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Search Results
21 results found.
Five Resolutions for 2014
by
David Kelly
of
J.P. Morgan Funds
,
12/20/13
Entering 2014, the global investment environment is as challenging as ever. After a super 2013 in returns, U.S. equities can no longer be considered inexpensive and yet still look attractive relative to the prospective returns on savings accounts and long-term bonds. Long-term bond yields are higher than a year ago but could still rise further as the Federal Reserve begins to reduce quantitative easing.
Default is unlikely, but there is more at stake
by
David Kelly and Andrew Goldberg
of
J.P. Morgan Funds
,
10/11/13
In a recent publication, (Investing through the Washington Mess) we outlined some of the dynamics at play regarding the ongoing debt limit debate in Washington. Latest developments notwithstanding, it is important to understand two key points: A default is very unlikely, and if the debt ceiling is not raised, simple prioritization to avoid default by continuing to pay interest would still inflict severe damage on the economy and markets, and could result in a credit rating action.
A Timetable for Ending QE
by
David Kelly
of
J.P. Morgan Funds
,
6/24/13
In a press conference following this weeks FOMC meeting, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke provided markets with a clearer understanding on how the Fed expects to phase out its current quantitative easing (QE) program. This timetable is justified both by economic progress and by the significant future costs which a too-large Fed balance sheet is likely to entail. Moreover, the timetable, while never previously explicitly outlined, should not have been a surprise to most market observers. Nevertheless, Mr. Bernankes words have been met by a sharp selloff across a wide range of financial a
The Labor Force Participation Puzzle
by
David Kelly
of
J.P. Morgan Funds
,
5/23/13
Slow growth and mediocre job creation have been common themes used to describe the U.S. economy in recent years, as both the labor market and broader economy failed to produce the snap-back rebound many expected following the deep recession seen in 2008 & 2009. Despite that lackluster growth, the unemployment rate has now fallen to 7.5% after peaking at 10% in October of 2009, a much faster decline than expected, given average employment growth of less than 125,000 per month.
A Whiff of Confidence
by
David Kelly
of
J.P. Morgan Funds
,
5/22/13
The single biggest on-going survey of consumer confidence in the United States is conducted by Rasmussen, who survey 500 consumers every night on their views of the U.S. economy and their personal finances. Since October 2007, there has not been a single month in which the index produced by this survey has exceeded 100. However, since the start of May it has averaged well above this level.
Strategy for a Second Gear Economy
by
David Kelly
of
J.P. Morgan Funds
,
4/22/13
American investors could be forgiven for feeling just a little confused. One week after the stock market posted its strongest first-quarter gains since 1998, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced the weakest monthly job growth in nine months. Real GDP growth was just 0.4% in the fourth quarter but appears to have been much stronger in the first. So is the economy getting stronger or weaker, how is the Federal Reserve likely to react to it and what, if anything, should investors do about it?
5 Reasons to Still Like (but not Love) Stocks
by
David Kelly
of
JP Morgan Funds
,
3/18/13
While investors have been justifiably worried that the combination of the big tax hikes of January and the Sequester in March could lead to an economic slump, so far the numbers are reassuring.
Understanding the Sequester
by
David Kelly, David Lebovitz
of
J.P. Morgan Funds
,
2/27/13
A recent survey conducted by The Hill found that only 36% of likely voters even knew what the term "sequester" meant. For the record, sequester in our current fiscal lexicon, refers to the $1.2 trillion of spending cuts spread out over the next 10 years that are set to commence on March 1, 2013. These cuts have the potential to impact both the markets and the economy. Although time still remains for a deal to be reached, it seems increasingly unlikely that this will actually occur, making it more likely that the effect of these spending cuts will be felt, at least temporarily.
Understanding the Sequester
by
David Kelly, David Lebovitz
of
J.P. Morgan Funds
,
2/22/13
A recent survey conducted by The Hill found that only 36% of likely voters even knew what the term sequester meant1. For the record, sequester in our current fiscal lexicon, refers to the $1.2 trillion of spending cuts spread out over the next 10 years that are set to commence on March 1, 2013. These cuts have the potential to impact both the markets and the economy. Although time still remains for a deal to be reached, it seems increasingly unlikely that this will actually occur, making it more likely that the effect of these spending cuts will be felt, at least temporarily.
October 2012 Monthly Commentary
by
David Kelly
of
J.P. Morgan Funds
,
11/7/12
A light flashed on in my car this morning, telling me that it was due for service. When I take it in, the mechanics will presumably check both the engine and the brakes before deciding on exactly what it is that I need to repair, replace or adjust. For investors, after nine months of ups and downs in markets, an investment strategy checkup is in order.
Searching for a Fiscal Ladder
by
David Kelly
of
J.P. Morgan Funds
,
8/16/12
As America begins to cool down after a long hot summer, the economy remains sluggish. Economic growth in the first half of the year is estimated to be less than 2%, reflecting continued business and consumer caution, tight lending standards and a shrinking government sector. This pace of growth, in turn, has produced a monthly average of just over 100,000 new jobs since February, leaving the unemployment rate marooned above 8%. For investors, however, the picture is not that bad.
A Plane on the Tarmac
by
David Kelly
of
JP Morgan Funds
,
8/7/12
A few weeks ago, I was sitting in a plane on the tarmac at La Guardia. We had pulled away from the gate, but the pilot had just come over in the intercom to let us know that we were number 35 in line for takeoff. Since we were going nowhere fast, I took out my laptop and tried to think of an analogy to describe the current state of the American economy. Then I realized that I was sitting in one.
Investing and the Euro Crisis
by
David Kelly
of
J.P. Morgan Funds
,
7/10/12
In the summer of 2012, the Euro Zone crisis continues to dominate financial markets as it has done over each of the past two summers. While the solution to the problem remains relatively straightforward, it requires a level of economic understanding, political courage and communication among policymakers that has been absent thus far. Without this, the crisis is likely to lurch forward with only a very slow and painful resolution.
Investing Through a Bumpy Ride
by
David Kelly
of
J.P. Morgan Funds
,
5/22/12
Its been a tough quarter so far. The U.S. economy is still growing, but not at a sufficient pace to excite anyone. Meanwhile, investors have had plenty to worry about including a fiscal cliff in the United States, a slowdown in China and, right now most ominously, further turmoil in Europe. Despite plenty to worry about, the realities of a U.S. economic recovery, very conservative allocations and relatively attractive valuations suggest that investors should still consider adding stocks and other risky assets to their portfolios.
The Time Between Too Early and Too Late: Monthly Commentary
by
David Kelly
of
J.P. Morgan Funds
,
4/16/12
After three years of market gains, a record year for corporate profits, and in the midst of solid monthly job gains, it is difficult to argue that it is still too early to get back to a more balanced approach to long-term investing. But some may now argue that it is too late and that perhaps the market has run too far. However, while there is always the risk of a correction, it is hard to see why March 2012 should represent a market peak.
Postcards from the Edge: Central Banking in the Age of Policy Extremes
by
David Kelly, David M. Lebovitz and Brandon D. Odenath
of
J.P. Morgan Funds
,
3/26/12
Major developed world central banks have taken extraordinary action over the last few years, leaving us in uncharted territory, close to the edge with little experience or history to rely on. The move to todays extremes was forced by the impotence of conventional monetary policy tools, as well as the breadth and depth of the crisis-causing issues. Uncertainty about the probabilities and range of possible outcomes resulting from current extremes has, and will, impact both capital markets and decision making in the real economy.
A Surer Footing
by
David Kelly
of
J.P. Morgan Funds
,
2/18/12
While the footing appears surer, the economic and market outlook remains very foggy suggesting that it is best to stick to the middle of the path and cautiously put one foot in front of the other.
Investing in 2012: Same Issues, More Extreme Valuations
by
David Kelly
of
J.P. Morgan Funds
,
1/13/12
When all was said and done, 2011 turned out to be the metaphorical equivalent of a roller coaster ride.There were quiet positives: The addition of 1.6 million jobs with the unemployment rate falling from 9.4% to 8.5%, a gradual improvement in light vehicle sales, the demise of Bin Laden and gathering economic momentum as the year drew to a close. There were scary negatives: soaring oil prices in reaction to the Arab Spring the human and economic toll of the Japanese tsunami the inability of Europe to deal with its complicated debt issue and the inability of Washington to deal with simpler one.
Housing: A Time to Buy
by
David Kelly and David Lebovitz
of
J.P. Morgan Funds
,
10/25/11
With the debt crisis in Europe still unresolved and economic growth in the U.S. sluggish, the capital markets continue to exhibit elevated volatility. However, this does not mean that no investment opportunities exist. Although the U.S. housing market remains extremely depressed, we believe that given current valuations and demographic dynamics, now may be the time to consider an investment in housing. Few financial manias in history have had as devastating an economic impact as the American real estate bubble of the 2000s.
Investing in an Environment of Extremes
by
David Kelly
of
J.P. Morgan Funds
,
10/12/11
The volatility of the last few months along with very negative headlines have caused a stream of assets to leave equity funds and move into cash and high-quality fixed income assets. However, this has left assets at extreme valuations. Indeed, by the end of the Q3, U.S. stocks were selling at lower prices than at the end of any quarter in 21 years. 10-year Treasury yields were running below the core year-over-year inflation rate for the first time in 31 years. Long-term investors may want to be somewhat over-weight in equities and under-weight in fixed income relative to a normal portfolio.
Europe!?
by
David Kelly
of
J.P. Morgan Funds
,
9/20/11
Investors might wonder why global markets care so much about European debt. After all, relative to the size of their economies, both the U.S. and Japan run bigger annual budget deficits and have accumulated more government debt than the Euro Zone as a whole. The answer lies in the fact that Europe is now too integrated to be immune to the problems in any one nation, but still too divided to do anything effective to deal with them. Because of this, a very serious budget problem in one nation can undermine confidence in government debt and the banking system across the entire continent.
21 results found.
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