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Corrective Action Continues – But, A Rally May Still Be Seen
by Avi Gilburt of ElliottWaveTrader.net, 4/6/16
have said many times before that trying to track every twist and turn within corrective action is like trying to throw Jell-O for distance . . . you just won’t be able to get it all.

How to Identify and Overcome the Limits to Your Success
by Bob Veres, 4/5/16
Confronted by a client who balks at a high fee or by a team member whose performance is imperfect, many advisors react by assuming that the problem is their own. One’s fees are lowered and the employee’s job description is remade. But this mindset exposes a lack of self-awareness, according to Stephanie Bogan. Instead, she says that by recognizing your inherent predispositions you can be on a “limitless” path to success.

Six Ways a Marketing Consultant Can Help You
by Crystal Butler, 4/5/16
Rather than just “getting it done” or pushing your marketing efforts to the bottom of the to-do list, you might hire a consultant to help you do what you set out to do: keep your current clients happy and get new ones. Here are six reasons why.

China's Economy Is Transforming; It Just Needs Time
by Anthony Cragg, Stephen Kinney of Wells Fargo Asset Management, 4/5/16
China’s service sector could be a major growth catalyst. In our view, all the country needs is time.

Brazil’s Olympic Ambitions
by Mark Mobius of Franklin Templeton Investments, 4/5/16
It’s important to remember that Brazil is still in the early stages of developing a viable political and economic structure, and these types of transitions aren’t always smooth.

Don't Short the Participation Rate!
by Brian Wesbury, Robert Stein of First Trust Advisors, 4/5/16
Last Friday was an interesting day. For years now, the US has consistently added jobs and the unemployment rate has steadily fallen. But, the Pouting Pundits of Pessimism keep arguing that a falling unemployment rate is only because of weak growth in the labor force.

A Value Fund with a Long-Term Success Record
by Robert Huebscher, 4/5/16
Tim Hartch has been a co-manager of the BBH Global Core Select fund (BBGRX) since inception and has also co-managed the BBH Core Select fund (BBTEX) since October 2005. I spoke with Tim about his management philosophy and how he has been able to outperform his benchmark over a long time period.

The Positives Outweigh the Negatives for the U.S. Economy
by Robert Doll of Nuveen Asset Management, 4/4/16
The U.S. equity rally resumed last week with the S&P 500 Index climbing 1.8%. Although expectations for the upcoming corporate earnings season are low, investors chose to focus on the positives. Specifically, investors reacted to dovish comments made by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen in her speech at the Economics Club of New York, which counteracted some more hawkish comments made by Fed officials the previous week. Other asset classes came under pressure, including commodities and oil, causing some skepticism about the recent rebound. The oil sell-off was due to heightened doubts about the ability of major producers to formalize a production freeze agreement.

On My Radar: Fed Stuck Between Three Rocks and a Hard Place
by Steve Blumenthal of CMG Capital Management Group, 4/4/16
“Now these monetary institutions are expected to continue producing miracles. But their ability to repeatedly pull new rabbits out of their policy hats has been stretched to an increasingly unsustainable degree.” -Mohamed A. El-Erian, The Only Game in Town

Inside Information - March 2016
by Bob Veres, 4/4/16
This is a complimentary issue of Bob Veres' Inside Information. The lead article defines the robo-advisor challenge as nothing more than the next evolution of professional software—I call it Software 2.0—with intelligent built-in capabilities. The article looks at how the venture capitalists who funded the robo-platforms identified three significant weaknesses in the advisor profession they hoped to disrupt. As it turns out, instead of disrupting us, they did us all a big favor. By exposing certain weaknesses, the venture capitalists showed us several ways to increase your top-line revenues without any additional labor from you or your staff.

Markets to Investors: It’s ‘Time In,’ Not ‘Timing’
by Erik Knutzen of Neuberger Berman, 4/4/16
The old adage says that “time in the market” is more important than “timing the market.” Anyone who needed a reminder of that truth got it in spades during the first quarter of 2016. Who would have thought, on the dark morning of February 12 with the S&P 500 Index down more than 10%, that U.S. equities would finish the quarter up 0.8%?

Gold Had Its Best Quarter in a Generation. So Where Are the Investors?
by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors, 4/2/16
he last time gold had a quarter this strong, Ronald Reagan was a year into his second term as president, the Soviet Union was taking its final gasp and the U.S. was still reeling from the Challenger explosion. Year-to-date, the yellow metal has risen 16.5 percent, its best three-month performance since 1986, mostly on fears of negative interest rates and other global central bank policies.

Real and Alternative Assets Outlook Second Quarter 2016
by Team of Neuberger Berman, 4/1/16
Despite challenges, we maintained a slightly overweight view on lower volatility and directional hedge funds; meanwhile certain areas within private debt appear attractive.

A Different Take on Brexit
by Team of Absolute Return Partners, 4/1/16
With 2 1/2 months to go before the Brexit referendum it is anybody's guess what the outcome will be. In this month's Absolute Return Letter we take the rare opportunity to comment on a political event. Regardless of where you reside, the result is likely to be important for you. Like most things in life, the choices are not black and white. Enjoy the read.

Equity Outlook Second Quarter 2016
by Team of Neuberger Berman, 4/1/16
Global equities—particularly those in developed markets outside the U.S.—may provide more opportunities over the coming 12 months.

Wrestling with Negative Interest Rates
by Byron Wien of Blackstone, 4/1/16
I have long thought that negative interest rates didn’t make sense, but monetarists argue that they are just low interest rates carried further. The theory is that if consumers and corporations have to pay a price to store their cash at banks, they will go out and spend and invest, but it is not clear that is what happens when deposit rates fall below zero. What is clear is that the outcomes vary by the size and importance of the central bank involved. In any case, the effects seem to be more temporary than long-lasting. Perhaps more worthy of examination are the reasons behind the negative rates and what these conditions mean for the long-term economic performance of countries and regions and returns in their financial markets.

The Teleology of Smart Beta
by Craig Lazzara of S&P Dow Jones Indices, 3/31/16
In this blog post, Craig Lazzara discusses the growth of assets tracking factor indices and how it goes hand-in-hand with the evaluating and promoting Smart Beta funds.

Staying dynamic: Multi-asset investing in 2016
by Brian Meath of Russell Investments, 3/31/16
According to Russell Investments’ strategists, volatility is here to stay in 2016. For investors looking to achieve long-term outcomes, taking a dynamic, multi-asset approach may be one of the keys to success.

Passive-Aggressive: Index Funds and Risk in European Bond Benchmarks
by Scott Spalding, Andrew Bosoworth of PIMCO, 3/30/16
In our view, using a bond index fund today exposes portfolios to greater interest rate risk without commensurate compensation in the form of yield.

Toll Bridge Stocks: Don't Just Do Something, Sit There
by William Smead of Smead Capital Management, 3/30/16
The floating bridge, which crosses from Seattle on one side of Lake Washington to Bellevue on the other, has been rebuilt and is almost completed. To finance the new bridge, a toll has been placed on its use. The other bridge, the I-90 bridge, requires no toll but takes you much farther out of your way. It is also jammed by cars wishing to avoid the toll. As a result, the floating bridge is a much more attractive option when traveling to Bellevue because there is less worry about losing time to traffic jams.

Dividends’ True Contribution to Total Return May Surprise You
by Chuck Carnevale of F.A.S.T. Graphs, 3/30/16
In recent years, dividends’ contribution to total return has been one of the most heavily-studied topics in the investment world. Several conclusions about the contribution that dividends make to total return have been claimed. However, these conclusions vary greatly. I have seen studies claiming that 90% of returns are attributed to dividends, several claiming 50% or more, and others arguing for a 30% contribution. Ironically, they all seem to be correct depending on the data-sets and/or timeframes being measured.

Rumors of the Industrial Sector's Demise Are Greatly Exaggerated
by Alex Christensen of Columbia Threadneedle Investments, 3/29/16
Outside of struggling oil companies, the U.S. industrial sector has a moderately positive outlook — a far cry from the popular narrative of recession. An improving industrial sector would pave the way for the Fed to raise rates faster than the market is currently expecting. As encouraging data keeps rolling in, we think market worries over an industrial recession will evaporate.

The Détente Agreement
by Steve Blumenthal of CMG Capital Management Group, 3/29/16
“Corporate sector metrics have been disappointing of late… Companies are scaling back expenditures of all kinds (capital expenditures, hiring, and inventory-builds, for example), as their top-line revenues and earnings decelerate. Though first-quarter numbers may come in better than beaten-down forecasts, firms are finding that top line revenues are still hard to grow significantly.” Rick Rieder, Head of Global Fixed Income, BlackRock

Open Letter to the Next President, Part 3
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics, 3/28/16
Today we continue my series of open letters to the presidential candidates. In the meantime, we’ve drawn a little closer to knowing whom the two major parties will nominate. A few people are vowing to consider minor parties, too.

The Collision of Aspiration and Reality in India
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 3/27/16
As China falters somewhat, India has become the world’s new economic darling. Hopes of residents and global investors are lofty, but reality suggests a cautiously optimistic stance.

Challenges and Opportunities Facing Brazilian Companies
by Mark Mobius of Franklin Templeton Investments, 3/24/16
Brazil has great potential to improve its economic standing, but we aren’t alone in stating that policies need to change. We can’t predict when this will happen, so investors there need to be patient.

Two Down – Two to Go
by Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital, 3/24/16
The Federal Reserve’s years-long campaign to sheepishly back away from its own policy forecasts continued in earnest last week when it officially reduced the four expected 2016 quarter point hikes, suggested back in December, to just two.

This Worrisome Trend Could Influence Interest Rate Policy
by Rick Rieder of BlackRock, 3/23/16
BlackRock’s Rick Rieder believes there are several factors behind the Federal Reserve’s decision to not raise its benchmark rate, but highlights one particular trend to keep an eye on.

Calmer C's Ahead?
by Joachim Fels, Andrew Balls of PIMCO, 3/23/16
China, Commodities and Central Banks Dominate the Global Outlook. Read our global economic outlook for the near term and implications for asset classes.

Europe - Not Enough Growth
by Burt White of LPL Financial, 3/23/16
Forecasts for European corporate earnings have become increasingly pessimistic. Analysts have reduced calendar year 2016 expectations to just under 3% earnings per share (EPS) growth, currently from nearly 20% as of the end of September 2015. Even though European stock prices have declined, the collapse in growth expectations suggests that these markets are still fairly valued; few, if any, bargains have been created. Recent aggressive monetary policy by the European Central Bank (ECB) may have boosted stock prices, but the implications for corporate earnings are much less certain.

Money Misperceptions
by Brian Wesbury, Robert Stein of First Trust Advisors, 3/22/16
1 – The Panic of 2008 was not caused by tight monetary policy. 2 – Zero percent interest rate policy (ZIRP) and Quantitative Easing (QE) did not save the US or global economies. 3 – Monetary policy in the US is getting looser as the Fed hikes rates, and, 4 – negative interest rates in Japan and Europe are not working.

Why Oil Index Investors Should Be Flying High
by Jodie Gunzberg of S&P Dow Jones Indices, 3/22/16
In this blog post, Jodie Gunzberg discusses how hedging against an oil price rise is a choice rooted in managing risk; an equation that any shareholder can end up on the wrong side of.

How Contested Conventions Will Affect Summer Market Volatility
by Seaborn Hall, 3/22/16
A multiple-vote contested convention has not occurred in most of our lifetimes and because of that is little understood. Some claim that Donald Trump does not have a clear path to the Republican nomination. Depending who you ask, Hillary Clinton will be indicted, mired in scandal or not by the end of May. The uncertainty of contested conventions will contribute to summer market volatility. Let’s look at the convention process, delegate math and the most likely scenarios.

”Truthiness,” “Mathiness” and the Costs they Impose on Your Clients’ Assets
by Michael Edesess, 3/22/16
The comedian Stephen Colbert coined the word “truthiness” to mean something that “feels right in the gut” but lacks empirical or theoretical support. Its counterpart in the realm of finance is “mathiness,” where academicians or marketers present seemingly rigorous mathematical proofs of assertions that, upon closer inspection, have little or no basis in reality. If the investment products you use rely on mathiness and not provable math, you and your clients will ultimately pay a price.

Open Letter to the Next President, Part 2
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics, 3/21/16
Today we’ll continue our world tour with more advice for the next president.

Central Banks Just Pulled Back from the Abyss
by Brad Tank of Neuberger Berman, 3/21/16
A spiral into deeper negative rates is off the table for now.

On My Radar: The Fallacy of Overlooking Secondary Consequences
by Steve Blumenthal of CMG Capital Management Group, 3/21/16
It is the fallacy of overlooking secondary consequences that is keeping me up at night. Try telling that one to your spouse.

In the Know: Clean Power Plan Faces Supreme Challenge
by John Kohli of Franklin Templeton Investments, 3/18/16
With or without a federal mandate to cut carbon dioxide emissions, carbon reductions are happening throughout the industry for economic reasons. Low natural gas prices and low-cost renewables are driving investment decisions away from higher-carbon sources of energy.

Fear…Not?
by Team of PIMCO, 3/17/16
The fears that had cast a pall over January weighed on the markets in early February as well, but sentiment improved sharply as the month progressed. Encouraging U.S. economic data contributed to an improvement in global risk appetite. Investors marveled at yet another V-shaped trajectory in the markets in February, but concerns still lingered.

Five-Year Outlook: Make Headwinds Your Tailwinds
by BMO Global Asset Management, 3/17/16
This outlook report informs BMO GAM’s longer-term strategic portfolio allocations and has been distilled into three possible scenarios expected to dominate the global economy over the next three to five years. The report helps drive BMO GAM’s investment strategies and often plays a role in guiding active global asset allocation opportunities across the firm’s global investment centers. The firm’s primary case calls for a broadening of U.S.-led global growth into key geographies, particularly Europe and Japan.

Market Assumptions Are Wrong Again
by Avi Gilburt of ElliottWaveTrader.net, 3/16/16
This past week, much was written about expectations regarding the ECB actions. The wide consensus was that the Euro was going to tank and the metals would tank with the Euro. However, that is not exactly what we saw.

Global Stakes for the Brexit Vote
by John Browne of Euro Pacific Capital, 3/16/16
On February 20th, UK Prime Minister David Cameron announced that the 'in/out EU referendum' he had promised in the campaign for the last parliamentary vote would finally take place on June 23rd. The outcome of the long-promised vote could have a tremendous impact not merely on the future of Mr. Cameron and his coalition but on the economic future of Great Britain and much of the world, including the European Union (EU) and the United States. It's arguable that the referendum will be the most significant vote the world will see between now and the U.S. presidential ballots in November.

Will The Fed Raise Rates Tomorrow? Probably Not
by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management, 3/16/16
The Federal Reserve’s policy setting body, the Fed Open Market Committee (FOMC), is meeting today and tomorrow, and there is widespread speculation over whether or not the Committee will vote to raise the Fed Funds rate a second time since lift-off in December.

Political Punching Bags
by William Smead of Smead Capital Management, 3/15/16
The United States has one of the most successful biotech/pharmaceutical industries and arguably the premier banking institutions in the world. During the current presidential race, populist politicians on both sides of the aisle have gained a great deal of popularity by turning these two industries into political punching bags.

Is the U.S. Heading Toward Recession?
by Marie Schofield of Columbia Threadneedle Investments, 3/15/16
Higher recession risks will center on a further slowdown of economic momentum and continued tightening of financial and credit conditions. Any weakness in job growth and consumption will signal the expansion is at extreme risk and hopefully prompt the Fed to delay hiking rates. While there is little near-term risk of recession, that risk is likely to grow later this year and into 2017.

Newsletter - March 2016
by Harold Evensky of Evensky & Katz / Foldes Financial Wealth Management, 3/15/16

Harold Evensky's quarterly letter to his readers.

A Market Valuation Gauge That Works
by Theodore Wong, 3/15/16
In my previous article, I examined many popular metrics that show that U.S. equities have been overvalued for over 20 years. The conventional explanation is that the overvaluation and its unusually long duration is a statistical outlier. But until the anomaly is better understood, naively equating the lack of mean reversion with overvaluation will lead to ill-advised investment strategies.

An Open Letter to the Next President
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics, 3/15/16
As the entire world is painfully aware, it is election year in the United States. I realize the images my non-American friends see may not inspire confidence. Our process is messy in the best of circumstances, and this year we are not at our best.

An Early Spring
by Christian Thwaites of Brouwer & Janachowski, 3/15/16
Markets ended last week firmer. The S&P 500 traded 2,000, roughly where it was fourteen months ago but up 7% from February lows. Nearly all markets experienced a bounce from just four weeks ago: Small Caps were up 11%, Emerging Markets up 9% and REITS up 8%. Why?

When Markets are Quiet—Too Quiet
by Russ Koesterich of BlackRock, 3/15/16
BlackRock Chief Investment Strategist Russ Koesterich suggests that, given the uneven pace of global growth, there is a potential for a return of volatility.
Results 7,201–7,250 of 10,163 found.