Just when you thought that Yellen was your largest Central Banking worry, along comes Abe and Draghi to steal the spotlight. Maybe Time Warner should sign the three central bankers to star in "Suicide Squad 2: The End of Low Volatility." No doubt it would scare the pants off of any levered Risk Parity fund manager and get better reviews than whatever D.C. Comics released to the theaters this summer.
The Bank of Japan remains in a pickle. Now the 'widowmaker' trade is no longer hurting its investors (those short Japanese Govt. Bonds) and interest rates are ripping. Mario Draghi added to the interest rate rocket party by implying that the ECB has not discussed an extension of their bond buying program past March 2017. This doesn't mean they won't, he just said that they haven't talked about it. With European economic data still very weak, one would think that some version of QE will continue but in a skittish, low volatility market, Mr. Draghi's comment was akin to screaming 'Fire' in a showing of any Marvel Comics movie.
So, is this the end of the Bond and Equity markets? Probably not. Everyone just is a bit too wired up after a dull summer which is why a 100-point move in the Dow feels like a 10% correction. I agree that the average equity market is more fully valued today, but there are some sectors and geographies which are undervalued and some which are overvalued. While it is unfortunate that the high correlation of the market does rip around so many markets and asset classes, this is also your opportunity to make adjustments and position to buy those investments which will outperform and sell those which will underperform. The credit markets remain very healthy even with a seasonally large amount of supply hitting the market this month. And expectations on the Fed to raise rates this month are still at only 30%, even with the recent less than amazing economic data. But don't forget the Fed playbook: When the world looks scary, they put away the rate hike hammer and pull out the verbal easing wand. Do you think that it will be any different this time?
So enjoy the rise in volatility, you know that you were missing it. And if it is not enough for you, just turn to your front page stories regarding crazy world leaders with bigger nukes and leading Presidential candidates with health issues. Better get some popcorn.
Draghi's comments started a volatile week in European yields which quickly became a global issue that bled to all asset classes...
@jsblokland: ICYMI! The German 10-year bond #yield rose to above zero for the first time in almost two months. #ECB
And Citigroup will remind you that any comments and actions by the ECB or the BoJ have an increasing impact upon the price of that small cap stock in your IRA...