Italy rejected Prime Minister Matteo Renzi's constitutional reform in Sunday’s referendum, as polls had predicted. But Italian voters didn’t just say “no,” they said “hell no!” with 59.1% voting against and 40.9% voting in favor.
Multi-asset investment strategist Wouter Sturkenboom looks at the Italian referendum outcome and its potential impact on 2017 global markets for investors.
Donald Trump’s largely unexpected victory of the U.S. presidential election echoed the Brexit vote of just six months prior, reinforcing an ongoing fundamental shift in political currents and capital markets around the globe.
Over the last two weeks, a lot of the bullish sentiment that was embedded in the market has now given way to fear.
U.S. equities finished mostly lower last week, with the S&P 500 Index down 0.9%. Rising interest rates and the climbing U.S. dollar weighed on sentiment, and investors started turning from broad hopes of fiscal stimulus and tax reform to wondering about specifics.
Despite speculation about the fate of the DOL fiduciary rule under the new Trump Administration, Russell Investments believes advisors should stick to their current implementation plans.
Higher education policy changes are on the horizon with the new administration coming in January. A comprehensive college savings plan, such as a 529 plan, is a good way to prepare for changes in student loans and college tuition costs. Proper research maximizes growth opportunities for 529 plans to fund future college expenses. Having a sustainable “savings” budget helps to minimize any overspending during the holidays and keeps long-term financial goals a priority.
While on the surface the Italian Referendum appears to be only about the structure of government power and Prime Minister Matteo Renzi’s desire to pass economic reforms, beneath the surface is a serious financial issue that has the potential to impact not just Italy, but Europe and beyond. This may sound small and meaningless to you and me but it is not.
Your business name is your firm’s first impression to the public and potential clients. Choosing a name is a critically important decision and choosing a good one drives revenue. Choosing a confusing name or one that is hard to understand will lead to spending as much time explaining your company name as in finding new clients.
Italians are headed to the polls this Sunday (and thus this letter is reaching you a little earlier than usual) – but no one is quite sure what is on the ballot. On the surface, the voters are considering whether to approve constitutional reforms that should make the government operate more effectively (or not, depending on your point of view). But many people think the real question is whether the current government should stay in power and whether Italy should remain yoked to the Eurozone.
Employment growth is decelerating, from over 2% last year to 1.6% now. Housing starts and permits have flattened over the past year. There is nothing alarming in any of this but it is noteworthy that expansions weaken before they end, and these are signs of some weakening that bear monitoring closely.
One of the key insights revealed by the presidential election is that there has been a significant gap between perception and reality in regards to a number of economic issues. Resolution of these issues is likely to be messy and involve change that will affect investors in many ways.
Next Tuesday will mark four weeks since Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi made his surprise demonetization announcement that has sent shockwaves throughout the South Asian country’s economy.
According to the Merriam-Webster dictionary, a Populist is, "a member of a political party claiming to represent the common people." The opposite of populist is elitist. We don't think Mr. Moore was calling President Reagan an elitist, so what was he saying?
Welcome to December. The year 2016 saw global turmoil in equity, credit, and energy markets in the initial months; a highly emotional U.S. presidential campaign and election; and a subsequent equity markets rally with various indexes at new all-time highs.
A pending US interest-rate hike and worries about inflation may have persuaded investors to start avoiding bonds. We think that’s a mistake, especially when it comes to high yield, a sector that often thrives when rates rise.
Does Donald Trump’s election victory mean that US investors should brace for higher inflation? Financial markets certainly think so. It may be time for investors to take note.
Listen, before we go through a litany of economic charts that pour some cold water on the recent bout of optimism regarding US economic growth prospects we want to stress that we don’t believe economic growth is about to fall off of a cliff.
A year ago, profits for companies in the S&P had declined 15% year over year (yoy). The consensus believed this signaled the start of a recession in the US. How has that dire prognosis worked out? In a word: terrible.
I use Coke to demonstrate the importance of differentiating between a good company (which Coke is) and a good stock (which it is not), and the danger of having an exclusive focus on a shiny object – dividends – when you are analyzing stocks.
Over the last 7.5 years, the Case-Shiller national home price index has increased 24.9% on a cumulative basis. But I have argued in numerous articles that that figure is grossly overstated. A new RealtyTrac report supports my claim, and shows the actual number is only 16%.
With the charitable foundations of both presidential candidates under scrutiny, advisors should be aware of the issues around self-dealing.
No forecaster has predicted equity returns as accurately has Jeremy Siegel over the post-crisis period. In our annual interview, he offers his forecasts for the coming year.
The First Eagle Global Income Builder Fund (FEBIX) seeks to provide meaningful and stable income that persists over time and holds its value in real terms. It has approximately $1.2 billion in assets and is a leading performer in its Morningstar peer group. I spoke with two of its co-managers, Kimball Brooker and Edward Meigs.
The stock market has reestablished an extreme overvalued, overbought, overbullish syndrome of conditions that - unlike much of half-cycle advance from 2009 to mid-2014 - lacks internal uniformity, particularly among interest-sensitive and globally-sensitive sectors.
Last week’s letter with my thoughts on what Trump should do generated more responses than any other letter had in the last 17 years. As you might suspect, with a topic so controversial, not everyone agreed with me.
The question now is whether Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will put the brakes on the so-called Trump rally. She asserts that Fed policy is not politically motivated, but I wonder how many people actually believe that. She’s already criticized Trump’s plans to tear up or at least significantly weaken Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform.
The US president-elect's economic strategy is severely flawed: its protectionist bias collides head-on with the imperative of increased US reliance on foreign saving and trade deficits in order to sustain economic growth. A saving-short, protectionist America is a country on a path to nowhere.
In Italy’s December 4 referendum, voters will approve or reject the country’s most extensive constitutional reforms since the monarchy was abolished at the end of World War II.
The S&P 500 hit a low of 666 on March 6, 2009 and was up 213%, excluding dividends, through November 4, 2016. Since then, the S&P 500 is up another 4.6%, and closed just 0.5% from a new all-time high last Friday.
Having and maintaining a CRM tool is vital for financial advisors who want to build a solid client experience
The top conversations on APViewpoint last week were started by Ken Steiner, Stephanie Bogan and Eric Weigel. They generated thoughtful discussion with wide ranging opinions on: the only withdrawal plan you will ever need; three secrets to limitless leadership; and outsourcing investment management.
What are the most important investment implications that you and I and your clients might consider post last week’s election?
What yield-seeking investors need to know about this expanding asset class
I’m going to depart from the normal format of my letters, where I talk about the economic realities we face and how we should invest, and instead offer my view of what I think the Trump administration and the GOP-led Congress should do.
Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group® offers its perspective on the global markets. In this Issue: Uncertainty Ahead of Trump Administration but Fundamentals Remain Constructive; Divergence in Monetary Policies Between World’s Leading Central Banks Likely to Remain Intact; and Eurozone Bond Yields Rise but ECB Likely to Adjust Rather Than Signal End of Quantitative Easing
Today’s income hungry world underscores the need to dig into free cash flow and payout ratios to avoid yield traps.
After years of deriding the airline industry, Warren Buffett confirmed this week that his holding company, Berkshire Hathaway, has invested nearly $1.3 billion in four big-name domestic carriers: American, Delta, United and Southwest.
Small caps have been on fire, as the Russell 2000 has been up 10 consecutive days for the first time since March 2013.
Is the election of Donald Trump the latest example, following on from the Brexit vote and the success of Bernie Sanders and non-mainstream candidates in Europe, of a global trend in demagoguery and isolationism that will sweep all in its path, including the economies of Asia?
The election of Ronald Reagan in 1980 provides the best recent precedent for the unexpected triumph of Donald Trump...
Back in September we explained how US treasury yields were at parity with foreign government bonds for many foreign investors (namely euro and yen-based investors) from a currency hedged basis.
Emerging market assets have come under heavy pressure, particularly in Mexico and China, which have also sagged under the specter of rising U.S. trade protectionism. But rather than focus on Trump’s campaign talk, watch his actions.
In July, fund managers' had their highest exposure to bonds in 3-1/2 years. In other words, they expected yields to keep falling.
Jeffrey Gundlach was the only prominent financial professional to predict Donald Trump’s victory. Yesterday, he revealed how he made that call.
Donald Trump’s victory came as the first surprise for many around the world. The reaction in the markets was the second surprise.
While people search the market’s behavior for logic, there really doesn’t have to be any. In “On the Couch,” I mentioned that sometimes the market interprets everything positively, and sometimes it interprets everything negatively. The market often fails to act rationally in the short run, primarily because of the role played by people in determining its course. Thus two key observations can be made based on last week’s developments.
Brexit and the Donald Trump presidential victory should rightly be viewed as the most significant international developments of the last decade.
So, last week was interesting, huh? If nothing else, it was definitely a far cry from two or three months ago when investors could check in on the markets only every few days and not really miss much of anything.
I hired five new people. The new employees ask for things I haven’t thought about, and then don’t seem to care about other things I have put in place. What kind of structure is most important?
