The Good News/Bad News Economy

No Imminent Danger
Not Quite Reassuring
Frustrating Data
“Not Restraining Anything”
We (Still) Want to Hear from You
Mill Valley, Florida, and Thoughts

Recently I saw a T-shirt for sale that said, “Science Doesn’t Care What You Think.” I used a similar metaphor recently, observing how many experiments show that jumping off a cliff will send you rapidly downward. If you want to test that theory, please add me to your will first.

But it’s different when the “science” is economics. Using that kind of analysis, we would observe that jumping off a cliff works more like Wile E. Coyote did it. You might or might not fall but if you do, you can first stand there in mid-air for a minute. This is what they call “lagged effects.”

Of course, the economy is far more complex than coyotes vs. gravity. We don’t even know what all the inputs are, much less know with any certainty what they will produce. The best we can do is get in the general vicinity of correct. Oftentimes, we struggle just to get the direction right.