The Fed’s balance sheet could stabilize this year, but details are unclear.
The election outcome is unlikely to change the status quo for the Taiwan Strait, U.S.-China relations, or global markets which have seemed to price in geopolitical risk.
Emerging markets bonds issuance is already reaching record highs early in 2024. The Financial Times reported that EM debt issuance is already at $50 billion, opening opportunities in EM bond ETFs.
The Federal Reserve has fueled market conviction that the good old days of extremely low interest rates and abundant liquidity are soon to return. Our Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai sees this reaction as an excess of dovish enthusiasm that sets the stage for more volatility.
In 2023, the Federal budget deficit exceeded private and foreign saving, resulting in only the eighth year since 1929 with negative net national saving (to be referred to as NNNS).
“The current fiscal path is unsustainable”. This stark warning comes from the US Treasury Department’s Bureau of the Fiscal Service’s fiscal year-end projections1. Based on current appropriations and tax law, these projections display steadily rising federal spending and flat tax receipts, as a percentage of GDP.
Bond traders abandoned wagers that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in March, pushing swap rates to levels consistent with only about 50% odds of a quarter-point reduction in the federal funds target during the first quarter.
Why we believe small companies present key opportunities to tap into the heart of innovation and expansion in emerging markets.
Economic data has provided encouragement for both stock market bulls and bears.
The market has taken a one-sided view on inflation and the Fed's reaction to it, even though other very plausible explanations exist. This illustrates both the power of narrative and the vulnerability of the current consensus.
Markets in 2023 kept investors on the edge of their seats. Groundbreaking technological advancements, mega-popstars being blamed for summertime inflation, and a December Fed pivot were just a few of the plot twists.
The long-awaited spot bitcoin ETFs are trading after a decade of waiting. So now the ETF and advisor community has some available brain capacity to look forward. In a month, many will be in Miami, Florida to kick off the Exchange conference. I can’t wait.
I asked our authors and guest contributors the following question: Given the availability of spot bitcoin ETFs, would you recommend them (or any other cryptocurrency allocation) to your clients?
Digital events are more environmentally friendly than in person ones, but did you know that studies show that marketing webinars generate as much as five times more qualified leads than the same budget spent on marketing seminars?
We have read plenty of analysis on what the Federal Reserve (Fed) should do as it decides when to start lowering interest rates this year. Much of the analysis is well-intentioned as well as based on very good arguments.
Bitwise’s Matt Hougan answers all of the key questions surrounding how spot bitcoin ETFs actually work. VettaFi’s Todd Rosenbluth offers perspective on the launch of spot bitcoin ETFs and highlights the latest VettaFi polling data on advisor crypto usage. Calamos’ Matt Kaufman explains the brand new Calamos CEF Income & Arbitrage ETF (CCEF).
Here are five ways to clean up your writing and make it easier for people to read.
Bond traders are growing more convinced that US yields are heading lower as they bet on a series of Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts, yet the path to cheaper borrowing costs is set to be extremely bumpy.
Interest rates are one of the most important factors affecting the economy and the outlook for stocks. Managers increasingly think interest rates in the U.S. have likely peaked and are repositioning equity portfolios for the new environment.
Municipals experienced their strongest two-month performance since 1986 during the final two months of 2023.
As 2024 kicks off, we’re sitting down with ClearBridge Investments’ Head of Economic and Market Strategy, Jeff Schulze.
Wall Street is doubling down on their bond bets for 2024. The notion that rate cuts are finally coming in 2024 spurs this movement. That said, here are a trio of exchange traded funds (ETFs) from Vanguard worth noting.
With the Federal Reserve poised to begin cutting interest rates this year, the dollar may drift generally downward. However, its performance against individual currencies may vary widely.
Beware of investing in cash with a plan to extend maturities when the yield curve is no longer inverted. My research shows that this decision is historically difficult to time.
Many of the commentators on my articles claim, as does Chris Christie, that Social Security is a safety net. It is not.
In the latest episode of our Alternative Allocations podcast, Franklin Templeton Institute’s Tony Davidow discusses the secondaries market in private equities with Taylor Robinson, partner of Lexington Partners.
Corporate bonds delivered solid gains last year. And market observers expect more of the same in 2024. But it’s important to note that the consensus is leaning toward investment-grade over junk-rated corporate issues.
Having now spent almost six months describing the historical cycles and massive debt that surround us, I find myself looking for an “easy” exit.
Risk assets surged to end 2023 as the Federal Reserve blessed market hopes for rate cuts. That momentum could persist for some time as inflation cools.
US federal government debt ended 2023 at a record $34 trillion. The worries are bipartisan, with both Republicans and Democrats hearing about out-of-control borrowing from their constituents.
Guggenheim Investments’ Macroeconomic and Investment Research Group identifies 11 macroeconomic trends we believe are likely to shape monetary policy and investment performance this year.
A lot was going on with rates in 2023, yet, at the end of the year how different were things? The 10-year Treasury yield's lowest closing was 3.30%, while its highest close was 4.98%.
Earnings season starts Friday as major investment banks report, and the focus is on rates.
What’s ahead for fixed income markets in 2024? Join us to hear BondBloxx’s investment strategist, JoAnne Bianco, CFA®, discuss key themes across fixed income asset classes and portfolio positioning ideas.
On this episode of the “ETF of the Week” podcast, Tom Lydon discussed the PIMCO Enhanced Short Maturity Active ETF (MINT) with Chuck Jaffe of “Money Life.” The pair talked about several topics regarding the fund to give investors a deeper understanding of the ETF overall.
The hype around US spot Bitcoin ETFs has reached meme levels akin to pandemic-era laser eyes: Crypto prices are soaring, hackers are mobilizing and Redditors are pumping. But the promise of game-changing, gold-like adoption looks like a meme too far.
As the financial industry grapples with the shift to shorter settlement times, banks and broker-dealers will soon have a new artificial intelligence tool to fix and prevent trades that go awry during the settlement process.
2023 proved to be another year when the consensus views were not correct. A few of these views that turned out non-prescient were that inflation would remain elevated in mid-single digits or higher, higher interest rates would crush housing prices, consumer spending would collapse, and oil prices would continue to rise.
Roaring inflation and rapid rate hikes have brought a welcome return of the kind of big swings and dislocations beloved by investing’s smart set, but it hasn’t been a blessing for every breed of quant.
While headline payroll growth was relatively strong in December, weaker details under the surface continue to paint a mixed labor market picture.
The turmoil in the bond market over the past three years has been dramatic. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury has risen approximately 360 basis points since the beginning of 2021, and it nearly hit 5% in late October. That has caused investors to question the value and role of a fixed-income allocation within portfolios. But two nagging uncertainties – the Fed and inflation – should be less of a problem as we enter 2024. Despite the recent volatility and negative returns, there are clear and compelling opportunities for investors willing to take the long view and evaluate fixed income from a historical perspective.
Take this little “acid” test, and you will know if a subscription model could work for your practice.
In this piece we compare two ways to take advantage of the USD’s richness versus emerging market currencies: EM equities and EM local currency debt. We believe that for relative value, diversification, and potential alpha reasons, EM local currency debt deserves a prominent place in portfolios today.
What if I like running my practice the way we are right now?
Blackstone Inc.’s private equity fund for wealthy individuals is a harbinger of two trends that many expect will transform investment management in the next decade.
Advisor Perspectives has announced its Venerated Voices™ awards for commentaries published in 2023.
Rates are heading down, volatility will increase and there is a 75% chance of a recession in 2024, according to Jeffrey Gundlach.
Right around the start of November, two words suddenly disappeared from the chatter in the bond market: debt supply.
The 60/40 portfolio has long been the foundation of portfolio construction. But over the past two years, this portfolio strategy has broken down. The 60/40 portfolio faces several challenges. To understand what might lie ahead, investors need to assess both recent inflationary forces and historic trends.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) left the door so wide open after the end of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in mid-December 2023, that markets have run ahead and have continued to push long-term rates lower since the decision was announced.
