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Why Bonds May No Longer Be Able to Save Stocks
by Russ Koesterich of BlackRock, 10/6/16

Historically low bond yields have helped boost stocks in recent years. Russ discusses why this may no longer be enough.

What Rate of Return Will an Investment in Johnson & Johnson Deliver? Part 2
by Chuck Carnevale of F.A.S.T. Graphs, 10/6/16

I never invest in a common stock without a clear expectation of the future returns that it can generate for me. Consequently, I consider this one of the most important steps in my research and due diligence process.

Will Mortgage Bonds Be the Next Disaster—Again?
by Gershon Distenfeld, Michael Canter of AllianceBernstein, 10/6/16

For some investors, any mention of US mortgages takes them back to the dark days of 2008. But today’s mortgage bonds aren’t the devils some market participants make them out to be.

We Believe Congress Is About to Give this Asset Class a Huge Promotion
by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors, 10/6/16

It appears there’s no shortage of investor love for municipal bond funds.

Middle East Investors Having Trouble Finding Value
by Byron Wien of Blackstone, 10/6/16

With all that is happening in the world – the U.S. election, the Brexit vote, various terrorist incidents, speculation about will she or won’t she raise rates at the Fed and other concerns – oil seems to have been pushed down the priority scale of market-influencing issues.

Municipal Impact: Unpacking the Candidates’ Tax Plans
by Daryl Clements of AllianceBernstein, 10/5/16

Trump? Clinton? We won’t call it. But we do have thoughts on the effect of the candidates’ proposals on the tax-exempt municipal bond market.

Steven Romick – Today’s Opportunities for Value Investors
by Robert Huebscher, 10/3/16
As of September 30, the FPA Crescent Fund has had an annualized return of 9.38% for the last 15 years. That is 233 basis points ahead of its benchmark, the Morningstar moderate-target-risk total-return index. It also places it in the top 1% of its Morningstar peer group. I spoke with Steven Romick, a managing partner of FPA and a portfolio manager for the Crescent Fund.

Future Equity Gains May Require Earnings Improvements
by Robert Doll of Nuveen Asset Management, 10/3/16
U.S. equities climbed once again last week thanks to a Friday rally. The S&P 500 Index climbed 0.2% for the week. The first presidential debate dominated discussion early in the week, and investors focused on what Deutsche Bank’s capitalization issues could mean for the global banking system.

Boxing with a Cloud
by Dimitri Balatsos of Decision Economics, Inc., 10/3/16
More than seven years after the Great Recession, the global economic landscape still is not reassuring.

Did OPEC Just Cry Uncle?
by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors, 10/1/16
You’ve probably heard by now that, in an effort to lift oil prices, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) tentatively agreed to a production cut at its meeting in Algiers this week. The cartel, which controls more than a third of world output, plans to limit daily production to between 32.5 million barrels and 33 million barrels, down from 33.2 million barrels.

The Price Investors Pay for High-Dividend Funds
by Larry Swedroe, 9/30/16
It has long been known that many investors have an irrational preference for cash dividends. New research shows that some mutual funds prey upon this preference by artificially inflating – or “juicing” – their reported dividend yield.

No, You Shouldn't Invest Like Yale
by Roger Nusbaum of AdvisorShares, 9/29/16
The Yale University endowment recently announced its return for the year ending June 30th, 2016 as well as its asset allocation targets for the current year.

Valuation is a Measurement of Soundness and Not the Primary Total Return Producer: Part 1
by Chuck Carnevale of F.A.S.T. Graphs, 9/29/16
Much of what I write about is related to the importance of valuation in one way or another. I do this, because I am a fervent believer that one of the most important metrics that investors should be considering before investing in a stock is the relative valuation of the shares they are purchasing.

Diversification is Working in 2016 (so far)
by Zachary Karabell of Envestnet, 9/29/16
Doomsayers notwithstanding, portfolios have performed remarkably well this year following 2015’s lackluster returns.

Five Forecasters: Few Warning Signs
by Burt White of LPL Financial, 9/28/16
The Five Forecasters favor the continuation of the current economic expansion and bull market. The Five Forecasters are five indicators that, collectively, have historically signaled increasing fragility of the U.S. economy and a transition to the late stage of the economic cycle, with increased potential of an oncoming recession.

What to Buy in an Overvalued Sector?
by Kapish Bhutani of Diamond Hill Capital Management, 9/28/16
The most important and the most difficult question in investment management is, “What to buy?” A stock well bought, like any other merchandise, is half sold.

What Lies Beneath
by Joachim Fels, Andrew Balls of PIMCO, 9/28/16
In our outlook for the remainder of this year and for 2017, we discuss the likelihood of continued economic expansion while assessing the underlying risks to growth.

ACTive Returns with Alpha, Conviction and Tenacity
by Neil Dwane of Allianz Global Investors, 9/28/16
In his roundup of our latest Investment Forum, Neil Dwane, Global Strategist for Allianz Global Investors, says growth will stay low while central banks suppress yields and politics boost uncertainty. In this environment, investors’ returns will be driven by their ability to accept risk and stay active.

UPDATE: 5-Year Capital Market Assumptions
by Global Asset Allocation Team of Columbia Threadneedle Investments, 9/27/16
Maintaining long-term forecasts for major asset classes provides helpful context for responding to short-term swings in markets.

The Return of Fiscal Policy
by Nouriel Roubini of Project Syndicate, 9/26/16
Since the global financial crisis of 2008, monetary policy has borne much of the burden of sustaining aggregate demand, boosting growth, and preventing deflation in developed economies. Eight years later, its time to pass the baton to fiscal policy.

Are Preferred Stocks an Alternative to Safe Bonds?
by Larry Swedroe, 9/26/16
Low interest rates mean that investors can no longer generate the income they need (and were used to). This dilemma has triggered a search for higher-yielding alternative forms of fixed income investing. Those investors who choose preferred stocks must understand the hidden and obvious risks.

It's Still the Fed, And It's Not Magic
by Brian Wesbury, Robert Stein of First Trust Advisors, 9/26/16
We hate to do this and we hope we don't put you to sleep so early in the week, but it's time to talk about monetary policy. Specifically, the "transmission mechanism" of monetary policy.

A Sensible Diet for Safety Seekers
by Kent Hargis, Sammy Suzuki, Chris Marx of AllianceBernstein, 9/26/16
Investors have been binging on richly valued high-dividend-yielding stocks and other bond-proxy equities for the past year. We think it’s time for an intervention.

On My Radar: Morningstar ETF Conference – Best Ideas, Part II
by Steve Blumenthal of CMG Capital Management Group, 9/26/16
Last week, I shared some of my notes from the recent Morningstar ETF Conference. I received a number of positive responses. It really helps me to go back through my notes, reflect on what I wrote and summarize it in On My Radar.

Perspective from Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group
by Team of Franklin Templeton Investments, 9/24/16
Though data turned somewhat softer in recent weeks, we would agree with the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) broadly positive assessment of the US economy at its September meeting, where the Fed remained on hold but a minority of policymakers called for an immediate rise in interest rates. The economy’s fundamentals appear little changed to us, with forecasts for growth to improve in the second half of the year still looking on track, underpinned by the resilience of measures relating to consumers. However, measures to tackle structural headwinds such as stagnant productivity are likely to be required to raise the trend growth rate over the longer term.

Rulers and Rules
by Carl R. Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore, Ankit Mital of Northern Trust, 9/24/16
Rules play an important role in an economy. Most regulations are designed, at least in theory, to facilitate the achievement of good overall outcomes. But some directives beget unintended consequences and others take on a life that goes far beyond their initial purpose.

The Case for Natural Resource Equities
by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors, 9/24/16
In the opinion of Lucas White and Jeremy Grantham, “prices of many commodities will rise in the decades to come due to growing demand and the finite supply of cheap resources,” presenting an attractive investment opportunity. Over the long-term, resource stocks have traded at a discount and outperformed their underlining metals and energy by a wide margin.

Stock Valuations Are Elevated, but Are Current Prices Unprecedented?
by Nick Kalivas of Invesco, 9/23/16
In recent months, questions about equity market valuations have flooded my desk. The rising price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the S&P 500 Index and the run-up in equity prices seem to have shaken investor confidence in future returns. With this in mind, it is worth considering equity valuations from a historical perspective.

‘Risky’ and ‘Safe’ Assets Can’t Both Keep Winning
by Stefan Hofrichter of Allianz Global Investors, 9/23/16
Asset classes across the risk/reward spectrum have performed strongly in 2016, but something has to give, according to Stefan Hofrichter, Chief Economist for Allianz Global Investors. He says it’s the relatively safer assets that are eventually going to lose out.

More on LIBOR, Money Market Fund Regulations, and Treasuries
by Eric Bush of GaveKal Capital, 9/23/16
On October 14th the new money market fund regulations that were announced in July 2014 take effect. This has lead to a mass exodus out of prime and muni funds to the tune of about $700 billion since last October.

On My Radar: Best Ideas
by Steve Blumenthal of CMG Capital Management Group, 9/20/16
Last week, I promised I’d share some of my Morningstar conference notes. So let’s start there today. I hope that you find my notes helpful. I believe we investors should always be putting together a shopping list of best ideas so that we are in a position to act when the getting is good.

The Hidden Portfolio Risk in Higher Rates
by Russ Koesterich of BlackRock, 9/20/16
Russ discusses the implications of a higher rate regime for your portfolio. The answer may surprise you.

Four Elements of a Bond Market Bubble
by Jim Cielinski of Columbia Threadneedle Investments, 9/20/16
The developed world’s government bond markets are showing characteristics of a bubble. Timing the end of this rally won’t be easy — but for those watching closely, hints are emerging.

War on Cash Turns to $20, $50, and $100 Bills
by Clint Siegner of Money Metals Exchange, 9/20/16
Harvard professor and economist Ken Rogoff is once again leading the chorus of high-level academics and officials who declare cash is only for criminals.

Equities Appear More Attractive than Other Asset Classes
by Robert Doll of Nuveen Asset Management, 9/19/16
U.S. equities experienced a volatile week, as monetary policy dominated the headlines. Dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials tamped down speculation that the central bank was on course to tighten aggressively.

To All the Bond Market Chicken Littles Out There
by Jennifer Thomson of GaveKal Capital, 9/19/16
Yesterday, when it seemed everyone was getting a bit overexcited about the severity of recent market weakness, we took a look at some of our internal indicators and found that just two sectors have reached technically oversold levels (details here).

The Rising Costs of Capital Preservation
by Jerome Schneider, Andrew Wittkop, Nathan Chiaverini of PIMCO, 9/19/16
An investment in money market funds since the beginning of 2009 would have decreased purchasing power by more than 14% on a cumulative basis.

CEF Market Update
by Investius News, 9/19/16
The CEF market generally has performed well during the first three quarters of 2016, industry professionals say.

The War on Cash Is Still Good for Gold
by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors, 9/17/16
With the five-year Treasury yielding 1.19 percent, government bond investors are now receiving a negative real rate of return (because 2.3 minus 1.19 comes out to negative 1.11 percent). This is highly constructive for the price of gold. As I’ve discussed many times before, the yellow metal has benefited when real rates have fallen below zero. This was the case in September 2011 when gold hit its all-time high of $1,900 per ounce. And last year around this time, the opposite was true—positive real rates were a drag on gold.

Equity Markets Continue Their Streak Even as Fed Hints at 2016 Hike
by Joe Becker, Adam Schenck, Jeff Greco of Milliman FRM, 9/16/16
The S&P 1500 notched its seventh consecutive calendar month of positive returns amidst exceptionally low volatility.

Unprecedented Global Bond Bubble Threatens Holders of Cash
by Stefan Gleason of Money Metals Exchange, 9/16/16
As big as previous real estate and stock market bubbles have been, the current global bubble in government debt dwarfs them all. Not only is it far bigger in size and scope (some $60 trillion in sovereign bonds now trade globally); it is also unprecedented in character.

Schwab Market Perspective: Round and Round We Go…
by Liz Ann Sonders, Brad Sorensen, Jeffrey Kleintop of Charles Schwab, 9/16/16
Some complacency had set in along with the low-volatility summer rally, but Fed policy uncertainty yet again shook the market out of its slumber.

Investing and the Elephant in the Low-Growth Room
by Sammy Suzuki, Kent Hargis, Chris Marx of AllianceBernstein, 9/16/16
The global economy is stuck in low gear, signaling more years of subpar yields and risk-on/risk-off market skirmishes. So we offer some ideas on how equity investors can get their portfolios battle ready.

Emerging-Market Resilience
by Mark Mobius of Franklin Templeton Investments, 9/16/16
While emerging markets remain sensitive to macroeconomic indicators and global monetary policy—which means volatility is likely to persist for some time—we see signs confidence is returning to emerging markets and believe it is likely to continue.

The One Statistic Every Bond Investor Should Know
by Ashish Shah, Scott DiMaggio of AllianceBernstein, 9/15/16
If you’re a passive fixed-income investor trying to make sense of last Friday’s sell-off, the one statistic you must check—and now—is the average duration of your portfolio.

Volatility Ahead?
by Blaine Rollins of 361 Capital, 9/15/16
Just when you thought that Yellen was your largest Central Banking worry, along comes Abe and Draghi to steal the spotlight.

The Nitty-Gritty of Currency Hedged Bonds
by Eric Bush of GaveKal Capital, 9/15/16
If you are like us and try to read as much economic research and market commentary as you can, you have probably noticed several stories regarding currency hedged government bonds.

Negative Rates Nail Savers
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics, 9/14/16
The economy has been rigged through a process that may have seemed innocent enough at any given point but that quickly put us on a slippery slope as ideological forces captured the ramparts of academic economic science. A brief history will bring us up to date.

Tracking the Growth Catalysts in Emerging Markets
by Nick Niziolek of Calamos Investments, 9/14/16
Eight months after the start of the EM rally, where will continued economic growth and investment opportunity come from? The Calamos Investments Global Equity Team uses several graphs to tell the story.

The New Neutral Yield Curve: A New Framework for the Bank of Japan
by Tomota Masanao of PIMCO, 9/14/16
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is at a crossroads. Despite a 3.5-year unprecedented experiment with unconventional policy tools, a war against deflation is still unwon. Meanwhile, the BOJ appears to be aware of its current policy limit or at least admits there are side effects. So what now?
Results 8,301–8,350 of 11,871 found.