Is it possible the Fed over-reacted to a natural disaster? There are two different types of “recessionary” events that occur throughout history. The first is a “business cycle” recession, which happens with some regularity as excesses build up in the economy. These cycles generally take 12-18 months to complete as those excesses are reversed.
The company is taking on the country’s large banks with services that will include a discount brokerage and robo adviser.
We're seeing that there are meaningful differences between the last downturn and this one.
For years I have been warning that during the age of permanent stimulus (which began in earnest with the Federal Reserve’s reaction to the dotcom crash of 2000), each successive economic contraction would have to be met with ever larger, increasingly ineffective, doses of monetary and fiscal stimulus to keep the economy from spiraling into depression.
Neil Howe foresaw a global crisis that would upend society. He didn’t know it would be a pandemic, but, throughout his career, he has been predicting a “fourth turning” – an event that would reshape societal norms and usher in a new generation of leaders.
We are big fans of Buffett’s theories about businesses with low capital requirements and the ability to throw off cash to owners. Unfortunately, he recently emphasized indexing and didn’t shy folks away from today’s glamour tech stocks which require more and more capital
I have created a series to serve as a one-stop guide to email marketing for financial advisors.
A compassionate society has both economic reason and ethical responsibility to provide a social safety net to its most vulnerable members. It is an act of both economic insanity and ethical corruption to provide a financial safety net to its most reckless speculators.
As European economies slowly start to come out of coronavirus lockdowns, it could be some time before growth returns to pre-crisis levels, according to David Zahn, our Head of European Fixed Income. He says the crisis has been another test for the European Union...
The economic effects from COVID-19 will be devastating. Stock and asset prices will fall dramatically and will take years to recover. U.S. Treasury yields will turn negative. Sell “risk-on” assets, increase cash, and buy Treasury bonds.
This year marks the 100th anniversary of the renowned investment firm Tweedy Browne. The firm was originally a broker, and one of its clients was Benjamin Graham. I interviewed six members of Tweedy, Browne’s investment committee.
The absence of a “V-shaped” recovery means trouble for policy makers, mortgage finance, and emerging markets.
The bitcoin halving that occurred this past Monday is only the third such event in the cryptocurrency’s 11-year history. In the months following the first and second halvings, bitcoin prices surged as it became abundantly clear that at some point in the near future, new bitcoin issuances will come to a halt.
I knew this letter’s topic months ago. It was going to be a review of the Strategic Investment Conference, which would have just concluded fabulously in sunny Scottsdale.
Why did stocks rise over the past month despite grim economic news? The Federal Reserve’s massive liquidity injection is one reason.
The Fama–French value factor, and value investing in general, has suffered an extraordinarily long 13.3 years of underperformance relative to the growth investing style. The current drawdown has been by far the longest as well as the largest since July 1963. Arnott, Harvey, Kalesnik, and Linnainmaa examine the potential causes of value’s underperformance and provide estimates of value’s performance relative to growth’s performance under different revaluation scenarios over the next decade.
Key watchpoints for China as it emerges from the COVID-19 crisis.
In terms of the long-term effect on economic outcomes, the disease is likely to be anything but an equalizer.
COVID-19 makes 2020 a good year for clients to consider a Roth conversion, says leading financial advisor Elizabeth “Lizzie” Evans.
The economic calendar is a normal one and is beginning to include data from after the start of the crisis. This week includes small business and consumer sentiment surveys, as well as April data for retail sales and industrial production. I will also be watching jobless claims, both new and continuing.
The First Eagle Overseas fund (SGOVX) has an exceptional 27-year history. Since its inception, it has returned 9.15% versus 4.03% for the MSCI EAFE index. It was originally managed by the legendary Jean-Marie Eveillard. I spoke with its current management team about how the fund has performed during the coronavirus crisis and why financial professionals should look to diversify outside the U.S. markets.
The recent market volatility has caused stress, fear and even panic. But that emotional toil can be alleviated by constructing what we call “dedicated portfolios,” rather than blindly following the precepts of modern portfolio theory.
Economic devastation will not heal itself in months or quarters and disappear, even if the virus does. The implications of bankruptcy and joblessness and a host of other financial, psychological, and societal issues dictate the path going forward.
Globally, there are two fundamental shifts happening in the current environment that are increasing the need for income-producing products. First, as baby boomers continue to retire from their work lives, the demand for investment income is likely to grow.
For more than a couple of months now, I’ve said that gold mining companies will have a strong first (and second) quarter thanks to higher metal prices. Stock prices, as you know, are largely driven by revenues and free cash flow (FCF).
Will inflation soar? Will monetary policies work as intended, and what precedent are they setting?
Last week I ran across a powerful essay by Morgan Housel, whom I knew when he wrote for The Motley Fool. He is now a partner at The Collaborative Fund and still writing. His article looks at five lessons from history that, on the surface, have nothing to do with coronavirus, Trump, China, the Fed, or any of our other usual topics.
COVID-19 and turbulence in the oil market have been reshaping daily life, economic fundamentals and market activity for weeks. Emerging markets, like the rest of the world, have been along for the ride.
I started in the business in a mutual fund call center right out of college in 1999 (DVD players were all the rage, Y2K panic was a thing and “Who Wants to be a Millionaire” was on). At that point, average annual returns were high for the S&P 500 and most mutual funds—until the bubble burst.
Given the surge in unemployment claims over the last month the US unemployment rate is expected to rise to 16% in April from just 4.4% in March. Shocking as that number is, we have no problem with that forecast.
Russell Investments has long held that it is possible to create investment value while incorporating values into the decision-making. In this blog post, we continue on that theme and highlight a small collection of securities that demonstrate doing well while doing good.
With the breathtaking uncertainty created by the Covid-19 pandemic, simple formulas no longer work. Here's what helps now to value investments.
With risk tolerance being tested for the first time in a decade, investors are reconsidering their risk appetites. Advisors have a plentiful choice of tools to assess investor risk tolerance. But the same isn’t true on the institutional side.
Vivek explains why we see a need and opportunity to adjust strategic portfolios in the wake of the pandemic.
This article describes the components necessary for special-needs planning.
I’ve pulled together the top five marketing questions I have received from the hundreds of advisors I’ve spoken to who are moving to independence.
You may not need to be active on every social media platform. It depends on the niche you target.
Given the deep disruptions in your life and your practice from COVID-19, what I will share may seem illogical.
Advisor Perspectives has announced its Venerated Voices™ awards for commentaries published in Q1 2020.
Your clients are typically blindsided before they come to me. They believe that Medicare is “free” or is largely subsidized because, “I paid into the system my whole life and now I have to pay what?”
I examine new research that offers a way to algorithmically determine how to draw down one’s savings.
In response to the COVID-19 pandemic governments imposed shelter in place rules for their citizens and issued orders to close all but essential business in their country. The collective impact resulted in an unprecedented global plunge in economic activity that threatens the existence of many small and medium size businesses...
Today is “reopening” day for Texas, home state of U.S. Global Investors. Restaurants, retail stores and malls can now open their doors to customers again, so long as occupancy is kept at 25 percent of what it normally would be.
The global coronavirus outbreak has changed everyday life in profound ways ― and will likely reshape the future as well. Tony DeSpirito identifies five areas of change that could have implications for investors.
Why is it that a fire on the other side of the planet attracts far more attention than a new innovation about to be rolled out, and how can investors take advantage of that? This is a question more relevant than ever, given the impact of the current Covid-19 outbreak.
In today’s uncertain investing world, I believe it is extremely important to first and foremost focus on safety and quality. Since my primary investment focus is now on dividends and dividend growth, safety to me is primarily about valuation along with dividend coverage and predictability.
Over the next several quarters, monetary conditions will likely be set not only by Fed balance sheet policies, but also by the expected path of interest rates.
How do we gauge the impact on global economy from the pandemic? Jean shares his thoughts.
I am working on five key action items with clients to address some of the financial uncertainty many are experiencing.
A range of services now aim expressly at helping celebrations continue, Covid-19 notwithstanding, whether you’re raising a glass to grown-ups or organizing a Harry Potter-themed scavenger hunt.
