Search Results
Results 3,451–3,500
of 3,702 found.
There Will Be Haircuts
by Bill Gross of PIMCO,
It has been the objective of the Fed over the past few years to make even more innovative forms of money by supporting stock and bond prices at cost on an ever ascending scale, thereby assuring holders via a Bernanke put that they might just as well own stocks as the cash in their purses. Gosh, a decade or so ago a house almost became a money substitute. MEW or mortgage equity withdrawal could be liquefied instantaneously based on a never go down housing market. You could equitize your home and go sailing off into the sunset on a new 28-foot skiff on any day but S
The Most Underappreciated Threat to the Advisory Business
by Bob Veres,
Financial advisors have often heard the warning that their investment management services are going to become commoditized ? so often, in fact, that you can forgive them for ceasing to pay attention. But if you dont believe that an online algorithm can replace the sophisticated advice offered by a flesh-and-blood advisor, then check out the Wealthfront USA website.
Zebras?!
by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James,
We saw many outside zebras gorging themselves on stocks in late 2007 as the D-J Industrial Average (DJIA) made a new all-time high and then registered a Dow Theory sell signal in November 2007. Subsequently, those outside zebras ended up as lion lunch when the senior index shed an eye-popping 53% over the ensuing 17 months.
High Yield in a Rising Rate Environment
by Team of AdvisorShares,
We have all witnessed a major move in Treasury rates over the last couple months, causing concern for many that we may be in the early stages of a rising interest rate environment. The traditional thought is that as interest rates rise, bond prices fall. But looking at history, the high yield market has defied this widely held notion. This paper from Peritus Asset Management examines the main reasons why high yield bonds have historically performed well during times of rising interest rates.
The Cashless Society
A cashless future might be farther off than we either fear or hope. Not only is it farther away than some think, we are actually seeing an increase in the use of cash all over the world (and this is not just a US phenomenon). We will look at some interesting factoids that make for thought-provoking discussions, but when we couple them with research on the rise of the unreported economy (aka the underground economy) and the number of people who get some form of government assistance, we may find problematic consequences resulting from hidden incentives that work in unintended ways.
Many Of My Dividend Growth Stocks Have Become Overvalued, What Do I Do Now?
by Chuck Carnevale of F.A.S.T. Graphs,
To me, theres almost nothing better than finding a great company that I truly want to own at a fair valuation, or better yet, undervalued. In the long run, it has been my experience that this usually leads to outsized future returns, especially if you buy stocks when they are undervalued at the time. But there is quite often a side effect that can prove very disconcerting. Once an undervalued stock starts moving to the upside, momentum will often carry it above what prudent fair valuation would dictate.
A Playbook for Investors: How to Shoot, Score, Win
So, in the competitive spirit of the NBA playoff season, I?ve gathered a series of plays that investors can use to shoot, score and win during this year?s market. I?m happy to say they include all the elements of an exciting game, including a comeback kid, an upset and an underdog.
The Yin and the Yang of Commodity Price Trends
by Team of Northern Trust,
In recent weeks, financial press headlines have centered on the sharp drop in the price of gold. Of greater importance, however, are the significant price declines of oil, wheat, corn and copper. The S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index is down 6.1% year-to-date after a nearly steady reading in 2012 and gains exceeding 20% in both 2010 and 2011. It is essential to recognize the different nuances buried in these commodities price trends. First we will focus on the implications of declining commodity price trends and then discuss gold specifically in more depth.
No Escape
Global economic growth has weakened, while the US economy hasnt reached "escape velocity." US stocks have held up relatively well. With few other attractive alternatives, domestic equities appear to be the best house in a rough neighborhood. With the Fed committed to easing, housing improving, and valuations reasonable, the trend should continue. Risks remain and diversification and some hedging strategies are recommended.
Q1 2013 Market Commentary
The country now in the news is tiny Cyprus, which received a bailout for its banks from the European Union (EU), but only after agreeing to steep losses for those banks large depositors. Hitting up bank deposits represents a new dimension to the European debt crisis and illustrates how in a crisis, leaders can and often will resort to whatever means are necessary. When the Cypriots first requested a bailout from the EU and were told their depositors had to suffer, they balked and said that was unacceptable...
Europe's Sovereign Debt Problem: A Call for a Clear Destination
Without political commitment to a common fiscal destination, the long-term instability and market distortions within Europes capital markets are likely to intensify. To preserve the euro, the eurozone must develop federal fiscal policies that tackle significant economic, cultural and societal differences and define a credible roadmap to achieving structural reforms, a banking union, political union and fiscal union. Historical precedents in Europe may help guide the way.
Emerging Europe: Regional Economic Review
by Team of Thomas White International,
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) was established in 1992 to help Russia and former communist states such as Poland, Hungary, and Czech Republic among others in their transition to market-based economies. In its January forecast, the London-headquartered bank sounded optimistic over the economic prospects of most of the countries covered in this review, which also include Turkey.
Strategy for a Second Gear Economy
by David Kelly of J.P. Morgan Funds,
American investors could be forgiven for feeling just a little confused. One week after the stock market posted its strongest first-quarter gains since 1998, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced the weakest monthly job growth in nine months. Real GDP growth was just 0.4% in the fourth quarter but appears to have been much stronger in the first. So is the economy getting stronger or weaker, how is the Federal Reserve likely to react to it and what, if anything, should investors do about it?
Fed to End QE, Obama's Tax & Spend Budget
Today I tackle several topics, each of which could take up an entire E-Letter. But these topics are very important, and I want to address them today. The first is the minutes from the March 19-20 Fed Open Market Committee meeting that were released last Wednesday. Those minutes definitively confirm that the Fed is ready to chart an end to quantitative easing.
First Quarter Investment Commentary
by Team of Litman Gregory,
Looking ahead, significant uncertainty surrounds fiscal and monetary policy in terms of what policies will be adopted and their ultimate economic and financial market impacts. More broadly, still-high global debt levels pose an economic headwind. Against this backdrop, our outlook for stocks has not improved. If anything, given the sharp run-up in stock prices, we are getting closer to reducing our U.S. equity exposure further than we are to increasing it.
The Pharaoh's Dream
by Andrew Bosomworth of PIMCO,
As yields on assets decline, central banks ultra-loose monetary policies are effectively forcing investors further out the concentric circles into lower quality, more illiquid sectors in search of positive yielding assets after deducting inflation. In order to achieve 6%-7% returns in the future, investors may be required to take on more risk. Allocating part of a portfolio away from middle circle asset classes into assets with higher return potential as well as assets offering liquidity is the right strategy in our opinion.
Gold Buyers Get Physical As Coin and Jewelry Sales Surge
Even with the gold price dropping, why are gold coins selling at a premium? Its Economics 101: The coin supply is limited and the demand is high. This buying trend isnt only occurring in the U.S. In Bangkok, Thailand, for example, crowds of buyers were filling stores, eagerly waiting in multiple lines to purchase gold jewelry and coins.
Inflation and Interest Rates
by Scott Brown of Raymond James,
The Federal Reserve began its first asset purchase program in the fall of 2008, during the depth of the financial panic. Some observers feared that the Feds actions would fuel higher inflation. However, the Fed is now well along in its third asset purchase program and inflation (as measured by the PCE Price Index) has remained low. In fact, Fed officials expect that inflation will trend at or below the 2% target for the next couple of years. That hasnt stopped the inflation worrywarts from predicting that inflation is still just around the corner.
Fortune's Formula
by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James,
I reflected on mathematics, probabilities, and odds over the weekend after again reading the book Fortunes Formula: The Untold Story of the Scientific Betting System That Beat the Casinos and Wall Street, by William Poundstone. The book centers on Claude Shannon, who in the late 1940s had the idea computers should compute using the now familiar binary digits 0s and 1s such that 1 means on and 0 means off.
What's Driving Emerging Markets?
Emerging market (EM) equities have historically outperformed as the global economy gained momentum, as shown in Exhibit 1. After a great catch-up rally in the second half of 2012, the stocks finished the year as global outperformers only to lose that momentum in the first quarter of 2013. What is behind the recent underperformance, and what does it say about the outlook? Our research points to a number of contributors to the recent weakness.
Hyperactive Monetary Policy: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly
Hyperactive monetary policy (HMP) is in full force as fiscal policy retreats. The benefits of HMP outweigh the costs for now. Despite cyclical growth, we will likely not achieve escape velocity and eventually the costs will likely overtake the benefits.
2013 US Financial Markets
In the fall of 2012 the S&P 500 came close to our forecast high (S&P- 1500) Last year we suggested that not only was the S&P likely to reach 1500, but also speculated that renewed bullish sentiment could take us back to the old highs of 1565. When the S&P touched 1563 a couple weeks ago, I started getting client calls complimenting my prescient forecast.
Tax Day as Polarizing as Ever
by Chris Maxey, Ryan Davis of Fortigent,
Tax season is once again upon the American population, and this year, just as in years past, people are less than enthusiastic. It is estimated that the average taxpayer contributed slightly more than $11,000 dollars to federal taxes in 2012 and those figures are on the rise. As might be expected in the current backdrop, however, not everyone shares the same opinion on taxes.
Valuation Based Equity Market Forecasts - Q1 2013 Update
Click to viewWe endorse the decisive evidence that markets and economies are complex, dynamic systems which are not reducible to normal cause-effect analysis. However, we are willing to acknowledge the likelihood that the future is likely to rhyme with the past. Thus, we believe there is substantial value in applying simple statistical models to discover average estimates of what the future may hold over meaningful investment horizons (10+ years), while acknowledging the wide range of possibilities that exist around these averages.
Increasingly Immediate Impulses to Buy the Dip (or, How to Blow a Bubble)
by John Hussman of Hussman Funds,
A tendency toward increasingly immediate attempts by investors to buy every dip in the market reflects a broadening consensus among investors that there is no direction other than up, and that any correction, however, small, is a buying opportunity. As investors clamor to buy ever smaller dips at increasing frequency, the slope of the markets advance becomes diagonal or parabolic. This is one of the warning signs of a bubble.
And That's the Week That Was
by Ron Brounes of Brounes & Associates,
Another dayAnother record. With last weeks poor unemployment releases suddenly a distant memory, investors looked forward (and not backward) and took the Dow Jones and S&P 500 back into record-setting territory with a four-day winning streak. By weeks end, however, some key earnings reports disappointed and analysts became more concerned about the state of the consumer (though there is clearly no consensus on that front either).
ProVise Bullets
There may still be people rushing to the Post Office this afternoon or evening to get tax returns in the mailbox. Of course, many others will file for an extension. The first extension is for six months and is automatic. However, when you file your extension, you have to send in the money you think you will owe and file form 4868. If you dont file an extension, there is a 5% per month late filing fee. An underpayment could also be charged interest, and if the amount is significantly under what is owed there could be penalties as well.
How a Landslide Shifts Copper Supply
The U.S. mining industry was dealt a devastating blow as Kennecott Utah Coppers Bingham Canyon Mine experienced a pit wall failure causing a massive landslide with rocks and dirt covering the bottom of the mine pit. Its a miracle no one was hurt due to the vigilance of its owner, Rio Tinto. The landslide is just one example of how quickly and unexpectedly the supply and demand factors facing the red metal can shift, which underscores the need for nimble active management.
Assume a Perfect World
Waiting for our forecasts to be wrong before we adopt a yet another solution based on a temporary fix of yet another forecast that turned out to be wrong is no way to run a railroad, unless you want your train running off a cliff. I applaud the recent attempts in DC to come to a solution on the deficits and budget, but where are the leaders who want to get real with those forecasts?
Soft Patch - Part Four?
Stocks continue to trade at all-time highs, but concerns are rising over a possible pullback and downturn in economic growth. A consolidation of gains is likely, but trying to trade around a pullback can be quite difficult. A potential tapering of Fed asset purchases continues to be discussed, but the Fed also appears nervous over the potential for a spring downturn. Cooler heads appear to be gaining traction in Washington and at least some marginal progress is being made. Economic improvement is gaining traction in Japan, raising hopes of sustainable change, while Europe continues to suffer.
Pacific Basin Market Overview
by Team of Nomura Asset Management,
Supportive U.S. economic data drove most markets higher during the first quarter of 2013. China underperformed the region amid concerns that the economic recovery may not be as robust as previously expected, while the National Peoples Congress in March failed to provide any incentives to the equity market given the absence of pro-growth policies. The MSCI AC Asia Pacific Free Index including Japan gained 5.5% while the MSCI AC Asia Pacific ex Japan Free Index closed 2.0% higher during the quarter.
Economic Slowdown Halts Equity Rally
by Bob Doll of Nuveen Asset Management,
The latest softness in economic indicators probably means that more consolidation in the equity markets is required before we can advance beyond the recent all-time highs. During March, nearly all of the activity for the S&P 500 was within 1% of 1550. Equities may move lower due to deteriorating technical conditions and the possibility of weak first quarter earnings reports.
Labor Markets Stumble in March
by Ryan Davis, Chris Maxey of Fortigent,
In an unexpected development, labor markets fell flat during March. Following several months of healthy job growth, the economy was only able to muster 88,000 new jobs in March, well below economists expectations for nearly 200,000 jobs.
The Theology of Inflation
We begin this week with a simple pop quiz. Is inflation good or bad? Answer quickly. I?m sorry your answer is wrong. Or rather, we can?t know if your answer is right or wrong because we are not sure what is meant by the question. We may think we know and we may be right but we can?t be sure, because the word inflation has different meanings for different people in different places and different times. In fact, even the same people in the same place and time can?t agree on a precise definition.
Teachings from Recovered Markets
Domestic indices all-time record highs indicate that U.S. domestic equity markets have largely recovered from the 2008 Great Recession. It may have taken four years but it still seems a remarkable achievement given the Dows low of 6620 in March 2009. It is worth noting that prior highs were attained in an era with a poor savings rate and wide use of levered strategies. The last four years were widely characterized by a low return market mantra and fear of equities stoked by many doomsayers, pundits, and strategists who greeted every upturn with pessimism.
Absolute Return Letter: The Need for Wholesale Change
The seeds of the next crisis have probably already been sown as a consequence of the lax monetary policy currently being pursued. Frustrated with the lack of direction from political leaders, most recently witnessed in the handling of the crisis in Cyprus which was a complete farce, central bankers from around the world are likely to demand change, but politicians will have to be pushed into a corner before they will respond to any such pressure. Hence nothing decisive will happen before the next major crisis erupts.
Hello 2nd Quarter and Hello Baseball
by Blaine Rollins of 361 Capital,
Hello 2nd Quarter and Hello Baseball. Its Go time for both players and stat geeks...
It was a very good First Quarter for U.S. Equities. As you can see from the Year to Date charts below, risky sectors did well, but so did many lower risk sectors like Health Care, Consumer Staples, Utilities and MLPs. The Q1 goal as an asset allocator was to be fully invested, but not in Gold, Long Bonds, Emerging Markets and Apple.
Spring Economic Commentary
by Larry Maddox of Horizon Advisors,
The Fiscal Cliff We loudly went over the cliff and received a largely quiet and unexpected market reaction? Risk of rising interest rates After a 30 year period of declining interest rates, caution is in order. Our thoughts on portfolio fixed income positioning. The heightened awareness of uncertainty Despite lingering uncertainty investors should be committed to long term well diversified porftolios.
A Man in the Mirror
by Bill Gross of PIMCO,
Am I a great investor? No, not yet. To paraphrase Ernest Hemingways Jake in The Sun Also Rises, wouldnt it be pretty to think so? But the thinking so and the reality are often miles apart. When looking in the mirror, the average human sees a six-plus or a seven reflection on a scale of one to ten. The big nose or weak chin is masked by brighter eyes or near picture perfect teeth. And when the public is consulted, the vocal compliments as opposed to the near silent/ whispered critiques are taken as a supermajority vote for good looks.
Minor Crisis...Not Too Many Hurt
Cyprus proved, over the last two weeks, that markets often overlook the small stuff. Very few commentators we follow saw any of it coming and the theories that sprang up in the interim (Cyprus as vassal state to Russia, return to the Cypriot pound, imminent EU break up, twin euros in circulation, utter disaster for the economy, German intransigence and Schrecklichkeit) were absurd.
ProVise Bullets
As we began 2013 America was looking ahead to President Obamas second term, the passage of a tax bill that raised government revenue significantly, discovering that fourth quarter growth was virtually flat, corporate earnings that had only a few mild surprises to the upside and several to the downside, and finally, an increase in Social Security taxes of 2%. Then the sequester kicked in in early March, a band aid was used to patch the government together until the end of September, and we saw the nervousness the European markets, highlighted by Cyprus.
New Market Records, Quarterly Review, And What's Next
Last week, after gyrating for the past month, the S&P 500 was finally able to close in record territory. However, investors may not be feeling the joy in their pocketbooks just yet; when inflation is factored in, it becomes clear that the US stock market is still in the extended cyclical bear cycle which started in 2000.
We Should Already Have Learned How This Will End
by John Hussman of Hussman Funds,
The bear market losses that complete each market cycle have different catalysts. Some feature recession, some feature inflation, some feature credit events, but nearly all feature a spike in risk premiums from levels that have become both low and complacent. Thats the underlying risk that overvalued, overbought, overbullish, rising-yield conditions have reliably identified over time.
Market Resilience
After a stellar first quarter performance from US stock markets, which showed impressive resilience to continued headwinds, a pullback is certainly possible but we dont suggest investors who need to add to allocations wait. In a relative world, the US stock market continues to look like an attractive place to invest, although there may also be opportunities in Japan and Europe as well. The upcoming earnings season could tell the story for the market over the next couple of months, but we continue to advocate a long-term point of view and maintaining a diversified portfolio.
Emerging Markets Investment Bulletin
by Team of Bedlam Asset Management,
The increases in the portfolios net asset value continue easily to beat the hardly exacting returns from the index. The fund has gained 10.4% gross for the year to date (to 22 March), vs. a 3.0% rise for the MSCI Emerging Index. This outperformance (replicated over rolling 1- and 3-year periods) has been achieved by choosing investments irrespective of index country or sector weightings or where they are listed, so long as they derive the majority of income and profits from developing countries.
Results 3,451–3,500
of 3,702 found.
