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Ramen for Everyone
by Kenichi Amaki of Matthews Asia,
Matthews Asias investment team members regularly travel across Asia to conduct research. Between meeting with management teams, touring factories and catching flights from one destination to the next, we do, on occasion, need to eat. Sometimes its room service at midnight while typing up meeting notes, other times we may try some local food. For me, as a ramen lover, the growing number of ramen restaurants across Asia has been a real treat. Apparently, Im not alone in that thought.
Have Emerging Markets Gotten Oversold?
At Templeton, weve repeatedly championed our value-driven philosophy by frequently buying at times others are most pessimistic. This is not easy to do, even for seasoned market veterans. During the past few months, emerging markets have been subject to such pessimism. These periods of short-term volatility are certainly not new to us, and dont change our long-term conviction of the potential emerging markets hold.
The Price Clients Pay for Worst-Case Forecasts
by Bob Veres,
Clients and the world at large give inordinate attention to downside scenarios, and nobody is calling our attention to the much larger upside of our business and investment landscape. The human brain amplifies this effect, because it is hardwired to notice threats much more than opportunities. I recently spoke with Dennis Stearns ? an advisor who happens to be an expert in scenario planning ? about the role planners need to play to counteract media-driven negativity.
Emerging Markets Feel the Ripples of Fed Tapering
by Sam Wardwell of Pioneer Investments,
Many Emerging Market currencies (notably those of India, Brazil and Indonesia) have been weak since the beginning of May. The declines accelerated sharply in recent weeks, leading to something approaching panic in several markets last week.
Revisiting the USD Bull Market
The USD bull market has begun with signs that the USD is transitioning to a cyclical currency. Monetary policy divergences in G4, slowing in USD diversification and a dramatic turnaround in the twin deficits, provide a strong fundamental underpinning to a USD rally going forward.
5 China Charts That Look Bullish for Commodities
Over the past few months, investors have seen better economic data coming out of Europe. Consumer confidence in the continent has been rising, manufacturing data is improving and the fiscal situation is on the mend. Now, China appears to be strengthening as well, which could signal better times ahead. Below are five charts that look bullish for China and commodities. While not meant to be comprehensive, they do point to areas where investors might want to pay close attention.
Why We Still Like China
When China, the worlds second-largest economy and an engine of global growth, sneezes many other markets catch colds. A spike in the countrys short-term lending rate in June gave some investors the sniffles at least temporarily, while others have turned bearish on China amid concerns growth rates this year could be under the weather. However, many investors may be overlooking some powerful macro-economic long-term shifts taking place in the economy that could ultimately improve Chinas bill of health.
Asia Brief: On Economic Evolution in Cambodia
Cambodias recent national Assembly elections offer hope that the country may be able to achieve a peaceful political transition in the coming years. The countrys political turmoil has held it back behind its neighbors, but tourism and gar- ment assembly are driving an acceleration in economic output growth. However, Cambodia is at risk from inflation through imported petroleum, and its youthful population will want to see improving GDP per capita feeding through into higher living standards, rather than a higher hydrocarbon bill.
August Monthly Investment Bulletins
by Team of Bedlam Asset Management,
For the first seven months of the year the portfolio rose by 25.2% vs. 19.3% for the index. During the month, the 6.4% gain was 150 basis points ahead. Three trends continued: the gradual increase in fund flows into equity markets relative to other asset classes, slightly improving economic data across most developed countries, and a mild deterioration in many developing nations.
Pacific Basin Market Overview July 2013
by Team of Nomura Asset Management,
Asian markets ended higher in July after comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke appeared to infer that the Feds asset purchase program would be extended for a while longer. In China, Premier Li Keqiang stated that China would meet its gross domestic product (GDP) growth target this year, which brought some cheer to the markets. The MSCI AC Asia Pacific Free Index including Japan gained 1.5% while the MSCI AC Asia Pacific ex Japan Free Index closed 2.0% higher during the quarter.
When Filial Piety is a Legal Obligation
by Winnie Chwang of Matthews Asia,
Filial piety is a concept well-ingrained in many Asian cultures. Children are often taught to respect their elders, appreciate their hard work of parenting and to reciprocate that gratitude by looking after them in their old age.
The Telecommunications Services Sector Untethered and Poised to Grow
by Chuck Carnevale of F.A.S.T. Graphs,
Suffice it to say that the Telecommunications Services sector of today is not your grandfathers Telecommunications Services sector. The explosion, and rapidly becoming ubiquitous implementation, of wireless technologies have been disruptive and game changing. As a result, the very nature of the established stalwarts within this industry have gone through an extraordinary metamorphosis.
What Lies Ahead for China? McKinsey Lists 10 Forces
By 2022, research by McKinsey suggests that 75 percent of urban consumers in China will earn around $9,000 to $34,000. This income level, which is currently between the average earned in Brazil and Italy, is only 4 percent of what Chinese households were bringing home in 2000.
Dog Days of Summer Are Upon Us
by Blaine Rollins of 361 Capital,
Hopefully you are reading this from the beach, because there is so little news happening in the markets that those of us in the office are about to start making news up to justify stock price movements. But while news and volumes are at August lows, here are some thoughts that might ring a bell to help you to either make some money or to set down your smartphone and get back to the water.
Emerging Asia Pacific: Regional Economic Review - Q2 2013
by Team of Thomas White International,
Asias emerging nations, the darling of the world economy since the 2000s, uncharacteristically slowed in the first quarter of 2013. After a decade of robust growth, many of Asias fast-growing economies are coming to terms with structural changes. Asian currencies, which had appreciated quite a bit over the past few years thanks to ultra-loose monetary policy in the developed world, came tumbling down at the first talk of a slowdown in the supply of cheap money.
Developed Asia Pacific: Regional Economic Review Q2 2013
by Team of Thomas White International,
Many developed economies in the Asia Pacific region rebounded during the second quarter of 2013 to post a healthy set of growth and inflation numbers. Turning on the monetary spigots during the past one year provided a major fillip to many developed Asian economies. Countries that fumbled in the wake of natural disasters in the recent past, showed marked improvement. Even those countries that were said to be suffering from structural deficiencies, too, responded well to the monetary medicine administered by their various central banks.
China Struggles to Fight the Trend
by Chris Maxey, Ryan Davis of Fortigent,
Prior to the global financial crisis, decoupling was the word du jour. In the years since the crisis began, however, decoupling has vanished from the everyday lexicon. In recent weeks, the financial media noticed a new form of decoupling, one that shows improving growth prospects in the developed world but slower growth in developing economies. Rightly or otherwise, much of that slowdown is pinned on China and recent data continues to suggest a slower pace of growth than investors became accustomed to in prior decades.
Investment Advice Technology and How to Lose Money in the Coming Years
by Kendall Anderson of Anderson Griggs,
Adventures are good for my soul. They create wonderful memories, both of where I have been and all the effort it took to get there. All of us have memories, both good and not so good. I am a bit worried about the near term future.
Two Charts Illustrate How to ?Follow the Money?
Too often investors get caught up in their political allegiance or parties, focus on the negative and lose confidence in stocks. As a result, they can miss great bull markets. I believe when it comes to finding investment opportunities, it?s not about the political party, it?s about the policies, both monetary and fiscal.
Lack of US Economic Growth May Slow Fed Tapering
by Kevin Mahn of Hennion & Walsh,
While we are encouraged that the U.S. economy has been growing, as measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, for 15 consecutive quarters starting in the third quarter of 2009, we are concerned that the growth rate has been below that of previous economic recoveries and the economy appears to be stalling and struggling to get back above a 2% growth rate thus far in 2013.
Pennies from Heaven, Irrationality, and “Dys-information”
by Chris Richey of Neosho Capital,
If QE4 holds to course, ending, not just tapering, sometime in mid-2014, the U.S. will have spent 4+ years out of the past 6 living on monetary stimulus, all the while continuing to pile up ever more claims against future prosperity.
The U.S. Energy Revolution
In March 1971, the Texas Railroad Commission (TRC), which allocated oil production for the state of Texas, announced that producers in the state would be allowed a full allocation. This was the first time the TRC had allowed Texas producers to supply an unlimited amount of crude oil since WWII.
Who Let the Ferrari Out of the Garage?
by Blaine Rollins of 361 Capital,
With just three trading days left in the month, July is in the running for the title of least volatile month of the year, with the Standard & Poors 500-stock index averaging moves of just 0.39% this month through Thursdays close. That is lower than the 0.41% and 0.42% averages of January and March, respectively, when stocks were grinding slowly, but steadily higher.
China Property: A Tough "Bubble" to Pop
by Henry Zhang of Matthews Asia,
Irecently came across an old newspaper article from February 1989 that described Beijings residential property "bubble," with average selling prices then of about US$430 to US$510 per square meter. The article went on to say that, given that the average college-educated worker typically saved less than approximately US$13 per month, at those prices, it would take a century or so to be able to buy a two-bedroom apartment. The writer concluded that a housing bubble was underway.
Perspective
by Jim McDonald of Northern Trust,
Investors have faced a torrent of central bank actions and communications during the last month, and markets continue to differentiate among economies and companies a welcome maturation from the markets? prior regime of ?risk on/risk off.? We believe the Federal Reserve has moved from an easing bias to one of tightening but at an elongated pace that will remain data dependent. Joining in this parsimony are some key emerging-market central banks, including the People?s Bank of China, which is working to control credit risk in the Chinese economy.
Fantasy versus Factors
by Michael Nairne,
Investors who wish to earn market-beating returns have a choice. They can indulge in the fantastical quest for alpha via high-cost active managers or they can construct factor tilts in their equity allocations via low-cost exchange traded or enhanced index funds. It doesnt take a PhD in mathematics to determine which route is more likely to take an investor to higher performance.
Any Bonds Today?
Given the acknowledged limitations of the CPI, we nevertheless use it in myriad ways. It governs cost-of-living adjustments for Social Security beneficiaries, government employees, and many labor union members. CPI is baked into the general cake, even though we know it is an imperfect fit in almost every situation.
Challenging a Long-Held Assumption about Commodities
It is widely accepted that China spurred higher commodity prices in the past decade. And if the country was the force behind the boom, then the assumption is that China?s lower, but still healthy growth will be a drag on commodity prices. But recent research challenges this assumption.
Asia's Startup Incubators
by Jerry Shih of Matthews Asia,
As some of our readers may already know, Matthews Asia is headquartered in San Francisco and just north of Silicon Valley, home to some of the worlds largest technology corporations as well as a hotbed for tech startups. The rise of Silicon Valley has been bolstered by its connections to nearby Stanford University as well as to the emergence of the areas venture capital industry on Sand Hill Road since the 1970s. This energy and entrepreneurial culture has helped create many innovative ventures that have disrupted traditional businesses.
The Death of Disasterism
by Steven Vincent of BullBear Trading,
From late 2012 I have been gradually layering and developing the thesis that a secular bull market started in November of 2012 (with a possible revised start date of June 2012), ending the sideways secular bear market that started in 2000. Here are the basic components of that thesis through the last report.
ASEANSeeking Further Integration
by In-Bok Song of Matthews Asia,
Southeast Asia is pushing ahead with an economic initiative analogous to the E.U. called the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC). The 10-member bloc is striving to make this partnershipwhich envisions creating a single market and production base and developing closer economic ties both within the region and the broader global economya reality by 2015. In-Bok Song, takes a look at the benefits and hurdles that may be expected in this lengthy process for further integration of such aspects as liberalized trade, investment, skilled labor and free flow of capital.
Commodities 2013 Halftime Report: A Time to Mine for Opportunity?
It was a challenging first half of the year for most commodities, with only two resources we track on our Periodic Table of Commodities Returns rising in value. Natural gas and oil rose 6.5 percent and 5 percent, respectively, while silver lost a third of its value and gold lost a quarter of its price from the beginning of the year.
Hasenstab: Emerging Out of the Consensus Trade
Just when is a potential long-term reward worth the short-term risk? Investors are often most focused on the short-term pain of a particular event (hard to blame them), losing sight of possible outcomes farther out into the future. That could partially explain whats going on in the emerging markets right now, at least according to Michael Hasenstab, co-director of the International Bond Department, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group.
Pacific Basin Market Overview June 2013
by Team of Nomura Asset Management,
Equity markets in Asia ended generally lower in the second quarter of 2013 due to concerns over the U.S. Federal Reserves apparent shift towards a more balanced monetary policy stance following Chairman Bernankes statements suggesting a tapering of its asset purchase program.
Whitney George on 2Q13: Stocks Continue to Look More Appealing Than Fixed Income
by Whitney George of The Royce Funds,
In addition to detailing what sectors currently look attractive to him from a valuation standpoint, Co-CIO, Managing Director, and Portfolio Manager Whitney George discusses three stocks that exemplify his approach, the current case for active small-cap management, why stocks look more attractive than fixed income, and his opinions on the markets decline in late June.
Accessing Myanmar's Growth
Did you know that in the first half of the last century, Myanmar had twice the GDP per capita of China? What a difference a few decades and government policies make, as China is ten-fold the size of Myanmar today, according to UBS Research. The change in wealth between the two nations is a prime example of how government policies can have a tremendous effect on a countrys growth.
The Asian Giant Stampeding into Gold
In this environment, gold should remain attractive. However, as the West flees the precious metal, another set of gold buyers has come forward with the aim to preserve wealth. Take a look at the chart below which shows total gold production compared to the gold deliveries on the COMEX and the Shanghai Gold Exchange.
The Free-Trade Charade
The negotiations to create a free-trade area between the US and Europe, and another between the US and much of the Pacific (except for China), are not about establishing a true free-trade system. Instead, the goal is a managed trade regime managed, that is, to serve the special interests that have long dominated trade policy in the West.
Getting Back to Normal
Though markets were whipsawed by the announcement, the Feds plan to step aside and allow normalization is a good thing.
The primary risk to hedge is now economic growth and the strong equity returns it tends to produce not financial Armageddon. While risks in Europe and China persist, U.S. fundamentals look relatively strong. Its not too late for investors to move away from defensive positioning and back toward a standard allocation.
The 2013 Mid-Year Geopolitical Update
At mid-year, we customarily publish our geopolitical outlook for the second half of the year. This list is not designed to be exhaustive. As is often the case, a myriad of potential problems in the world could become issues in the second half of the year. The lineup listed below details, in our opinion, the issues most likely to have the greatest impact on the world. However, we do recognize the potential for surprises which we will discuss throughout the year in upcoming weekly reports.
Results 3,851–3,900
of 4,322 found.
