The labor market continues to normalize and soften, but we think any further weakening might push the Fed to cut rates before the 2% inflation target is reached.
It’s inevitable. A recession is coming. Whether it gets here next month, next quarter, next year, or next decade will be continuously debated until it arrives. Yet, one thing that everyone will agree on is that we will have another recession eventually.
There’s more evidence that growth is slowing, but it appears manageable and unlikely to lead to recession. While rate cuts have begun outside the US, we expect the Fed to follow suit by December. Political developments, especially the election cycle, are now coming into frame.
Last week we had our quarterly live call for Yield Shark subscribers. We had some great conversations over the course of the hour. One of the major topics that came up was what will happen through the end of the year. Will we see a correction or a rotation? If so, when will this happen? And most important, how can we prepare?
The employment report from last Friday, in my view, was weak. Although the headline number came in slightly above expectations, the composition was troublesome, with more than 110k jobs subtracted from the last two months and private sector jobs lagging.
We aren’t naturally cynical about economic data, but there are things that don’t add up about the job market.
The addition of Dell Technologies and Super Micro boosted the weighting to the technology sector. We also analyze changes to the value and growth indexes.
Despite the Fed’s “significant progress” in lowering inflation, most citizens are outraged and confused by economists’ relatively rosy inflation observations. Most citizens believe inflation is still rampant.
Investors may want to opt for a middle-ground solution for yield and rate risk with intermediate bond funds.
The bond trade that some of Wall Street’s biggest banks say will dominate the rest of 2024 is gaining steam before a crucial inflation reading that will help seal the wager’s fate.
Hedge funds piled into short bets against Tesla Inc. right before the electric vehicle maker unveiled a set of numbers that triggered a hefty share-price rally.
The reason I mention silver, oil and gold is because they were the top performing commodities in the first half of 2024. Let’s dive into what’s driving these trends and what they might mean for investors.
Philanthropy is not a substitute for government action in areas like health, education, and the distribution of income and wealth, but it can advance public goods and improve human well-being. The key is to design institutions that deliver the reputational benefits that donors crave.
Tariffs do more harm than good to nations that impose them.
Having hit 31 record highs since January and up more than 15% year to date, the S&P 500 is off to its best start to the year since 2019 and the best start to an election year ever, driven by mega-cap tech stocks and artificial intelligence (AI) tailwinds.
In trying to block China’s climb up the ladder of technological sophistication, the US may inadvertently be giving its rival a hand up.
US hiring and wage growth stepped down in June while the jobless rate rose to the highest since late 2021, bolstering prospects that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates in coming months.
A US-led effort to gradually disconnect trade ties with China, rising costs, and a broader understanding of the need to diversify production is driving manufacturers to invest in alternative locations.
The expert and you are in a car and the expert is driving. After awhile, you notice that the expert is driving the car by looking through the rearview mirror. Concerned you ask him why he’s not looking ahead as he drives.
If you told me at the beginning of the year that we were going to go from starting with six interest-rate cuts to now we’re hoping to get one, I would be shocked to say that the equity markets are up 15%.
We’re borrowing from the upcoming Paris Summer Olympics for our quarterly theme – with a twist. Instead of using the most popular events (like gymnastics, swimming, and track & field) to express our views, we’ll go beyond the spotlight.
Ongoing budget deficits linger amid the post-COVID economic recovery. While markets appear unconcerned now, the accumulation of debt may exhaust investor patience. Anxiety about the sustainability of the nation’s debt could escalate with the upcoming elections in November. In part one of our series, let’s look at fiscal policy and Treasury debt.
Global X’s Rohan Reddy goes in-depth on the investment case for uranium and the Global X Uranium ETF (URA). VettaFi’s Kirsten Chang recaps second quarter ETF flows and looks ahead to the remainder of 2024.
As promised, the European Commission is getting tough on big tech. Buoyed by what it sees as the successful implementation of the General Data Protection Regulation, or GDPR, regulators are now going full tilt with their feistier legislation on anti-competitive behavior and improper use of personal data.
The dearth of private equity deal-making has been a nightmare for big investment banks used to getting 20% to 30% of their total advisory revenue from the industry.
Owning only the U.S. stock market likely means being overweight Tech. But Tech stocks don't always outperform. Investors may want to look outside the U.S. to be diversified.
In this piece, we attempt to answer a number of questions we have gotten from clients about the impacts that rising levels of passive investing may have had on the stock market.
Don’t miss out. Prepare to take advantage of opportunities in the second half.
June of 2024 was a good month for financial markets. Leading the pack were (again) technology stocks, with the NASDAQ up 6% on the month. Close in second place were emerging market ex-China stocks, largely driven by India, Taiwan, and South Korea, all of which had large rallies in the month.
On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Senior Director and Chief Investment Strategist for North America, Paul Eitelman, and Regional Director for North America Advisor & Intermediary Solutions, Lam Guluka, discussed key market themes from the second quarter.
Making a case for emerging markets (EM) investing has never been straightforward.
Doug Drabik discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
Unlocking your practice's full potential involves strategic planning and a comprehensive understanding of these critical factors. Whether you’re planning an exit or aiming for growth, these insights will help you maximize your practice's value.
We are contrarians and oddly crave the moments when history, psychology and mathematics get defied in the U.S. stock market. We believe this is one of those points in time.
Financial giants from Goldman Sachs & Co. to Morgan Stanley and Barclays Plc. are taking a fresh look at how a Donald Trump victory in November could play out in the bond market.
Bridgewater Associates is launching a fund that uses machine learning as the primary basis of its decision-making.
Economists and some Federal Reserve officials are increasingly on alert that pain could be on the horizon for American workers amid signs the labor market is losing steam.
To protect your investments and ensure they retain their value over time, you must implement proactive strategies that combat the effects of inflation. In this article, we discuss seven strategies to help shield your investments from inflation’s impact.
How safe is your IRA? Not from economic ups and downs, but from your own vulnerability to scammers? While financial scams are often perceived as targeting senior citizens, younger generations are equally susceptible.
Economic indicators are released every week to provide insight into the overall health and performance of an economy.
Key Takeaways
The Generation X report released by Natixis Investment Managers included a check of investment sentiment and opportunities for advisors.
Although this missive is tabbed as a 3rd quarter expository, it strikes home more as a 2025 conundrum because contained in the current data is a cause and effect that we believe is clearly being overlooked. Let’s begin with the fact that the stock market averages are trading at record highs.
For married couples, typically those who have a high net worth, a Spousal Limited Access Trust (SLAT) could be an efficient wealth-preserving strategy. These irrevocable trusts allow one spouse to transfer assets such as cash, marketable securities, real estate, and life insurance, to a trust that benefits the other spouse.
In this piece, I demonstrate that small-cap equities become increasingly attractive for investors with longer investment horizons.
With crypto going mainstream, it’s important that advisors understand the pros and cons of including crypto in a portfolio.
As we approach the halfway point of the year, all eyes remain on Federal Reserve policy and the pace of inflation’s downward trend. Central banks are becoming more dovish, but when will the much-anticipated rate cuts materialize? We’ve identified six key themes we believe will influence the Fed and impact investors in the second half of 2024. Spoiler alert: Periods of volatility are likely and will provide opportunities to episodically add risk.
Rick Rieder and team argue that the economy is making further progress towards normalization and continues to offer a once-in-a-generation investing opportunity, which isn’t adequately represented by the benchmarks.
Initial rate cuts by the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada may signal a transformative trend toward monetary easing.
Retail trade sales in the U.S. are reported by distribution channel. For example, gasoline sales are reported through the gasoline stations distribution channel, although those gasoline stations’ sales also include everything else sold at gasoline station convenience stores, i.e., hot dogs, tobacco, sodas, gum, chips, coffee, etc.
