The U.S. government shutdown is about to enter its second month. We did not rush to comment on it, because we didn’t think that it would have much of an economic impact. But the risk that lasting damage will be done is rising.
The market has become much less cyclical over time, and valuations have increased alongside growth and quality.
As global rate pressures ease and fundamentals strengthen across key economies, conditions appear increasingly favorable for EM local bonds and currencies.
Everyone is wondering if we’re in another tech bubble. Tech companies are breaking valuation records, with Nvidia Corp. leading the charge. On Wednesday, it became the first company ever to reach a $5 trillion market cap.
For the second straight meeting, the Fed cut the federal funds rate by a quarter percent on Wednesday. In an even more aggressive move toward monetary easing, the FOMC also announced balance sheet reduction will end in December.
Five of the so-called “Magnificent Seven” firms reported earnings this week in a major milestone for 2025’s economic narrative. Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), Google (GOOGL), and Meta (META) all shared their earnings, offering some important insights into key tech firms amid the AI revolution.
My series on Ray Dalio’s book raised a bunch of questions, one of which stood out above the others. To paraphrase, readers asked, 'How do we get ready for this?' It is certainly fair for you all to ask what I am personally doing to prepare for the big picture I anticipate. It’s tough to answer because the coming debt crisis could unfold in many different ways.
Gold is not immune to market cycles. It’s a volatile asset driven by shifting narratives and capital flows. If you’re buying gold today, understand what’s supporting the price, and what could shake that support loose. Treat gold as a hedge, not a core growth asset.
One of the things we have in common with Warren Buffett is that we started our risk-taking career handicapping at racetracks. Buffett handicapped the horse races in Omaha, and I handicapped greyhound races near Portland at Multnomah Kennel Club in Gresham, Oregon.
As transition consultants, we read a lot of press releases announcing financial advisors moving to new broker-dealers. You probably don’t torture yourself by doing that, but it’s part of our job.
The federal government shutdown shut off the steady stream of economic reports relied on by investors to gauge the health of the economy and financial markets. However, the much-anticipated September Consumer Price Index (CPI) report was released last week, as it was needed to determine cost-of-living adjustments for Social Security payments.
The Federal Reserve lowered its policy interest rate by 25 basis points, as widely expected. However, dissenting votes may cloud the path forward.
We see the global economy as undergoing a period of “global rewiring” on a number of fronts—evolving patterns and relationships that we anticipate affecting certain economies and markets for some time to come. Such rewiring could cover relationships between countries or developments within particular regions or economies.
China’s ability to sustain fairly robust economic growth despite a massive property sector downturn is now facing new tests as global trade barriers rise, and domestic demand shows fresh signs of weakness.
Stock valuation answers a deceptively simple question: What is a business truly worth? Price is what you pay; value is what you get.
Global electricity demand is accelerating as AI data centers, electrification, and economic growth drive an unprecedented need for reliable energy. Nuclear power is uniquely positioned to meet this challenge, delivering clean, zero-emission baseload electricity with the highest capacity factor of any major energy source.
Last week’s economic narrative centered around the Federal Reserve's latest rate cut, a decision complicated by the government shutdown and lack of economic data.
Over nearly every meaningful time frame, Bitcoin has dramatically outperformed traditional asset classes. In the last 3 years, it has returned an astonishing 79.2% annualized, compared to 18% for the S&P 500, 24.4% for gold, and just 2.6% for the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index.
Rather than toil over the construction of an ideal fixed income portfolio for a client, advisors can simply apply a template primed for success using Vanguard’s model portfolios. On that note, Vanguard just introduced two new dynamic asset allocation fixed income model portfolios that can suit various investor profiles.
Effectively reading the Federal Reserve's Beige Book can help investors spot economic, industry, and consumer trends that could potentially impact investment portfolios.
One of the most fundamental decisions facing fixed-income investors is determining the optimal maturity for their Treasury holdings.
We continue to hold gold across all strategies, viewing it as a strategic asset. Central banks remain steady buyers, underscoring gold’s role as both a store of value and an inflation hedge.
The three themes we laid out will take a few years to play out, if at all. Our portfolio positioning reflects our belief in the economic strength and momentum of the US Tech / AI trade, and we would want to see more policy clarity and earnings confirmation before we make any large shifts into international.
This bull market has been on quite a run. The S&P 500 is up 35% since its April 8, 2025 year-to-date low, and up over 92% since it began on October 12, 2022, excluding dividends.
The Federal Reserve’s October rate cut, to 3.75%–4%, signals a continued “risk management” approach, with December’s policy path tilting toward another cut.
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday announced a widely anticipated 25-basis-point (bp) rate cut, bringing the federal funds target range to 3.75%–4.00%. With markets priced for this move and the Fed operating in a data vacuum due to the U.S. government shutdown, the rate cut and modest statement changes were largely uneventful.
The consumer sector was in sharpest focus during the conference. That wasn’t surprising, given the negative headlines surrounding fraud allegations at subprime auto financer Tricolor Auto Acceptance and its subsequent bankruptcy filing.
The politics of the government shutdown are about to get trickier. Today is Day 28 of the government shutdown. The Senate will be in session this week, but the House of Representatives remains in recess.
While many lessons have evolved over time, one maxim has never changed for children: look both ways before crossing the street. I reinforced with my children to then look again. We might not see everything on a quick glance, and traffic can change quickly.
The Multi-Sector Credit Team share perspectives on the fixed income market and their quarterly asset allocation ranking. They highlight a timely chart to watch, explore relative value opportunities, and provide insight on their latest asset allocation scores by fixed income sub-sector.
Regulatory changes and productivity gains could push growth to move even faster in the years ahead. But we are also still dealing with the uncomfortable process of moving away from government stimulus and massive deficit spending that have boosted growth numbers in the post-COVID era but were unsustainable.
As widely expected, the U.S. Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points for a second time this year. This gives fixed income investors an opportunity to reposition their portfolios with intermediate bonds or reconsider active exposure if they don’t have it already.
Doug Drabik discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
The Powell put is on. The Federal Reserve chairman tried to sound like a hawk, but the central bank’s actions were those of a dove.
Markets move fast, and in the ETF corner of the world, sometimes it feels like it’s practically impossible to keep up. Product development and proliferation have been so intense in recent months. New tickers are coming at us faster than ever.
Evan Harp sat down Axon’s Brady Lochte to talk about his practice, the Exchange conference, and the challenges facing advisors and their clients today.
The headline annual CPI came in at 3 percent, according to BLS data. That was up from 2.9 percent in August and 2.7 percent in July. It was the highest print since January, and up from a low of 2.4 percent in March.
Still-healthy demand and disciplined cost control are central themes for earnings, which continue to suggest a mostly resilient economy in light of government data darkness.
Two weeks ago, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) issued an updated World Economic Outlook. In it, the IMF edged up its global growth forecast for 2025, suggesting that U.S. tariffs haven’t turned out to be as damaging as the Fund anticipated in April.
Over the last 56 years, I’ve spent a lot of time making suggestions to clients regarding their investment processes and portfolios, and I’ve been on the client side as a member of various investment committees. But seldom have I been able to bridge the two, serving as an active participant in clients’ investment processes.
Part of the reason behind Japanese stocks’ discount to the U.S. is the profitability gap; the U.S. has a Return on Equity (ROE) of 18.3%, while Japan’s broad market has yet to break above 10% on that measure (though some forecasters believe Japan will get its act together).
This convergence creates a thrilling, unpredictable day for sports enthusiasts packed with drama. Interestingly, the financial markets are gearing up for their own version of a 'Sports Equinox' week. Just as fans juggle overlapping games on October 27, investors will face a crowded calendar of potentially market-moving events that have our attention.
Many owners treat succession planning like a one-time document when it can work better as an ongoing strategic process. A practical plan may include simple triggers (age, profit targets, debt ratios) that cue next steps, a regular review rhythm (quarterly check-ins, annual cap-table cleanups), and a basic “deal-ready” folder (clean financials, key contracts, customer mix).
The more things change, the more they stay the same. As widely expected, the Federal Reserve (Fed) cut interest rates by 0.25% at its October Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting yesterday.
Pave Finance, Inc. (“Pave”), the next-generation wealth management platform, has today announced its integration with Charles Schwab, the world’s largest registered investment advisory custodian and one of the largest retail brokerage firms.
We live in what Brett Arends claimed as“The Dumbest Stock Market In History,” but I believe it is potentially the most dangerous era. That phrase is not hyperbole as it reflects structural distortion, extreme valuations, and an investor base intoxicated by momentum and narrative.
As major tech firms report this week and next, investors will focus on how much they're spending on AI. Cloud competition is also top of mind, along with early iPhone 17 sales.
With the stock market in record-high territory and up about 35% off the April lows, market participants clearly haven’t been too scared lately. But that doesn’t mean there aren’t plenty of things to worry about.
Stocks have surged since their April lows, with demand especially high for higher-risk equities and technology stocks—including those issued by firms with unproven profitability. But economic growth is slowing, and trade-related uncertainty has yet to be resolved.
The robotics space is entering earnings season with positive momentum, as solid performance in Q3 has continued into October. This note recaps the key themes and performance drivers from the quarter for investors, while previewing Q3 results.
