From a very weak retail sales report for January 2024 to stronger inflation readings as well as increases in credit card and auto loan delinquency rates during the last quarter of 2023, the picture for consumer demand has weakened considerably.
As measured by the S&P Select Sector Real Estate Index, real estate stocks are struggling this year, as that gauge is lower by 3.47%. However, some market observers remain constructive about real estate stocks. This indicates there could be opportunities in the space for selective investors.
The REIT sector has faced many challenges over the past few years, including COVID-related closures and tightening monetary policy. Franklin Equity Group Portfolio Managers Blair Schmicker and Daniel Scher discuss how a return to pre-pandemic monetary policy could mean a promising 2024 for publicly traded real estate.
Recently I saw a T-shirt for sale that said, “Science Doesn’t Care What You Think.” I used a similar metaphor recently, observing how many experiments show that jumping off a cliff will send you rapidly downward. If you want to test that theory, please add me to your will first.
NVIDIA reported financial results for the fourth quarter and full-year 2023 this week, and I’m still picking my jaw off the floor.
A Fidelity International money manager has sold the vast majority of US Treasuries from funds he oversees on expectations the world’s biggest economy still has room to expand.
Immigration is a vital source of economic growth.
The importance of major canals to global trade cannot be underestimated. Franklin Templeton Institute’s Kim Catechis highlights some of the challenges they face, including militant attacks and climate change.
Short-term bonds are generally defined as debt with maturities of one to three years. Additionally, these bonds come in a variety of forms, including Treasuries.
Three consecutive quarters of strong growth have put productivity either back on trend or well above it, depending on which recent trend line you’re following. Productivity’s sharp rise and fall from 2020 to 2022 was apparently just another one of those weird pandemic phenomena, now disappearing in the rearview mirror.
Slower inflation was supposed to be a sign that the economy was cooling, all part of the Federal Reserve’s plan for higher interest rates to restore balance to the economy. For a while, things looked on track.
Short-term bond yields are high currently, but with the Federal Reserve poised to cut interest rates investors may want to consider longer-term bonds or bond funds.
NVIDIA’s spectacular quarter and forecast are dominating headlines this week.
Cash may still be king for the moment, but after more than $1 trillion flowed into money-market funds last year as short-term rates rose, investors are trying to figure out where it goes next.
All three major American stock indexes stormed to fresh all-time highs Thursday as Nvidia Corp.’s results rekindled faith that breakthroughs in artificial intelligence will boost profits and give stock prices further room to run.
GMO has published a new 7-Year Asset Class Forecast.
The Magnificent Seven stocks (Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta, and Tesla) have been the largest driver of equity returns in recent years and were again the dominant contributors in 2023, accounting for more than half of the market increase.
Many investors remain in cash, but we think it’s time to shift exposure to bonds.
Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest gathering show most officials remained more worried about the risk of cutting interest rates too soon than keeping them high for too long and damaging the economy.
Regarding the surprisingly strong employment data, Fed Chair Powell said the quiet part out loud. The media hopes you didn’t hear it as we head into a contentious election in November.
One of the pleasant surprises of 2023 was how quickly inflation decelerated in major economies. Most of the good news came from falling goods prices.
Higher for longer. This was the key message to me from advisors and ETF industry folks at the Exchange conference when talking about fixed income.
None of the Magnificent Seven companies existed in the heyday of the Nifty Fifty, but a unique valuation and narrative thread aligns the companies.
Walmart leads the way as major retailers start weighing in on a positive year for consumer spending. But will it hold true as individual companies report results?
We think market optimism can persist for now but stay nimble. We get more active in our long-term portfolios given a greater dispersion of returns.
A key economic mistake people make is thinking growth leads inflation. One reason they do that is because inflation is a monetary phenomenon. When money is too easy, first growth rises, and then inflation rises with a longer lag due to excess dollars in the system.
This year continues to follow in the footsteps of 2023, marked by increased investor optimism but ongoing uncertainty. For now, much remains unknown, and a higher January inflation print only proves the challenges that still lie ahead.
Patience is required when embracing long-dated bonds and corresponding exchange traded funds. In standard market environments, intraday price action for long duration Treasurys usually isn’t breathtaking. Nor are investors expecting it to be.
Relatively hot inflation reports might be blips, but they reinforce why the Fed's rate-cutting cycle might be more gradual, which could be a better backdrop for stocks.
Financial markets have lately been intensely focused on the US Federal Reserve’s next moves: How soon will it start cutting interest rates, and how low will it take them this year?
Just months after setting a 2024 target for the S&P 500 Index, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists have boosted their forecast for a second time, reflecting Wall Street’s optimistic outlook for earnings.
Investors are beginning to war-game how the Federal Reserve can manage a US economy that just won’t land, with some even debating whether interest-rate hikes will be needed only weeks after a steady run of reductions appeared all but certain.
While the bulls remain entirely in control of the market narrative, divergences and other technical warnings suggest becoming more cautious may be prudent.
Sentiment data is beginning to match relatively strong "hard" economic data.
Even at the risk of sounding like a parrot by repeating the same thing again and again, we think that it is, once again, appropriate at this time to do so: “One data point doesn’t a trend make.”
In this video, Chuck Carnevale, Co-Founder of FAST Graphs, a.k.a. Mr. Valuation, and Professor Nathan Mauck, will discuss insights on European dividend growth stocks. They will analyze several stocks, highlighting their consistent earnings growth, dividend records, and fair value multiples.
When consumers fall behind, the credit card bill goes unpaid.
The deceleration of the core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) inflation rate in the second half of 2023 catalyzed a pivot in monetary policy messaging and shifted market pricing for the path of policy rates in 2024.
If you’re a parent or grandparent, you may know of the “Choose Your Own Adventure” storybook series. Written in second person, they make “you” the hero.
More than just demographics, Head of Franklin Templeton Institute Stephen Dover and Investment Strategist Kim Catechis think education and government policy are of critical importance to economic growth.
Secure lifetime income is a top wish-list item for defined contribution plan participants, and it has benefits for plan sponsors too. But there are very different ways to deliver it.
US new-home construction fell in January, indicating the recovery in the housing market will be gradual as many buyers await a further decline in mortgage rates.
Approximately 80% of all S&P 500 companies have reported fourth-quarter earnings as of today, and of those, 75% have reported earnings per share (EPS) above estimates. That’s well above the 10-year average, according to FactSet.
January’s US inflation print came as an unwelcome spoiler for financial markets, dealing what looks like the final blow to hopes of a March interest-rate cut, sending bond yields back up and triggering a major one-day correction in equities.
US retail sales broadly declined in January, indicating consumers took a breather after a strong holiday shopping season.
Stephen Dover, Head of Franklin Templeton Institute, recently hosted a discussion with Michael Buchanan, Co-Chief Investment Officer, Western Asset Management, and Brendan Circle, Portfolio Manager, Franklin Income Investors. The group considered the current market environment as it pertains to cash in client portfolios. Has cash reached a tipping point?
It’s tempting to dismiss the response to Tuesday’s inflation data as an outsized reaction to a slight miss in numbers that are particularly vulnerable to seasonal noise. Yet the development is also indicative of deeper issues whose influence may well be with us for the next few months and quarters.
Bond traders are turning their attention to the latest reading on inflationary pressures in the US economy as concern mounts the recent selloff has further to run.
In the face of still elevated inflation, the U.S. consumer remains a force to be reckoned with. Obviously, that’s a plus for the consumer discretionary sector and ETFs such as the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Consumer Discretionary ETF (RSPD).
Japanese stocks were standout performers in 2023 after years of stagnation and deflation left Japan an unloved investment destination. Can the positive momentum continue in 2024? BlackRock’s Belinda Boa believes it can and sees the makings of a rags-to-riches story with staying power ― and abundant investment potential.
