We who inhabit the northern hemisphere will soon enter summer. Many would say summer is already with us – most schools are closed, and a general laziness is beginning to set in – especially for those in the “protected” class. For many of them, summer is a verb. They “summer” in the Hamptons, or Lake Tahoe, or somewhere in the tropics.

If you’re a serious investor—and because you’re reading this, I have to assume that you are—gold is looking more and more like a crucial trade. Only two weeks remain before United Kingdom voters decide on whether the country will continue to be a member of the European Union (EU) or become the first-ever to leave it. The “Brexit,” as it’s come to be known, is arguably the most consequential political event of 2016—perhaps even more so than the U.S. presidential election in November—with far-reaching implications.

With $2.6 trillion in assets under management, private equity has long been a core investment strategy for institutional investors across the globe.1 In fact, endowments alone have allocated ~21% of their portfolio to private equity investments.2 For many individual investors, however, private equity has historically been difficult to access and even more difficult to build a well diversified portfolio. Our belief is that one’s net worth should not dictate the availability or quality of investment options.

Markets have taken investors on a wild ride in 2016, with conflicting messages about expectations for economic growth and inflation. Through April, the S&P 500 Index had returned just more than 3%, erasing its 10% correction at the start of the year. Since a trough on Feb. 11, global and domestic equities have largely followed suit and rebounded to the levels of fourth-quarter 2015. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield hit a low for the year so far of 1.66% on that date, but ended April around 1.83% — although not without its own choppiness. The CBOE Volatility Index spiked in January and February, fell off in March and early April and then showed rising volatility again at the end of April. In our view, this has become a speculative market.

Janet Yellen and other Fed officials spent the last few weeks cautioning investors that a rate increase could be imminent owing to favorable economic data. Then came a weak jobs report. Will they or won’t they? Investors are left wondering how to weather the volatility that lies ahead.

This week’s economic calendar is the lightest in recent memory. After Monday, FedSpeak fans will be disappointed, since we are entering the quiet period before the next FOMC meeting. Like nature, pundits abhor a vacuum. To fill it they will be asking: Is the weak employment report big news for stocks?

Do you remember back in the early 80s when interest rates peaked at 15.25% and most everyone felt rates were moving higher, certainly not lower?  The fact is, it was the single best time in history to get bullish on bonds.

Sometimes you can go through that process and still end up bearish on almost everything. Richard Fisher seems to be in that camp. Asked in our final wrap-up panel Friday morning how his own portfolio was positioned, Fisher answered with one word: “Fetal.” And while his answer got a general laugh and a lot of pushback on the final panel from Niall Ferguson, who thinks he sees the beginning of an inflection point, it seemed a pretty good summary of the conference.

Yesterday we discussed what not to worry about, so today let’s take a look at what we, as investors, should be worrying about. In short, that would be a long-lived, substantial decline in the stock market—otherwise known as a bear market.

In 1992 I took a gap year from University. I traveled all over Europe and the Middle East while making London my base. There was no internet, no cell phones. We would send home hand written letters. The turnaround time to receive one back was about 3 weeks. I guess that makes you selective in what you write, only the important stuff!

Gold output across the globe hit an all-time high in 2015, climbing 1.8 percent to 3,211 tonnes. Much of this growth was led by Mexico, whose output increased double digits (18 percent) from 112 tonnes in 2014 to 133 tonnes last year. Indonesia grew 20 percent, Kazakhstan 29 percent.

Rick Rieder shares a chart showing why to get used to living in a low-growth world.

In recent decades, the Federal Reserve has become much more open. However, Fed communications have not always been received clearly by financial market participants. That has become problematic on a number of levels.

This month I have moved my attention to Washington. I am concerned that the Federal Reserve Bank is far too inactive, potentially leading to much more significant inflation down the road. I should stress that our European readers shouldn't worry too much, as the situation is fundamentally different on this side of the Atlantic, but rising U.S. inflation will obviously have at least some effect on European interest rates. Enjoy the read.

A widely circulated McKinsey report, Diminishing Returns: Why Investors May Need to Lower Their Expectations, makes the case that both stock and bond returns over 1985-2014 were exceptional and that investors should expect lower returns in the future. Will investors who think that 3% to 5% savings rates will get them close to their goals be disappointed?

Just a few decades ago, a challenge to becoming a fashion designer in China was that most people equated that to being a seamstress. But in China's burgeoning world of fashion, local designers now seek to replace the mantra of “Made in China” with “Designed in China.”

Coaches tell athletes that if they still have any energy left when they head back into the locker room when the game is over, they haven’t played hard enough. You’re supposed to leave it all on the field. That’s pretty much how I feel right now, so I don’t have a lot of energy to write a new letter. But thankfully, the comments we received from my May 15 letter, “Life on the Edge,” were among the best we’ve ever had. So I am going to reproduce them and maybe add a few responses of my own in between.

With negative yields and financial experimentation ongoing and the world still dependent on monetary stimulus, Portfolio Manager Charlie Dreifus sees high-quality, inexpensive, and dividend-growing businesses as the best choice in a still challenging environment.

According to the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE), the TPP “will increase annual real incomes in the United States by $131 billion, or 0.5 percent of GDP, and annual exports by $357 billion, or 9.1 percent of exports, by 2030.” For all member nations, the deal is expected to add $492 billion in real income.

We believe that Billy Joel is perhaps the most preeminent singer/songwriter of the U.S. baby-boom generation. Art, like Billy Joel’s music, has a tendency to mirror culture and economics. Thanks to his recent tour in the U.S., we were reminded of how four of Billy’s greatest hits speak to our current circumstances in the stock market and give incredible advice about how to behave as investors over the next ten years.

Sometimes it is good to sit back, reflect, recharge and then, once again, drive forward.  I pulled open a drawer and found, tucked at the bottom of a pile, a few notes I wrote down many years ago.  Notes from Mom…  I wanted to remember her.

This is a slightly expanded version of a letter that I have already sent to those who will be attending next week’s Strategic Investment Conference in Dallas. It covers the agenda in detail and will give you an idea of how I go about putting a conference together and what I’m trying to learn from the speakers. If this is of no interest to you, just skip it and go to the end where I will share some brief impressions from my time in Abu Dhabi.

Progressively more companies of dubious value creation have emerged which choke off healthy economic growth just as weeds do. The ultimate cause has been disjointed economic policy which often undermines the natural strengths of capitalism, free markets, and the rule of law.

Something’s gotta give. The global growth environment remains subpar — stable but at a disappointingly sluggish pace. Central bankers, where possible, continue to ease policy, but the financial market reaction is increasingly unpredictable. In this environment, the predominant theme this year has been a bounce back in the most beaten-down assets — including commodities and emerging markets.

Strange are the times when a third of all government debt around the world carries a negative yield, and yet such is the case today. From Japan to eurozone countries, investors are faced with the tough decision of accepting subzero yields, doing nothing—or seeking other so-called “safe haven” options. Many have rediscovered gold, and as I pointed out earlier this week, demand for the yellow metal as an investment just had its best first quarter ever, with near-record inflows into gold ETFs.

Global CIO Jeff Hussey shares 5 of the best questions we hear from clients considering multi-asset investing providers.

Job growth may be slowing, but when put in a broader context, it may also be at the height of its new potential. In last week’s Weekly Economic Commentary, “Yet Another Disconnect,” we wrote that according to several Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, monthly job gains as low as 125,000 per month in the U.S. would be enough to tighten the labor market, take up slack in the economy, and push up wages and ultimately inflation.

The most successful athletes and artists must spend hours practicing. But it’s not just LeBron James, Yo-Yo Ma and Bruce Springsteen who benefit from regular, focused practice. A recent conversation with a leading researcher on peak performance highlighted how advisors benefit from some of the same principles of focused practice.

A calmer tone prevailed across markets in April despite major central banks choosing to pause from adding substantial support. Mixed economic data underscored a tepid fundamental backdrop. The market rally continued in April, though underlying sentiment may have cooled more than the rally suggested.

This week’s economic calendar includes some key data on the housing market and few other major reports. The debate about the strength of the U.S. economy continues. The housing market is an important contributor to the economy. As we enter the key season for real estate many will be asking: Is it Springtime for housing?

This year’s first quarter is one for the history books. Not only did gold appreciate at its fastest pace in 30 years, but demand for the yellow metal was the strongest it’s ever been on record. Let me repeat that: the strongest it has ever been. Demand surged 21 percent from the same period a year ago, according to the latest World Gold Council (WGC) report. Most of this demand was driven by investment, with net inflows into gold ETFs reaching 363.7 tonnes, a seven-year high.

Our interview with Bloomberg’s ETF expert on his new book: what’s next in ETFs, how investors will find performance in the future and why smart beta is a “very big deal.”

Did you pull out of high-yield bonds when the year began, and miss the recent rally? If so, don’t worry. We still see opportunities in high-yield and other high-income assets around the globe.

At the beginning of each month, I like to look at equity market valuations. The stock market moved higher in April, yet for the fourth quarter in a row, corporate earnings were down. The good news about market valuations is that they can tell us a great deal about the annualized returns we are likely to get over the coming 10 years. The bad news is they tell us little about returns over the coming two years.

The past five years have been challenging for long-term value-based asset allocation. We do not believe this constitutes a paradigm shift, dooming such strategies in the future. The basic driver for long-term value working historically has been the excessive volatility of asset prices relative to their underlying fundamental cash flows, and recent history does not show any evidence of that changing. Outperforming the markets given that pattern requires either betting that the excessive swings will reverse over time or accurately predicting what those excessive swings will be. The former strategy amounts to long-term value-based investing, while the latter requires outpredicting others as to both what surprises will hit the markets and how the markets will react to them. Our strong preference is to focus on long-term value, despite the inevitable periods of tough performance that strategy will entail.

Incoming economic data offered markets little to cheer about in April ahead of the Fed’s third meeting of 2016. The price of oil rose more than 20% while the U.S. dollar edged lower for the third straight month.

In mid-January we felt compelled to send out a blast-email to our clients based on the volume of calls and concerns related to the bouts of volatility which roiled stock markets the first few weeks of the year. We certainly empathize with our clients’ very real concerns. Our empathy stems from the fact that in today’s hyper-connected world with media outlets “screaming” headlines to attract eyeballs, it is nearly impossible to separate fact from narrative.

The macro data from the past month continues to point to positive but sluggish growth. On balance, the evidence suggests the imminent onset of a recession is unlikely. That said, recent data was on the weak end. For example, employment growth was 1.9% yoy versus 2% or more during most of 2015. Retail sales was 0.9% yoy versus more than 2% during most of 2015. New home sales growth was 5%, but the peak in monthly sales was more than a year ago (February 2015). We will be watching closely to see if flattening growth persists or expands to other indicators over the next months.

I believe investors’ fears of a socialist Bernie Sanders presidency, not to mention negative interest rates, have driven a lot of gold’s recent momentum, more so than the idea of a Trump presidency.

In my previous articles, I’ve given advice on how to dress and use gestures to give an effective presentation. But the underlying key to being a great speaker is not to focus on yourself; it is to anticipate what the audience wants from you – and give it to them. Here’s how to do that.

Here is what happened in the most-followed conversations on APViewpoint last week.

According to the World Economic Forum, the United States has achieved a new TOP 10 ranking. Tell us what we’ve won Bob.

He sure feels like he’s heavy.  From The Wall Street Journal this morning, “U.S. Growth Starts Year in Familiar Rut.”  “A sharp pullback in business investment and weak global demand dragged down an already-lackluster U.S. economy in the opening months of 2016, the latest setback in a bumpy expansion entering its seventh year.”  That marked the economy’s worst performance in two years.

It can be difficult to adjust to the end of a good run. For years following the financial crisis of 2008, investors benefited from a rally in financial markets facilitated in part by expansionary policies of the Federal Reserve and other central banks around the globe.

As the only pure silver mining company, Silver Wheaton couldn’t have been founded during a more opportune time. The commodities boom was still young. I remember that when the idea was shared with me, what I found most attractive was that it had virtually no competition. Franco-Nevada, which had been acquired by Newmont in 2001, wouldn’t be spun off for three more years. It was a no-brainer to put capital in this new endeavor.

Although high profits can certainly help an economy, persistently high profits can be a sign of reduced competition and an impaired ability to grow.

The beginning of 2016 started in an emotional frenzy, as world markets dropped sharply out of the gates on fears of a sputtering world economy, plummeting commodity prices, a stubbornly hawkish Federal Reserve, and a decelerating earnings backdrop. The violence of the move in January was stunning, and by early February the number of world markets that had fallen more than 20% from their highs clearly argued that a bear market across the globe was taking place.

In February 1990, the Voyager 1 space probe reached the outer edge of our solar system. NASA commanded it to take a last image of Earth from 3.7 billion miles away. The planet is only a small speck from that distance.

As we move through 2016, the Horsemen of the geopolitical, economic, and social apocalypse are on the march.