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First Quarter Market Commentary
by The CCR Wealth Management Investment Committee of CCR Wealth Management, 5/6/16
In mid-January we felt compelled to send out a blast-email to our clients based on the volume of calls and concerns related to the bouts of volatility which roiled stock markets the first few weeks of the year. We certainly empathize with our clients’ very real concerns. Our empathy stems from the fact that in today’s hyper-connected world with media outlets “screaming” headlines to attract eyeballs, it is nearly impossible to separate fact from narrative.

Some Signs of Slowing Growth
by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch, 5/6/16
The macro data from the past month continues to point to positive but sluggish growth. On balance, the evidence suggests the imminent onset of a recession is unlikely. That said, recent data was on the weak end. For example, employment growth was 1.9% yoy versus 2% or more during most of 2015. Retail sales was 0.9% yoy versus more than 2% during most of 2015. New home sales growth was 5%, but the peak in monthly sales was more than a year ago (February 2015). We will be watching closely to see if flattening growth persists or expands to other indicators over the next months.

This Election Year, It’s Not Just Trump Investors Should Worry About
by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors, 5/6/16
I believe investors’ fears of a socialist Bernie Sanders presidency, not to mention negative interest rates, have driven a lot of gold’s recent momentum, more so than the idea of a Trump presidency.

Tips to Avoid Presentation Disasters (Part 4)
by Dan Solin, 5/3/16
In my previous articles, I’ve given advice on how to dress and use gestures to give an effective presentation. But the underlying key to being a great speaker is not to focus on yourself; it is to anticipate what the audience wants from you – and give it to them. Here’s how to do that.

Last Week’s Top APViewpoint Conversations
by Marianne Brunet, 5/3/16
Here is what happened in the most-followed conversations on APViewpoint last week.

Why $19 Trillion In Debt IS A Problem
by Lance Roberts of Real Investment Advice, 5/3/16
According to the World Economic Forum, the United States has achieved a new TOP 10 ranking. Tell us what we’ve won Bob.

On My Radar: He Ain’t Heavy, He’s My Brother
by Steve Blumenthal of CMG Capital Management Group, 5/2/16
He sure feels like he’s heavy.  From The Wall Street Journal this morning, “U.S. Growth Starts Year in Familiar Rut.”  “A sharp pullback in business investment and weak global demand dragged down an already-lackluster U.S. economy in the opening months of 2016, the latest setback in a bumpy expansion entering its seventh year.”  That marked the economy’s worst performance in two years.

Altitude Adjustment: Investing During a Period of Lower Returns and Higher Volatility
by Mihir Worah, Geraldine Sundstrom of PIMCO, 5/2/16
It can be difficult to adjust to the end of a good run. For years following the financial crisis of 2008, investors benefited from a rally in financial markets facilitated in part by expansionary policies of the Federal Reserve and other central banks around the globe.

Silver Wheaton: The Ultimate Streaming Service
by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors, 5/1/16
As the only pure silver mining company, Silver Wheaton couldn’t have been founded during a more opportune time. The commodities boom was still young. I remember that when the idea was shared with me, what I found most attractive was that it had virtually no competition. Franco-Nevada, which had been acquired by Newmont in 2001, wouldn’t be spun off for three more years. It was a no-brainer to put capital in this new endeavor.

Fantasy Island: The Unexpected Consequences of High Profits
by David Robertson of Arete Asset Management, 4/29/16
Although high profits can certainly help an economy, persistently high profits can be a sign of reduced competition and an impaired ability to grow.

Pinnacle’s Q2 Market Review
by Rick Vollaro of Pinnacle Advisory Group, 4/28/16
The beginning of 2016 started in an emotional frenzy, as world markets dropped sharply out of the gates on fears of a sputtering world economy, plummeting commodity prices, a stubbornly hawkish Federal Reserve, and a decelerating earnings backdrop. The violence of the move in January was stunning, and by early February the number of world markets that had fallen more than 20% from their highs clearly argued that a bear market across the globe was taking place.

Welcome to the Pale Gray Dot
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics, 4/28/16
In February 1990, the Voyager 1 space probe reached the outer edge of our solar system. NASA commanded it to take a last image of Earth from 3.7 billion miles away. The planet is only a small speck from that distance.

A Gold Revaluation Could Transform Your Financial Status – Overnight
by David Smith of Money Metals Exchange, 4/28/16
As we move through 2016, the Horsemen of the geopolitical, economic, and social apocalypse are on the march.

Technically Speaking: Time To Sell Oil/Energy?
by Lance Roberts of Real Investment Advice, 4/27/16
Over the last several weeks, in both the daily blog and weekly newsletter, I have been laying out the technical case for a breakout above the downtrend. As I stated, while such a breakout would demand a subsequent increase in equity risk in portfolios, I didn’t like it.

FOMC Faqs: When Doves Cry?
by John Canally of LPL Financial, 4/27/16
As the third of eight Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings of 2016 approaches later this week, the market and the Federal Reserve (Fed) again remain deeply divided over the timing and pace of Fed rate hikes.

Sign O’ the Times: Sell in May and Go Away?
by Liz Ann Sonders of Charles Schwab, 4/26/16
As most readers know, I always title my reports with a fitting song title. Sadly, this year I’ve opted to choose one to honor a fallen music legend, like David Bowie and Glen Frey. This week, it’s an ode to the late-great Prince—a life gone too soon.

It’s Waayyy Too Early to Take Profits on Gold & Silver
by Clint Siegner of Money Metals Exchange, 4/26/16
It was no fun investing in precious metals for most of 2011-2015, but the past few months have sure been a blast for buy-and-hold investors. Silver prices are up 22.5% year to date, and gold isn’t far behind.

Bruce Greenwald: The Crisis Bigger than Global Warming
by Robert Huebscher, 4/26/16
Manufacturing is dying on a global basis, according to Bruce Greenwald, and its collapse will mean the demise of economies – like China – that are highly dependent on exported goods. Contrary to what Robert Gordon and others have contended, productivity is growing in the manufacturing sector – roughly twice as fast as the demand for those products. If third-world countries don’t adjust their economies to reflect this reality, Greenwald said it would be a “crisis greater than global warming.”

On My Radar: Glut – The U.S. Economy… in the Age of Oversupply
by Steve Blumenthal of CMG Capital Management Group, 4/26/16
Today, my plan was to highlight two of my favorite analysts, Dr. Lacy Hunt and Dr. Gary Shilling.  But that plan has changed and importantly, I believe, what I share this week can give us a better understanding of the structural issues we face.  And how they might be fixed.  Listening to Bloomberg’s Tom Keene early this week, I stood quiet as he interviewed Daniel Alpert.

Earnings Remain Key to Equity Forecast
by Robert Doll of Nuveen Asset Management, 4/25/16
Equities climbed yet again last week, with the S&P 500 Index rising 0.5%. Corporate earnings were mixed, and the biggest market story was ongoing strength in commodities, particularly oil and metals. Bank stocks rallied strongly for a second week, while defensive market segments struggled to keep pace.

Confusion Reigns
by Carl Kaufman, Simon Lee, Bradley Kane of Osterweis Capital Management, 4/25/16
Osterweis Capital Management Fixed Income Outlook April 2016

The New All-Time High in SPY That Was Considered Impossible
by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch, 4/20/16
SPY made a new all-time high on Tuesday despite falling margin debt, the end of QE, negative household fund flows, flat profit growth and a host of other reasons. In other words, exactly as a rationale and objective investor should have expected.

Negative Interest Rates: Powerful Out-Of-The-Box Thinking or Insanity?
by Wendy Stojadinovic of Cleary Gull, 4/20/16
The fight against currency appreciation and deflation explains negative short term rates, but what explains why longer term bonds have negative yields?

Tips to Avoid Presentation Disasters (Part 2)
by Dan Solin, 4/19/16
Here are two more suggestions for giving a powerful presentation and avoiding the disasters I often see inflicted on undeserving audiences.

What Should You Say About the DOL’s Ways?
by Wendy Cook, 4/19/16
We should think of the DOL ruling as a modest victory for investors, and that, by and large, we should communicate it as such.

Permanently High Plateaus Have Poor Precedents
by John Hussman of Hussman Funds, 4/19/16
Speculators seem willing to imagine that the Fed has created a permanently high plateau, but historically-informed investors should know better.

On My Radar: First, Do No Harm
by Steve Blumenthal of CMG Capital Management Group, 4/19/16
My 18-year-old son, Matthew, came to me asking about how the economy works.  This summer he will be an intern and task one prior to his start date is to read “How the Economic Machine Works.”  There is much we can learn from history and it makes sense to study the research from some of the brightest amongst us.  From there, he and I will begin a dialogue.

Weighing the Week Ahead: Time to Sell the News?
by Jeff Miller of NewArc Investments, Inc., 4/19/16
The economic calendar is moderate. Fed Heads are mostly on the bench. The Doho oil conference (combining OPEC and non-OPEC producers) will be the first major news for the week ahead. Markets have already anticipated the outcome, just as they have the trend of first- quarter earnings. It is a classic test of the theme: Is it time to sell the news?

If You’re Not Following this Energy Trend, You’re Being Left in the Dust
by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors, 4/15/16
This week our office was visited by my friend, investor and author Gianni Kovacevic, who is at the halfway point of a cross-country book tour to promote the latest edition of “My Electrician Drives a Porsche?” As part of the tour, he’s driving a Tesla Model S from Boston to Palo Alto, California—Tesla’s hometown—to demonstrate the potential of green energy and spread his message that “the future is now.”

On My Radar: A Powerful and Reliable Determinant of Long-Term Investment Return
by Steve Blumenthal of CMG Capital Management Group, 4/13/16
In my view, the bet today comes down to this: you believe the Fed can hold the market up (aka “the Fed Put”), you believe politicians can accomplish structural reform and you believe that the same holds true in Europe, China and Japan.  Essentially, “whatever it takes” wins.  Alternatively, you believe that extremely high equity market valuations matter, excessive debt is problematic and that it is ultimately impossible for central bankers, try as they might, to repeal economic business cycles.

Three Tips to Avoid Presentation Disasters
by Dan Solin, 4/12/16
I give a lot of presentations and attend many conferences where I have the opportunity to hear talks given by a diverse group of speakers. I’m still honing my presentation skills, but here are three tips to avoid the big mistakes I often see.

ZIRPs and NIRPs and Unintended Consequences
by Brooks Ritchey of Franklin Templeton Investments, 4/12/16
There are countless examples in history, some more hubristic than others, in which man’s efforts to address a problem or control a system have resulted in miserable failure?regardless of best-laid plans or intentions.

Phyllis Borzi, Savior of Tax Deferral
by Kerry Pechter, 4/12/16
Now that the DOL has issued the final version of its much-anticipated “fiduciary rule,” let’s pause to ponder the meaning of what Phyllis Borzi, the assistant secretary for employee benefits security at the DOL, and her legal team have done.

What Will Drive the Next Emerging-Market Supercycle?
by Sammy Suzuki of AllianceBernstein, 4/11/16
After lagging for years, emerging equities are back in the winner’s corner. Investors are wondering if the stocks are nearing a durable turn for the better. It’s worth thinking about how the next upcycle may unfold.

Recession: Your Time is Gonna Come … But Not Yet
by Liz Ann Sonders of Charles Schwab, 4/11/16
Two events recently triggered renewed concerns about a U.S. economic recession. The first was the continued deterioration in Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model—now down to only 0.1% for expected first quarter real gross domestic product (GDP) growth, after being as high as 2.7% in early February. The second was the pronouncement of a pending “very massive recession” by presidential candidate Donald Trump. Shortly after the latter I tweeted that there was little indication we were headed into a “very massive recession,” and boy did that elicit a very massive response from fellow tweeters. Many agreed that a severe recession was unlikely; but at least as many took the Trump side of the argument—with much “passion” I might add.

Mile-High Merger: Alaska Airlines Buys Virgin America, Expanding Market Reach
by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors, 4/9/16
The $2.6 billion deal, awaiting shareholder approval in June, would create the fifth-largest U.S. airline by traffic and result in a much more competitive player, especially on the West Coast. (Alaska is based in Seattle, Virgin in San Francisco.) According to the Wall Street Journal, Alaska’s annual revenue could grow 27 percent because of the deal.

Fed's Janet Yellen Does An About-Face On Interest Rates
by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management, 4/6/16
On Tuesday of last week, Fed Chair Janet Yellen delivered a surprising speech at the Economic Club of New York. Back in December, the Fed raised short-term interest rates for the first time in over eight years and told us to expect four more hikes in the Fed Funds rate in 2016.

90% Psychological, 10% Logical
by Sam Stewart of Wasatch Global Investors, 4/6/16
So here we are with very modest global economic growth, seemingly excessive gains in stocks over the past several years, potentially flawed monetary policies around the world, and mediocre readings on the sentiment indicators I follow. Although this may sound like a prescription for flat—or possibly even falling—stock prices going forward, I continue to be the “nervous bull” that I’ve been for quite a few years.

Corrective Action Continues – But, A Rally May Still Be Seen
by Avi Gilburt of ElliottWaveTrader.net, 4/6/16
have said many times before that trying to track every twist and turn within corrective action is like trying to throw Jell-O for distance . . . you just won’t be able to get it all.

Greater Gradualism for the Greater Good
by Kristina Hooper of Allianz Global Investors, 4/5/16
The case for financial repression remains self-evident based on Fed Chair Yellen’s dovish comments last week, says US Investment Strategist Kristina Hooper. In this environment, investors need to be vigilant about the potential for higher inflation.

The Positives Outweigh the Negatives for the U.S. Economy
by Robert Doll of Nuveen Asset Management, 4/4/16
The U.S. equity rally resumed last week with the S&P 500 Index climbing 1.8%. Although expectations for the upcoming corporate earnings season are low, investors chose to focus on the positives. Specifically, investors reacted to dovish comments made by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen in her speech at the Economics Club of New York, which counteracted some more hawkish comments made by Fed officials the previous week. Other asset classes came under pressure, including commodities and oil, causing some skepticism about the recent rebound. The oil sell-off was due to heightened doubts about the ability of major producers to formalize a production freeze agreement.

Industrial Production: Those Ugly Annual Benchmark Revisions and the Heightened Risk of Recession
by Doug Short, 4/4/16
The big economic news on Friday was the Department of Labor's Employment Report for March. The mainstream press focused on two numbers: the 215K new jobs and the 5% unemployment rate. Over the next few days we'll dig in a bit deeper to look at some of the underlying employment demographics, which in many ways give a greater understanding of employment conditions. But the much more significant economic news on Friday was the Federal Reserve's noon release of the disturbingly negative annual benchmark revisions to Industrial Production.

On My Radar: Fed Stuck Between Three Rocks and a Hard Place
by Steve Blumenthal of CMG Capital Management Group, 4/4/16
“Now these monetary institutions are expected to continue producing miracles. But their ability to repeatedly pull new rabbits out of their policy hats has been stretched to an increasingly unsustainable degree.” -Mohamed A. El-Erian, The Only Game in Town

What a Quarter! What’s Next?
by Liz Ann Sonders, Brad Sorensen and Jeffrey Kleintop of Charles Schwab, 4/2/16
The first quarter was the proverbial roller coaster, with stocks experiencing extreme volatility, but ultimately ending up back where they started. We continue to believe U.S. stocks are in a secular bull market; but in a more mature phase which will be dotted with volatility and pullbacks. Corporate earnings likely need to recover before stocks can move demonstrably higher. More clarity from the Fed and a better political environment would help, but both seem unlikely in the near term. However, a more dovish tone from the Fed has aided in some recent dollar weakening, which has boosted emerging markets’ performance. While it is an encouraging development, stay disciplined and diversified as we watch to see if global growth can improve.

First Quarter Odds and Ends
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 4/2/16
Four months after terrorist attacks struck the streets of Paris, Europe was hit again, at its heart – Brussels. The sophistication of the attacks amid tightened security has once again raised questions around intelligence-sharing across Europe’s borders, and added fuel to the migration debate.

April Fools in March
by Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital, 4/1/16
It may be almost impossible to underestimate the gullibility of professional Fed watchers. At least Lucy van Pelt needed to place an actual football on the ground to fool poor Charlie Brown. But in today's high stakes game of Federal Reserve mind reading, the Fed doesn't even have to make a halfway convincing bluff to make the markets look foolish.

A Different Take on Brexit
by Team of Absolute Return Partners, 4/1/16
With 2 1/2 months to go before the Brexit referendum it is anybody's guess what the outcome will be. In this month's Absolute Return Letter we take the rare opportunity to comment on a political event. Regardless of where you reside, the result is likely to be important for you. Like most things in life, the choices are not black and white. Enjoy the read.

The Rise of the Machines—Volatility’s Back
by Bob Rice of Neuberger Berman, 3/31/16
The markets had a great run until last August—years of rising prices across nearly every asset class. Unfortunately, long-term investing doesn’t stay that easy.

March Employment Report Preview
by John Canally of LPL Financial, 3/31/16
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) of the U.S. Department of Labor will release its always widely anticipated Employment Situation report for March 2016 on Friday, April 1, 2016.

The Archetypes of American Foreign Policy: A Reprise
by Bill O’Grady of Confluence Investment Management, 3/31/16
In this report, we briefly describe and discuss the four archetypes of American foreign policy as detailed in Walter Russell Meade’s book, Special Providence. By using these archetypes of American foreign policy, one can more easily anticipate how a candidate might act if they were to occupy the Oval Office. With presidential elections less than eight months away, I hope this discussion will assist readers in examining the candidates and their potential foreign policy positions, using these archetypes as a guide. The report concludes with my characterization of the current leading candidates.
Results 3,051–3,100 of 4,316 found.