn’t accept the level of taxation necessary to maintain the warfare/welfare state. There would be a tax revolt. So, the government resorts to a less obvious tax.

Many debates in defined contribution (DC) circles focus on fees, new asset classes, and ever more complex solutions. But the biggest improvement available to plan participants may come from something far simpler: how their fixed income is managed.

U.S. equities moved higher last week, with the S&P 500 advancing 0.9 percent – its eighth consecutive weekly gain and the longest such streak since 2023. The Russell 2000 fared even better, rising 2.7 percent.

Kevin Warsh was officially sworn in as 17th Federal Reserve chair on May 22. Warsh is likely to build consensus at the Fed rather than push for aggressive action to cut rates.

The U.S. government’s decision to invest $2 billion directly into nine quantum-computing companies through minority equity stakes—not just grants—signals a major shift toward treating quantum as a strategic commercial industry, with potential implications for investors seeking targeted exposure through funds like the WisdomTree Quantum Computing Fund (WQTM).

Commodity market trends: Commodity markets have been on an impressive, and volatile, run so far this decade, with leadership oscillating between energy and precious metals. Not surprising, after commodities’ “Lost Decade” of the 2010s, given the asset class tends to move in long capital cycles.

Recent market volatility and the conflict in Iran have understandably pushed many emerging market investors to the sidelines. But periods of uncertainty have historically offered attractive entry points into emerging market debt (EMD), particularly when underlying fundamentals are improving and asset flows are likely to increase.

Since early April, U.S. stocks have rallied sharply despite an ongoing war, rising inflation fueled by soaring oil prices (near $100/barrel), higher bond yields (up 0.6 to 0.7 percentage points), and frothy valuations (21 times projected earnings vs. a historical average of 17 times for the S&P 500 Index).

On the surface, last week looked engineered to embarrass our positioning. The dollar index climbed to a six-week high above 99.3 by Friday and finished the week roughly flat at those levels.

California continues to demonstrate fiscal resilience, supported by strong liquidity balances and the absence of projected cash‑flow borrowing through FY 2026–27. However, Medicaid cost pressures, a progressive tax structure highly sensitive to equity market swings, and constitutional spending constraints remain key differentiators between California and other large states.

An unexpected rap on your front door is sometimes cause for anxiety. You are not sure who or what is out there, wanting to get in.

Treasuries rallied back to be little-changed on the day, erasing earlier declines spurred by higher oil prices, after a key US inflation gauge rose less than expected.

Shares of retailers spanning Kohl’s Corp. to Best Buy Co. and Dollar Tree Inc. rose on Thursday amid optimism that shoppers are still spending when they see what they want at the right price.

Bankers are preparing to sell a jumbo debt package to support the $110 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. It’s a risky deal and comes at a moment when the bond markets have been wobbling.

In a relatively light week for traditional economic data, a mix of corporate earnings, business surveys, Federal Reserve minutes, and the latest read on the consumer from the University of Michigan helped paint an increasingly clear picture for investors.

Thanks to strong gains in markets over recent years, the 60/40 default portfolio has quietly morphed into a bundle of expensive U.S. growth equities and credit exposures offering narrow spreads over Treasuries.

Contrary to what legal television series portray, verdicts rarely turn on a single moment of drama. They take shape gradually, as evidence accumulates and a broader narrative comes into focus.

US growth stocks underperformed in early 2026 amid AI disruption fears and an unresolved conflict in the Middle East. But these stresses could create favorable conditions for selective, diversified investors to unlock long-term growth potential in a rotating market.

Chris Galipeau discusses high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.